Is the property of the people's bank easy to handle?

After a week, the regulatory authorities once again voiced stability in real estate!

On June165438+1October 2 1 2022, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly held a national symposium on credit work of commercial banks to study the implementation of policies and measures to deploy financial support to stabilize the economy.

The meeting stressed that it is necessary to fully implement the long-term mechanism of real estate, implement differentiated housing credit policies due to urban policies, and support rigid and improved housing demand. Keep real estate financing stable and orderly, stabilize real estate enterprise development loans and construction enterprise loans, support the reasonable demand of individual housing loans, and support the reasonable extension of stock financing such as development loans and trust loans on the premise of ensuring the security of creditor's rights. Make good use of private enterprise bond financing support tools ("the second arrow") to support private housing enterprises to issue bonds for financing. We will improve the legal guarantee and regulatory policy support for the new supporting financing of special loans for Baojiao Building, accelerate the implementation of Baojiao Building, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

On the same day, Yi Gang, Governor of the People's Bank of China, delivered a speech at the 2022 annual meeting of Financial Street (000402) Forum, saying that the real estate industry is related to many industries upstream and downstream, and its virtuous circle is of great significance to the healthy development of the economy. At present, there have been some adjustments in the real estate market. We cooperated with relevant departments and local governments to make good use of the policy toolbox of "one city, one policy", which reduced the interest rate and down payment ratio of individual housing loans and supported the demand for rigid and improved housing. In view of the risk exposure of some real estate enterprises in the early stage, we will issue a special loan of 200 billion yuan to support the construction and delivery of sold houses, and study and establish a structural policy tool to encourage commercial banks to support the "guaranteed delivery of buildings". Recently, the "second arrow" to support private enterprises to issue bonds has been expanded to provide risk sharing for private enterprises to issue bonds, and private real estate enterprises are also within the scope of support.

Since June 165438+ 10, policies to stabilize the property market have been frequent.

165438+1October 8th, the dealers association issued the "second arrow" to support the expansion of private enterprise bond financing, and launched a financing plan for private enterprises including real estate enterprises, with an estimated scale of 250 billion yuan, which will be further expanded depending on the situation.

On June165438+1October 1 1, the Central Bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in Financial Support for the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market, which was promulgated from six aspects: real estate financing, property safety, risk disposal, consumer rights and interests, financial management policies and housing leasing.

1 14 10/0/4, the CBRC, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China jointly issued the Notice on the Work of Commercial Banks Replacing Pre-sale Supervision Funds by Letter of Guarantee, allowing commercial banks to carry out the business of replacing pre-sale supervision funds by high-quality real estate enterprises according to the principles of marketization and rule of law.

Behind the intensive introduction of policies is the reality that China's real estate market has not yet stepped out of the bottom range. Considering that there is a certain lag in policy implementation, the effect of stabilizing the property market needs further observation. According to the data of June 5438+065438+1October 15 released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the national real estate development investment was11394.5 billion yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year. Among them, residential investment was 8,652 billion yuan, down 8.3%. From 1 to 1, the sales area of commercial housing111790,000 square meters decreased by 22.3% year-on-year, of which the sales area of residential buildings decreased by 25.5%. Commercial housing sales108.832 billion yuan, down by 26. 1%, of which residential sales decreased by 28.2%.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told 2 1 Century Business Herald that the data shows that the real estate market has been in a downturn recently. Not only is the quality of the property market "Golden September and Silver 10" insufficient, but since 1 1, the bottoming trend of the property market has continued, and the credit risk of head housing enterprises has also been exposed.

As far as macroeconomics is concerned, in addition to the short-term fluctuations caused by the epidemic, the downward trend of real estate has been a main line of downward pressure on the economy since the second half of 2002/kloc-0. Next, in order to guide the real estate market to achieve a soft landing as soon as possible, in addition to strengthening the supply-side support such as "Baojiao Building", it is crucial and urgent to continuously reduce the interest rate of residents' mortgages and promote the stabilization and recovery of the property market. This is also a major force for steady growth and risk prevention and control in the fourth quarter and early next year. In his view, although the 0-year and 5-year LPR quotations 165438+ 10 remain unchanged, there is still room for downward adjustment of the 5-year LPR linked to the mortgage interest rate.

Stabilizing the property market focuses on stabilizing expectations.

What is the key to the recovery of the property market?

Many industry experts interviewed by reporters said that to stabilize the property market, efforts should be made from both ends of supply and demand. The supply side should smooth the financing channels of housing enterprises, especially private housing enterprises. Only when the capital chain is not broken can the real estate be guaranteed, and the demand side should boost residents' positive expectations for the property market and future income. These two points are the key to improve residents' willingness to enter the market.

Li, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, told reporters that the "Finance 16" of real estate and the "second arrow" of the central bank aim to promote the normalization of real estate financing environment, with the focus on increasing financing support for private housing enterprises, which is very important for restoring and stabilizing all financing, ensuring the funds needed for development and completing the real estate chain.

On the other hand, lowering the lower limit of mortgage interest rate in stages, adjusting the policies of restricting purchases and loans in some hot cities, reducing the down payment ratio and other related measures are all conducive to stimulating residents' housing demand, but it is crucial that the positive expectations of ordinary people (603883) for future income and work prospects need to be restored urgently, which is the key link for the recovery of real estate demand.

A senior real estate person also told reporters that the current problems facing the property market are not only the problems of the real estate industry, but also residents' expectations of economic income.

65438 10 9, China People's Bank released a questionnaire survey report on urban depositors in the third quarter of 2022, which showed that residents' feelings about current income and confidence in future income declined, and residents' income perception index fell to the level of the second quarter of 2020, and the confidence index of future income fell to the level of the first quarter of 2020. Worried about the uncertainty of the future, residents tend to increase their savings, consumption and investment.

Chen Wenjing, director of market research of the Index Division of the Central Reference Institute, pointed out to reporters that since the beginning of this year, the real estate market has been deeply adjusted, and the expectations of buyers and housing enterprises are weak, and the performance of both supply and demand ends is not as good as expected. On the one hand, the medium and long-term housing demand in China has weakened, and the real estate industry is bidding farewell to the era of rapid growth. On the other hand, many short-term factors also restrict the recovery of the industry. First, under the downward pressure of macroeconomics, residents' income expectations are reduced and their willingness to buy houses is reduced; Second, repeated epidemics in many places have objectively adversely affected the property market transactions; Third, in the downward stage of the market, some cities have expectations of falling house prices, which has aggravated the wait-and-see mood of buyers; Fourth, the buyer's concern about the unfinished auction has not completely disappeared; Fifth, some urban policies have relaxed expectations, and buyers have a heavy wait-and-see mood.

Chen Wenjing believes that although the atmosphere of the property market is still heavy, the positive effect of policy transmission to the demand side will gradually emerge. Since 1 1, many regulatory authorities have successively released heavy profits, providing more financial support for housing enterprises and property buyers, which will play a positive role in restoring market confidence at both ends of supply and demand. In the short term, the key to the market recovery still lies in the confidence and expected recovery of the demand side, and the expected improvement of the demand side still depends on the macroeconomic repair and the changes in the epidemic prevention situation.

She predicted that with the continuous implementation of favorable policies in the property market, the optimization of policies at both ends of supply and demand and the improvement of epidemic prevention policies will further restore market confidence, but it will still take time to transmit to the demand side, and the short-term market is still under pressure. After the macro-economy and epidemic prevention and control gradually improve in the future, the market is expected to gradually stabilize.

In fact, the positive signal of the property market is gradually emerging. Last week, Midea Real Estate and Xincheng Holdings (60 1 155) received financing support from the dealers' association, and the rack financing of 654.38+05 billion yuan applied for respectively was accepted, becoming the second and third private housing enterprises to receive financing support from the dealers' association after Longhu Group. In addition, five companies issued domestic bonds last week, including local city investment companies such as China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou (00 1979).

Foreign capital overweight layout of China real estate market

Interestingly, it is in the downturn of the property market this year that well-known international developers and asset management companies, including Blackstone Group, such as BlackRock, Daiwa Housing, Shangyi Sequoia, Kaide and Bofeng, have accelerated their land acquisition and layout projects in China, with investment paths involving office buildings, commercial CBD centers, long-term rental apartments, logistics parks, old city reconstruction and other fields. In addition, foreign capital also began to buy land in the land market, buy overseas bonds of venture real estate enterprises in the bond market, and arbitrage the stocks of real estate enterprises at low prices and high prices. Considering that China's real estate market is still depressed, some people think that frequent foreign investment is a kind of "bargain hunting" behavior, but some people in the industry think that this is a signal that China's real estate market is about to go out of the trough.

In view of the positive layout of foreign investment in China's real estate industry, Liu Shui, research director of the Enterprise Division of the Central Reference Institute, explained to reporters that foreign-funded institutions have strong cross-cycle operation capabilities. Potential profit value is the basic criterion of foreign investment, and the main criteria are overall market stability, industry development potential and current asset price advantage. In addition, foreign capital has a global vision, has experienced cyclical changes in the real estate market in many countries, is good at cross-cycle management, avoids cyclical risks, and actively enters during the market downturn.

On the other hand, the price level of real estate-related assets in China is low. At present, China's real estate market is in deep adjustment, the overall liquidity of industry assets is poor, and the asset price is relatively low. First, the land price, land auction in key cities, the premium rate of many plots is very low, even the reserve price. Recently, the premium rate of residential land transactions in 300 cities is less than 2%, which is at a low level in recent years. Second, the stock price of listed real estate enterprises is low. The average P/E ratio of listed real estate enterprises is around 5, and the P/B ratio is below 1, both of which are at a low level. Third, commercial property prices are low, short-term macroeconomic weakness, epidemic situation and consumption impact lead to low commercial property prices.

He stressed that in the long run, China's real estate industry has the certainty of sustainable development, and it is only in the necessary adjustment stage at present. China's economy can still maintain medium and high-speed growth, and the urbanization rate still has room for improvement, which can drive the sustainable development of real estate. China's overall economy is resilient, and the demand for commercial real estate will not be interrupted, especially the real estate sub-sectors such as logistics and leasing, which have good development potential and are favored by domestic and foreign capitals at present.

On June165438+1October 18, Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center released the special report "Foreign capital takes land in China market, waiting for long-term value realization". The report believes that this round of large-scale foreign investment in China real estate has the following three characteristics: First, foreign capital and Hong Kong capital tend to lay out core first-and second-tier cities, and pay less attention to third-and fourth-tier cities; Second, the layout of foreign capital and Hong Kong capital in China's real estate market does not value traditional houses, but prefers industrial parks, logistics parks and warehousing. Third, asset management companies and some non-performing asset investment companies prefer to buy bonds and stocks of real estate enterprises in China, trying to buy low and sell high for long-term investment.

According to the report, for foreign-funded Hong Kong-funded enterprises, a large-scale layout in the bottom period of China's real estate market will help boost the market's confidence in the China property market to some extent. Since June 165438+ 10, the central government's policy support for the real estate market has risen to an unprecedented height. From starting the "second arrow" to supporting private housing enterprises to issuing bonds, and then issuing the "Financial 16 Document" to rescue the market, the effect of boosting industry confidence is remarkable, and the China real estate market is expected to gradually usher in an inflection point. It is expected that after the real estate industry enters the recovery cycle, this part of the "bargain-hunting" foreign-funded Hong Kong-funded enterprises will be rewarded.