The mortgage interest rate soared 40% in 6 months! The cost of buying a house has increased greatly.

Recently, many banks in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other cities have tightened their mortgage policies again. It is reported that some banks have raised the interest rate of the first home loan by 10% or even by 20%. Under the background of tight liquidity and high interest rate of funds, does this mean that banks have tightened their mortgages in disguise, or does it mean that mortgages have entered the era of bargaining?

The industry expects that the situation of mortgage tightening may continue. What impact will this have on the commercial housing sales market? Conducted to the A-share market, how will real estate stocks go?

Song Qinghui, a well-known economist, believes that, on the whole, the increase in the interest rate of the first home will curb the demand for real estate investment, or it will have an impact on the real estate stocks in the A-share market. There are some risks in investing in real estate stocks recently, but we can pay attention to the investment targets of low-valued real estate stocks.

The upward trend of mortgage interest rate has been set.

The property market policy has always been a hot topic. In the past, everyone was talking about rising house prices, but recently they are talking about rising mortgage loans. A few months ago, many commercial banks still offered a 15% discount on the interest rate of the first home loan. Recently, in first-tier cities and some hot cities, some banks have raised the interest rate of the first home loan to 1. 1 times, and the interest rate of the first home loan of a joint-stock bank in Shanghai has also been raised to 1.2 times! As for the second home loan, it is a common phenomenon that the benchmark interest rate is 1. 1 to 1.2 times.

In response to the media report that "the interest rate of the first home loan of some banks in Beijing has gone up 10%", the Beijing Financial Work Bureau clarified that on the 5th, it was learned from many banks and intermediaries in Beijing that the interest rate of the first home loan of most banks in Beijing is still subject to the benchmark interest rate, except for a few joint-stock banks, but it also suggested that the possibility of future increase should not be ruled out, and when to increase depends on the trend of house prices and the total loans of banks.

At present, many banks in many cities have joined the team of tightening mortgage interest rates, which shows that the trend of banks tightening real estate loans has been obvious, and the upward trend of mortgage interest rates has been set. As we all know, first, the property market regulation policy is still in progress, and second, the current cost of capital is rising. Under the background of rising capital cost, the annualized capital cost of fixed wealth management income including Yu 'ebao is close to 4. 1%. In this case, the benchmark mortgage interest rate of 4.9% is a low-profit product for most banks.

Citic Securities believes that due to factors such as real estate regulation and control policies and mid-year assessment, it is expected that the Bank of China will tighten mortgage loans to a certain extent in 2008. At present, the proportion of new real estate credit in the total credit balance and new credit volume in China is still very high. In order to prevent and control systemic risks, the central bank and regulatory authorities have issued a number of documents to regulate the real estate credit of commercial banks.

In addition, according to overseas media reports, the CBRC will allow some banks to postpone the submission of self-inspection reports that should have been submitted in June, including inter-bank business and outsourcing investment scale business. CITIC Securities speculates that this round of MPA (Macro Prudential Assessment System) assessment may focus on the implementation of real estate credit policies, and personal housing loans may become an important inspection item. Under this pressure, commercial banks are expected to tighten the supply of real estate credit.

In less than half a year, the bank mortgage interest rate first returned to the benchmark interest rate from 15% discount, and then climbed to 1.2 times of the benchmark interest rate, which was interpreted by the industry as a "targeted interest rate hike" in the property market. This "interest rate hike" is not small, as high as 4 1. 18%!

According to industry insiders, at present, commercial banks have substantially raised mortgage interest rates, which is actually a disguised refusal to lend. At present, some banks simply give up the mortgage business, mainly in the process of issuing mortgage loans in the first half of the year, which leads to a tight credit line. After all, the floating mortgage interest rate is only a measure taken by some banks in some cities. Property buyers have a certain dominance and can choose banks with lower mortgage interest rates.

Another view is that the mortgage interest rate has actually entered the era of bargaining. Earlier, it was reported that some banks have started to rank mortgage loans according to interest rates, and only those lenders who accept higher interest rates can get loans faster. This is consistent with the statement of the account manager of a joint-stock bank. He said that if customers have requirements for the time of lending, they can suggest that the interest rate should rise by 20% as a condition, so that they can get the treatment of lending in advance without queuing.

Commercial housing sales may be affected.

According to the calculation of CITIC Securities, compared with the benchmark interest rate of medium and long-term loans in 5~ 10 years, after the mortgage interest rate rises by 10%, the interest on the loan balance (quarterly balance of medium and long-term loans of financial institutions) will increase by 5 percentage points on average in the disposable income of urban households. In its view, commercial banks' restrictions on the amount and price of mortgage loans will further increase the repayment burden of residents' mortgage loans, restrain the demand of residents' mortgage loans to a certain extent, and further cool the commercial housing sales market.

In Song Qinghui's view, the upward mortgage interest rate has a greater impact on the real estate market: First, it increases the cost and difficulty for buyers to buy a house, forcing the entire real estate market to gradually cool down; The second is to affect the real estate transaction volume. However, he also suggested that housing enterprises may reduce prices through various forms of strategies to make up for the impact of the increase in mortgage interest rates on market turnover.

Recently, a survey on mortgage interest rate was carried out. More than 60% of netizens said that even if the mortgage interest rate is raised, it will be difficult for house prices to come down, and nearly 40% of them believe that house prices will still rise steadily. A netizen believes that the real threshold for buying a house lies in the down payment, and most people who have the ability to buy a house will not be a problem. There are also views that the main purpose of the current mortgage interest rate policy is to increase the purchase cost of buyers. If the interest rate is too high or the amount is too small, it will stop some real estate speculators, mainly many people who use bank funds to speculate in real estate.

Although many experts and scholars in the industry are still optimistic about the real estate market, especially in first-tier cities and hot cities, under the endless control measures, the real estate transaction data has shrunk obviously, and most of them are in a situation of "falling prices and falling prices". Take Beijing as an example. According to statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate, in May, the number of online second-hand houses in Beijing was 1080 1 set, which was the second consecutive month after April. In addition, the signing amount of 1 10,000 sets is the lowest in the last 27 months. According to the data of Chain Home Research Institute, in May, the transaction volume of second-hand houses handled by chain home decreased by 23.9% month-on-month, which was less than that of 1/6 in March, the lowest point since 20 15 years. In addition, the data of Chain Home Research Institute shows that the customer's transaction cycle is 52 days, the largest since 20 12, indicating that the customer's wait-and-see emotional space is obvious.

According to the data of GF Securities, the transaction area of new houses in 43 representative cities decreased by 2.3% and 20.4% respectively in May, among which 19 restricted cities decreased by 10.3% and 36.8% respectively. Second-hand housing, which is more representative of the trend of the property market, has a more obvious callback trend. In May, 1/3 or more cities accounted for 14, and the transaction volume decreased by 9.6% and 19.8% respectively. The nine cities with restricted purchases decreased by 1 1.2% and the cities without restricted purchases decreased by 0.4% respectively.

Pay attention to low-valued real estate stocks

Song Qinghui believes that, on the whole, the increase in the interest rate of the first home will curb the demand for real estate investment, or it will have an impact on the real estate stocks in the A-share market. There are some risks in investing in real estate stocks in the near future, and its suggestions can focus on the investment targets of low-valued real estate stocks.

Since the beginning of this year, mainland real estate stocks in the Hong Kong stock market have made great strides. China Evergrande has risen 2.45 times this year, becoming the leader of real estate stocks, while Country Garden and Sunac China have risen 1.22 times and 1. 16 times respectively this year. In addition, Agile Group, Caesar Group, Longguang Real Estate and Longhu Real Estate have all increased by more than 50% this year. According to the statistics of straight flush, since June, the share prices of several mainland real estate stocks have reached a record high. Among them, Longguang Real Estate and Yuzhou Real Estate both hit record highs yesterday. On June 7th, China Evergrande hit a record high of HK$ 17.66, and Sunac China and Longhu Real Estate climbed another record high on June 6th.

Comparatively speaking, the performance of real estate stocks in the A-share market is inferior. Of the 125 stocks developed by Shenwan Real Estate, only 40 have increased positively this year, accounting for only 32%. Among them, 26 have increased by more than 10% this year, among which 5 have increased by more than 50%, namely Xincheng Holding, Han Jing, Jinyu, Beichen Industry and Huaxia Happiness, all of which are xiong'an new area concept stocks except Xincheng Holding. The top gainers are Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area concept stocks, including OCT A, China Merchants Shekou, Shenzhen Property A and gree real estate, all of which have increased by more than 65,438+00% this year, among which Shenzhen Property A's share price hit a record high yesterday.

(The above answers were published on 20 17-06- 12. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )

For more real estate information, policy interpretation and expert interpretation, click to view.