What is the price-earnings ratio of self-sustaining property?

"In the past 20 years, the real estate industry can be described by a poem,' The spring breeze is proud of horseshoe disease, and Chang' an flowers will see you one day'. This is an arrogant era." Zhong Wei said, but it's different now. We must bite the bullet. On the one hand, we can't continue the dividend of the past 20 years, and more importantly, we have to accept the baptism of another era.

18 In September, "Boao 2 1 Century Real Estate Forum 2 1 Annual Meeting" was held in Shanghai. Zhong Wei, chief economist of Minsheng Canada Fund and director of the Financial Research Center of Beijing Normal University, delivered a keynote speech entitled "The baptism of the dividend era". Zhong Wei believes that there are indications that the possibility of relaxing the policy does not exist. Therefore, the high growth of the real estate industry is a trend, not a cycle. The real estate industry will become a survivor's game, and enterprises will go through a difficult transformation process, gradually get rid of the positioning of "developers" and be given many new roles.

"Elephants are dancing on the roof"

Over the years, the real estate market has also shown periodic fluctuations in the change of regulation rhythm. Among them, the precedent of "loosening" after strict management has appeared at least twice. Zhong Wei said that the first time was in the second half of 2009. "From the sharp decline in the industry to the comprehensive relaxation of real estate regulation, the process is only half a year." The second policy loosening occurred in July 2005+2065438, and it has been five quarters since the housing enterprises "helped each other". But for this round of property market regulation, Zhong Wei thinks there will be no possibility of loosening it.

He said that since March 20 17, there has been no change in the implementation of "homeowners do not speculate". During this period, it also experienced 20 18 Sino-US trade friction and the slowdown of economic growth caused by the epidemic in the first half of 2020. Nowadays, with the normalization of economic growth, the possibility of deregulation is even smaller. "In the most difficult time in the first half of 2020, real estate did not serve as a counter-cyclical regulation means to help local governments use land finance to alleviate the overall financial situation. It's not so difficult now, and it won't be done. " Zhong Wei said.

On the contrary, it is time to solve the problems accumulated in real estate over the years. Zhong Wei described the current real estate situation as "an elephant dancing on the roof". "When solving this problem, should we tear down the roof or shoot the elephant, or is there any way to make the elephant safely underground?" Zhong Wei said that the ultimate question for regulators is, what made the elephant climb the roof? In this process of reflection, the industry may undergo profound changes, which will not only affect real estate, but also affect the operation of China's financial system and capital market.

Is the real estate industry involved?

In recent years, with the real estate "cake" no longer growing, the industry competition is becoming more and more fierce, and many practitioners call the current industry situation "involution". Is the real estate industry really "involuted"? Zhong Wei said that involution means acquaintance circle +PB breaking the net (the price-to-book ratio falls below the net value). As far as the real estate industry is concerned, on the one hand, in recent years, due to the lack of fresh and cruel shocks from financial and other fields, the industry has become an "acquaintance society".

On the other hand, the P/B ratio of large listed real estate enterprises is "over 10,000". "'breaking the net' means that investors have doubts about the sustainable growth ability and sustainable management ability of various housing enterprises; Breaking the net also means that you are working hard, but the market has not rewarded you for your efforts. " Since the beginning of this year, the real estate sector of Shanghai and Shenzhen Hong Kong stocks has performed poorly, the share prices of some companies have continued to fall, and the P/E ratio and P/B ratio of housing enterprises are generally at a low level.

Based on these performances, Zhong Wei believes that the real estate industry has been involved. "Real estate belongs to the present, but not necessarily to the future." Zhong Wei said that the valuation of enterprises in the future is not cheap, such as the OTC market of PE and VC, or the secondary market, or the start-up market of some industries. "Enterprises with growth and future dreams will never be cheap, and we (real estate) are getting cheaper and cheaper now." He also said that involution will definitely hurt the real estate itself, as well as investors and suppliers. Under the idea of involution, if we continue to subtract products, supply chains and customers, the real estate industry itself will eventually get lost. "But we have gradually fallen into the strange circle of subtraction."

The new role of developers

Zhong Wei said, "The word development and sales should be forgotten. Although the development and sales model is still something to be done for a long time to come, it has reached a crossroads after all. " Therefore, real estate enterprises need to redefine, "only with a new positioning can we force new kinetic energy." Zhong Wei believes that future developers need to play three other roles.

The first role is a tall city operator. Urban operator refers to a large-scale urban planning operation role that is actually combined with urban renewal, old city reconstruction and so on, and tied with local governments. The operation cycle of these businesses is long, which requires developers to have large-scale spatial planning and operation capabilities, as well as long-term capital investment and recovery.

The second role is the operator of a better life, that is, the operation and management of self-sustaining properties such as commerce and office. This requires that enterprises not only have the ability to manage real estate, but also have the ability to manage real estate when they are self-sustaining. "Only if you have such real estate asset management capabilities, including open REITs capabilities, can the precipitated real estate flow like water and bring good capitalization returns."

The third role is the HOS operator, that is, he has the ability to operate and maintain the house under the background of "Home Ownership". In first-and second-tier cities, the proportion of affordable housing and rental housing provided by non-marketization will be higher and higher. This also requires development enterprises to have strong cost control ability and affordable housing construction and operation ability. "We should let go of the idea of how much to increase our goals next year and how much to increase our goals the year after ... You do business to make money, not just to make scale." Zhong Wei said that developers should gradually change their mentality and pay more attention to the stability of growth, profits, market value and investors' recognition, instead of just focusing on scale.