How important is a strong industry to China?

The following excerpt is from How Important Is a Complete Industrial System to China?

Author: Chen Jing

First, the role of a complete industrial system is mainly reflected in foreign competitiveness and national defense military strength.

In foreign trade competition, a more perfect industrial system can reduce the cost of supporting industrial production, help to produce products with high quality and low price, and strengthen the competitive advantage of domestic products in international trade. Due to the influence of globalization, many raw materials, semi-finished products and products imported from abroad have advantages over domestic production, so there is no need to maintain a complete 100% industry, which will increase the cost of products. This is why the industrial systems of other countries are not completely complete except China.

The greatest value of a 100% industrial system is reflected in the war, which can independently produce all war products and will not be stuck by foreign countries. In the war between a small country and a big country, a big country can completely destroy a small country with a few cutting-edge products, but in the war between big countries, the gap in cutting-edge technology is not so great that one side is completely unable to resist. So at this time, it is more realistic to produce a large number of mid-range weapons quickly than to produce a few expensive high-end weapons slowly. For example, see the tank battle between Germany and the Soviet Union.

Since the end of World War II, the world has been dominated by whites, monopolizing the largest amount of resources and profits in the world. China is an anomaly in this international system. * * * The producer has a saying, "If you struggle for peace, you will live in peace; Seek peace by concession, and then die peacefully. " China not only had a military conflict or even a war with the United States and the Soviet Union, but even encountered the situation that the Soviet Union and the United States made plans to carve up China. Therefore, the dangerous moment of national subjugation is around China's neck, and an absolutely complete industrial system without outsiders has become the most realistic choice for China.

Of course, so far, a complete industrial system is still very valuable to China, which is of great significance to the industrial upgrading of China. Even with all kinds of high-tech products criticized by people, China ranks among the top in the world in many technical capabilities. Backward and advanced, it depends on who you compare with, what's more, China is catching up in technology, and the speed of mergers and acquisitions is so fast.

Why a complete industrial system is so important to a country. This is because if the industrial system depends on the outside world, the whole economic system of this country may be seriously damaged in the conflict.

Although many things in China still need to be imported (such as chips). If the supply is really cut off, China can also produce low-end chips for use. Although the yield is low, the power consumption is high and the speed is slow, it is enough to support the industrial system.

Therefore, a complete industrial system is of great significance in national security. No matter which country wants to threaten it, they can't bring down its economic system through a trade embargo. This makes a country occupy a favorable position in international conflicts.

From the perspective of economic development, because a country's industries are relatively complete, it is easy for foreign investors to find local manufacturers when investing, which greatly reduces the cost of product production (importing parts from abroad requires not only freight but also customs duties). This makes many industries in China have to stay in China, even though the labor cost is obviously higher than that in many developing countries (of course, the perfect infrastructure is also an important reason).

Therefore, a complete industrial system is not only conducive to national security, but also conducive to economic development.

Two, now the world has a complete industrial system, I'm afraid only China, the United States, the European Union, and Russia are reluctant. Japan is half, and it is severely limited by natural resources. Among them, the United States and the European Union are the strongest, and basically all fields can reach the world leading level. China is comparable in basic materials, precision instruments and electronics, but it is really poor. Russia is seriously degraded.

Many things in the United States are not produced, not to say that they cannot be produced. It's just that production is unprofitable. The specific technology, it is still there. If necessary, the United States can still restore relevant production capacity.

Especially the existence of Batumi, the arms embargo began in the late 1980s. Beihang University can't buy genuine adobe, and the United States recently banned Intel from exporting Xeon processors to China. Hehe, there is an embargo under the free market. (Sitting in Guan Jun [ID:china_2049] Interrupt: Do you know what Octopus is? Let me explain something to you. Batumi is the abbreviation of Paris Coordinating Committee, and its official name is "Export Control Coordinating Committee"? It was secretly established in June of 1949 1 1 at the suggestion of the United States. Because its headquarters is in Paris, it is often called "Paris Coordinating Committee". The purpose is to restrict member countries from exporting strategic materials and high technology to socialist countries. The embargo list includes three categories of tens of thousands of products: military weapons and equipment, cutting-edge technology products and rare materials. 1 April 19941day, Batumi was officially dissolved. However, its list of prohibited items was later inherited by the Wassenaar Agreement and continues to this day. )

Manufacturing industry. It is said that after a certain five-axis comes out, the price of foreign products will be directly lowered. And the domestic five-axis is said to be rough.

But this thing was 100 years ago, when others ate meat and you drank northwest wind. It was 60 years ago that others ate meat and you drank leftover soup. 10 years later, you still drink soup, but people can only follow suit.

This thing is in a hurry, so let's scrap it. We must make up our minds to continue to lose money for decades. What you see is not how much money your products earn, but whether the price of imported products can be halved again.

Let's take the communication industry as an example. Let's talk about the switch first. 15 years ago, a board cost 200,000 yuan. 10 years ago, 65438+ million. This is normal technological progress. But please note that it is not the technology used that is more NB. They are all mature technologies for more than ten years. However, if people monopolize technology, it will take five years to reduce the price by half.

But the most pit is the diversion plate, which is just an iron plate, used to fill the empty slot, divert the flow and control the temperature of the equipment. It's 35 dollars each. 1 kg body weight It's not stainless steel yet . . No price reduction for many years. Can you say this is technology? But people monopolize the switching technology, and other brands don't recognize it. You dare to install it yourself, and the whole machine is not guaranteed.

10 years ago, domestic switches began to have high-end products. There are too many bugs. But the price is low, so it is also used in some small cities. It has been used for 3 years and is very stable. The failure rate is 1.5 of European and American products. As soon as this result came out, the price of changing the machine began the diving process.

65438+ million boards, five years later, 65438+ million boards, five years later. . . Many European and American factories closed down and disappeared. . . .

As for the 35-dollar iron plate Free delivery. Later, it was made clear that in fact, it's okay without iron plate, so don't match it. ...

That is the reality. What matters is not whether your products are exquisite or not. But whether my own ability can make foreigners honestly reduce their prices.

The laggards are very sad and can only bear it. The so-called win-win situation This is actually a beautiful lie.

At first, it was backward and incompetent, and people said that 10 thousand would be 10 thousand. Later, the laggards had some abilities. People say I earn 5000 yuan, so don't come out to grab the market for your products. . . . All right, win-win. . . .

In the past, the industrial level of our country was very low. The reducers used in the cement mill are sold abroad100000 sets, but the domestic reducers can't develop stable products. After localization, foreign large reducers basically withdrew from the domestic market. Because domestic production may only be 3 million. Similarly, the prices of all kinds of equipment in the whole system have also come down. Then there is the great development of the domestic cement industry. Today, the price of cement has dropped to the price of cabbage. Then the cement industry developed greatly, and the technology accumulation of Sinoma International, the world's largest general contractor of cement projects, made Sinoma International's overseas general contracting business account for 80% of its own business today. This has led to the great development of cement industry in Africa and Southeast Asia. Can you imagine the time when there were few cement factories in Africa and only cement importers five years ago? So, I'm glad to hear that China is a developed country's shredder. Life in Europe didn't come out of thin air. When Chinese people can't make things, when they can sell things from five dollars to fifty dollars, have you ever thought that 80% of your life's work will be spent in Europe and America? Can let them have a face that is not bullied.

Or the reducer industry. See how European and American countries treat the villain's heart with the belly of a gentleman. In 2005, Siemens acquired a company, which was no big deal for the giant. The acquisition of 654.38+0.2 billion euros is not too big or too small. But it has profoundly affected the pattern of the world reducer industry. The acquired company is called Flanders, which is the first in the reducer industry. After being acquired by Siemens, Siemens filled its own gap in this respect. But for General Electric, which has extensive competition with Siemens in many fields, this is a terrible thing. Especially in the field of wind power, the key component of wind power main engine is reducer. Prior to this, GE mainly purchased from Flanders, and GE and Siemens were the most direct rivals in this field. One of these two companies is an American giant, the other is a German giant, and Flanders is also a German company. Even if we don't cooperate closely, it won't affect the cooperation between GE and Flanders. The ending of the story should be that everyone lives a happy life together. It's just a story. GE's most direct reaction was to find a company to cooperate in China, and cut off the cooperation with Flanders. Because they were afraid that Siemens would get stuck at a critical time, they cultivated a China company, which changed the output value from billions to billions in just a few years, and the shipment of wind power hosts ranked first in the world. International giants all know that the neck is not good. I was thinking that after so many industries in China were occupied by China people, I found that foreigners earned so much money. In this case, many people still treat foreigners with pure eyes. Should they be stupid or naive?

Third, do you think you can buy manufacturing with money? Buy it if you want?

What I want to say is that if an instrument is not made in China, foreign products will be sold to you at twice the price. Only by producing truly competitive domestic products will the price drop sharply.

Failure to industrialize means that you need to purchase at a high price in the international market, and you will face technology blockade and export ban at any time. Failure to industrialize means that the huge domestic procurement demand only fattens up a group of comprador, while only a group of top engineering students in China can join international high-tech enterprises to get high salaries, while others can only join OEM with difficulty.

Give some examples of well-known industries and make a superficial discussion.

1, localization of integrated circuit industry.

Whether it is the basic industries such as precision machine tools and CNC machine tools, or the cutting-edge industries such as missiles, radars, ships and aerospace, it is necessary to take integrated circuits as the core. 8086 chips needed to be imported in the early 1980s. How much foreign exchange was there in China at that time? Earn foreign exchange by exporting textiles, handicrafts and furniture, and buy 8086/8088 chips from the international market at a high price. High-end chips are often banned by Batumi. This sour taste is simply unbearable.

The main task of a group of microelectronics institutes, such as Institute of Microelectronics of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Microelectronics of Tsinghua, and Institute of Microelectronics of Fudan University, is to deal with the technical blockade of mainstream manufacturing technology in China microelectronics industry by many countries. At that stage, the main work of microelectronics institute was to develop the production process of integrated circuits. In short, when a microelectronics institute has made a 0.6um integrated circuit production process, we will send a message to the United States and Pakistan: China has mastered this technology. If your country continues to block the export of 0.6um technology chips to China or sell them to China at a high price, then your country will develop and produce them on its own within five years, and will no longer import your chips. Therefore, the trade association of American imperialists will lobby Congress to approve the opening of the export of this product to China.

At present, China is still importing a large number of chips, but on the one hand, mid-range and below chips can definitely be made in China, and only high-end chips are imported.

Tell you a story. When making analog integrated circuits and RF circuits, what should I do if I want to learn from some important foreign chips? We will polish off the package first, and then take out the chip; Remove the upper layer of the chip layer by layer by etching, then take photos, manually draw the layout, analyze the circuit, and simulate with the spectrum simulation tool, Ohyeah! My country's ability to learn, understand and digest is the pride of the whole world.

Relying on such barbaric growth means, the integrated circuit industry began to develop in about 90 years. The industry first carried out cutting-edge research and development with the goal of mastering advanced manufacturing technology, and obtained the right to import new chips; Then, through various channels, we sought the world's advanced chip foundry to settle in China, so Taiwanese Zhang Rujing set up SMIC in Yizhuang in 2000 and encouraged the development of integrated circuit industry in 2004. Colleges and universities train at least 2000 engineers every year and send them to the IC industry. In 2007, Infineon, Qi and other integrated circuit enterprises in Ann also flourished.

I don't know if any company acquired the core technology of the international integrated circuit industry during the financial crisis in 2009, but what I know is that by 20 14, after 25 years of development of the integrated circuit industry, the 12 inch 28 nm plasma silicon etching machine independently developed by North Microelectronics Company passed the whole process verification of SMIC production line and won the order. This is a fucking zero breakthrough!

2. Localization of rail transit equipment

It is very difficult to keep up with the development of the international community. China can't be at the low end of the international industrial chain for a long time, let alone be controlled by others in key technologies and equipment. China can't buy foreign modernization. (Unless 65.438+300 million people work overtime to farm and process for others, the modern life of 50 million people can be supported.)

The field of rail transit is a standard example. I remember that by 20 10, the national development and reform commission approved the construction of 50 subway lines in 35 cities of 25+10 * *, and each subway cost about 20 billion yuan, including at least 8 billion lines of electromechanical equipment (locomotives, tracks, shield machines, catenary, screen doors, automatic fare collection, etc.). ). Only by forming the R&D and manufacturing system of China rail transit equipment can the subway cost be effectively reduced.

If you buy all imported equipment, the cost of mechanical and electrical equipment will rise by at least 50%. Who will benefit from spending so much money? International product manufacturer! Their gross profit is at least 50%, so the engineers of product manufacturers can work five days a week, five hours a day, and have more than one month's holiday a year, and they all go to China in business class plus five-star hotels. The product agent spent 5% of the commercial cost, made about 8% of the profit, and got the value-added tax 17% (subway construction is the investment of the central and local governments, and the value-added tax is left-handed or right-handed), import tax rebate, customs clearance and so on. Agents have done 400 billion business, with only 30 billion profits left, and only about 3,000 jobs have been directly created.

If localization is realized, how many people will be supported by 400 billion industrial sales? Anyway, in 20 13 years, Huawei's sales amounted to 239 billion, and its employees150,000 (the salary of Huawei employees is still very high). There are countless supporting enterprises that outsource or subcontract Huawei. 400 billion mechanical and electrical equipment procurement directly creates more than 400,000 jobs, which I think is conservative.

How big can the consumption of 400,000 high-income people stimulate the catering, entertainment, home appliances, automobiles and housing markets?

Therefore, the only way for the industry to achieve real prosperity is to establish a complete industrial system and realize the localization of key technologies and equipment. Otherwise, only a few people will get rich.

Tell a story about the localization of AFC. The protagonist is Hua Hong. The AFC of Shanghai Rail Transit 1 and Line 2 are all manufactured by American Cube Company, and the commissioning of Line 1 was completed in September, 1998. 1999 put into operation in March. However, the disadvantages of all imports are high cost, high operating cost, difficult system maintenance and upgrading due to the confidentiality of key technologies, insufficient spare parts, senior maintenance personnel flying from the United States, and working hours calculated from the United States. So when bidding for Line 3, the government asked foreign suppliers to provide localization measures, and the consortium formed by Shanghai Hua Hong and Spanish INDRA Company won the bid, and gradually realized the localization of application software and maintenance parts during the implementation process.

In fact, the level of Hua Hong in Shanghai is still limited at this time, but it can't stand the support of the government-the government thinks that Hua Hong in Shanghai has the ability to design and manufacture independently initially, so at the end of 200 1, Shanghai Hua Hong killed Cube Company at the price of 60 million yuan, and actually completed this work in 2004, training a group of people who are high-tech, modern and innovative.

The contract amount of one line is 1 100 million yuan, and 50 lines are newly divided by Shanghai Hua Teng, Shanghai Hua Hong, Nanjing Panda, Gaoxin Hyundai, Peking University Founder and Zhejiang University Network.

And this time, Hua Hong also talked with Fudan Microelectronics (you see, the first thing I said was Microelectronics! ) cooperation can systematically provide domestic products and promote the development of microelectronics industry.

The greatness of this story lies in that it took less than eight years from introducing technology to kicking foreigners away, and a large number of employees were trained.

3. Localization of equipment in petrochemical field

The first two examples are not large in scale, and the real big head is here!

Excuse me: What industries are needed for basic production in a region with a population of one million?

A: Small coal mines, small iron and steel plants, small machinery plants, small fertilizer plants, small cement plants, small power plants, small textile factories, small printing plants and small food factories.

In fact, it was put forward in 1970 when the state formulated the fourth five-year plan. The specific content is that the central government has allocated 8 billion yuan of special funds to support the development of five types of industrial projects in various provinces and regions, including small coal mines, small iron and steel plants, small fertilizer plants, small cement plants and small machinery plants.

At that time, the second large-scale introduction of complete sets of technical equipment was carried out, and 26 projects were actually signed, including Liaoyang Petrochemical Fiber General Factory (2.9 billion yuan), WISCO 1.7 rice mill (2.76 billion yuan), Daqing Fertilizer Plant (yen loan, exchange rate adjustment, investment increased to 2.67 billion yuan) and Shanghai Petrochemical General Factory (2.67 billion yuan).

Note that this is1116.5 billion in 1970. At that time, the official exchange rate was RMB to USD 2.46. 4.7 billion dollars! ! ! 1970 only spent $20 million on foreign exchange reserves, and 1975 only spent $500 million on foreign exchange reserves! ! ! In addition, from 65438 to 0979, China's money supply was 2.6 billion yuan, and its GDP was 27.2 billion US dollars (figures are all from the Internet, please give people with insight a face).

China's foreign exchange is not enough to introduce ethylene fertilizer plants. What TV set do you want to buy?

13 sets of large scale chemical fertilizer plant list introduced in 1970s;

1, Qilu Second Fertilizer Plant? 1974 started in April, and1976 was completed in July, with an investment of 263.03 million yuan;

2. Sichuan Chemical Plant? /kloc-started in may, 1974, and was completed in February, 1976 with an investment of160120,000 yuan;

3. Luzhou Natural Gas Chemical Plant? /kloc-0 started in April, 1974, and was completed in March, 1977 with an investment of 206.42 million yuan;

4. Daqing Chemical Fertilizer Plant? 1974 started in may, and1977 was completed in June, with an investment of 2,674.47 million yuan;

5. Cangzhou Chemical Fertilizer Plant? 1973 started in July and was completed in February with an investment of 243120,000 yuan;

6. Liaohe chemical fertilizer plant? Commencement in June 1974, completion in February 1977, with an investment of 343.42 million yuan;

7. Yunnan Natural Gas Chemical Plant? 1975,65438+10 month,1977,65438+2 month, investment 18759000 yuan.

8. Qixiashan Chemical Fertilizer Plant? Commencement in September 1974, completion in June 1978, with an investment of 32 1.28 million yuan;

9. Anqing Chemical Fertilizer Plant? Construction started on March 1974 and was completed on February 1978, with an investment of 405.26 million yuan;

10, Chishui River Natural Gas Fertilizer Plant? 1976 1 started construction, 1978 65438+2 was completed, and the investment was 17 1.85 million yuan;

1 1, Dongting Nitrogen Fertilizer Plant? /kloc-started in April, 1974, and was completed in July, 1979 with an investment of 31329,000 yuan;

Hubei chemical fertilizer plant? Construction started on June 1974 and was completed on August 1979, with an investment of 298.75 million yuan;

Guangzhou chemical fertilizer plant? /kloc-started in February, 1974, and completed in February, 1982/kloc-0, with an investment of 507.39 million yuan;

In the above 13 units, except Dongnan, Anqing and Zhijiang, naphtha is used as raw materials, and the others are all made of natural gas.

The main technical importers of the 10 plant with natural gas as raw material are the United States and the Netherlands. The ammonia plant adopts Kellogg production process in the United States, and the urea plant adopts carbon dioxide stripping process in Stamika, the Netherlands. Some enterprises have adopted the synthetic ammonia/urea process of Toyo Engineering Company of Japan.

One acre of land needs chemical fertilizer 10 kg a year, and 3.9 million tons of chemical fertilizer production equipment has been introduced, which can meet the chemical fertilizer demand of about 260 million people.

We rely on the equipment and technology introduced in that year to deploy manpower to tackle key problems, such as 1 10000 tons of ethylene plant, 300,000 tons of ethylene plant, large chemical fertilizer and so on. Thanks to the efforts of predecessors who were good at studying, studying and researching in those years, they chewed off the production line of petrochemical plants one by one, which directly or indirectly solved the problem of eating.

Don't take it seriously Without these basic industrial systems, a low-precision precision lathe will cost you 3 million yuan, and high-end ones will be banned, not to mention propellers, submarines and large planes. When you meet ordinary people, you can deal with green leather cars all your life.

First, the LCD panel industry.

In 2004, I worked as a product manager of 15 inch panel in a state-owned enterprise. I was a graduate student at that time and had just worked for less than two years. The whole team spent three months designing, one month preparing mask materials and two months auditioning. Before the formal production, our estimated cost is $220 per piece. At this time, the market price is $260. Six months later, we have about 25% share in the global market of 15 inch. At this time, the market price is terrible 160 USD, and our cost is 180 USD. Grandma who lost money doesn't know.

We can look at BOE's financial report, which basically makes a profit every three years. According to the market economy, such enterprises should close down? But if you calculate, the general relationship is that in 2005, for every loss 1 yuan in China panel industry, the cost of LCD TV enterprises in China will be reduced in 20 yuan. This is the power of localization.

Thanks to the efforts and efforts of BOE, Tianma, SVA and TCL over the years, there would be no success in the domestic TV industry without the huge investment of panel industry countries. The government of China invested about 654.38+00 billion in LCD panel industry, while the output of LCD TV in China in 2065.438+04 was 654.38+400 billion, and the TV industry earned it back in a few months.

The second example is new energy.

In 20 10, we talked with all international natural gas giants, including Linde, al and AP in the world's top 500 companies, about the supply of an alkane gas. Their quotation is very close, 45000kg, even though we know that the supplier cost behind them is below 25,000 kg. Then we worked hard to cultivate a domestic supplier in Fujian, with a higher cost of 28,000 yuan. We bought it at the price of 3 1 000. Then less than a year later, these top 500 companies came to us again and said they would sell it to you for 27 thousand. Then, according to some believers of free market economy, we should abandon domestic manufacturers and cooperate with foreign big enterprises? What a genius. We know very well that when the domestic family is ruined, these foreign predators will not hesitate to raise the price to more than 40 thousand. By the way, all the people who negotiated with us were comprador from China in China branch of these big international companies.

Let's give another example. In 20 13, we acquired an American company, which was heavily in debt. If the local tyrants in China don't make moves, they will definitely die. Even so, the acquisition was investigated by the American Imperial Council, and the acquisition was delayed for three months. In the so-called anti-monopoly, what US congressmen really care about is not monopoly, but the relationship between our enterprise and the China government, and the resulting technology and military applications.

The production technology of this company requires the use of 0.5 mm thick coil plate. When we wanted to produce in China after localization, American and Japanese suppliers said they could not export to China, because according to Batumi's regulations, it was an embargo on China's strategic materials. Half a year after we reached an agreement with Baosteel that Baosteel would start producing samples of this steel plate, the US imperialists decisively lifted the embargo on this steel plate in China.

So why industrialization and localization? Because this world has never been a free market economy, it is still a typical jungle law. At any time, only you can do it, others will talk to you about the free market. When you can't do it, you will either face high-priced dumping or a total embargo.

Of course, if our goal is not industrialization, but the development of service industry, and the goal is to export manpower and raw materials and dump high-end products, then there is really no need for localization or anything.

-Chapters IV and V are attached.