What is the black swan that affects the sharp drop in housing prices in China?

The factors that affect the decline in house prices are population outflow, rising loan interest rates and problems in the capital chain of housing enterprises.

1, population outflow, reducing the number of local buyers.

The most direct influence factor of a local house price is population. In cities with large population, housing prices are guaranteed, while in cities with small population, housing prices are weak.

2. The rising loan interest rate has increased the burden of buying a house.

Most people can only afford to buy a house through bank loans, and few buyers can afford the full amount. Then you need to repay the interest through a bank loan, and the loan interest rate is particularly important.

In recent years, the high interest rate of commercial housing loans has caused great pressure on property buyers, who often need a lot of money to buy a suite.

At present, most people's salary growth is still very slow, and they can't win the loan interest rate at all.

In this context, some property buyers often have no choice but to give up the dream of buying a house, because their wages simply cannot afford the interest on the loan!

3. If there is a problem with the capital chain of housing enterprises, it is necessary to withdraw funds.

Another important factor in the price reduction of houses is the break of the capital chain of real estate developers.

We know that most real estate developers can start such a big business by borrowing money from banks. After the loan expires, it needs to pay a lot of interest.

When paying bank interest, enterprises need to see whether their book capital is sufficient. If it is not enough, you need to sell assets or even lower the house price to clear the inventory.