Analysis of green papers on housing over the years

According to the Green Paper on Housing, due to the sharp decline of global financial and economic trends in 2008, the adjustment of the housing market in China, which started at the beginning of this year, was forced to be interrupted. Although the housing industry is not included in the list of national revitalization industries, it is still regarded as the main force for the rebound of GDP. As a result, various preferential policies for the housing industry have been introduced, and financial institutions and financial markets have generously injected a large amount of liquidity, uncontrollable speculative demand and certain rigid demand into the housing industry. As a result, the housing enterprises that were on the verge of despair at the end of 2008 came into being, and broke out rapidly after the difficult early 2008. In just a few months, it swallowed up the downward space of house prices in the past year in 2008 and rushed to a new historical peak.

The housing market in China and its related economic, financial and policy pictures since 2008 are as follows: the global economy has gradually stabilized from deep recession; China's macro-economy has rebounded from rapid decline to bottoming out; The quality of urbanization has improved significantly, and urbanization in the central and western regions has accelerated; The housing financial market has moved from austerity to easing; Housing development enterprises have deteriorated sharply to improve rapidly; Housing consumption, investment and speculation have been repeated several times; Credit supervision has changed from tight to loose, and from loose to tight; Housing assets and the property market have been adjusted from falling back to rising rapidly; The housing land market has dropped from heat to gradual recovery; The construction of affordable housing has increased rapidly, and the coverage of security has improved. The housing green paper predicts 20 10: the global economic recovery is slow, but the global housing market has different performances; China's economy will continue to recover, and the role of housing investment will be further enhanced; The scale of urbanization is at its peak and the regional growth of urbanization is relatively balanced; The housing market is warm in spring and cool in autumn, with fluctuating growth; The transaction volume of residential land market rose, and the transaction price went up; The housing finance market is rising moderately and fluctuating.

Adjustment method

The "Green Paper on Housing" put forward detailed control measures of 20 10. Supply management: levy heavy taxes on high-end property suppliers; Give appropriate preferential treatment to the development of ordinary commercial housing, and implement incentive and subsidy policies for the development of affordable housing; Demand management: implement differentiated demand management policies of "restraining speculation, guiding investment, encouraging consumption and expanding security"; Space management: focus on monitoring the impact and speculation of international hot money in first-tier cities, and focus on monitoring the speculation of domestic speculators in first-and second-tier cities. According to economic development, income level and its changes, take different measures to guide the supply and demand policies of different regions and cities; Time management: In view of the possible different market performances in the four quarters of 20 10, the financial departments such as finance, land and finance, especially the financial department, should make plans in advance, grasp the rhythm and adopt appropriate relaxation policies. Specifically, increase land and affordable housing in the first quarter and moderately reduce the consistently high growth rate of loans; Increase measures to stimulate supply in the second quarter, increase the supply of affordable housing at the same time, moderately tighten consumer support, and increase consumption stimulus policies in the third and fourth quarters; Expectation management: In view of the expectations generated by the macro-economy and the real estate market situation, the government takes appropriate and ever-changing measures to crack down on market speculation, and guides the supply and demand sides to return to rationality through expectation management.

Policy principle

The Green Paper on Housing puts forward the policy principles of regulation. Adhere to "quantitative easing, accurate delivery; Different from each other, strike hard; Multi-strategy combination, time-space matching; Combination of long and short, treating both the symptoms and the root causes. " "Quantitative easing, accurate delivery". Mainly refers to housing credit (including land, etc. Adhere to a clear number of easing policies, and further refine the delivery targets and accurately deliver them to the supply and demand targets; "There is a difference between repression and attack." That is, we should adopt different policies towards security, consumption, investment and speculation and further strengthen them. That is, take further policy measures to curb speculation more effectively, guide investment, further encourage consumption and expand security; "Multi-strategy collocation and combination of time and space" means comprehensive use of land, finance, taxation and supervision means, coordinated operations and constant adjustment according to different space and time; "Combine the long and short, treat both the symptoms and the root causes". It is to combine the goal of completing 20 10 with the long-term goal, to solve the immediate goal problem with the long-term fundamental problem, to combine the introduction of specific measures, and to take the opportunity of system, system and mechanism reform.

Policy measures

The Green Paper on Housing puts forward policies and measures for regulation. Macro-economy: fine-tune macro-policies, stimulate endogenous growth, and prevent and control inflation; Urban development: tap the potential of urbanization and improve the quality of urbanization; Develop enterprises: announce the reference price of housing to improve the quality of urbanization; Demand subject: encourage housing consumption, guide housing investment and curb housing speculation; Housing market: improve the housing market system and encourage housing consumption; Land market: expand the scale of housing land supply and improve land use efficiency; Financial institutions: strictly control speculative mortgage to stimulate real housing demand; Market supervision: standardize market access conditions and strictly supervise market behavior; Housing security: implement the construction plan of affordable housing and effectively expand the supply of affordable housing.

Housing suggestion

The Green Paper on Housing puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to solve the long-term housing problem. It is pointed out that the overall goal of housing development is "to ensure stable development, strive for sustained prosperity, promote economic growth and realize the overall goal of housing development". Focus on solving the structural problems in the national economy and re-establish the strategic positioning of housing in the national economy; Establish a long-term mechanism to promote the stable and balanced development of housing. Construct a three-dimensional comprehensive housing development system. Reconstruct the housing production system that combines housing marketization with security, the product system that combines marketization with security, and the institutional system of housing development system, strategy, policy, supervision and regulation.

Specifically, there are the following measures: improving the construction of social security system and expanding the scale of affordable housing construction; Improve the institutional environment of urban development and tap the potential of urbanization; Innovating the real estate system and establishing a sound legal system; Establish a smooth and effective supervision system and oppose the monopoly of the housing market; Improve the way the government participates in the market and improve the service quality of the government; Establish a fair and reasonable tax and fee system and realize the transfer payment system of housing distribution; Establish a housing policy committee and a unified and flexible control system; Establish a graded housing system that combines commodity and policy differentiation; Establish a housing system that combines housing reproduction, goods and security. 20 1 165438 China academy of social sciences released the 20 12 housing green book on the morning of February 9. Dr. Ni Pengfei, director of the Center for Urban and Competitiveness Research of China Academy of Social Sciences, said at the meeting that the regulation of the real estate market in 20 12 years should adhere to the principles of continuity, stability, difference and flexibility, with the goal of returning to rationality and healthy development. Strive to achieve stable macroeconomic growth and a "soft landing" in the real estate market.

Ni Pengfei said that in the long run, China's urbanization is still in an accelerated period, residents' income continues to rise, and the potential for rigid housing demand is still large. China's long-term economic growth is better than that of developed economies. With the continuous appreciation of RMB for several years, the demand potential of real estate investment is still great, which is determined by the long-term positive trend of the real estate market. In the future downward adjustment process, the expectations of supply and demand will be divided. In the process of cautious price reduction and promotion by some developers, some property buyers will make their own money, so the real estate market will slowly pull back.

Ni Pengfei said that cities with high housing prices should decline, ordinary cities should be stable, sales should be basically stable, the proportion of affordable housing should increase, and investment should be moderately delayed, but real estate investment should be prevented from falling sharply and investment should be moderately delayed. Efforts should be made to achieve the main tasks of promoting stable macroeconomic growth and "soft landing" of the housing market: preventing two major market risks, solving three major structural imbalances, improving four major regulatory policies, ensuring that the real estate market returns to rationality, contributing to stable economic growth, and creating conditions for the long-term healthy, stable and balanced development of real estate.