In September, real estate ushered in "price reduction rain"? Three news came one after another, and the property market may repeat 20 14.

Recently, Changjiang Industrial Group, a subsidiary of Li Ka-shing, won a local plot for HK$ 7,654,380,600. At the beginning of the year, it also spent HK$ 65.438+0.028 billion to buy a residential land with sea view. As we all know, since 20 13, he has sold a lot of real estate business in succession, and now he is sending out the signal of market layout again, which is huge for the current property market with strong autumn meaning.

But from another angle, a series of signals from real estate now make Li Ka-shing's actions seem a bit "eclipsed".

According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Institute, as of the beginning of September, the number of times to regulate the property market has exceeded 420 times, with an average of 50 times a month. The measures focus on controlling the rise of housing prices, the price limit of second-hand houses, land supply, intermediary leasing, and cracking down on speculation in school districts. According to this trend, there is a great momentum to set a new historical record in recent years.

In addition, Liang Zhonghua, an expert, released a report saying that judging from the price trend of second-hand houses in 70 cities, in July, the price increase in first, second and third tier cities dropped from 1.3% at the beginning of the year to 0.4%, from 0.4% to 0.2%, and from 0.3% to -0. 1%, turning into negative growth.

Throughout the past two years, we can easily find that the market rebound in first-tier cities is obviously better than that in other cities, whether it is the resumption of work in various places under the epidemic or the normal market trend, but don't forget that there are only four first-tier cities, and even the best sales situation can't be given to thousands of counties in hundreds of cities across the country. From this point of view, the property market and housing prices in most cities across the country have "stopped rising".

According to the data of Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau, the local second-hand housing transactions hit a new low. In August, the turnover was only 2043 sets, down 77.28% year-on-year, the lowest in ten years. In Hangzhou, the transaction volume of second-hand houses fell in July from the previous month, hitting a two-year low.

Although the second-hand house represents the real market sentiment, the new house transaction is also a reference index of real estate sentiment, and it is not an exaggeration to say that it is frozen rapidly.

According to the data of RealData, the volume of new housing market in 66 cities nationwide continued to decline in August. In terms of cities, only the first line maintained a growth rate of 20%, and the transaction volume of the second, third and fourth tier cities was not as good as that of the same period last year. Compared with the same period of 20 19, the growth rate of nearly 80% in cities below the second tier is less than 30%.

In Fang Shuo's view, whether it is a new house or a second-hand house, the transaction volume represents the mobility of real estate. Even if your house price is higher, the turnover will not go up, indicating that there is no basis for the market to rise. It can be clearly seen from the transaction data of a set of second-hand houses above that although the transaction volume in big cities can't go up, at least the housing demand is steadily released and the price can be maintained. For most cities below the third tier, the living environment of the future market will be more difficult.

At the end of August, Vanke wished Jiusheng bluntly that the operating space of developers in the market is already very small, and it is obviously not unrealistic to pin their hopes on relaxation measures. At Shimao's mid-year performance meeting, President Xu Shitan publicly announced that in the second half of the year, he would increase preferential price measures and implement dynamic management. And Sunac Sun Hongbin said frankly that the market in the second half of the year may be bitter, and sales and loans will be very difficult.

From the words of real estate developers, it is not difficult to find that the current market regulation is severe, the downward expectation has quietly formed, and enterprises seem to have plans to save themselves. Not only do they no longer fantasize about loose measures, but they also openly say that they want to "sell houses at a reduced price."

Many people may not know that the bulletin board of the people's court shows 1. As of August 23rd, 260 housing enterprises had applied for bankruptcy documents during the year. Second, by mid-August, more than 38 housing-related bonds had defaulted, involving an amount of 58.72 billion yuan, an increase of 82.4% over last year. Third, in terms of financing supervision measures for housing enterprises, some housing enterprises have at least stepped on a red line. In other words, the financing and lending of housing enterprises will still be affected to varying degrees in the future.

To put it bluntly, the reshuffle between real estate enterprises will gradually accelerate. The 90,000 housing enterprises in China will only be strong and strong, and the weak will soon be eliminated. Economist Ma Guangyuan once said that in the future, only 20% of real estate developers, only 20% of cities in China and 20% of houses can be bought. Knowing the three backgrounds, we can vaguely understand where the pessimism of real estate enterprises comes from.

It is not difficult to find that in the increasingly severe property market regulation environment, real estate may usher in a "price reduction rain" in September. Whether it is the market price or the transaction, or the pessimism and current situation of housing enterprises, it indicates that the market trend is welcoming changes.

Some people may say that these are changes in the macro environment, and ordinary people are completely irrelevant, unable to understand or feel that the market is changing. However, we can't ignore that "milk pouring" may be staged again: 100 years ago, there was overcapacity in dairy products and the demand was greatly depressed. In order to ensure profits, farmers would rather pour milk into the river to digest their stocks than cut prices.

Today, one hundred years later, the National Business Daily reported that Staffordshire, the main milk producing area in Britain, could not transport fresh milk in time because of the shortage of truck drivers and rising prices, and dairy farmers were faced with the dilemma of dumping fresh milk themselves. Pay attention to several key words: unsalable, high transportation cost. It can be seen that for consumer goods that are difficult to store for a long time, it may be more convenient to dump them directly under the circumstances of insufficient demand, increasing inventory and high storage cost.

The same is true of housing. Monthly mortgage payment, depreciation, property utilities, decoration and maintenance expenses incurred by the house. If you live in your own house, you can meet your daily commute, high-quality life, education, pension and other benefits at the same time. Nature is worth it. If you are a multi-suite holder based on speculation, there are houses everywhere today, the demand for housing is decreasing, and developers are facing various financial pressures. The phenomenon of "pouring milk" is being vividly staged.

For example, there are more than 330 prefecture-level cities, regions, autonomous prefectures and leagues in China. In the past 10 years, 184 urban population increased, 149 urban population decreased, accounting for 44.7%. The population decline is more in Gansu and Sichuan in the northeast and central and western regions. For example, there are 50 cities in China with house prices below 5,000 yuan, of which Hegang has the lowest house price, with an average price of only 2 133 yuan/square meter.

In addition, by the end of July, the generalized inventory of real estate in China had reached 38,044 1 10,000 square meters, and the generalized inventory of Guiyang, Shenyang, Tangshan and Shijiazhuang below the second line exceeded110,000 square meters, and Zhuzhou, Nanchang, Cangzhou, Taiyuan, Yueyang, Harbin and Foshan also reached more than 80 million square meters.

Obviously, in these cities with high inventory and few takeovers, the real estate can't increase in value, and the costs of depreciation, property utilities, monthly supply, etc. will not be reduced on weekdays, which means that if the house is held in hand for one more day, the money in the pocket will be less.

According to this trend, the property market may repeat 20 14.

Economist Liang Zhonghua sent a report, 20 10-20 16, and house prices in large, medium and small cities did not increase a penny. The reason is that new towns are frequently built everywhere, and houses are everywhere. By the end of 20 14, the housing area for sale in China was as high as 700 million square meters. It is hard to imagine the future of the vast number of small and medium-sized cities if it is not for the shed reform and money supplement that started later. Today's market is exactly the same as 20 14. With the shed reform gradually drifting away, if the city and county property market can't find a successor, I'm afraid the loss effect of holding real estate will continue to enlarge.

Fang said, you have something to say, but in the end it is impossible to repeat the weak situation of 202 1 for three reasons: the old reform began to replace the shed reform; Vigorously build affordable rental housing; Punish speculation. Three conditions have also laid a clear environment for the market trend. Coupled with the following three news, it is certain that in the next September, 10 month, the trend of price-for-quantity exchange for housing enterprises will gradually increase.