First half financial street real estate

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The bull market is coming, braving the wind and waves.

However, a wave of stock market and property market rotation reaction tells us that it may take 10 years to make money without buying a house.

Want to buy a house now, is it new or second-hand?

What should I do if I miss the new one and the second-hand house rises again?

If you have this problem, don't panic, there are many friends who plan to buy a house in Shenzhen, and they are struggling to wait for a new one or buy a second-hand house.

"Innovation" is undoubtedly the key word of Shenzhen property market in the first half of 2020. The price of upside-down second-hand houses has made many buyers rush.

But after all, the supply of new houses is limited, and there are not many that can really be called "new prices". Whether the buyer can buy it depends on luck, not to mention making a new one is not necessarily profitable, and the holding cost should be calculated well.

Although there are no supply restrictions on second-hand houses, the market has fluctuated greatly recently and it is easy to chase after high prices.

There were 20 new listings in July, and not every one was worth playing.

"Innovation" was originally a stock market term.

It means to subscribe for newly issued stocks, because the issue price and market price of stocks benefit from a certain price difference. Later quoted in the property market, that is, the prices of new and second-hand houses are upside down, describing that if you buy them, you can earn the difference.

For many property buyers, it means that compared with second-hand houses, the renovation of the property market will save tens of millions of expenses. However, this is a lottery game after all, depending on luck.

What's more, not all new houses on the market can be called new houses, at least they need to be more affordable than second-hand houses in price.

At first glance, the price scissors difference between these new sites and the second-hand ones waiting to enter the market is not big, and there is no comparability with the price difference of Financial Street. For example:

Coupled with the current unstable market, property buyers need to carefully consider their own needs, rather than rushing in directly when they see a new plate.

Playing new is not a definite bet.

Like the stock market, making a new one is not a definite bet.

When the market is hot and dry, we should be more careful, that is, the cost in the process of innovation, otherwise the increase in the book just looks beautiful. Today, I will give you a quotation and discuss the cost involved in the new process.

Take Huaqiang City, which will enter the market in the near future, for example. At present, the rumored blowing price is 50 thousand+. Suppose that at this price, the total price of 72㎡ products is 3.6 million, and the down payment is about 165438+ 10,000.

Many friends think that the cost is only down payment 165438+ 10,000, which is actually wrong.

△ Setting the unit price is convenient for calculation, and the specific building filing price is subject to the developer's announcement. Take Financial Street, a hot plate, as an example, 4.69 million new houses won the bid, and 5.77 million houses were sold to break even.

Suppose it takes 2 years to hand over the building and get the license, and the house has been sold for 3 years, and it can only be traded again after it has been held for at least 5 years.

Take the purchase price of 72㎡ 50,000/㎡ and the down payment of 30% 165438+ 10,000 as an example. The holding costs in these five years include:

Mortgage interest

Holding time is closely related to interest cost. According to the shell APP mortgage calculator, the commercial loan is 2.52 million yuan and the total interest is 2.3224 million yuan, based on the loan for 30 years and the equal principal and interest.

The accumulated interest paid in the first five years is about 599,400.

Opportunity cost of down payment and monthly principal payment

In fact, your own investment principal also needs to calculate the opportunity cost, which is the time value of money.

We all know that today's 1 ten thousand is not equal to the future 1 ten thousand. To predict whether an investment can be profitable in the present future, it is necessary to convert the future income into the present value in some way.

Take the bank time deposit with an annual interest rate of 2.75% as reference.

Down payment 165438+ ten thousand, five-year monthly principal of 207,500, and bank income after five years179,700.

Taxes and administrative expenses

The difference between a new house and a second-hand house lies in taxes and fees.

Among them, deed tax, stamp duty, house maintenance fund, ownership registration fee and transaction fee are the most payable for new houses, and the taxable amount of deed tax for new houses = tax basis × tax rate.

Specific tax rate: the first set below 90㎡1%; 90- 144 flat (inclusive)1.5%; 144 is above 3%; The second set covers an area of 3%; Non-ordinary residential and commercial 3%.

3.6 million x1%= 36,000

Then, a down payment of 30% will cost a 3.3 million house for five years:

Monthly interest+opportunity cost of down payment and monthly principal+deed tax = 599,400+179,700+36,000 = 86.5438+0.5 1 10,000.

In other words, the house with a starting price of 3.6 million and 72㎡ will rise to at least 4 1 1.2 1 10,000 in five years, and the unit price will be 57,000/㎡, so as to cover the input cost.

Other risks

Although innovation can save you higher costs. However, for first-time home buyers and house-changing buyers, the risk is that the winning rate of popular new sites is low. If you miss it, do you have a new plan?

However, the market is not stable now. When you can't hit those hot spots, you can look at the second-hand houses, which are easily affected by the cost caused by the fluctuation of house prices, and it is also easy for sellers to raise prices or break their promises. Therefore, these factors need to be carefully considered instead of forgetting their main needs.

Compared with the new house, the advantage of the second-hand house is that it can be moved in immediately, without having to rent a house and wait for the delivery time.

It is recommended to look at the second-hand house at the same time when you are new, and don't just stare at the new house.

Just how to make a decision? Advanced industry advice

I'll help you calculate the new cost, so how do you buy it now?

@ 京京京京京京京京京京京京京京京京京京京京京京京京京 (In no particular order)

Pan Chuancan, Deputy General Manager of Yiju Enterprise Group Shenzhen Company:

You only need to do what you can, and you should not rush the method. In the fluctuating market situation, you should choose a property that suits you, such as a school district and a hardcover property along the subway. For housechanging customers, it is recommended to focus on stability and not to chase after heights. The current market is irrational.

Managing Director of Jiangmeilian Property Shenhui:

After the epidemic, a pent-up purchasing power was released, and then the whole transaction volume became active, which also led to a significant increase in house prices throughout the first half of the year, especially in some school districts and areas where new sites entered the market.

Therefore, the regulatory authorities have begun to pay attention to this situation and introduced some measures. At present, it is in the game period between owners and buyers. It is suggested that just-needed and changing tenants can compare the cost performance of each district calmly and objectively before entering the market, and should not chase hot areas.

Zheng Shulun, Managing Director of Shenzhen Zhongyuan:

First look at the market transaction data: 44,000 sets of second-hand transactions in the first half of the year, up 41%compared with the first half of last year; However, 45,989 sets were sold in the second half of last year, down 4.3% from the previous month. First-hand new houses sold 16727 sets, down 5.4% from the first half of last year; Compared with 20,203 sets in the second half of last year, the chain decreased by 17.2%.

In June this year, I felt that the market was very hot, but after half a year, in fact, the transaction volume was not much different from that of the past few years. Don't forget the first quarter so soon. Due to the Spring Festival holiday and the epidemic, the market bottomed out. It can be said that June is only a late spring.

Buyers should not affect their judgment because of a month's market rebound. Buying a house is a long-term decision that needs comprehensive consideration.

Pan Chuancan:

Jiang Dao:

You can choose the houses along the newly opened subway lines, such as Line 6, 10, and the upcoming Line 8. At present, housing prices in some areas along the line are still relatively low. Like Luohu, prices in some areas are lower. Although old, the supporting facilities are still perfect compared with emerging areas.

Zheng Shulun:

At present, affected by the price limit, the price of new houses will be more attractive, but after all, the housing price in Shenzhen is not cheap, so we have to use time to change space and buy a house a little farther from the urban area.

It is best to choose the property along the rail transit. The rail transit property that has been built and used may be a little more expensive, and the planned rail transit can also be considered.

Pan Chuancan:

It is possible to introduce some policies, which will help reduce the current temperature of the property market, and more importantly, curb real estate speculation, which is also beneficial to the long-term stability of the entire property market.

Jiang Dao:

The second quarter is a bit overheated, and the regulatory authorities will formulate policies in a targeted manner. Of course, the purpose is to make the whole market stable and not too impetuous. Because the development of Shenzhen needs talents, the rapid rise in housing prices will also lead to brain drain.

Zheng Shulun:

There is no way to estimate the policy, so you don't have to consider too many things that you can't control. Considering your own conditions and requirements, it is most important to find a house that suits you.