The stock price fell by 7.05%, and the market value evaporated130 billion! Meituan is also very dangerous. ...

Author: Zhan Bendao, financial columnist.

What is important is that riders are also an indispensable element in the development of the US Mission.

Compared with the first half of the year, the number of riders increased by 16.4% year-on-year, and Meituan was actually controlling the cost of riders. Not long ago, because the rider was trapped by the algorithm, a public opinion condemning the US Mission was formed.

Therefore, choosing your own rider as a spokesperson can unite the hearts of employees internally and highlight the social image externally, which is simply beneficial.

Of course, the US Mission may not care too much about this, and it is confident that it can release itself after wrestling with Ali. In fact, the number of hungry users has not decreased, but has increased. Therefore, from the perspective of being stuck, it is really difficult for the US Mission to say that it has "won".

In addition to the takeaway business, Meituan also has Ctrip and Tongcheng in the field of arrival and tourism; Community group buying areas include Pinduoduo and JD.COM; There are Didi, Ant, Tencent, etc. In the financial field, it can be said that enemies are all over the world.

Even if the overlord is reincarnated, it is difficult to fight the enemy. So, how long can the US Mission fly?

1

Two tigers compete, winning or losing is long outside the bureau.

This year's dispute between Meituan and Ali may be the annual drama of the Internet.

At that time, Wang Xing went to war directly, and the US Mission and Ali started hand-to-hand combat. The focus of the struggle between the two sides is in the field of local life service. Among them, Ali used Alipay to import traffic and expand its business to non-catering distribution, which constituted a scuffle with the US Mission's near-field play.

Compared with the strong smell of gunpowder, the result may seem dull.

According to QuestMobile's autumn report of cmnet in 2020, the traffic ratio between the two sides finally leads the US Mission, but the gap is not big. In a sense, after Ali accessed Alipay, it really promoted the hungry traffic.

If the traffic scale is still beneficial to the US Mission, then the situation outside the bureau may be obviously unfavorable to the US Mission.

First of all, because the algorithm squeezes the rider, the US Mission is caught in the whirlpool of public criticism.

The financial report shows that in the third quarter, the cost of take-away riders increased by 4 billion year-on-year, and the order volume increased by 740 million orders year-on-year. The average cost of the corresponding rider is only 5.4 yuan.

For Meituan, improving the treatment of its riders, whether it is raising wages or expanding the scale, will eventually increase its operating costs.

Secondly, the problem of high commission not only causes dissatisfaction among merchants, but also limits the market share of Meituan.

As can be seen from the financial report, the commission income of Meituan in the third quarter was 182.5 1 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%, and the order volume in the same period increased to 30. 1%, showing a highly positive correlation.

This shows that the number of merchants in Meituan has not increased significantly, which also means that Meituan has not grabbed much market share that belongs to hungry.

Finally, according to the "Anti-monopoly Guide for Platform Economy (Draft for Comment)" issued by the State Administration of Markets, similar "two choices" will no longer be allowed.

This means that the unspoken rule of "choose one from two" for take-away merchants will be broken, and the monopoly advantage of Meituan in take-away merchants will be weakened, thus helping hungry people get the possibility of overtaking.

Generally speaking, compared with the weakness of internal factors, the outcome of the dispute between Meituan and Ali seems to be determined by the external situation to a greater extent.

2

Community group buying, a huge pit that can't be filled.

The US Mission has to wage fierce struggles in almost every field. Since the beginning of this year, the epidemic situation and market demand have superimposed on each other, leading to a "blowout" phenomenon in community group buying. Of course, the American delegation will also share a piece of the action.

It is reported that at the conference call of the third quarter earnings report of Meituan on June 5438+065438+1October 30, Wang Xing said that the optimization of Meituan is a priority strategy and is undoubtedly an "absolute thing to do".

From the perspective of expanding territory, the ambition of Meituan is undoubtedly broad, but the logic and operation of community group buying are different.

In fact, it belongs to acquaintance social sales. By recruiting community leaders, they are responsible for promoting sales and community management, and then the leaders get commissions from them. End-users can place orders today and arrive the next day through the link shared by the head of the delegation.

Community group buying is characterized by affordable group buying and acquaintance marketing transactions. As far as social attributes are concerned, thanks to Tencent's support, Meituan has certain advantages.

However, in order to maintain the market advantage and win over the head of the delegation, the US Mission has to burn money again. After all, in the absence of price advantage, Meituan has many competitors, and it is entirely possible for the head of the delegation to switch to another home. Therefore, the US Mission has to continue to burn money to maintain its price advantage.

Meituan wants to add a pit for investing money, but the problem is that it may be a huge pit that can't be filled. The community group buying market may not be as big as expected, but the competition is more intense.

The research report of open source securities shows that it is mainly distributed in fourth-tier cities, accounting for 46%; However, how much stable consumer demand the physical fitness group has depends fundamentally on the "price" given by the US Mission.

At the same time, Pinduoduo, Taobao Special Edition and JD.COM. , is also committed to expanding the sinking market, so the overall situation is not enough and the competition is fierce.

More importantly, Meituan's participation in community group buying competition means turning to an asset-based operation mode. Community group buying is a war around the supply chain. Only by turning to the operation of the front warehouse and focusing on assets can we win consumers in terms of category, price and timeliness, but this just requires the US Mission to burn money.

Community group buying is more complicated than all previous money-burning wars. Compared with Ali, Tencent, JD.COM and other early investments, such as Tencent's shareholding in Yonghui, the current US Mission may not be able to fill this hole immediately.

three

No matter how good the story is, you should be full.

The US Mission put all its eggs in one basket, and the opponent kept moving. On the day of Wang Xing's statement, Liu said at the high-level morning meeting that he would personally lead the community group purchase. Even more deadly, JD.COM is ready to burn money, with a net income of 654.38+070 billion in the third quarter.

In addition, the strong supply chain capability is also an advantage that many products can't match, such as buying more vegetables and optimizing orange hearts. For the protracted war of community group buying, whoever can't insist on burning money and who has many weaknesses may lose first.

As far as the US delegation is concerned, whether it can survive the protracted war is not very prominent at present.

First of all, the net income of Meituan is slowing down. The third quarter financial report shows that excluding the profit of undistributed projects including changes in the fair value of investment and amortization of intangible assets, the profits of Meituan's three major businesses, such as food and beverage take-out, hotel tourism and new business, only increased by 4.52% year-on-year.

On the day of the financial report, Meituan's share price fell by 7.05%, and its market value instantly evaporated by nearly HK$ 654.38+30 billion.

In addition, the financial report also shows that Meituan's new business operation losses, including online car rental, * * bicycle enjoyment, Meituan's grocery shopping, Meituan's optimization, Meituan's flash purchase and so on. , is 2 billion yuan.

At the same time, Meituan's small loan business has also stagnated. In the first three quarters of this year, the interest income of Meituan was 2120,000 yuan, 202 million yuan and 2190,000 yuan respectively, which was difficult to support the original high hopes. Even so, from the current situation, the internal and external environment in which Meituan's small loan business is located is extremely unfavorable.

Coupled with the external financial supervision storm triggered by the listing of ants, the US Mission is bound to be contained. This point need not be emphasized. Accordingly, the qualification problem within Meituan itself may be more severe.

According to the information disclosed by China Judgment Document Network, Jiaozuo Intermediate People's Court ruled that Chongqing Sankuai Small Loan Company (that is, Meituan Small Loan Company) did not obtain the approval of the financial supervision department, and it was "illegally engaged in loan issuance business".

If the hidden dangers of qualifications are not solved, then Meituan Finance will be in danger.

There are many foreign enemies and endless internal troubles. Can the US Mission still let itself drift? To take a step back, the qualification problem has been solved, but the business loan provided by Meituan to merchants and the monthly payment provided to service consumers have to cope with the competition with Alipay, and the functions of the two are highly overlapping, even with a high customer base. Perhaps, this is because the US Mission is following the strategy of "fighting to support the war".

However, the stall is too big and the front is too long. After all, the number of points being attacked is also increasing. Therefore, it is up to you to decide how long the US Mission can fly.