The two sessions did not mention the meaning of "real estate tax" and "long-term mechanism". Will house prices go up?

During the two sessions this year, real estate tax and long-term mechanism were not hot. The government work report reiterated that "housing is not speculation" and "policy for the city" was written into the report. In the face of the pressure of economic operation, the central government has maintained its determination to regulate real estate, adhered to the tone of "housing without speculation", and insisted on the return of housing to residential property.

With the effective control of the domestic epidemic, the real estate market is in a recovery channel, and the land market in some cities is hot recently. The industry believes that the future does not rule out the introduction of targeted policies to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

Reiterate that "housing is not speculation" and emphasize the flexibility of urban policy.

This year's government work report pointed out, "Adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market because of the city's policy."

This is the first time that the 20 18 government work report put forward "no speculation in housing". 20 19 did not mention it, and it was reiterated in 2020. The industry generally believes that this position is very firm and the government is determined to ensure the stable and healthy development of the housing market.

Looking back on the government work reports in the past three years, 20 18 put forward that "houses are used for living, not for speculation, implementing local main responsibilities, continuing differentiated regulation, and establishing a long-term mechanism to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market." 20 19 put forward "to better solve the housing problem of the masses, implement the main responsibility of the city, reform and improve the housing market system and security system, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market." It can be seen that the government work report on the real estate itself is becoming more and more concise, reflecting the long-term adherence to the positioning of "housing and not speculating". It is worth noting that compared with the past, this year's "policy for the city" was written into the government work report, and "implementing the main responsibility of the city" was deleted.

According to the analysis of China Index Academy, since the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic, many places have introduced flexible real estate control policies according to the needs of cities, which has played an important role in the smooth operation of the real estate market. In addition, policies such as relaxing purchase restrictions and restricting loans introduced by Guangzhou, Jinan, Qingdao, Leshan, Chifeng and other cities above 10 have been withdrawn. In the future, under the general tone of "housing and not speculating", local policies will be more flexible to ensure the smooth operation of the real estate market.

"1-April policy has become the biggest feature, and most of it belongs to saving enterprises and saving the market. At present, the policy of reducing the down payment has basically stopped, and the policy of loosening the purchase restriction will also be withdrawn, but some policies that subsidize the purchase of houses still have an impact on the market. " Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that this means that real estate regulation and control will remain at the early stage of high temperature. The central government's determination to curb the excessive rise in housing prices will not change. "From a policy perspective, the trend of slightly loosening the regulation of urban real estate with stable housing prices will continue in 2020."

The shed was changed and the curtain fell. The transformation of the old community has put forward the goal.

Since the beginning of this year, the central government has repeatedly stressed at important meetings that it is necessary to strengthen the renovation and upgrading of existing houses in order to improve the living conditions of residents. This government work report defines the specific objectives: "Newly start to renovate 39,000 old urban communities, support the installation of elevators, and develop diversified community services such as catering and cleaning."

Zhongyiyuan pointed out that 39,000 old urban communities were newly renovated, involving nearly 7 million residents, twice as much as last year, and the intensity was significantly increased. While improving the living conditions of residents, it can also expand domestic demand and promote effective investment. In 2020, the old community will focus on improving community supporting facilities and municipal infrastructure, and improve the level of public services such as community pension, child care and medical care. In this process, it will also create conditions for the involvement of enterprises, especially property service enterprises, and the market space will be further expanded.

The transformation of urban shanty towns is not mentioned in this year's government work report, but this year is the closing year of the new three-year shed reform plan. The analysis shows that the overall shed reform still has a certain volume, which may be significantly lower than the original plan. The special bonds for shed reform were resumed, but only for projects that have already started, and the proportion of superimposed currency resettlement dropped sharply. The support of shed reform to the real estate market has obviously weakened, or it has increased in the field of infrastructure investment.

"In 2020, the shed reform was not mentioned, and the shed reform curtain has fallen. The next step will be to transform the old community. " Jaco, dean of the branch of Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, believes that "more real estate participants are needed to join this field, including updating water, electricity, gas and other supporting facilities, installing elevators, and improving convenience markets, convenience stores, pedestrian streets and parking lots. Make the city more livable by improving facilities. "

The monetary environment is relatively loose, restraining the real estate financial bubble.

The reporter from Economic Daily-China Economic Net noticed that compared with previous years, there were not many contents about real estate this year, but the key words such as real estate tax, long-term mechanism and provident fund, which were widely concerned by the outside world before the meeting, were not mentioned in this government work report. In particular, the legislative process of real estate tax was described as "steady progress" and "steady progress" in the government work reports of 20 18 and 20 19 respectively.

Zhang Dawei explained that these keywords that were not mentioned before are good for the real estate market.

In terms of macro-economy, the government work report puts forward that "a prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and moderate." Comprehensive use of RRR to cut interest rates, reduce the RRR, re-loan and other means to guide the growth rate of broad money supply and social financing scale is significantly higher than last year. Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Innovating monetary policy tools that directly face the real economy must promote enterprises to easily obtain loans and promote the continuous decline of interest rates. "

"In the future, monetary policy is expected to continue to be loose. For the real estate market, it will also benefit from the ample funds. Judging from the mortgage data, the impact of interest rate cuts has gradually emerged. On April 20, the interest rate cut basically landed, and the mortgage of the first suite and the second suite was lowered by more than 10 basis point. In 2020, whether it is corporate financing of developers or personal mortgage loans, real estate is expected to reduce costs. " Zhang Dawei said.

According to the analysis of the Central Reference Institute, for the real estate industry, thanks to the loose monetary environment, the domestic financing of enterprises has improved slightly and the financing cost has decreased. At the same time, the cost of home ownership for buyers has also decreased. The improvement of funds at both ends of supply and demand has certain support for the real estate industry, and real estate investment can maintain rapid growth, thus promoting macroeconomic stability. In addition, under the goal of "ensuring employment", the expectation of a sharp drop in residents' income may be eased, which will also be conducive to market stability.

On May 26th, the person in charge of the relevant departments of the China Banking Regulatory Commission said that there are nine key points to prevent and resolve financial risks this year, one of which is to resolutely implement the requirement of "housing and not speculating" and constantly curb the real estate financial bubble.

"The stability of real estate itself plays an important role in economic stability. Only when housing prices are stable, land prices are stable and expectations are stable can economic stability be effectively implemented. It is expected that there will be no excessive stimulus policies for real estate this year, and stability is still the top priority. " Jaco pointed out that prudent monetary policy will be more flexible and moderate, reducing RRR and interest rates, refinancing and other means will promote enterprises to obtain loans and push interest rates down continuously. However, the financial control of the real estate industry will still be tight, and the irrational inflow of funds into the real estate market will be strictly controlled. ?