Is chemical industry a procyclical sector?

Yes, in the past few decades, the rapid economic development of our country is actually driven by investment, and the main forces that determine the growth rate of investment mainly include: real estate investment+infrastructure investment+manufacturing investment. The general industrial chain relationship between them is as follows: coal, nonferrous metals → building materials, steel, cement, chemicals, construction machinery, household appliances, automobiles → real estate, infrastructure and so on. So real estate, infrastructure, building materials, steel, cement, engineering equipment, chemicals, coal, nonferrous metals, home appliances, automobiles and so on. All belong to procyclical industries. In addition, economic development is inseparable from the support of the financial system. When the economy is good, the financial industry also makes money. Therefore, the financial industry is also a pro-cyclical industry.

First, the meaning of procyclicality

Pro-cyclical stocks refer to stocks that rise and fall with the economic cycle in a good economic environment. Pro-cyclical stocks include banks, real estate, building materials and infrastructure. Generally speaking, industries closely related to economic development are obviously pro-cyclical industries, such as banking, real estate and infrastructure. When the national economy develops at a high speed, the main sources of investment, such as real estate and infrastructure, will grow very fast.

It mainly includes banking shares, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China shares, Agricultural Bank shares, Bank of China shares, China Construction Bank shares, Bank of Communications shares, Huaxia Bank shares, Minsheng Bank shares, China Everbright Bank shares and China Merchants Bank shares. Real estate stocks, Vanke A, Century Xingyuan, Shenzhen Ye Zhen A, china baoan, Shenzhen Property A, Shahe, China Merchants Property, Shenfang A, COFCO, Hualian Holdings, Baoan Real Estate, Shenzhen Great Wall, AVIC, Oceanwide Construction, Shenzhen Commercial Bank, shenzhen huaqiang, Yihua Real Estate, Financial Street and Lv Jing Holdings. In terms of building materials, Stock City Investment Holdings, China Railway Second Bureau, Shanghai Construction Engineering, North International and South Building Materials. Infrastructure shares, building decoration, construction machinery, cement building materials, highway and railway bridge construction, high-speed rail and other sectors.

Second, the pro-cyclical segmentation of the industry fund market.

1, steel theme fund. Among the steel theme funds, two OTC funds, Penghua Steel Classification and Zhongrong Zhengguo Steel Industry Index Classification, were established much earlier and the scale was relatively large, and Penghua Steel Classification was superior in performance.

2. Coal theme fund. Among the coal-related funds, experienced citizens can know which one is good and which one is good at a glance, which is the classification of China Merchants Securities Liquor Index, which is managed by Hou Hao, a cattle-based company.

3. Colored theme fund. This is also a good way to pick out what is better. Off-site Xincheng CSI 800 non-ferrous index is better, and on-site Southern CSI Shenwan non-ferrous metal ETF is stronger.

4. Resource-based thematic funds. This kind of fund basically includes the industrial chain related to commodities.

Third, are pro-cyclical funds suitable for long-term holding?

Pro-cyclical refers to industries that have strong correlation with domestic or international economic fluctuations. Typical industries include bulk raw materials, chemicals, banking, securities and real estate. Simply put, the core factor affecting cyclical fluctuations is the supply relationship. As the supply decreases, the demand increases, and the demand exceeds the supply, which leads to the boom cycle of the industry. On the contrary, due to the increase in supply and the decrease in demand, bubbles are generated and the economy is sluggish.

Therefore, compared with other index funds, pro-cyclical index funds are not suitable for long-term holding, and the investment strategy of low ambush and high selling should be adopted. Because the quasi-periodic index fund completely tracks the index and has obvious periodicity, if it doesn't grasp the rhythm for a long time, it may go from low point to high point and then back to low point after a cycle, and finally the income in its hand is only imaginary, so it is very important to grasp the rhythm of buying low and selling high.