The industry suffered a huge loss of 40 billion yuan, and the flight attendant's salary fell to 2000 yuan ... The aviation industry is so difficult, how can it recover?

China, which took the lead in controlling the epidemic, has high hopes from the global aviation industry, and related international routes are also recovering.

In the past three months, pilot Li Wenqing has only flown once. Fly from Beijing to Shanghai on February 15 and return to Beijing on the same day. Unexpectedly, this ban is two or three months. "There is no class. It is expected that the next flight will be in the middle and late May. " Li Wenqing told Phoenix Weekly.

For the first time in more than six years, Li Wenqing has rested at home for such a long time. Accompanying children, doing housework and studying have become his main tasks in the past two months.

The salary of domestic pilots is basically calculated according to the basic salary+flight hour fee. The sudden reduction of flight time during the epidemic also means that the income is not as good as before. "When there is no epidemic, it is about 70 hours per month on average. Now the flight time is close to zero and the income has decreased by 3/4. " Although there is no pressure of mortgage and car loan, Li Wenqing's wife has just given birth to two children, and her income has plummeted, so she can only save some money.

Since the outbreak, the aviation industry has also been hit hard, and employees have naturally not been spared. According to data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, in the first quarter of 2020, the total loss of the whole industry was 39.82 billion yuan. Among them, airlines lost 33.62 billion yuan.

Such a large-scale loss was also reflected in a quarterly report released by major airlines a few days ago. China Southern Airlines, Air China and China Eastern Airlines lost 5.262 billion yuan, 4.805 billion yuan and 3.933 billion yuan respectively in the first quarter, down by 298.64%, 276.48% and 296.06% respectively.

Affected by the epidemic, it is not only domestic airlines that are in trouble, but the global aviation industry has to tighten its belts to live.

In the first half of this year, Zhang Minghao was the co-pilot of a civil aviation company. He originally planned to buy a house. After the outbreak of the epidemic, his flying time was greatly reduced, and the money he got was only the basic salary. "The salary is not guaranteed, and the house is afraid to buy." Zhang Minghao told Phoenix Weekly.

In March and April, Zhang Minghao only flew once, and spent most of his time at home in Harbin, exercising and reading books every day, bidding farewell to the working rhythm of flying for 4 days and resting 1 to 2 days. In a normal month, the flying time in Zhang Minghao is fifty or sixty hours per month.

"The salary is too small." In the last month or two, Zhang Minghao and his colleagues will spit on each other in the group. Originally, Zhang Minghao's monthly basic salary was about 654.38+0 million yuan, but he found that the company would deduct the basic salary through rest and other means. "This is actually equivalent to a salary cut in disguise." After the salary cut, the car loan of about 6,000 yuan per month still makes him feel a lot of pressure.

Zhang Minghao said that to make matters worse, a colleague bought a house with a loan of nearly 10 million yuan, and he had to pay a mortgage of 50,000 to 60,000 yuan every month. During the epidemic, after the income was greatly reduced, the mortgage was under pressure.

Dong was born in a family of civil aviation. He has been with the blue sky for ten years, and his parents also flew during SARS in 2003. After Wuhan announced the closure of the city, Dong's flight mission was often cancelled, which made him feel very helpless.

According to the original work arrangement, Dong usually carries out three or four domestic flights after three international flights. Around the beginning of February, international flights were almost grounded. At the beginning of February, March and April, Dong, like most of his colleagues, became a "housewife", taking care of children and doing housework became his main business, and the flight time was reduced by 2/3 compared with the original 90 hours/month.

In late April, Dong, who was really not idle, applied to go to Hohhot, which has more flights than Beijing. Dong intends to stay in Hohhot for two months before the epidemic prevention level in Beijing is reduced from level one to level two, so as not to be isolated. "In addition to increasing income, I am more worried about being unfamiliar with technology." Dong, who was born in a pilot's family, has a high sense of identity with his career. He was frightened by the long-term shutdown. "In order to ensure flight safety, we must always keep learning."

Like Dong, he and his colleagues recently discussed in the working group that they were worried that their flying skills would be rusty because of the epidemic. Li Wenqing Airlines also specially organized online courses to urge pilots to learn.

Unlike pilots who stay in a relatively safe cockpit, flight attendants who are in close contact with passengers not only have a higher risk of infection, but also have a greater impact on their economic situation. The salary composition of flight attendants is the same as that of pilots, but the basic salary of flight attendants is lower than that of pilots. A netizen who claimed to be a flight attendant on Zhihu said that "the hourly wage accounts for almost 90% of the salary. If you don't fly this month, you will be doomed to eat soil next month".

During the epidemic, many airline flight attendants broke out, and the salary was only about 2000 to 3000 yuan. Under the economic pressure, even flight attendants have switched to network anchors, but more employees can only wait for the epidemic to end and everything will return to normal.

Under the large-scale grounding, it is difficult not only for aviation practitioners, but also for airlines to bear huge losses. With the deadline for disclosure of A-share quarterly report, the outside world can also get a glimpse of the loss data of major airlines.

According to the data of the first quarterly report, the net profits of China Southern Airlines, Air China and China Eastern Airlines 10-3 were-5.262 billion yuan,-4.805 billion yuan and-3.933 billion yuan respectively, down by 298.64%, 276.48% and 296.06% respectively. Based on this calculation, the accumulated losses of the three major airlines are 654.38+04 billion yuan, and the average daily losses are 654.38+05.6 billion yuan. Based on a ticket 1.000 yuan, the losses of the three major airlines in one day can only be earned by selling 1.56 million tickets.

In addition, Shandong Airlines B, Jixiang Airlines, Spring Airlines and Huaxia Airlines lost 594 million yuan, 49,654.38+0 million yuan, 227 million yuan and 96 million yuan respectively, with losses of 65,438+0.843.45%, 222.73% and 65,438+0 respectively compared with the same period.

Behind the loss is the bleak reality of the industry. The data shows that in February 2020, the load factors of China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines and Air China were 50.28%, 47. 1 1% and 5 1.4% respectively. In March 2020, the load coefficients were 55.78%, 58. 16% and 56.8% respectively. Judging from the situation of the three major airlines, from February to March, the average passenger load factor was less than 60%. It is worth noting that with the relief of the epidemic, the passenger load factor is slowly recovering.

In contrast, the operating data of low-cost airlines with the slogan "Let everyone afford to fly" is better. In February and March of 2020, the passenger load factor of Spring Airlines was 63.69% and 60.92% respectively. The load factor of Jixiang Airlines in March also remained above 60%.

Under difficult circumstances, major airlines have tried their best to maintain cash flow. Phoenix Weekly read the announcements of various airlines. From March to April, Air China raised 7.5 billion yuan in the form of ultra-short-term financing bonds and corporate bonds. China Eastern Airlines was allowed to publicly issue corporate bonds with a face value of no more than 654.38+05.4 billion yuan (including 654.38+05.4 billion yuan) to qualified investors, and completed the first issue of bonds with a scale of 2 billion yuan on April 28, 2020.

In addition, the data of the first quarterly report shows that the net cash flow of China Eastern Airlines' financing activities increased by 446.46% year-on-year in order to keep the cash flow stable and accelerate the financing pace. During the reporting period, China Southern received cash of 654.388+09.388 billion yuan, up 226.5438+0.37% year-on-year; China Air China received loan cash of 654.38+05.322 billion yuan, up 6543.8+0848.89% year-on-year.

All the airlines mentioned above said that due to the COVID-19 epidemic, the demand for aviation dropped sharply in the first quarter, which had a serious impact on the civil aviation transportation industry and caused great losses in performance. They also believe that the first half of 2020 is not optimistic because there is great uncertainty about the duration and severity of the global epidemic.

Changjiang securities believes that in the first quarter, the cash flow pressure of the industry was relatively high, and the operating cash flow showed a relatively large net outflow. Listed airlines rely on debt to support their operations, while non-listed airlines face more severe liquidity risks due to relatively limited financing channels and operational capabilities. Therefore, it is urgent to introduce diversified and effective subsidy policies.

In addition to issuing bonds for blood transfusion, Wang Yu, chairman of Spring Airlines, personally launched a live broadcast, giving free air tickets for new routes, hotel room vouchers and surrounding gifts. Wang Yu also became the first person to open a live broadcast by the chairman of a domestic airline. In the end, the live broadcast of Wang Yu's first show, which started at 7: 00 pm on April 25th, was watched by 8.387 million people, with the highest number of simultaneous online users reaching 666,600.

In fact, the domestic aviation industry, which is shrouded in the epidemic, also needs an opportunity to express its demands to the outside world.

It is worth noting that when the domestic epidemic situation is under control, the resumption of work and production is also proceeding in an orderly manner. The just-passed "May Day" holiday also brought a small climax to the aviation industry. According to the data of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, during the "May 1" holiday (May 1 -5), civil aviation transported 3160,000 passengers, down 63.8% year-on-year; The average load factor was 66.4%, down 17.3 percentage points year-on-year. In addition, according to the statistics of Fei Changzhun APP, the number of flights on mainland routes has basically recovered to more than 50% compared with the same period of last year.

The foreign aviation industry, which has not yet eased the epidemic, is not so lucky. A few days ago, "Warren Buffett" publicly stated that he was bearish on the aviation industry. Before Buffett's words, several unsustainable airlines had filed for bankruptcy or were heading for bankruptcy.

"I don't know whether the demand for air travel will return to last year's level in three to four years from now." In the early morning of May 3rd, Beijing time, the 89-year-old Buffett, who has always been regarded as the "wind vane" of investment by the industry, admitted at the shareholders' meeting that his Berkshire Hathaway Company had "cleared" the stocks of the four major American airlines (American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines) bought at a loss of $7-8 billion. This is not a good signal for the global aviation industry.

Buffett even called investing in airlines a "mistake", saying that he was not optimistic about airlines and aircraft manufacturers. Warren Buffett's speech quickly made the whole market tremble. As of the close of May 4, local time, major American airlines suffered setbacks. In the end, United Airlines fell 5. 1 1%, American Airlines plunged 7.7 1%, Delta Airlines closed down 6.43%, and Southwest Airlines fell 5.7 1%. In addition, the aircraft manufacturer Boeing fell 1.43%.

Compared with being abandoned by investors, the increasing number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 makes American airlines worse. According to the data of Johns Hopkins University 10 on the evening of May 9, more than1309,000 people in the United States have been infected with COVID-19 virus, and 78,792 people have died.

According to Reuters, according to a testimony prepared by the American Aviation Association before the hearing of the US Senate a few days ago, due to the COVID-19 epidemic, American airlines currently consume more than 654.38 billion US dollars in cash every month, with an average of less than 20 passengers on each domestic flight and more than 3,000 planes grounded, which is 50% of the active fleet of the United States.

The situation of European airlines is even worse. Lufthansa previously said that due to the grounding of more than 90% of its passenger planes, the company now loses about 6.5438 million euros per hour, and its cash reserve can only last for about half a year. Lufthansa is currently negotiating with the German government on a 9 billion euro rescue plan. If it is not rescued, the world's leading airline may consider starting bankruptcy protection procedures. "Lufthansa passenger flow has regressed to 1955." Carsten Spohr, CEO of Lufthansa, said.

In fact, there are already airlines that can't live. According to the statistics of Civil Aviation Resource Network, at present, nine airlines in the world have gone bankrupt or applied for bankruptcy protection, involving Britain, the United States, Sweden, Norway and other countries. Including the old British regional airline Flybe, Compass and TransStates of the United States, and Virgin Australia, Australia's second largest airline.

According to the forecast released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on April 14, in 2020, the global aviation industry will lose 31400 million US dollars (about 2.2 trillion yuan) due to the COVID-19 epidemic.

At present, China, which took the lead in controlling the epidemic, has been highly anticipated by the global aviation industry, and relevant international routes are also recovering. However, the epidemic has changed the world and all walks of life are being tested. It will take time for the global aviation industry to return to its previous prosperity.

Dong told Phoenix Weekly that he had never encountered any accidents in his career for more than ten years. After the outbreak, professionalism reminded him that "the most important thing in this business is to have a good attitude, and I believe that the epidemic will soon pass."

(At the request of the interviewees, the interviewees in this article are all pseudonyms. )