Facing the real estate market in China, please state your views and opinions. What model essays are there?

20 16 is the first year of the 13th Five-Year Plan, but most economists believe that this year is the year when China's L-shaped economy continues to bottom out. According to my observation for many years, Tianya and Baidu have all kinds of arguments about China's economic collapse every year, saying how difficult the economy is this year, and most of them are alarmist. Consider it entertainment news. Let me give you an example. In fact, many years ago, some pessimistic friends worried about the economic collapse and insisted on changing their RMB into dollars and remitting them to foreign banks or simply changing them into dollars and storing them in the safe. Facts have proved that these people have missed the big bull market and can only watch other people's houses and the RMB appreciate sharply. Among them, RMB has experienced a bull market for nearly ten years since the exchange rate reform in 2005, and the effective exchange rate has increased by about 50%, while the national real estate price has increased by 10 times since 2003. Later, I asked these friends privately: You can be bearish on China's economy, but why do you want to remit foreign currency to foreign banks or convert it into cash? Their answer is actually worried about the compulsory settlement of foreign exchange by the state. I just want to say: don't give up treatment, the medicine can't stop. On the other hand, is the economy difficult this year? This year is very difficult, really difficult. You see, many urban real estate projects are idle, and developers dare not start, because starting is death, and staying still is waiting for death. What is the inventory of developed houses? The real economy is also full of sorrow, and many industrial park enterprises have closed down. Some first-tier rich families went to zero overnight. Even the fast-moving consumer markets such as barbershops and retail markets are much worse than in previous years.

In order to understand the whole picture of the economy, I want to start with the law. What is the law? Law is the inevitable connection of the inner essence in the movement of things. The economy itself has a cyclical law. I have a roommate who does nothing during graduate school. According to some game theory, he actually studied the theory of returning everything to the motherland. Just listening to this name, you can know that it is the result of reading novels too deeply. Too many digressions. Why do you talk about his Vientiane-oriented theory here? Literally, the development of everything is a cycle. So I want to talk about the starting point of this cycle of China economy, and where will the end of the cycle go?

Looking back on this round of housing bull market, it can be traced back to August 2003. The State Council clearly regards the real estate industry as the pillar industry of the national economy, and clearly proposes to maintain the sustained and healthy development of the real estate industry. In the following two years, the real estate price rose rapidly, so it began to be regulated in 2005, and the eighth article of the State Council and the eighth article of the New State Council were introduced one after another. Then, interest rates were raised and standards were raised n times, and the down payment ratio of loans was increased. Personal income tax was levied on the business tax of the sixth article of the State Council and second-hand houses, and the reserve was raised. Finally, the price control has achieved initial results. However, after the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, policy regulation came to an abrupt end. On September 15, 2008, the central bank announced a "double rate" decline. June 5438+1October 65438+February 2008, a series of new policies to support real estate were introduced, such as 30% discount on the interest rate of first-time home purchase and improved ordinary housing loans, and the minimum down payment was lowered to 20%. Real estate has ushered in another skyrocketing. The following years ushered in the strictest regulatory policy in history, and finally achieved results on 20 14. At present, the country has rescued the market again, but this is probably the last time. It can be said that the logic of making money in this decade is very simple, that is, buying a house-lending-appreciation of the house-revaluation and refinancing-continuing to buy a house. This leveraged buying strategy has made many people rich. Of course, there are also some experts who make profits by speculating on housing futures. For example, A signed a housing contract with the developer of 6,543,800 yuan, and paid the developer a deposit of 20,000 yuan. However, if A has a good relationship with the developer and the Housing Authority, it can postpone the down payment and apply for a mortgage. After a certain period of time, the house price rose to 6.5438+0.2 million yuan, and Party A decided to sell it to Party B, and asked the Development and Housing Authority to modify the contract for the record. Directly change the name of the buyer column to B, and B needs to pay 200,000 yuan to Party A and 980,000 yuan to the developer according to the contract (after deducting the 20,000 down payment paid by Party A). So A only spent 20,000 yuan and got 200,000 yuan.

The poor have always fantasized that government regulation will bring down house prices, but the more the government regulates, the higher the house prices will rise. If ordinary people believe in regulation, the result will be tragic, and the more they wait, the more they can't afford to buy a house. The original full amount may only be enough to pay a down payment. Finally, after years of baptism, no one believes that house prices will fall, and the ratio of rent to sale and the ratio of house prices to income are floating clouds. Everyone believes that if you buy, you will earn, and if you buy, you will appreciate! Even though a few people know that there is a bubble in real estate, they firmly believe that the bubble is made of iron. So getting married has become a very luxurious experience. A man must buy a house if he wants to get married. If he can't afford a house, the hardest thing to get rid of is his mother-in-law, and this is only the first level. Even if you get rid of his mother-in-law, there are still a lot of uncles and aunts telling you what to do. Getting married without buying a house is really considered hooliganism. You need to deal with too many people, not just your mother-in-law.

An economist said that a successful investor is very unsociable. When the music started, everyone got up and danced, but he hid in the corner and drank silently. As soon as the music stopped, everyone was fighting for chairs, but he was dancing. It is also said that the best profit period is when the bubble expands. I think it all makes sense. The key depends on how you grasp this degree and deal with this problem in compromise. Of course, you can hug the foam, but you must never lick the blood. Now it's 20 16, you've been hugging the foam for so many years, and now it's time to lick the blood. I must remind you that the music is coming to an end. Please arrange a happy edding calmly, keep your ticket, leave a home, tie up the core store, take your children, hold your wife tight, enjoy the fun of life and let others grab the last chestnut. Maybe there will be some profits from doing real estate in the future, maybe you may have some unfinished business, but it is better to earn this kind of money for others. Remember never to envy gamblers for winning money.

There are only three views on the logic of real estate rising in recent ten years, one is the theory of hot money driving, the other is the theory of land finance and the third is the theory of currency inflation.

At present, these three factors are basically closed. First, talk about the promotion of hot money. There is a famous saying on Wall Street that money never sleeps and capital is profit-seeking. With the continuous appreciation of RMB in previous years, China's assets have been continuously appreciated, and the blood-soaked international capital has continuously flowed into China, further pushing up domestic housing prices. There is a joke on the Internet that an American traveled to China and exchanged $200,000 for 6,543.8+0.34 million RMB, 6,543.8+0.00 million RMB for a single apartment and 340,000 RMB for eating, drinking and having fun for one year. When I came back the next year, the house went up and sold for 2 million yuan, and the RMB rose to1:6.22 million against the US dollar, for 320,000 dollars. Americans earned $654.38 +0.2 million after playing for a year, and they were very happy to go home. However, the 20 15 USD returned strongly, the RMB depreciated rapidly against the USD, and the capital fled at an accelerated pace. According to the website of the central bank, the foreign exchange reserves in 20 15 12 were $3,330.362 billion, down/kloc-0.00 billion from the previous month. Facts show that international capital is not as interested in investing in China as it used to be. Li Ka-shing sells commercial real estate intensively in China. Who else wants to be a receptionist?

Let's talk about land finance. It can be said that at present, local fiscal revenue mainly depends on land sales, but obviously they are a little impatient and there is a serious surplus of real estate. It is observed that managing real estate is not much better than raising pigs. Everyone should know that there is a pig cycle, and the cycle is generally: the price of pigs falls-the number of pig farmers decreases-the supply of pork decreases-the price of pork rises-the number of pig farmers increases-the supply of pork is excessive. If pork is replaced by a house and pig farmers are replaced by developers, the above cycle is also established. Now belongs to the real estate surplus stage, what will happen next, everyone should have an expectation and judgment. 20 15 the government emphasized in many meetings that destocking is the top priority of the real estate market. How many houses are there now? Take our city as an example. According to simple sampling statistics, every family in this city has about two sets of commercial housing, but only unsold houses in Xinjiang New District can make every family in the old city buy another set. Do you think there are many houses? Let's look at the national data again. If there are 654.38+04 billion square meters of approved and under construction, it will take ten years for the current inventory to digest the approved and under construction, even according to the best sales year of 2065.438+03. Now we see that some cities bombed some unfinished buildings, and many people began to scold their mothers. On the one hand, ordinary people can't afford to buy houses, on the other hand, it is a serious waste of resources. In this regard, I want to say: Do you still remember the story of pouring milk into the ditch in the middle school political textbook? This is called overproduction, and everyone should accept and get used to it. The government also suddenly realized that the number of houses owned by ordinary people is already very high, and it is unsustainable to rely solely on land sales. All things must come to an end, so we decided to introduce real estate registration and real estate tax. I don't have to sell land for a living anymore. The tax authorities shall calculate the existing housing area per capita. The bigger the area, the more taxes they pay, and the revenue can continue.

Finally, talk about currency inflation. Inflation is very serious, and China's currency is seriously overshot. If you trust the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics and put your money in the bank, you may be miserable. Every year, the official CPI figures are very low, and the highest year in the past decade is less than 4%. Generally speaking, less than 5% is not considered hyperinflation. But in fact, it is observed that the price in China doubles every five years! China has been operating in a negative interest rate environment for a long time. If you put money in the bank, wealth will not increase, but will shrink with the rise of prices. So there is a strange phenomenon in China:

The poor save money, and the more they save, the poorer they get; The rich borrow money, and the more they borrow, the richer they get. The debt ratio of the international rich is generally less than 20%, while the more in China, the better. Let's just say that this state is not normal now. In this context, more and more people invest their assets in real estate, which further pushes up housing prices. Today, the price index is meaningless. An old lady in Beijing may have tens of millions of assets with her shabby quadrangle. What does it mean to her if rice, pork and vegetables double? Under normal circumstances, people in first-tier cities are generally quite rich. If you sell your house, you can't spend it all by eating, but it's probably difficult to buy another house. For ordinary people, the monthly payment of the house is already the biggest consumption. As long as house prices do not rise, the cost of living will not rise. Shenma cpi price index is a cloud. If you continue to buy a house now, you may have to pay for it all your life. Selling the house will be easy all my life. Which one would you choose? Speaking of which, many people are going to curse. Aren't you a loser? Let me make an analogy. If you sell the company's shares at 6000, who dares to accuse you? Look at those major shareholders who are not reducing their holdings. Are they destroyed?

I want to make it clear here that the above suggestions are for people with multiple houses. All the rich people around me are throwing. Did you throw them away today? In addition, the above suggestions are also aimed at people in second-and third-tier cities and below. If your house is in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, if your house is in the core area of the second and third lines, it is still safe at present. No matter which city you are in, if you don't have a house, please feel free to buy one. After all, house prices have fallen a lot. In addition, many local governments also have supporting subsidy policies and settlement policies. You should make full use of provident fund loans, and the interest rate is very favorable. You can only use it twice in your life. You must cherish them and try to reduce the down payment ratio. In addition, you should make a good calculation to match the monthly payment with the provident fund payment. The current policy allows you to take out the provident fund to pay the monthly payment, so you don't need to spend extra money every month. First of all, I suggest that you buy a house that has been renovated, and the money equivalent to the renovation can also be lent out through the provident fund. You don't need to raise money for renovation in the next step. Try to choose popular, refreshing and practical ones, such as Vanke's house with decoration, which is of very good quality and suitable for first-time home purchase. Second, I suggest buying a house in a mature area, where life is convenient and the value is relatively increased. As a self-occupied house, it is not recommended in a new city. The house had better be closer to parents. Now that young people are busy with their careers, parents can help with their children. Third, it is recommended to buy a subway room in the school district, which is the icing on the cake. Forget it if you can't buy it. You don't have to pursue it. Equalization of educational resources should be the general trend in the future. Fourth, it is recommended to buy big brand properties. These properties are more expensive and the property fee is higher, but life is too easy. If you don't care about the property environment, you can ignore this article. Fifth, choose the right time to buy a house. If you buy a first-hand house, it is better to choose it in the off-season. For example, in the months after the New Year, although there are many promotional activities and marketing propaganda during the period like November, the price is not affordable. The way to sell things is to buy more people and the price will not fall, and the price will naturally be affordable if there is less passenger flow. If you buy a second-hand house, it is recommended to buy it before the Spring Festival. Many bosses have many houses, and they urgently need money to settle accounts or purchase goods before the year. Chances are that you will find an affordable house. In addition, paying more attention to some bank auction information may have unexpected gains. The sixth house is really not a thing, so I can't rest assured. You have to believe that there is nothing good about the house. It will never buy my sister's freedom.

Since it is not a good idea to put all your eggs in one basket to invest in real estate, how to manage money? Now many people think that there is a shortage of 20 16 asset allocation. Here I want to remind you of the concept of compound interest. A few years ago, many friends took out loans, so I was embarrassed to tell others that the interest was less than two points. If people still look for assets with this expectation, you are all wet. In fact, the interest return is already very high. Many people think that the premise of getting rich is a huge capital base and a high profit return, but this is not the case. Funny Einstein once said: "The greatest energy in the universe is compound interest, and the eighth wonder in the world is compound interest." Suppose you have 100000000 yuan now, and the compound interest will increase by 12% every year. 10 is 3 1 1000000 yuan, 9.65 million yuan after 20 years and 29.96 million yuan after 30 years. You can compare, what is your total wage income in the next 30 years? The purpose of this example is to tell you that you must lower your expectation of return on capital. The returns in previous years were short-lived and unsustainable. At present, the interest rate of bank loans and housing loans is around 5%, and now some financial products of small and medium-sized banks can reach this level. For example, the Pearl River series of Nanjing Bank has a revenue of about 5. 1%. In fact, the yield of about 5% at this time is also acceptable.

For the general working class, 20 16 is still based on the premise of stabilizing winter, and the main line is rest. I suggest you allocate your assets as follows, 40% of which are bank wealth management products. Remember to buy non-guaranteed products, and the income is about 5%. The risks of capital preservation and non-capital preservation are similar, but the banks operate in different ways. Buy 20% bond funds, remember to buy pure bond funds, and don't buy hybrid and convertible bonds. Many people saw the stock market crash in 20 15 and the fuse in 20 16, but few people noticed that the yield of many bond funds reached 15% in 20 15. Theoretically, bonds are negatively related to the stock market and interest rates, but at present, the stock market is not. 20% of the investment of p2p leading enterprises must be leading enterprises, such as lufax and Evergrande Financial Services, and the income is about 7%. In addition, about 10% will stay in Yu 'ebao, invest in the stock market or convert it into US dollars. In 2065,438+06, RMB depreciation is expected to be around 5%, China Merchants Bank's dollar wealth management income is around 2%, and the overall rate of return is around 8%. Finally, leave some money for bargain hunting. If you find shops and houses with good returns, you can start first, such as the Hangzhou Asian Games and the Riverside Plate under the G20 concept. In this way, the overall return on assets should be around 8%, far exceeding the inflation and house price increase in most cities. 20 16 there are many dramas in China's economy. What is the drama? We talked while watching.