What are the signs of economic recession?

I think your problem may be attributed to two (1) usual economic recessions. Which industries are most negatively affected? Or which industries are the initial and key links of the chain affected by negative economic fluctuations. The chain of economic activities can be divided into upstream industries, midstream industries and downstream industries. It can also be divided into manufacturing industry (manufacturing industry is distributed in the middle and lower reaches) and service industry (supporting industries, such as software TMT industry, financial industry and logistics industry, all belong to service industry). "China's economy is characterized by investment-driven and manufacturing-led, so the middle reaches should be used as economic synchronization indicators, the downstream should be used as leading indicators, and the upstream should be similar lagging indicators." From the side, we can see the fluctuation and change of gross profit margin in the middle reaches, and at the same time, we can observe and verify the stages of economic recession, recovery, overheating and stagflation through the combination of volume and price in the upstream and downstream. The quality and characteristics of each economy are different, some are countries with large resources, some are countries with manufacturing industries, and some are countries with consumer services. Different degrees of endogenous and extroverted dependence of an economy will lead to different characteristics in different stages of the economic cycle. During the economic recession, the degree of negative impact and transmission is different for these countries with different industrial structures. The economic recession will also have two quite different stages, or develop in parallel in some economies. One is that the demand for B2B economy is shrinking, and the other is that it affects the unemployment rate, which in turn affects the shrinking demand for B2C economy. The former affects some basic industries in the economy, while the latter has a comprehensive impact on industries with different consumption attributes in the whole economy because of disposable income. All, first of all, we can judge the economic nature and industrial composition characteristics of a country; Then judge whether the industry is B2B or B2C. What factors affect the profitability of an industry in the whole economy? General economic activities are still influenced by downstream-midstream-upstream chain conduction; In the process of economic transformation, the service industry as a whole will be more flexible than the manufacturing industry. 2) In an economy experiencing recession, what signs and signals can be seen based on micro-knowledge prediction and real employment and unemployment data of different industries; A description of public consumption expenditure and trends, price index, inflation or deflation; Purchasing managers' index (description of industrial deflation and economic activities), energy (electricity, coal), new construction and completion of real estate have great influence on steel, cement, glass and automobile. The influence of the home appliance industry, and so on. Economic vitality index of transportation logistics; At the same time, we can observe the demand changes of optional consumer goods and essential consumer goods industries in downstream industries, the changes of gross profit margin and capacity utilization rate of some manufacturing industries in the middle reaches, the balance of loans and non-performing loans in financial and banking industries, the provision coverage ratio, and the interest guarantee multiple EBIT(DA)/ interest of manufacturing industries. Edited on 2016-10-09 at 20: 45? Li Ke-Ji Hui knows that Li Jia can say no to the crab demon. Amateur. This thing is complicated and confusing, and it is difficult to draw conclusions from a few simple phenomena. Professionals are the most sensitive. They can see the situation and data that others can't see and see their movements. It depends on the big investment banks and investors. They are the most sensitive. But they often have contradictory statements and insincere statements, but there are always clues. For example, the words and deeds of Buffett and Li Ka-shing. It is particularly important to point out that strategic investors represented by the two are often accurate, have a large amount of actions in advance, and have a high exposure rate, which is convenient for laymen to follow up. In addition, there are many economic indicators and indexes that indicate the economic situation, including interest rates, exchange rates and their change expectations. Among them, there are leading landmark indicators. For example, there is a Baltic dry bulk index BDI, which symbolizes the activity of marine shipping industry, that is, the activity of world trade. Its change is very important for judging the global economic recession and is a leading indicator with great guiding significance. At the level of a country, such as the loan default rate, its rise to a certain extent means that a large number of enterprises have problems in their operations and are facing bankruptcy, which is also a sign of debt crisis and economic crisis. In short, it will be clearer to watch the Sankei Shimbun and the news broadcast every day, especially to analyze the stories behind the news.