Analysis of macro-economic environment of Nanning real estate.

Investigation report on the trend of real estate price in Nanning in 2007

In 2007, around the goal of building "China Greentown" and a regional international city, Nanning followed the urban development direction of "taking Yongjiang as the axis, building in the west and expanding in the east, improving the north of the Yangtze River, upgrading the south of the Yangtze River and focusing on the south", and promoted the transformation of the old districts with the construction of new districts to accelerate the pace of urbanization. At the same time, the improvement of living environment and the improvement of citizens' living standards and quality of life have made the city's value and influence. On June+10, 5438, Nanning won the highest honor in the field of human settlements in the world-the 2007 UN Habitat Award, which fully affirmed the achievements made by Nanning in building a safe city and a harmonious society. Driven by many favorable factors, Nanning real estate market has developed rapidly and healthily. The sample survey shows that in 2007, the housing sales price index in Nanning showed a steady upward trend, the land transaction price rose sharply, the housing rental price dropped slightly, and the property management price was basically the same.

First, the main situation and characteristics

In 2007, under the guidance of national macro-control policies, Nanning real estate market made rational use of existing land resources, intensified the adjustment of investment structure in the real estate market, and the overall operation of the real estate market maintained a healthy development trend.

(1) The price of commercial housing has risen steadily.

With the success of the 4th China-ASEAN Expo, the development of Pan-Beibu Gulf is in full swing, and the "urban and rural cleaning project" has been carried out in depth, which has continuously improved the living environment and ecological environment in Nanning, promoted the prosperity of the real estate market, and the sales price of commercial housing has also increased day by day. According to statistics, in 2007, the price index of commercial housing in Nanning increased by 8.7% year-on-year, of which the price index of housing increased by 10.0% and the price index of non-housing increased by 6.2%. In terms of classification, the price index of affordable housing rose by 5.6% year-on-year, the price index of ordinary housing rose by 10. 1%, the price index of high-grade housing rose by1.5%, the price index of office buildings rose by 9.5%, the price index of commercial and entertainment houses rose by 6.9%, and the price index of second-hand high-rise housing rose. Judging from the price changes of commercial housing in the whole year, the price indexes of commercial housing in each month are 104.2, 104.3, 105.0, 105.4,/kloc respectively.

(2) The land transaction price rose sharply.

With the national macro-control policies and the implementation of the new land policy, as well as the frequent trade between China and ASEAN and the economic construction of Pan-Beibu Gulf, the land price in Nanning has soared, and the land transaction price index has increased by 2 1.5% year-on-year. Among them, the residential land price index rose by 25.3%, and the commercial, tourism and entertainment land price index rose by 14.7% year-on-year. Judging from the annual land transaction area, most of the land transactions in our city are concentrated in Fengling ASEAN international business plate and high-tech development zone plate. Judging from the transaction price, the transaction price of the land in ASEAN international business sector rose from 6.5438+0.8 million yuan/mu at the end of last year to the highest transaction price of 654.38+0.2/kloc-0.5 million yuan/mu at the end of 2007. At the same time, driven by the land price of ASEAN international business sector, the land price of high-tech sector approached the land price of ASEAN business sector in March with a transaction price of 4.3 million yuan/mu, creating high-tech. In September, the old city reconstruction project of characteristic commercial street of Zhongshan Road in Nanning reached a new high, with a transaction price of 7.73 million yuan/mu. 1February, the land transaction price of ASEAN international business sector exceeded RMB-0/0 million per mu, setting a new historical record again and becoming the symbol of "land king" in Nanning. According to experts' assessment, the rising land price of ASEAN international business sector drives the rising land price of Nanning.

(3) The low occupancy rate of office buildings leads to a decline in the rental price of houses.

The rental price of residential buildings in Nanning is contrary to the sales price, while the rental price of office buildings is relatively weak. According to the survey data, the average rental price of housing in Nanning in 2007 was 23.3 yuan/㎡, down 0.6% year-on-year. Among them, the residential rental price is 9. 1 yuan/m2, up 4.6% year-on-year; The rental price of office buildings is 20.7 yuan/m2, down 4.9% year-on-year; The rental price of commercial and entertainment rooms is 40.5 yuan/m 2, up 3.2% year-on-year. As the distribution of office buildings in Nanning is relatively concentrated, the housing supply is relatively surplus, and the rental price drops, which drives the annual rental price of housing to drop by 4.7 percentage points.

Second, the reason analysis

(A) the development of the city is gradually moving towards a metropolis, which has promoted the rapid rise of housing prices.

In recent years, with the success of four consecutive China-ASEAN Expositions and the acceleration of the construction of the Pan-Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, Greentown Nanning has been accelerating its steps towards becoming a regional international city, becoming increasingly international, improving its public facilities and infrastructure, and winning the United Nations Habitat Award, the world's highest habitat award, which has greatly improved its humanistic environment and urban value, brought sustained employment and entrepreneurial opportunities, and improved the education and health of the city. In addition, the improvement of the taste of Nanning, a green city, has also led to the possession of real estate projects, and the emergence of high-grade and high-grade houses, which has effectively promoted the rise of real estate prices.

(2) The rise in the consumer price index has led to an increase in house prices.

Since 2007, the macro economy has maintained a rapid development momentum. Affected by food, energy and other structural factors, the consumer price index has been rising, and inflationary pressure has been increasing. Within one year, the central bank 10 raised the deposit reserve ratio and raised interest rates for six times, with the purpose of controlling the currency in circulation, curbing the excessive price rise and reducing the overheating and inflation caused by the high investment ratio. Although it is not all aimed at the real estate market, it is still launched. From a macro point of view, raising interest rates will slow down the investment speed of the real estate market to a certain extent, and stabilize the real estate price by changing the relationship between market supply and demand, which is conducive to the long-term healthy development of the real estate market and the further convergence of the real estate market to macro-control objectives. From the micro level, for the market demand side, raising interest rates will increase the monthly mortgage repayment amount of buyers, and will also reduce the payment ability of those who hold money for purchase and increase their wait-and-see mentality. For investors and speculators, raising interest rates will increase financing costs and reduce their expected returns. However, it is not excluded that enterprises will transfer some financing costs to housing prices, which will lead to the continued rise of housing prices. In short, raising interest rates will further depress consumers' psychological expectations and reduce market demand. Under many macro-control policies issued by the government, whether it is to curb demand or increase supply, raising interest rates will alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand in the market to a certain extent, and have a certain regulatory effect on curbing inflation and excessive housing price rise. However, in the environment of strong demand, the final result of raising interest rates can only be to increase construction costs, and then push up housing prices.

(C) Greentown Nanning brand effect to enhance housing prices

In recent years, around the strategic goal of building China Greentown, Nanning strives for the UN Habitat Award, highlighting the green and ecological features. Under the high-starting point and high-quality urban layout planning, constantly improving urban functions and improving the living environment not only beautifies the urban environment, but also builds a modern and harmonious city with ecological livability, strong cohesion and sustainable development. Greentown Nanning won the UN Habitat Award. At the same time, the real estate market in Nanning closely revolves around the theme of "Greentown Nanning". High-grade buildings with different design styles pay more attention to the reasonable coordination of "spacious", "bright", "simple" and "outdoor landscape", emphasize green characteristics, start the characteristic brand effect and gain a foothold in the market. With the gradual sublimation of characteristic brand effect and the steady improvement of residents' income level, residents' affordability of housing prices has also been enhanced. Under the constant stimulation of demand, high-quality real estate with brand effect has raised house prices.

(D) The decrease of land resources, land prices continue to hit record highs, prompting housing prices to rise.

With the development of urban economy and the expansion of urban population, people's demand for housing is rising, but the scarce resource of land is decreasing day by day, and the auction price of land is constantly hitting new highs, which leads to the rising cost of land development. In addition, the rising prices of raw materials such as building materials and steel, the rising prices of construction costs and labor costs, and people's good expectations for the future development of Nanning are also the main reasons for the rapid rise in real estate prices.

Third, there are problems.

(1) Developers hoarded houses and land, and hired a few idlers to rob houses, resulting in a "shortage" of housing suppliers and pushing up housing prices.

(2) The housing structure is unreasonable, and the ratio of low-rent housing to affordable housing is low, which aggravates the contradiction between housing supply and demand.

(3) The house price is inflated, the pricing deviates from the market value, the selling price is lower than the asking price, and there are signs that there is a price but no market.

Four. Forecast of Nanning real estate market in 2008

In 2008, the real estate price in Nanning will remain at a high level. Due to the influence of housing structure, housing prices will face structural ups and downs. Small-area commercial housing below 90 square meters will be impacted by price-limited housing, affordable housing and low-rent housing, and the price of large-area commercial housing above 90 square meters will still rise. Therefore, the relevant departments should do the following work:

(1) Earnestly implement the national macro-control policies, and concretize and subdivide various control measures.

(two) the establishment of housing security system, accelerate the improvement of housing supply structure, to prevent the sale price of commercial housing from rising too fast. It is necessary to increase the supply of low-priced ordinary commodity housing and ensure the supply of affordable housing and low-rent housing.

(3) Standardize the order of the real estate market and vigorously develop the secondary market and rental market.

(4) Strengthen publicity, actively and reasonably guide housing consumption, and promote the healthy development of the real estate industry, so as to achieve the national macro-control objectives.

(5) Increase government intervention and severely crack down on illegal acts in the process of real estate sales.