Prohibit the policy of "changing business to living" and expand the city: the future apartment market will cool down

Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center recently released a special study saying that urban expansion is prohibited by the policy of "changing business to living". Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Xiamen, Foshan and other first-tier and some hot-spot second-tier cities have followed closely since Beijing introduced the commercial project control policy in March 20 17. In the future, the apartment market will still be dominated by destocking. It is expected that the policy will not be liberalized in the short term, and the policy may spread from first-tier and hot second-tier cities to other cities, and the apartment market will face a cooling crisis.

According to research, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu and other first-tier and some hot-spot second-tier cities have followed closely since Beijing issued the commercial project control policy in March 20 17. By August of 20 19, Xiamen issued the strictest "no apartment order", and all the commercial reforms were out. Then165438+1October 15 Foshan issued a new policy prohibiting businesses from changing apartments. Judging from the comprehensive control policy, it is a basic principle not to change it to residential use without authorization. For real estate development enterprises that change commercial real estate projects into residential purposes in violation of the plan, they all adopt a firm attitude of "once verified, seriously deal with it". Regarding "commercial housing reform" and "commercial housing reform", each city has different policies, which restrict apartments from entering the market. How to break the apartment market has become a difficult problem.

Distribution of major cities that have issued business policies since 20 17

Policy: it is the general trend to prohibit businesses from changing to living, urban expansion and future tightening.

According to the research, it can be seen from the distribution of cities with policies that first-tier cities and hot-spot second-tier cities are the main cities, and the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions are relatively concentrated. The overflow of the demand for restricted purchases in the residential market leads to the overheating of the apartment market, thus promoting the introduction of regulatory policies. The real estate market in first-tier cities and hot-spot second-tier cities is developing rapidly and the regulatory policies are relatively strict, so investors are more optimistic.

List of policies restricting enterprises from changing their residence in cities since 20 17.

The research points out that from the policy direction, it is the basic condition of the city to standardize the nature of commercial office and prohibit changing it to residential use. In addition, Beijing also stipulates that the minimum division unit shall not be less than 500 square meters, and the sale of second-hand commercial office projects must be paid in full. Shenzhen, Chengdu and other places focus on supply-side product design control; Beijing and Guangzhou stipulate that the purchased commercial real estate cannot be transferred to individuals, but only to legal entities.

In addition, the study also pointed out that Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and other cities have also introduced policies to encourage businesses to change their rents, providing another way out for commercial housing. Behind the introduction of the policy of "changing business to rent" is the current situation that a large number of commercial properties are idle in first-and second-tier cities in China. Due to various reasons such as tightening regulation, the backlog of commercial properties is serious. For developers, the vacant backlog of a large number of commercial property houses is not only a great waste of resources, but also a great sales pressure. Therefore, the landing of "commercial rent reform" is in line with the pace of market demand. However, in the final implementation process, all localities have encountered many problems. At present, the actual progress is not smooth, and the implementation policy still needs to be further refined.

The main direction of apartment policy

According to research and analysis, with the introduction of apartment control policies, the non-residential market will usher in major changes. There will be obvious differences between residential and apartment products, and commercial plots will definitely be sold by businesses in the future. At the same time, the introduction of relevant policies is also a big negative for the commercial market. Office products themselves are difficult to transform. Future commercial plots cannot be used as apartment products, and the product value is suppressed. The land price of commercial plots and residential plots has further widened. For property buyers, it is still cautious to start. Products such as finely decorated high-rise apartments have certain risks because of illegal acts such as adding floors and increasing construction area without authorization. At the same time, it also makes it more and more difficult for developers to take advantage of petty advantages and play the edge ball.

Urban trend: policies affect market activity, and transaction volume generally declines.

According to research, after the introduction of the policy, it has more or less affected the local commercial and residential apartment market. Six cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing and Dongguan, which introduced the policy of prohibiting businessmen from changing their residence in 20 17, were selected, and the influence of the policy on the apartment market was judged by combining the changes in the volume and price of the apartment market before and after the policies of each city.

Volume: Different cities have influenced the differentiation, with Beijing and Shanghai being fatally hit, followed by Guangzhou and Shenzhen. 20 17 After Beijing and Shanghai issued the policy in March, the apartment transactions of 20 17 and 20 18 fell sharply. In terms of transaction area, Jing 20 17 and 20 18 decreased by 85% and 97% respectively. Shanghai decreased by 94% and 64% respectively. According to the monthly data, in the first month after the introduction of the policy, that is, in April of 20 17, the transaction area of the apartment market in Beijing and Shanghai suddenly fell by 97.4% and 5 1. 1% respectively, and then the transaction collapsed. Shanghai's monthly turnover is less than1100,000 ㎡, and Beijing's monthly turnover is more.

On March 20 17, Guangzhou restricted commercial and residential changes, stipulating that commercial and residential changes could only be sold to enterprises. In the first month after the introduction of the policy, the transaction area dropped sharply to 73,700 ㎡, down 77. 1% from the previous month. 20 17 years, a year-on-year decrease of 42%. However, in 20 18 and 12, Guangzhou apartment policy no longer restricted the sales target. In 20 18 and 12, the sales area reached a new high since March 20 17, and the annual decline was only 65,438+.

20 17 May, although Shenzhen restricted merchants from moving their accounts, the policy did not restrict property buyers. In addition, there is a serious shortage of housing in Shenzhen, and the apartment market is relatively firm. In the first month after its introduction, the policy effect was not obvious. 20 17 May, apartment sales continued to rise, with a year-on-year growth rate of 66%. But on the one hand, affected by the policy, some property buyers have doubts about the appreciation space of commercial and residential apartments. On the other hand, Shenzhen commercial apartment 20 18 has been sold for five years, and the transaction area of 20 18 is 46% lower than that of 20 17.

Nanjing and Dongguan apartment policies have a moderate impact, and the transaction area has not changed much. Especially in Nanjing, 20 17 and 20 18, the transaction area of commercial and residential apartments decreased by 6% and 2% year-on-year. Dongguan issued the policy in June 20 17, and the transaction area of commercial and residential apartments decreased 18% in June 20 18. The overall impact is not great, but it is steady and declining.

Transaction price: the price impact lags behind the quantity, and the prices of other cities have fallen to varying degrees except Shenzhen. Judging from the transaction price trend, after the introduction of the policy, the price increase momentum is insufficient. Except for Shenzhen, house prices in other cities have declined to varying degrees. Among them, Beijing's price dropped the most. One month before 20 19, the average transaction price of Beijing apartments was 340 13 yuan/㎡, which was 4 1. 1% lower than that of 20 18. Since 20 17, the Shanghai apartment market has made great efforts to investigate the projects of changing houses to businesses, and to "tear down the walls, cut off the gas and cut off the water" for "similar houses". After 20 17, the apartment price in Shanghai showed a downward trend.

The average prices of Nanjing, Guangzhou and Dongguan in June 2065438+09 decreased by 6.6%, 4.4% and 4.4% respectively compared with 20 18.

Due to the scarcity of new residential projects in Shenzhen, although the policy has squeezed some demand, the price is still relatively firm. One month before 20 19, the average price of apartments in Shenzhen was 65 196 yuan/m2, up 18% from 20 18.

Impact: Policies affect market activity, and the volume of transactions generally declines. According to the research and analysis, to sum up, the policy of prohibiting businessmen from changing their residence has affected the activity of the commercial and residential apartment market, and buyers and speculators are more cautious about starting with commercial and residential apartments. The continuous decline in quantity will bring down the price. On the whole, Beijing and Shanghai are seriously affected by the policy, which is a fatal blow to the apartment market, with the volume and price falling together; Once again for Guangzhou. Nanjing and Dongguan had a moderate impact, with volume and price falling slightly. Shenzhen's market is special, with a serious shortage of commercial housing, and the apartment market is driven by high-end demand customers. After the introduction of the policy, the market still maintained an overall rise. But it has no reference significance for other cities.

The research and analysis pointed out that among the cities that have recently introduced policies, Xiamen is expected to have a greater impact on the transaction volume of apartments because of its stricter policies and violation of free land use rights. Foshan restricts the planning and construction of commercial land projects, prohibits the construction of apartment products, and sells such products in the sales process, misleading consumers. It is also necessary to publicize the difference between commercial projects and residential projects to buyers, and clearly put forward that commercial projects are commercial hydropower, and supporting facilities are not allowed to settle in schools, which is expected to have a greater impact on the market.

Policy impact rating of urban commercial and residential apartments

Present situation and trend characteristics of commercial market in typical cities

Beijing: After the introduction of the policy, the volume and price fell, and the commercial and residential apartment market "collapsed", making it difficult to survive.

Supply and marketing situation: 326 policy has a remarkable effect, and the transaction has fallen off a cliff. With the rise of housing prices, commercial and residential apartment products have gradually become substitutes for commercial housing because of their low total price and unlimited purchase. Since 2009, the transaction volume of commercial and residential apartments has gradually increased, reaching a peak in 20 16, with an annual transaction volume of 4.029 million ㎡, 2.8 times that of 20 15. However, from March 26, 2007 to March 26, 2065438, the new commercial policy stipulated that the projects under construction should not be sold to individuals, and the existing projects must be qualified to purchase houses and paid in full before they can be sold, which had a great impact on the policy. After 2065438+2007, the transaction of commercial and residential apartments plummeted, and the once hot is gone forever. The market was colder in 2065438+2008, and only 65438+ was sold in the whole year.

On the supply side, after the introduction of the policy, on the one hand, developers are more cautious about commercial and residential projects entering the market, on the other hand, new land cannot be built into commercial and residential apartments, so the supply is very small. After March 20 17, the supply of commercial and residential apartments in Beijing only increased by 79,900 ㎡ * * 647 sets, only at 20 165438. 20 19 0 supply, the apartment entered the era of digesting stock projects.

Transaction price: After the policy, the price dropped obviously, which still can't reverse the market of "valuable but no market". After the 326 policy, the prosperity of commercial and residential apartments is gone forever, the market transaction is cold, and the price increase motivation is insufficient. The data shows that the average price of 20 17 and 20 18 commercial and residential apartments is 44,675 yuan/m2 and 57,863 yuan/m2, respectively, up by 50. 1% and 29.5% year-on-year. The main reason is that the commercial and residential market is difficult to trade after the policy, and some commercial and residential projects with low quality in the suburbs are forced to withdraw from the market, or even. 20 19 after more than a year of policy digestion, some commercial and residential apartments tried to enter the market. However, due to the trading conditions, the transaction is not optimistic, so we have to reduce the price. The transaction price of 20 19 commercial apartment was 30,900 yuan/m2, down 46.6% year-on-year.

Inventory: Due to the slow transaction speed, the cycle of chemical removal is as high as 1 17 months. 20 18, apartment demolition is very difficult, there is no transaction for many months, and the supply is small. Only in June of 20 18, Vanke metropolis binjiang entered the market. However, the demolition is not optimistic, and the inventory area increased from May to14.27 million ㎡, up 3.6% from the previous month. Subsequently, commercial and residential apartments entered a situation of continuous low transaction, and the inventory declined steadily. By the end of 20 19 and 10, the inventory area1355m2 decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the cycle1/6.9 months decreased by 9 1.8% year-on-year.

Project: After the "326" policy, the market has a price but no market, so it is difficult to get rid of it and make a deal. After 2008, house prices rose, and commercial and residential apartments with low total price gradually became popular projects for developers. The number of projects entering the market gradually increased, reaching the peak in 20 16, 2 16 and 20 17. Annual projects after the policy 123, 20 16. In 20 18, only five projects entered the market, all of which were concentrated in Tongzhou district. 20 19 projects entering the market increased. By the end of 20 19 and 10, the transaction covered 27 projects.

Nanjing: The policy impact is moderate, the ceiling of the market size appears, and the price fluctuates slightly.

Supply and marketing situation: the average monthly turnover is about 40,000 cubic meters for four consecutive years, and the ceiling of market scale is gradually emerging. 2065438+March 2007, Nanjing issued a policy that commercial buildings should not be designed according to apartment type. With the strict control of commercial housing, the listing volume of such products will be greatly reduced in the future, and there will be fewer and fewer apartment products in the Nanjing market. After the introduction of the policy in March 2065438+2007, the turnover reached a small climax, with a turnover of 67,000 ㎡, up 144.6% from the previous month, and remained high in the following months. In April, the new supply in the apartment market was 12.2 1 10,000 ㎡, up 82.2% from the previous month. The reason is that the policy regulation of commercial and residential apartment products will become less and less common in the market, attracting a large number of investors. Since 20 16, the average monthly turnover of the market has fluctuated around 40,000 ㎡, and the ceiling of the market scale has gradually emerged. However, the surge in trading volume after the policy is only a short-lived phenomenon.

Transaction price: 2065438+March 2007, with a slight increase and little price fluctuation. Judging from the average transaction price, the fluctuation range is not very large. In March of 20 17, the price rose slightly by 24.6%, and in May of 20 17, the average transaction price reached the highest value of 2593 1 yuan/㎡. Nanjing's policy towards apartments is relatively mild. The policy stipulates that the height of apartments is limited to 4.8 meters to 3.6 meters, which mainly affects high-rise apartment products. Since then, loft and other high-rise apartments have become out of print. In Nanjing, there are a large number of small-sized residential products to choose from, and the advantages of apartment products are not great.

Inventory: The overall inventory is relatively large, and the de-chemicalization is slow. The de-chemicalization period of 20 19 and 10 is 17 months. The overall inventory of Nanjing apartment market is large, and the melting speed is slow. After the introduction of 20 17 commercial office rectification policy, the market inventory and chemical cycle showed a gradual upward trend. In September of 20 19, the inventory reached 796 1000 ㎡, and the decontamination cycle was as long as 17.4 months. Buying apartment products in Nanjing is mainly for the purpose of investment. The disadvantages of high loan and interest rate requirements and limited return on investment make it difficult to get the apartment off the shelf.

Guangzhou: After the "330" policy, the transaction fell off a cliff, and after the "12 19" policy was lifted, it rose obviously, and the average transaction price fluctuated and fell.

Supply and marketing situation: after the introduction of the policy, the transaction quickly turned cold, but the overall situation was better than that in the north. After the policy adjustment and relaxation, it stimulated the market to heat up. Due to factors such as residential purchase restriction and investment demand, the apartment market in Guangzhou has also risen. By March 20 17, the supply was 298 10000㎡, and the turnover was 32 13000㎡, reaching the highest value in recent years. In order to regulate and standardize the apartment market, Guangzhou has promulgated the influential "330" regulation policy, which clearly stipulates that the buyers of commercial apartments can only be legal entities, and individuals cannot buy apartments. The introduction of the policy made the Guangzhou commercial and residential apartment market instantly fall into freezing point, and the transaction volume fell off a cliff. By 20 18 and 12, Guangzhou issued a document to inform the "330 policy" that the sales targets of commercial and service properties are no longer limited. After deregulation, the sales area rebounded obviously, with a turnover of 206,500 ㎡ in that month. From 18 to 12, the transaction volume of Guangzhou apartments soared, and it remained high under the influence of policies and developers' sprint performance at the end of the year. Coupled with the inertia of online signing in February this year, the monthly transaction of the apartment after loosening is basically above 6,543,800 square meters. 20 19, the turnover gradually recovered to the level of non-regulation period.

Transaction price: the price fluctuated slightly, showing a downward trend as a whole. Judging from the transaction price, the average transaction price of 20 17 apartment is the highest in recent years. The regulation policy of 20 17 apartment has a slight impact on the price in the short term, and the price fluctuates slightly. April 20 194 15 yuan /m2. On the whole, from the introduction of the policy to 20 19 and 10, the average transaction price in the market is in a downward trend.

Inventory: after the policy, the inventory and chemical cycle increased obviously, and after the policy of 12 19, the inventory was steadily digested. The stock of apartments in Guangzhou is relatively large. Since the introduction of the 330 policy in 20 17, the stock has gradually increased, reaching 1 1.6 million ㎡ by the end of 20 18+0.6 million. The melting cycle is nearly 29 months, and the melting cycle is obviously prolonged. After the "12 19 policy" was issued, the market responded positively and the apartment inventory was steadily digested. The cycle of chemical removal decreased obviously, from June 20 19 to June 10.6.

Market forecast: the austerity policy is expected to continue to spread, and the apartment market is facing a cooling crisis.

According to the investigation and analysis, apartment products have become a hot spot in the market due to the restriction on residential purchases. Due to policy restrictions, buyers who are not qualified to buy houses or lack of funds regard apartments as transitional products of residential projects, which leads to a sharp increase in the transaction volume of apartment products in recent years. In fact, there are great differences between apartments and residential products in nature, supporting facilities, charging standards, taxes and fees. In recent years, the problems caused by commercial and residential changes have emerged one after another, mainly the infrastructure problems such as commercial water and electricity, as well as the rights protection problems brought by the inability to enjoy education and settle down. The apartment market is in constant chaos. It is the general trend to standardize the market policy of commercial and residential apartments.

The difference between residential and apartment products

Since 2065438+March 2007, first-tier cities and hot-spot second-tier cities, led by Beijing and Shanghai, have successively issued policies to regulate the market and run enterprises through business. First, the product design, planning, approval and other links of commercial projects are more standardized. From the successive introduction of local policies, it can be seen that the supply and transaction in various places have declined to varying degrees. Secondly, the policy has great influence and the scope of expanding the surrounding cities is wide, so it is foreseeable that the policy regulation will last for a long time. The goal of regulation is to crack down on commercial and residential apartment products and standardize the commercial market.

According to the research, from the perspective of the new supply in the apartment market, many apartment projects to be pushed have been suspended and postponed after the introduction of the New Deal in various places, and are being rectified according to the New Deal. It has been put on the market before the introduction of the New Deal, but there are still a large number of properties in the follow-up, which are also in the process of policy digestion. It is difficult to predict the resale situation. With the gradual strengthening of the policy, the number of projects that actually enter the market will be greatly reduced, and the situation of de-industrialization is not optimistic, and it is more likely to continue this state in the future.

From the perspective of de-urbanization of apartment market, urban projects with strict policy conditions are facing severe difficulties in de-urbanization. The overall transaction of the rectification policy cities has declined to varying degrees, and the market wait-and-see mood is getting stronger. Owners who have already bought commercial and residential apartments may be eager to sell them, which is followed by many projects that will gradually reduce prices and exchange prices for quantity.

At present, there is an overall surplus of commercial and residential apartment projects in the market, and the strict supervision of this product makes it impossible for developers to exploit legal loopholes to make commercial and residential apartment products. Although some cities have introduced policies to encourage businessmen to change their rents, there is a lack of supporting policies in the implementation process, and the overall implementation is not ideal. In the future, the apartment market will still be dominated by destocking. In addition, the policy is not expected to be liberalized in the short term, and the policy may spread from first-tier and hot-spot second-tier cities to other cities, and the apartment market will face a cooling crisis.