Did the developers leave Tianjin collectively?

Vanke, Ocean Shipping, Xuhui and Xincheng, real estate enterprises that achieved zero income in the first round of centralized land supply in Beijing, were all successfully accounted for in Tianjin.

As a result, some people laughed and said: brand developers collectively left Tianjin.

And what is the actual situation? Will the developer hold a heavy position in Tianjin next? Let's look for logic from this centralized land supply in Tianjin.

1

Tianjin plate is seriously divided.

Obviously, this land transfer in Tianjin is a world of ice and fire. Before the transfer began, 13 cases of remote land were withdrawn from the auction because no one cared. Another 16 cases of land were sold at the reserve price, and 29 cases entered the auction. Only a few hot plots such as Tiantuo Phase II and Cape Garden are fiercely competitive.

There are 20 real estate enterprises bidding in Haijiaoyuan plot; Tiantuo Phase II plot attracts 16 housing enterprises to win. In the end, the land premium rate exceeded 40%. Most of the other plots are dull.

This shows that smart developers did not repeat the mistakes of three years ago and did not get together to take land. Instead, I chose the plot to sell the house, and all the unpopular plots in the suburbs were not touched.

The market behavior of developers fully shows their caution about the Tianjin market. Because the mood is not high, there is no general idea of "starting collectively".

2

Tianjin has launched a large-scale land.

Tianjin's centralized land supply this time can harvest nearly 49.8 billion yuan of land transfer fees, which has a lot to do with the scale of land transfer.

Tianjin took out 58 plots of land at a time. In contrast, there are 30 cases in Beijing, 48 cases in Guangzhou, 57 cases in Hangzhou and 5/kloc-0 cases in Changchun, and the land reclamation scale in Tianjin is only lower than that in Chongqing.

But Chongqing's area is more than seven times that of Tianjin, and its population is more than twice that of Tianjin.

Except for a few hot plots with high premium, most plots in Tianjin are sold at low premium or reserve price. The developer saw the cost performance of the Tianjin plot and took the land.

This shows that the land supply is relatively large and the cost performance is relatively high, which is also the reason why Tianjin has achieved good results in this centralized land supply.

three

Few plots enter the self-sustaining stage.

Compared with Beijing developers, it has repeatedly broken through the price limit and the upper limit of construction area and entered high-standard competition; The premium rate of 80% plots in Hangzhou is capped and self-sustaining; Wuxi 16 plot hit the top, with two lottery tickets. The local auction in Tianjin is not hot enough.

Only two plots in Nankai District have entered the self-sustaining area competition, and the self-sustaining area is only 1 1,000 square meters and 3,000 square meters.

Competitive self-sustaining area is the key to test developers' confidence in this city. Most developers are not out of complete "love" and are unwilling to enter the self-sustaining link of fierce competition.

This time, Tianjin has sold so many plots, and few of them have entered the stage of self-sustaining competition, which also shows that the competition intensity of local auctions is not high.

four

Developers hold a conservative attitude towards Tianjin property market.

Many developers who participated in the Tianjin land auction did not think that the Tianjin property market would go up after this round of land auction, and thought that the Tianjin property market would remain stable at present.

In the document of the developer's land acquisition judgment, the macro situation of the city begins:

In 2020, the permanent population of Tianjin will decrease by about 6.5438+0.75 million, of which the working population aged 6.5438+0.5-59 will decrease by more than 2 million; The total GDP fell out of the top ten in the country; The cycle of commercial housing decontamination is more than 28 months.

In the past three years, many developers have been caught in the price war of Tianjin property market, and they have a deep understanding of this and are cautious about taking land in Tianjin.

Most of the developers who took the land this time were developers with good sales performance in Tianjin in the early stage, while Fujian real estate enterprises who took the land on a large scale in Tianjin in early 20 19 did not participate in this land acquisition.

five

There are no dark horses in local tyrants.

The entry of dark horse housing enterprises is often the performance of developers optimistic about a city. The participants in this Tianjin local auction are all familiar faces, and there is no dark horse like the Excellence in Beijing local auction. Developers familiar with the land situation in Tianjin, such as Sunac, have become the main land acquisition force.

Rongchuang is big and small, and the total amount of land acquisition * * exceeds 654.38+0 billion yuan; Greentown specially selected good land and won the Li Xinyu plot in southern Tianjin at a price of 35,857 yuan/square meter, setting a record for the highest floor price in Tianjin. At the same time, it also won many key plates such as Xiqing Temple and Zhannan. Xuhui won three plots of Cheng Lin Road in Dongli District at one time.

In contrast, Poly, Wanda, Vanke and China Shipping, which took more land in Tianjin last year, all performed relatively flatly.

Poly and Wanda didn't take the land directly, but Vanke and China Shipping only took a piece of land. Xincheng, Zhong Jun and Longhu took land in the suburbs of Beichen and Wuqing.

Seeing this, you will understand that developers have not lost their cool. For the Tianjin market, they still insist on taking land in the form of plate differentiation. Of course, they fight for popular plots, but they don't participate in remote plots that are difficult to melt.

It seems that under the new regulation of centralized land supply, in addition to the cold and hot differentiation in the city, there is also an obvious cold and hot differentiation in the city plate.

With the decline of urban energy level, developers are more cautious and calm in taking land, which actually reflects the likes and dislikes of the capital market: land in first-tier cities, banks let go of loans; In cities with depressed property market, banks are reluctant to lend.

After all, Tianjin is a municipality directly under the central government, with a population of more than10 million, and the local demand is also considerable. Therefore, developers aim at the local sectors such as Haijiaoyuan that just need to improve the demand for home ownership in Tianjin, and give up the suburban sectors preferred by foreign home buyers such as Jinghai and Binhai. This also means that the Tianjin property market has entered an era of local demand, and developers and property buyers have not lost their cool.