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Some views on the current high housing prices in China, China Finance, June 65438+1October 65438+September 15:02, 2009.

The regulation of the real estate market should be based on the word "stability", and improving supply and stabilizing demand should be the top priority of policy regulation, which will not only promote the stable development of the market, but also promote the return of housing prices to a reasonable level.

Some views on the related problems of high housing prices in China at present

■ Zhou Zongliang Jingwei

Since the beginning of this year, the real estate market in China has risen against the trend, and "the price and quantity have risen together" has once again become the focus of attention from all walks of life.

The property market is "rising in volume and price", and the market demand is concentrated.

Since the beginning of this year, the volume and price of China real estate market have risen, and the market demand has been released. In the first eight months, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 494 million square meters, up 42.85% year-on-year, down nearly 15 percentage point compared with the same period in 2008. Sales are growing faster. In the first eight months, the total sales volume of commercial housing was 2,346.47 billion yuan, up 69.86% year-on-year, down nearly 13 percentage points compared with the same period in 2008 (see figure 1).

While the volume of transactions has increased substantially, the year-on-year increase in house prices has turned from negative to positive, with positive growth for six consecutive months. In August, the sales price of houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide rose by 2.0% year-on-year, which was 1 percentage point higher than that in July, and it was the second consecutive month since the beginning of the year. It rose by 0.8% from the previous month, with positive growth for six consecutive months (see Figure 2).

Policy factors are the fundamental reason for the excessive rise in housing prices.

Loose credit policy is the direct cause.

On the supply side, the moderately loose monetary policy and the expansion of credit provide sufficient funds for developers, alleviating the shortage of funds for developers, and the pressure of discount promotion for developers in the early stage has disappeared; On the demand side, the reduction of deposit and loan interest rates and the reduction of the down payment ratio of house purchases have simultaneously amplified the demand for self-occupation and investment speculation. When the elasticity of supply is small or even reduced, the centralized release of demand will inevitably lead to a sharp rise in house prices.

Inflation expectation is an indirect cause.

Worried that global and domestic banks have injected a lot of liquidity into the market, and the situation that the international and domestic economies have bottomed out is gradually becoming clear, investors' expectations for future inflation are getting stronger and stronger. With the slow development of financial market and limited investment channels, buying a house has become the first choice for the wealthy in China to preserve and increase their assets. If in the first quarter of this year, the market demand was still dominated by self-occupation and improved demand, then in the second quarter, investment speculative demand became the main force to promote housing prices. The dynamic fine-tuning of monetary policy in the third quarter (such as tightening the second set of loans) made the speculative demand for investment ebb again, which led to a slowdown in trading volume again.

Credit funds illegally entered the property market and the stock market.

According to estimates, the ratio of new loans to GDP in the first half of this year was as high as 0.53, while in previous years this ratio has been stable at 0. 1 ~ 0.2. In the first half of the year, GDP increased by 7. 1%, the lowest growth rate since 1992. At present, the low level of economic growth does not need and cannot absorb so much credit funds, which will inevitably lead to some credit funds flowing into the asset market, thus further pushing up asset prices such as house prices and stock prices.

The overall level of housing prices in China is obviously high.

Judging from the cycle of the real estate industry, this round of market adjustment in 2008 is not completely inadequate.

In the four stages of the macroeconomic boom cycle (depression, recovery, prosperity and recession), there are four combinations of economic growth and price: high growth, low price, high growth, high price and low growth and high price. In fact, the real estate industry also has a similar cyclical development law: generally speaking, the adjustment of the real estate market is always guided by the decline in transaction volume, but at this time, the house price is still firm, and there is a so-called "falling volume and price" stage; Then both price and quantity fall, that is, the stage of "both price and quantity fall"; With the price falling, the effective demand began to increase, and the trading volume began to pick up, entering the stage of "quantity and price rising together"; Finally, with the improvement of economy, the continuous increase of trading volume and active speculative demand, it has evolved into a stage of "volume and price rising together". The time needed to develop from one stage to another mainly depends on the stage of real estate development and the change of external environment.

According to the industry development cycle, we can divide the development process of China real estate since 2000 into three stages:

The first stage (2000 ~ 2002): the stage of "quantity increases and price decreases". According to the data in table 1, at present, the national house price has risen slightly, and the average annual increase of the house sales price index is 2.0% in the past three years. Due to the small price increase, a large amount of effective demand accumulated before the housing system reform has been released in a centralized way, and the market turnover at this stage has also increased significantly (with an average annual growth rate of more than 20%).

The second stage (2003 ~ 2007): the stage of "quantity and price rising together". Since 2003, influenced by many factors, such as the rising economic cycle and the approaching Beijing Olympic Games, the sales volume of housing in China has continued to increase (with an average annual increase of about 24%). At the same time, China's housing prices have also entered a rapid upward channel, and the housing sales price index has increased by more than 7% annually. This stage lasts a long time, and there is an objective need for adjustment in the market.

The third stage (2008): the stage of "quantity and price falling together". With the continuous activity of the market and the increase of speculative activities, the national housing prices are constantly rising, but the rising high housing prices are beyond the affordability of most buyers, forcing most buyers to withdraw from the market. Coupled with the suppression of national macro-control and the impact of the global financial crisis, the market turnover has dropped sharply at this stage. In 2008, the turnover decreased by nearly 20%, which was the first year since the housing reform.

But this period only lasted less than 1 year. In 2009, influenced by the national economic stimulus policy, especially the monetary policy, the real estate market ended its adjustment ahead of schedule and returned to the boom cycle of "volume and price rising together". However, according to the law of industry development and international (such as Japan) experience, the real estate adjustment cycle should be at least three years, and the adjustment duration in 2008 is less than 1 year. Therefore, this round of real estate market adjustment is incomplete and insufficient. Due to the previous price increase, buyers' wait-and-see atmosphere reappeared, and the real estate transaction volume in some cities began to shrink since August, indicating that the current real estate market in China is at a critical stage from "falling in volume and price" to "falling in volume and price".

Excessive housing prices are not conducive to the healthy development of the industry.

Ordinary people think that the current housing price is unbearable, but some developers, some officials and some scholars think that the housing price is actually not high, and there are evidences such as urbanization, industrialization and upgrading of consumption structure. Here, the author measures the overall level of China's housing prices through three methods: the ratio of housing prices to income, the ratio of housing prices to rents and the absolute price method.

First, the ratio of house price to income is much higher than the reasonable level. When the house is used to meet the demand of owner-occupation, it is the actual purchasing power of the residents that determines the house price, which is usually expressed by the "ratio of house price to income". After investigating the capital cities of more than 50 countries, UN-HABITAT believes that the reasonable price of a house should be 2-3 times the annual income of residents. More than six times, most people can't afford it, and there is a problem in the market. However, as shown in Table 2, in 2008, the ratio of house price to income in China was as high as 8∶ 1. The ratio of house price to income in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hainan and Tianjin all exceeds10:1,and the core area of Beijing is as high as 22:1,which is significantly higher than that in international cities such as Tokyo, London and Vancouver.

Second, the price-rent ratio is increasing year by year, and the market bubble and risk are simultaneously amplified. When housing is used as an investment demand, an important factor in determining housing prices is housing rent. Internationally, the ratio of house price to rent is usually used to indicate the level of house price. Limited by the availability of data, here we use the ratio of the commercial housing sales price index and the rental price index published by the National Bureau of Statistics to indicate the relative change of housing prices and rental prices: if the ratio is greater than 1, it means that the prices and rents are relatively high, and speculative elements and market bubbles are increasing; Conversely, if the ratio is less than 1, it means that prices and rents are relatively low, and speculative components and bubbles in the market are decreasing. In recent years, the "price-to-rent ratio" of China real estate market has been continuously improved, from 1.03 in 2003 to 1.04 in 2004-2008. Although it declined in the first half of 2009 (1.0 1), it was still above the critical value of 1. It shows that there are more and more speculative elements and bubbles in the real estate market in China with the rise of housing prices.

Third, in absolute terms, the housing prices in China's first tier cities have approached or even surpassed those in developed countries. In 2008, in Chicago, USA, the median price of a 200-square-meter single-family villa was $264,000, and the unit price was about 9,240 yuan/square meter. The price of an 80-square-meter apartment building with parking space in Tokyo, Japan is about 30 million yen, equivalent to RMB 6,543,800+0.92 million, or about 24,000 yuan per square meter. In 2009, the selling price of more than 70% buildings within the Fourth Ring Road in Beijing reached 20,000 yuan/square meter. Considering the purchasing power parity, China's housing has only 70 years of land use rights. Considering that the per capita income of the United States and Japan is several times or even dozens times higher than that of China, the housing prices of first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai in China have actually far exceeded those of developed countries.

Therefore, no matter from the industry development cycle or the three major indicators to measure housing prices, the overall level of housing prices in China is obviously high.

The influence of high housing prices on economic development

From the perspective of the national economy and the welfare promotion of members of the whole society, the excessive rise in housing prices does more harm than good, and its harm is mainly reflected in the following three aspects.

"Positive feedback effect" intensifies macroeconomic fluctuations

The rapid rise in house prices has a "wealth effect". That is, with the rise of housing prices, the market value of mortgage assets will increase, which will drive the increase of residents' consumption and economic growth, that is, a positive feedback mechanism will be formed between housing prices and wealth. From the perspective of economic fluctuation, during the period of economic expansion, rising house prices will further push up economic growth; In the period of economic contraction, falling house prices will further slow down economic growth.

On the supply side, when housing prices rise, developers and banks expect prices to continue to rise, which leads to an increase in credit and investment development; On the demand side, the rise in housing prices has led to an increase in investment demand. In the case of short-term supply inelastic, the sharp increase in demand will inevitably lead to a rapid rise in housing prices. Due to the high degree of industrial correlation, an active real estate market will promote the rapid development of related industries such as construction, metallurgy, building materials, transportation and finance, thus accelerating economic growth; Similarly, during the economic depression, it will accelerate the economic decline.

The crowding-out effect restricts the expansion of residents' consumption.

Due to the rapid rise in housing prices, the down payment and monthly payment for housing purchases have been increasing in recent years, and the proportion of monthly payment and rental expenses in the total consumption expenditure of residents has also been increasing. The increase of housing expenditure and the increase of its proportion have crowded out the expenditure of buyers in other aspects of life and development, which has seriously restricted the continuous expansion of household consumption. Especially in the context of the current international financial crisis, the rapid rise in housing prices has squeezed residents' consumption and distorted the allocation of social resources, which has become a stumbling block to expanding consumption and ensuring growth.

The "redistribution effect" has widened the income gap of residents.

Housing is not only an ordinary commodity, but also an investment product. Rising house prices will have different effects on the wealth stock of different families. For families without housing, rising house prices have increased the difficulty of renting and buying a house, making the hope of these people realizing their dream of buying a house more and more slim; For families with their own houses, rising house prices will increase mortgage consumption; For families who own houses and invest in them, rising house prices can not only get rental income, but also get more mortgage loans, which is the biggest beneficiary of rising house prices. Generally speaking, the excessive rise in housing prices will further widen the income gap.

People-oriented, Promoting the Healthy Development of Real Estate Market

The rapid rise in housing prices is not conducive to the development of the real estate industry itself, to the stability of economy and finance, and to the goal of building a harmonious socialist society. Therefore, the regulation of the real estate market should be based on the word "stability", and improving supply and stabilizing demand should be the top priority of policy regulation, which will not only promote the stable development of the market, but also promote the return of housing prices to a reasonable level.

Adhere to the people-oriented principle and promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market

Living in peace is the foundation of people's livelihood. In recent years, the rise of housing prices in China has far exceeded the growth of residents' income, so the real estate development based on the real needs of ordinary people is inevitably unsustainable. The real estate policy should be guided by Scientific Outlook on Development and people-oriented. Starting from the height of building a harmonious socialist society, we will do everything possible to meet the people's demand for self-occupation, curb investment demand, severely curb speculative demand, and promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.

Fine-tune the dynamic monetary policy and strictly implement the second home loan policy.

In view of the problem of excessive structural demand in China's housing market, practical and effective measures should be taken to curb unreasonable demand. Financial supervision departments should urge commercial banks to strictly implement the mortgage down payment ratio policy; Strictly restrict the illegal entry of credit funds into the real estate market, and the growth of housing credit must match the economic growth and the repayment ability of borrowers. When the economy stabilizes and rebounds and prices rise further, interest rates will be raised in due course. Drawing on international experience, we will impose certain policy restrictions on non-local property buyers (including overseas and non-local), especially those who purchase multiple houses. Strengthen the supervision of foreign capital flowing into the real estate market.

Improve the supply structure and continue to increase the construction of affordable housing.

Adhere to the "two legs" of the government and the market, and clarify and strengthen the government's responsibilities and obligations in safeguarding residents' basic housing. In recent years, although governments at all levels have accelerated the pace of affordable housing construction, from the perspective of the proportion of affordable housing in the total housing supply and meeting the housing needs of low-and middle-income families, the pace of affordable housing construction in China is still too slow, and further efforts are needed to increase the effective supply of the market. It is necessary to speed up the study and introduction of the property tax policy and curb the speculative demand for investment.

Establish and improve the real estate market information system

Strengthen market monitoring. Standardized market and open and transparent information will help market participants to form reasonable expectations and avoid blind investment and consumption. It is suggested that all relevant departments should strengthen the collection, collation and sharing of real estate market operation data. Establish a real estate risk early warning system to provide open, transparent and authoritative dynamic information. ■

Author: Strategic Development Department of Bank of China (4. 13, -0.06,-1.43%).

Cause analysis and trend prediction of high housing prices in China

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For a mature market economy country, the rise of house prices is inseparable from the fundamentals of the economy. For China, which is in the economic transition period, there are economic fundamentals, but there are also many non-economic fundamentals and non-market factors. In this sense, the formation and trend of real estate prices in China is much more complicated than that in mature market economy countries. So, what is pushing up housing prices at this stage?

Cost drives up prices.

Under the current land system in China, land supply is not only limited by natural conditions, but also monopolized by the government; On the one hand, some local governments rely on "de facto ownership" and control->; Right, under the influence of political achievements and the interests of the group, blindly occupying land, causing a lot of waste and destruction of land resources; On the other hand, enterprises and ordinary residents with good economic benefits need insufficient land, and the mismatch between land supply and demand leads to the rise of land prices and house prices.

Demand drives up prices.

In 2003, the average cost of commercial housing in China only accounted for about 58% of the average selling price, which shows that the current commercial housing price is no longer a simple "producer price" or "cost price", but a market price, and it is more inclined to demand price at this stage. The existence of huge market demand at this stage provides convenience for real estate developers to raise housing prices and pass on various costs such as land, raw materials and taxes to consumers. Development enterprises will not reduce their rich profits because of the rise in land prices and raw material prices.

In 2003, the urban per capita disposable income in China exceeded $65,438+0,000 yuan for the first time, reaching 8,472 yuan. According to the frequently quoted "international standard", the ratio of house price to income is between 3: 1 ~ 6: 1, and the price of affordable housing for urban households in China should be between15 ~ 300,000 yuan/set. But in fact, in many cities, the ratio of new house price to family income is above 10: 1.

This abnormal phenomenon can't be explained by economic fundamentals, and we can only find the answer from institutional changes.

(1) The formation of high-income groups. China is in the period of economic transformation. The lag of system construction, policy mistakes and conflicts and games of various interests have led to the widening income gap between urban and rural areas, between regions and among urban residents, and it has a growing momentum.

The widening income gap means that wealth is concentrated in a few high-income people. These high-income earners include: private entrepreneurs, managers of state-owned enterprises, bankers, theorists, IT elites, business giants, literary and artistic rookies, sports stars and so on. Although the number is limited, it accounts for an inestimable share of income and consumption. According to the statistics of the World Bank, the highest income group, which accounts for 20% of China's total population, accounts for 46.6% of the total income or consumption, while the share of the lowest income group, which accounts for 20%, is only 5.9%, a difference of 7.8 times. According to China's relevant statistics, from the distribution of financial assets, among the more than 20 trillion financial assets, 80% of residents' financial assets are owned by urban residents who account for 37% of the population, and half of them are owned by high-income groups of 20%. If there are 10% high-income people in the city, then based on the existing urban population of 520 million, it is 52 million people, forming a Canadian housing market with a market size of 1.7 times. This "inverted pyramid" social structure is the main reason for the abnormal demand for urban housing at this stage. This also poses a challenge to our decision makers. Under the new market environment of widening income gap, how should the government guide the market, optimize the housing supply structure, improve the housing payment ability of most groups, and ensure the basic housing needs of a few low-income groups?

(2) Housing welfare becomes a commodity. After 2000, China bid farewell to housing welfare distribution. In fact, the umbilical cord between the employee's housing and the unit has not been cut so far. On the one hand, the dual-track system of housing supply weakens the pain of reform, on the other hand, it is also conducive to the realization of housing welfare in the market. Some government departments with strong financial resources and state-owned enterprises with monopoly status have some land to build houses for employees, but no land to buy commercial houses for employees. Workers will rent and sell the welfare houses they get from their units. Although houses are different in construction years, lots and quality, they can still get 200,000 to 600,000 yuan in big cities such as Beijing, which is equivalent to the income of ordinary wage earners for several years or even decades. The more housing benefits you have, the more assets you can realize. However, the chain of getting rich by assets did not end there. People get initial capital by turning "welfare housing" into "commercial housing", which can be used as down payment, personal savings or bank loans, so they can buy more satisfactory housing from the market. With a set of real estate belonging to them, the owners can also mortgage the property, borrow money from the bank, and engage in investment property management such as shops and house leasing. The speed of getting rich by assets is much more convenient than simple labor by human assets, and the housing demand released from it can not be underestimated.

(3) the accumulation of intergenerational wealth. Residents' housing consumption is a process of gradual release according to its life cycle law. But in China, on the one hand, the second-hand housing and rental housing market is underdeveloped, which restricts consumers' diversified choices; On the other hand, the purchase of commercial housing is not only related to a person's current income, but also related to lasting income; It is not only related to the accumulation of financial assets of individuals and small families, but also related to the accumulation of intergenerational wealth. Many young people get married and buy a house, not only by personal income savings, but by large subsidies from their parents; It is difficult to measure the housing demand released by the accumulation of intergenerational wealth with a simple formula of "house price-income ratio".

Calculate the difference of caliber

Although China's real estate industry has developed rapidly, it is still a new industry, and many basic data are still not perfect, and the statistical caliber and methods are quite different from those of foreign countries. This often affects people's judgment on things.

(1) ratio of house price to income. It is one of the indicators to measure the housing affordability of residents. 1992, the concept of "the ratio of house price to income is between 3: 1 and 6: 1" was introduced into China in the research report of experts from the World Bank: Reform of Urban Housing System in China: Problems and Alternatives.

There are at least the following misunderstandings in our understanding of the ratio of house price to income. First of all, according to the definition of United Nations monitoring indicators, the ratio of house price to income only reflects the differences of affordability in different regions and countries, but cannot reflect the differences of housing quality and income gap. This means that this indicator cannot fully reflect the differences in living conditions. Secondly, the calculation method is different. The calculation method of the United Nations adopts the ratio of the median house price to the median household income, not the average, because considering the purchasing power of residents' housing mainly depends on whether middle-income families have purchasing power, and they are the main body of market demand. Even in countries with developed economies and high income levels, not everyone buys a house. The home ownership rate in the United States is 69%, that in Britain is 66%, and that in Germany is only 50%, all of which are lower than the level of 8 1% in China. But this does not mean that the living conditions in these countries are worse than ours. Thirdly, the definition and calculation of house price and household income are also different from those in China. According to the definition of the United Nations, house prices should be free market prices, which have two meanings: first, non-market trading activities (such as selling public houses and raising funds to build houses) should not be included in the calculation; Second, the houses traded in the market include not only new houses, but also the exchange and circulation of existing houses. In the United States, the transaction volume of existing houses is five to six times that of newly completed houses, and two-thirds of the houses circulating in the Hong Kong market are in stock. The development of the second-hand housing market plays an important role in stabilizing the housing market price. When calculating the annual household income, the United Nations defines household income as various pre-tax incomes, including wages, pensions, income from business activities, rental income and various subsidies in kind. However, China only considers wage income, or per capita disposable income, and all kinds of welfare income and invisible income are not included. Due to the differences in calculation methods, the ratio of house price to income in China is not internationally comparable at all.

(2) residential sales price index. Judging from the change of residential sales price index, in the past two years, the housing prices of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China, such as Shanghai, Chongqing, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Shenyang and Qingdao, are among the best, all exceeding double digits. But judging from the average house price, the house price in Shanghai is not much higher than that in Beijing. As early as 1997, the average selling price of commercial housing in Beijing exceeded 5,000 yuan. So we can't simply judge the real estate bubble by the price. In fact, this example reflects that there are some defects in China's current average price and price index, and it is difficult to fully reflect the changes in housing market prices.

First of all, although the current commodity housing sales price index includes all kinds of listed houses, it is difficult to fully reflect the overall supply and demand situation of the housing market if the weight of new commercial houses is relatively large. Of course, this is also related to the underdeveloped housing supply system and second-hand housing market in China. The development of China's second-hand housing market is lagging behind, and the circulation of a large number of stock houses is not smooth, which leads to the excessive concentration of housing demand in the new commercial housing market, thus promoting the market price increase.

Secondly, commercial housing is different from other commodities. The immovability of commercial housing space determines that each building is unique. Therefore, in the "package" sample of the price index, the newly opened commercial housing in that year is located in different lots, and its prices are also very different. Take Beijing as an example. In recent years, with the rapid expansion of the city, a large number of newly built commercial houses for sale are outside the Fourth Ring Road, which accounts for a large proportion, which will inevitably lead to the decline of the overall average price. In order to accurately grasp the price changes of different commodities, the United States adopts the repeated sales price index, the main points of which are: it is the actual transaction price; Based on the resale price of homogeneous housing, it divides the national housing market into nine regions and even refines it to every specific city. This is different from simply calculating the average transaction price regardless of the quality and location of the house. Statistically, the lower the house price, the higher the house price sold in the market. No wonder consumers are complaining.

Based on the above analysis, it can be said that in the process of high-speed urbanization in China, the rise in housing prices may be a normal state. To solve the contradiction between the excessive rise in housing prices caused by system transformation and the insufficient affordability of ordinary residents, the government should strengthen macro-control and reform, including: speeding up the reform of land system and optimizing the allocation and utilization efficiency of land resources; Cultivate the second-hand housing rental housing market and increase the supply of ordinary commercial housing; Establish an open and transparent online trading system and information consultation system to guide investment and consumption with correct information and curb malicious speculation. Only by actively starting from the system construction can we ensure the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market.