When will the new Lake Pearl City in Putuo District of Shanghai be demolished?

Shanghai house price trend chart in 2007-2008

Mr. Zhong is an amphibious investor in Shanghai stock market. He has been operating in the stock market for many years, and has invested and bought more than a dozen houses in Shanghai, earning hundreds of millions of yuan. In response to this round of rise in Shanghai's property market, he put forward the judgment that housing prices in the central city of Shanghai may skyrocket after the fall.

First of all, from the recent abnormal phenomenon that the price increase of high-end real estate is much higher than that of low-end real estate, the market has gathered a considerable amount of housing funds. He believes that large-sized units and high-priced houses are the first to rise, which is a sign that the market is bursting with hot money. Take Century Park in Pudong where he lives as an example. The price of high-end villas around him has more than doubled in a year, and single-family villas have risen from 30,000 yuan per square meter to 70,000 yuan. The news from Gubei Phase II, Pudong Greentown and Lujiazui Riverside Property is that the more expensive it is, the better it is to sell, and the more expensive it is, the faster it will sell.

Secondly, from his recent field observation in the sales office of high-grade real estate, many developers are generally unwilling to sell, which is completely contrary to the enthusiasm for selling as soon as possible a year ago. Now developers are hiding, selling as late as possible and selling less. When communicating with some real estate developers internally, he came to a conclusion: "When outsiders are hesitant, insiders are optimistic about the future of Shanghai real estate, and real estate developers' views on the market have never been so consistent."

For specific industries, Mr. Chong recommended three industries.

The first is Tangqiao in Pudong and Luwan area in Huangpu in the southwest of Pudong. Because the repair section of Metro Line 4 is about to open to traffic, this area is subject to the C-shaped block of the subway. Until now, the price is still low. He thinks the price in this area will rise sharply early next year.

The second area is Wuning Road Plate in Putuo District. With the rise of a large number of high-end office buildings, the quality of this area will be greatly improved. Because it is located at the entrance of Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway, there is at least no room for the property below 20,000 yuan to fall.

The third area he is optimistic about is Gubei area. He has always believed that according to the planning advantages of Gubei, it is not normal for house prices to hover below 30,000 yuan for a long time. With the high-profile entry of Cui Yuhaoting in Gubei, the house price in Gubei should be "4 at 5".

Due to the scarcity of supply, many areas in Shanghai have actually fallen into a building shortage. Therefore, Mr. Xu believes that after the summer, 10 is a very critical node in the Shanghai property market. It is not impossible for the market to snap up new houses and house prices to break out.

In mid-August, the third and fourth issues of public bidding for land use rights in Shanghai were announced. According to the two announcements, dozens of plots of land have been launched, of which only two are suburban residential plots of more than 200,000 square meters, and the rest are all industrial plots and commercial plots.

In fact, the average residential price within the inner ring of Shanghai has greatly exceeded the price of 20,000 yuan per square meter, which is 30%~40% higher than that at the beginning of the year.

According to the zoning, the housing supply of the Inner Ring Road in Shanghai will be extremely short in the future.

Huangpu District: At present, only in the southern region, there are three buildings with a price below 20,000 yuan/square meter. Among them, Shilin Garden, located near the Old Town God Temple, is probably the cheapest house in the center of Shanghai, with a price of only 1.8 million yuan per square meter. In the future, the newly developed real estate near Fuxing East Road is not only at this price. In addition to this property and the Huangpu Liyuan located on Liyuan Road, houses under 20,000 yuan in Huangpu District have been sold out. In the future, the price of all houses in Huangpu District will not be less than 20,000 yuan per square meter.

There are many areas in Huangpu District that can be rebuilt, mainly in Laoximen area and South Bund area, but the population density of the old area is very high, and it is very difficult to rebuild the old area. The future supply will be around three or four thousand sets, and the price will be around three or four thousand yuan.

Luwan District: The properties for sale in the whole Luwan District are mainly distributed along Xintiandi Plate and Xujiahui Road. The unit price of the former is 50,000-6,543.8+10,000 yuan; The latter now has only two properties for sale, namely Danshuiwan Garden and Yongye Apartment Phase II, with a price of about 28,000 yuan. In the future, Luwan District will take the lead in bidding farewell to the house price of 20,000 yuan per square meter. In the next few years, there will be only one major property supply in Luwan District, namely Orient Overseas Property located in Changle Road, Ruijin Road. It is estimated that the unit price will be around 60,000 yuan after opening.

Jing 'an District: At present, the properties for sale are mainly concentrated in the northern plate of Jing 'an, the first line of Changhua Road and Xinzha Road. The unit price of the property for sale is about 30,000 yuan. Now there are almost no properties with a unit price below 20,000 yuan in Jing 'an District. In the next few years, if it is a new relocation project, the unit price will not be less than 40 thousand yuan.

Xuhui Inner Ring Road: There are basically no houses below 20,000 yuan in the ring road of Xuhui District, and there is no land available in Xuhui District in the future. If a new project starts in Xuhui District in the future, the price will definitely be higher than 30,000 yuan per square meter.

Changning inner ring: the largest supply area in Changning district is in Gubei plate and its surrounding area. Except for the newly opened Royal Cuihaoting, the price is 35,000 yuan, and other properties are in the later stage of sales, with the price being more than 25,000 yuan. In the future, the housing supply of Inner Ring Road in Changning District is very short. The relatively large building is only the residential building of Xinhua Road 1 Huaihai Road. According to the lot price, the price of this property will not be less than 40,000 yuan.

Pudong inner ring: Pudong inner ring is the region with the largest supply of houses below 20,000 yuan in the inner ring. At present, the main 20,000 yuan supply houses are located in Tangqiao and Dongcheng plates along Pujian Road, and there are many choices from 1.3 million yuan to 20,000 yuan. When the third phase of Greentown Group Shanghai Greentown is about to close, the supply to Meihuafu will not be less than 300,000 square meters. In addition, the centralized supply area in Pudong of the Inner Ring Road is near Line 6. Due to the influence of a large number of low-priced houses in the hinterland of Pudong after the opening of Line 6, the house price in this area will be stable at around10.5 million yuan. But generally speaking, after the sale of these buildings in Pudong inner ring, there will be no new land entering the market.

Putuo Inner Ring Road: The houses in Putuo Inner Ring Road are mainly river view houses, and almost all the houses are concentrated in the narrow strip between Suzhou Creek and Zhongshan North Road. Now the price is 20,000 yuan per square meter. The main supply in the future is the new lake Pearl City, but the problem is that most of the subsequent plots of this property will be demolished. The land cost increases, and the later selling price cannot be less than 20,000 yuan.

Zhabei inner ring: Zhabei inner ring is divided into two layers, bounded by railway lines. To the south of the railway, the price will start to be 20,000 yuan higher than the average price, and the main supply in the future will be Taikoo Shing developed by Messing Group. The north of the railway line is mainly along Zhongxing Road, and the current price is about 17000 yuan. The supply of inner ring road in Zhabei District should be quite large, especially for the reconstruction project around Zhongxing Road, but it also faces the problem of high demolition cost.

Hongkou Inner Ring: Hongkou Inner Ring mainly supplies buildings along Line 4, and the current price is about 1.8 million yuan, while the unit price of buildings near Huangpu River can exceed 20,000 yuan. Among them, the Golden Bund Garden on the riverside may reach the sky-high level of 65,438+10,000 yuan per square meter after completion. Hongkou has no residential land in the market in recent years, and there will be almost no new supply in the future.

Yangpu Inner Ring Road: The houses in Yangpu Inner Ring Road are mainly located in Yangpu Riverside Zone. As it is farthest from the city center, the price of new houses within Yangpu Inner Ring Road is the cheapest, with a unit price of about 1.5 million yuan. The largest visible supply of Yangpu property market in the future will be Changyang Road, Dalian Road. Now there are many demolition plots, and it is estimated that millions of square meters of houses can be put into the market in the future.