How to identify the true and false needs of product managers

To identify the value of a demand, we can eliminate false demand through demand classification, and further analyze it layer by layer with the latitude of market and business model:

The types of requirements can be divided into four types. Check them one by one to confirm whether the Idea is a false requirement.

Further confirm the nature of the demand, whether it is worth doing;

To measure the market size, we must eat the biggest piece;

Verify the business model and ensure a good liquidity space;

Determine the type of demand

Classification is a cognitive process. I feel confused, which helps me get rid of my hazy brain. Product managers often talk about meeting users' needs in their work, but they don't spend enough time thinking. Through the classification of requirements, identify the types of requirements in turn, and abandon them as soon as possible if they are false requirements:

1. Apparent demand

Users are well aware of their own problems, are using similar competitive products, or explore a set of solutions themselves. Use two examples to illustrate:

Example 1:

You are considering buying a school district recently, and the children are anxiously waiting for school. But I didn't have time to go to the offline intermediary to understand the housing situation, so I went home to surf the Internet at night and solved this problem by using the existing product "SouFun xx" and found a new home in Beijing.

Example 2:

You are a lecturer in a college, and you have to assign homework every time after class. It is too slow and troublesome for students to copy their homework to your computer one by one. So you thought of sending you an email. Although you encountered a problem, you found a solution yourself.

Cover up demand

Users know their real needs, but they don't want to tell others what they think directly.

Example 1:

You made an investment recently and made a lot of money. You always want to buy something to treat yourself. So my wife and I went to the BMW 4S shop and bought a 7-Series. The day before, my wife complained that the car was too high-profile, but vanity overcame everything. If you have money, buy a brand that matches your identity. Soon I met my colleagues at work and talked about the reasons for buying and choosing BMW. You replied without thinking, "The main reason is that this car has good performance and is particularly comfortable to drive."

3. Potential demand

Users can't clearly affirm and specify their own needs, and often users show injustice, dissatisfaction, anxiety and complaints about such needs.

Example 1: You just moved, cleaned your room in the afternoon and bought a pack of cigarettes in the supermarket in the community. When I asked if there was any time, I shook my head and complained about going to the big supermarket 10 minutes away from home.

4. False demand

After your product goes online, users don't buy it. This problem is attributed to incorrect requirements collection methods:

(1) Don't treat your own needs as those of users, go out and communicate with real users.

Example 1: I always forget the time when reading a book, so I consider adding a clock function to the bookmark so that I can also look at the time when reading a book. In this way, it is conceivable that most people will not buy this product, because it is a personal demand, not a user demand.

(2) the correct way of communication.

Don't ask users,' What do you think of this demand? ",as long as it is a product that has improved in some way, the user's usual answer is" quite good ". Users will not support the improvement of products in the direction of truth, goodness and beauty, but after the product is launched, whether to buy it is another matter. To find the demand that users are willing to pay for it, it is necessary to ask users more about the objective history. "Have you ever encountered similar problems? Is the problem solved by competing products or in your own way? If not, does this problem bring distress and to what extent? (If the demand is investigated, it is good for users to feedback this demand, but users do not use competing products or seek solutions to similar problems, and there is no headache. It is recommended to think twice before you act, which is likely to be a false demand)

Example 1: You are very happy, because you have come up with a good idea to modularize the bicycle and install a detachable motor and battery, which greatly improves the speed and adaptability of the bicycle. You find many users and ask, "What do you think of this modular bike? Is this demand good? After listening to your description, the user is really good, with many functions and fast speed. Then he took a group of engineers to work hard for three months, and when he handed over the finished product to the user for payment, he said it was unnecessary because there was no such demand.

(3) The solution to the problem should be put forward by the product manager, not the user.

New product managers are used to asking users what they think they should do, and the result is putting the cart before the horse. You are a product expert, users ask questions, and you put forward reasonable solutions to discuss with them according to all aspects of in-depth thinking. How reliable is the solution proposed by a user in just a few minutes?

Example 1: Find the user and ask, "What kind of computer do you want?" The user thought about it and gave the plan "Be quick, because I want to play games; The display effect is good, as long as you can hear the sound, there is not much demand in other aspects. " You quickly launched your own product, because the performance requirements are very high, so the notebook is heavy and unsightly, and users are not willing to pay.

Confirm the attributes of the requirements.

The types of requirements are classified, and incorrect requirements that cannot be completed are identified. Now we need to further explore the demand attribute and understand how valuable it is. Security, communication, weather, meals, marriage, air tickets and other needs, some need time to do, but the utilization rate is low after going online. Therefore, in the early stage, we should find the fattest and biggest point to do, and check the attributes of our own needs, whether they meet the strong and frequent needs, and at which level of Maslow's theory (the lower the demand, the greater the amount that needs to be met, and the higher the demand, the higher the value that may be generated after meeting):

Strong demand and weak demand are inseparable from it, just like people want to drink water; No, it doesn't affect me much, such as knowing the weather.

Frequent demand and non-frequent demand have a high incidence, just like people have to eat every day; The incidence rate is low and people die.

Maslow's theory divides needs into five categories: physiological needs, security needs, love and belonging, respect and self-realization, which are arranged from low level to high level. Self-realization needs are followed by self-transcendence, but it is usually not a necessary level in Maslow's needs hierarchy, and most of them will integrate self-transcendence into self-realization needs.

If a person lacks food, safety, love and respect at the same time, then the demand for food is usually the strongest, and other needs are not so important. At this time, people's consciousness is almost completely occupied by hunger, and all their energy is used to get food. In this extreme situation, the whole meaning of life is to eat, and nothing else is important. Only by liberating people from the control of physiological needs can we have more advanced and socialized needs, such as security needs.

Measure the market size

The market determines the ceiling of the product. You need to estimate the market in advance after judging the authenticity and attributes of the demand. Market capacity forecast directly determines whether companies or investors should conduct innovative experiments and invest in this product. Many product managers ignore this point, judging that it is just needed and frequent demand (such as the demand of gay groups), and directly investing in development and sales, which eventually leads to tepid products. By collecting data, structured estimation can quickly get the corresponding results:

1. Collect data

The source of data may be a headache for some product managers. Below I list the common ways to get it:

Internal sources of the company, product department, operation department, management and internal data operation group.

Penguin Zhiku, IT Orange, iResearch, DCCI Internet Data Center, Alexa

Search for information subscriptions of foreign official website and the same industry (the market competition may not be great, but the profit model and functional definition of user groups are forward-looking and market trend-oriented).

Pay attention to the official forums and recruitment information of competitors and the information released by the company's financial report.

Industry media platforms (Tiger Sniff, 36Kr), related forums and QQ groups.

Ask each other directly about their own products, customer service consultation and technical questions and answers.

2. Data analysis

If you have collected all the data, congratulations. That's great. However, in many cases, there is a lack of latitude data and further estimation is needed. Through orderly steps, the quality of estimation can be guaranteed, and there will be no outrageous results:

Make clear the target of estimation, write down the name of the data you want to obtain clearly, and prevent the ending from being full of ambiguity. Example 1: You need to know how much money glasses can earn each year in China? ",the first clear is profit or total income?

Through the source method given above, get the corresponding data and collect as much relevant data as possible. Data 1: Professor Li Ling of the Health Development Research Center in China, Peking University released the National Health Vision Report at the seminar held by the center. Among the total population over 5 years old in China, there are about 500 million people suffering from myopia and hyperopia, of which the total number of myopia patients is about 450 million. Data 2: The average unit price of glasses is within 400 yuan, and the replacement speed is 1.5 years.

Conceive the equation, write down the relevant data you collected, and conceive a possible equation. [Number of nearsighted people in China] * [Unit price of glasses]/[Replacement period]

Considering marginalization, stop and think about whether there are other influencing factors that have not been considered, and further improve the equation to get more accurate data. After careful consideration, not all nearsighted people will wear glasses. Later, according to the data, about 50% people will wear glasses, so it needs to be optimized: [the number of nearsighted people in China] * [the proportion of wearing glasses after myopia] * [the unit price of glasses]/[the number of years to replace glasses].

Calculate the result, bring the known data into the equation for calculation, and take it step by step. (450 million * 50% * 400 yuan)/1.5 = 60 billion.

Review, review the calculated process, and don't make the final result very different because of one carelessness.

Regarding the blank market, product managers are often so excited about an undeveloped market that they start to work before they come and get to know it in depth, fearing that others will take it away. Pay attention to the waters where no one swims, not necessarily the blue ocean, but also the gutter, and think more about why (what are the obstacles? Still can't make money, this market is too small for others to look down upon? ) to prevent the high cost caused by market obstruction once it enters the research and development stage.