On Thursday, the six major brokers were optimistic about the six major sectors.

Education industry: The Education and Training Supervision Department of the Ministry of Education established the Higher Education Group, and the number of students enrolled in the new school year continued to grow rapidly.

Category: Industry organization: Huaxi Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Tang Shuangshuang/He Fuli Date: 202 1-06-23

Summary of report:

This week's view

On June 15, the Ministry of Education held a kick-off meeting for the establishment of the off-campus education and training supervision department. The main responsibilities of the supervision department of off-campus education and training include drafting relevant standards and systems of off-campus education and training institutions and supervising their implementation, guiding and standardizing social competitions for primary and secondary school students. The meeting stressed that the work of "double reduction" should be promoted in the spirit of "nailing nails".

Recently, three main lines are recommended: (1) quality education and vocational education, which will recover after the epidemic and be less affected by policies; Recommend Zhonggong Education, Shengtong Shares and Oriental Fashion. mygym(2) benefits from promoting the law by the people, and the valuation has room for repair: recommend Zhongjiao Holdings, New Higher Education Group, Yuhua Education and Zhonghui Group; (3)Q2 is expected to usher in an inflection point: Jiafa Education.

Up to now, in 20265438, the number of places in some higher education groups was +0: (1) The number of students enrolled by China Education Holding reached 59,200, an increase of +58%, of which the endogenous growth contributed +27% and the acquired Seaview Garden contributed+31%; (2) The enrollment plan of Hope Education is 95,000, with an increase of 1 1%, of which the junior college increased by 2 1% and the undergraduate course decreased by 4% due to transfer. The total number of students is expected to increase by 6%. (3) Yuhua Education Group has 2,700 undergraduates (+290), 65,438 undergraduates (+0.600) and 6,000 majors. Hunan foreign-related schools have been upgraded to 2,400 undergraduate places, which are the same as junior colleges. (4) The total undergraduate enrollment index of Guangdong Institute of Technology under Zhongke Peixia is 1060 1, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and the junior college enrollment index is 3912; The undergraduate enrollment indicators of Harbin schools totaled 2,790, a year-on-year increase of 7%; After this year's transfer, the enrollment index of the first undergraduate course in Huaibei School totaled 2,600, a year-on-year increase of100%; It is estimated that the total number of undergraduates in the Group will increase by about 18%. (5) The undergraduate enrollment index of Huali College of Huali University Group totaled 4,562, an increase of 5%.

Market review: underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.73%

This week, CITIC Education Index fell by 6.5%, Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.8%, underperforming the market by 4.73pct and 202 1 for the whole year, CITIC Education Index fell by 18.68%, and Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.50%, underperforming the market by 20./.

Industry news:

Recently, off-campus training institutions in Wuhan, Changsha, Zhengzhou and other places have successively issued "A Letter to Parents". Many off-campus training institutions, including Learning and Thinking, Dashan Education and Jaguar Education (formerly Wuhan Giant School), have mentioned that under the background of strengthening the "five management" of homework, sleep, mobile phone, reading and health of primary and secondary school students, each campus will standardize after-school homework and teaching time. Its contents mainly include: no more assignments and distribution; Ensure students' recess time; Students are forbidden to bring their mobile phones into the classroom; The face-to-face course will end before 20:30, and the online course will end before 2 1:00; The course content does not exceed the corresponding national discipline curriculum standards, and it does not arbitrarily improve the teaching difficulty and speed up the teaching progress.

At the same time, according to 20 15-2020 customer service data of studying abroad in Kai Tak, the proportion of undergraduate business applications for studying abroad has always ranked first, and has been stable at more than 20%, followed by science and engineering and social sciences.

Risk warning

The uncertainty of the epidemic situation, the risk of policy changes in the education industry, and the risk that the number of students enrolled is not up to expectations.

Textile and garment industry: "6 18" ended wonderfully, and the growth of local sports brands was particularly eye-catching.

Category: Industry organization: Guo Xin Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Ding Shijie Date: 202 1-06-23.

Matters:

Guo Xin's point of view: 1)6 18 whole network battle report: the sales of the whole network continued to grow at a high speed, and the clothing, shoes and bags industry performed well; 2) Tmall flagship store 6 18, the key brand of textile and clothing: local sports companies have grown brilliantly, and international brands have not fully recovered from the impact of Xinjiang cotton; 3) Tmall 6 18 textile and garment industry sales list: key brands are in the top ten in their respective categories; 4) Risk warning: industry inventory destocking is slower than expected, and brand competition is vicious; Market systemic risk. 6) Investment suggestion: 6 18, a key company, has outstanding performance, and is optimistic about the peak consumption season and the domestic product boom to boost performance growth. Most key companies showed obvious competitive advantages in the peak consumption season of 6 18, especially the growth of local head sports brands under the upsurge of domestic products. In the short term, we are optimistic about the bright mid-term results brought by brands with accelerated growth in fundamentals, and continue to be optimistic about high-quality enterprises with leading brand strength, leading product strength, leading operating efficiency and leading health for a long time. In terms of brands, Anta Sports, Li Ning, Xtep International, Bosideng, Mason Clothing and Steady Medical Care are mainly recommended. In terms of upstream and downstream, we are optimistic about Shenzhou International and Tao Bo, the leaders of high-quality sports tracks.

Investment suggestion: The key company 6 18 has brilliant performance, and it is optimistic about the peak consumption season and the domestic product boom to boost performance growth. Most key companies showed obvious competitive advantages in the peak consumption season of 6 18, especially the growth of local head sports brands under the upsurge of domestic products. In the short term, we are optimistic about the bright interim results brought by the brand with accelerated growth in fundamentals, and continue to be optimistic about the high-quality enterprises with leading brand strength, leading product strength, leading operating efficiency and leading health for a long time. In terms of brands, Anta Sports, Li Ning, Xtep International, Bosideng, Mason Clothing and Steady Medical Care are mainly recommended. In terms of upstream and downstream, we are optimistic about Shenzhou International and Tao Bo, the leaders of high-quality sports tracks.

1, industry inventory destocking was slower than expected; 2. Vicious brand competition; 3. Market systemic risk.

New Chemical Materials Industry: The silicone market is still at a high level due to the shutdown and overhaul of Shihezi plant in Hesheng Silicon Industry.

Category: Industry organization: Debon Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Chi Lee Date: 202 1-06-23.

Last week's market review Last week, the Wind New Materials Index closed at 40 18.05, up 1.5 1% year-on-year. Among them, the top five companies are Dongyue Silicon Materials (+17.37%), Jianlong Micro Nano (+16.36%), Walter Gas (+15.70%) and Anji Technology (+15.52%). The top five companies are Aoke (-8.02%), Sincerity (-6.94%), Qian Bo New Materials (-6.23%), National Porcelain Materials (-5.86%) and Wan Wei Gaoxin (-5.78%). Among the six sub-industries, the semiconductor material index of Shenwan's third-level industry closed at 76 10.42, up 9.21%year-on-year; Shenwan's third-class industry display device index closed at 1493.20, up 3.12% year-on-year; The silicone index of CITIC's tertiary industry closed at 7725.99 points, up 5.54% year-on-year; The carbon fiber index of CITIC's tertiary industry closed at 38 18.99 points, up 7.60% year-on-year; The lithium battery index of CITIC's tertiary industry closed at 4,265.49 points, up 0.94% year-on-year; Wind concept degradable plastics index closed at 203 1.35, down 0.92% year-on-year.

Risk warning: the downstream demand is less than expected, the risk of product price fluctuation, and the release of new capacity is less than expected.

Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery Industry: The data of domestic head pet food brand 6 18 is bright.

Category: Industry Organization: Open Source Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Chen Xueli Date: 202 1-06-23.

6 18 ignited the pet food market, and the data of domestic brands in the head were bright.

2021"618 shopping festival" ended, and various e-commerce companies upgraded their gameplay one after another, and the turnover reached a new high. Focusing on the pet food track, the sales data are also bright, showing three characteristics: (1) the concentration of the pet food track industry has increased; (2) The sales scale of staple food and snacks of cats has greatly increased; (3) The head brand price is relatively stable, and the advantages of domestic head brands are enlarged. According to the market intelligence statistics of Magic Mirror, in 20021year, the sales of the top 50 brands of Tmall platform was 294 million yuan, up by 0.1%year-on-year; The sales of staple food for cats was 457 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.8%; The sales of cat snacks was 65.438+0.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.6%; The sales of dog snacks and cat and dog health care products were 58 million yuan and 95 million yuan respectively, both lower than that in 2020, with a decrease of 10.2% and 8.9% respectively.

The concentration of pet food industry has increased, and the recognition of domestic brands has increased.

In terms of breakdown, among the brands with sales volume ranking 15, domestic brand dog staple food accounts for 10, cat staple food accounts for 8 seats, dog snack accounts for 1 1 0, cat snack accounts for 10, and cat and dog health care products account for1kl. The recognition of domestic brands is constantly improving. From the perspective of sales increment, although emerging brands are constantly emerging in various sub-tracks, the sales increment of various brands is even greater, and the market concentration of pet food and health care industry in China is on the rise.

The cute cat is in power, and the brand advantages of all categories appear.

McFoday's sales scale continues to lead. The total sales revenue of staple food and snacks for cats and dogs was 96.503 million yuan, up 65.438+09.5% year-on-year, surpassing the royal family by 64.267 million yuan. All brands of Zhongchong Co., Ltd. realized a total sales income of 365,438+0,665,438+0.8 million yuan, up by 65,438+0.9.1%year-on-year. In terms of categories, the staple food of middle pet cats and dogs increased by 288.8% and 100.6% respectively. The sales revenue of dog snacks decreased slightly by12.0%; The advantage of pet cat snacks in China is still obvious, with a year-on-year increase of 12.4%.

The brand price of pet food was stable, and the average selling price increased year-on-year.

From the price point of view, the average selling price of head brands of pet food and health care products in 2021"618 Shopping Festival" increased year-on-year, among which the average selling price of cat and dog snacks increased most obviously, and the average selling price of head brands of staple food, health care products and dog snacks also increased greatly, with the range of about 10%. Judging from the average selling price, there are obvious price differences between domestic brands and imported brands, and domestic brand products are still more concentrated in low-end products. Zhongchong realizes differentiated product pricing with the help of sub-brands. Comparatively speaking, product strategy has certain advantages.

Risk warning: Data samples are only taken from Tmall platform, and the sample space and time are limited.

Environmental protection industry: three trading methods coexist in the release of carbon emission trading matters.

Category: Industry organization: Guo Jin Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Niu Bo Date: 202 1-06-23.

event

On June 22nd, Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange issued the Announcement on Matters Related to National Carbon Emission Trading, aiming at standardizing the national carbon emission trading and related activities, protecting the legitimate rights and interests of all parties involved in the trading and maintaining the order of the trading market.

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Division of responsibilities: According to the announcement, the national carbon emission trading institution is responsible for organizing the centralized and unified trading of carbon emission rights nationwide. According to the relevant regulations of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, before the establishment of the national carbon emissions trading institution, Shanghai Environmental Energy Exchange Co., Ltd. will undertake the specific work of opening, operating and maintaining the accounts of the national carbon emissions trading system.

Main contents: We refined the contents in the announcement, mainly including: 1) trading mode. Through the trading system, agreement transfer, one-way bidding or other ways that meet the requirements can be adopted. Agreement transfer includes listing agreement transaction and batch agreement transaction; 2) Listing agreement transactions. The maximum declared quantity should be less than 654.38+ million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. Based on the principle of price priority, the counterparty's price is selected in turn among the five real-time optimal prices of the counterparty, and the transaction is completed by submitting a declaration. The transaction price of the listed agreement transaction is determined between 10% of the closing price of the previous trading day; 3) Block agreement transactions. The minimum declared quantity of a single transaction in a block agreement transaction shall not be less than 654.38+ million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, and the transaction shall be confirmed after both parties reach an agreement on the transaction price and transaction quantity, and the price shall be determined between 30% of the closing price of the previous trading day; 4) One-way bidding. According to the market development, the trading system currently provides one-way bidding function. The trading entity applies to the trading institution for selling, and the trading institution issues a bidding announcement, and the qualified intended transferee makes an offer in accordance with the regulations, and makes a transaction through the trading system within the agreed time. Trading institutions shall organize the paid allocation of quotas according to the requirements of the competent authorities, and the relevant business provisions of one-way bidding shall apply; 5) trading time. Except for legal holidays and closed days announced by trading institutions, the trading hours of listing agreements are from 9: 30 am to 1 1: 30 pm, 13:00 pm to 15:00 pm, and the trading hours of bulk agreements are from Monday to Friday afternoon13. The trading time of one-way bidding shall be announced separately by the trading institution; 6) Other matters. National carbon emission trading information is released and supervised by trading institutions. A trading institution shall withdraw the risk reserve in accordance with the provisions, and may not withdraw the risk reserve when the balance reaches the registered capital of the trading institution. According to the relevant regulations of the national carbon emission rights registration authority, the trading subject can query the relevant transaction records through the trading system and timely query the settlement results.

Subsequent progress and significance. At present, the national carbon market covers eight industries with high energy consumption, such as petrochemical industry, chemical industry, building materials, steel, nonferrous metals, paper making, electric power and civil aviation. At the initial stage, 2,200 enterprises in the power industry (pure power generation and cogeneration, gas generator set) were included as the first transaction subject, and later they were included in other industries according to the principle of "one mature, one integrated". The power generation industry covers nearly 4 billion tons of carbon emissions and is expected to become the largest carbon emissions trading market in the world. From the official start of carbon trading to the end of this year, more than 2,200 power companies have to complete the whole process of carbon coordination such as distribution, trading and performance payment. We believe that the establishment of a national carbon emissions trading market is an important institutional innovation that uses market mechanisms to control and reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote green and low-carbon development. It is not only a deep-seated supply-side reform that gradually affects the energy investment and production decisions of society, industry and enterprises through carbon pricing under the carbon market mechanism, but also an important starting point for implementing the national "two carbons" goal.

Capital proposal

The promotion of carbon neutrality policy is less than expected; Market competition has intensified; Reversible risk of forestry carbon sink, etc.

Real estate industry: New house transactions in key cities weakened.

Category: Industry organization: Great Wall Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Chen Date: 202 1-06-23

The real estate sector fell by 2.04%. A few weeks later, its performance improved slightly this week: the market continued to fall by 2.34% this week, with electronics, military industry, communications and other sectors leading the gains, while the real estate sector fell by 2.04%. A few weeks later, its performance improved slightly this week, ranking 15 among 28 industries. In terms of sector valuation, this week, the PE valuation of the sector continued to fall back to 9.7 1X, and the PB valuation fell back to 1.02X, a record low. Compared with all A-shares, PE and PB valuations are discounted by 52% and 46% respectively. If the bank shares are discounted by 67% and 60% respectively, the discount rate has expanded recently. In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers in this week's plate are Ye Wan Enterprise, Changjing Development and Wolong Real Estate. Ye Wan enterprises benefit from the concept of integrated circuits, and Shunfa Hengye plans to acquire a number of wind power assets. The top five declines were China Sports Industry, Rheinland Sports, Yue Hongyuan A and so on. Last week, the Chinese sports industry benefited from the concept of horse racing, and Rheinland Sports suspended its acquisition of Greater Lv Wen. Among the major companies this week, only World Bank rose by 5. 1 1%, while Evergrande, Taihe and Shimao were among the top losers, falling by 10.2%, 9.8% and 7.9% respectively.

The Bureau of Statistics released the industry data in May, Shanghai completed the first round of centralized soil auction, and Hubei settled down and released it again;

1) The Bureau of Statistics released the national real estate development investment and sales from June to May. From June to May, the national investment in real estate development was 5431800 million yuan, an increase of 18.3%, and the sales area of commercial housing was 663.83 million square meters, an increase of 36.3%. (For details, please refer to the overseas report "Keeping Sales Bright after Completion _ Comments on Real Estate Industry Data of the National Bureau of Statistics in the First Five Months") 2) On June 18, a total of 38 plots were sold on the first day of centralized land transfer in Shanghai, with a total transaction price of 48.27 billion yuan. Among them, the residential land 13 plot has a total transfer area of about 9 10000, and the total transaction price is nearly 40 billion yuan. Only three plots were sold at a premium, and the rest 10 plots were won at the reserve price. The remaining 25 plots of land are for resettlement houses or rental houses. Judging from the amount of land acquired by real estate enterprises today, Poly has no suspense to stand at the top of the list, and the total land price of Daning has exceeded 10 billion; Secondly, the excellent JD.COM consortium won the commercial and residential land of Shanghai West Railway Station with a total price of 99. 1 100 million yuan; The third place is the complex real estate development under Yuyuan Co., Ltd., which won the commercial and residential office plot of Xuhui Riverside with a total price of 510.70 billion yuan. These three plots are precisely the plots with premium today.

3) The website of Hubei Provincial Development and Reform Commission published the Key Points of New Urbanization and Urban-Rural Integration Development in Hubei Province in 20021year, pointing out that the restrictions on urban settlement should be relaxed by deepening liberalization. Cancel the restrictions on settlement in other areas of the province except Wuhan, further lower the threshold for settlement in Wuhan, and implement the household registration transfer mechanism in the province.

New house transactions in key cities turned negative for the first time year-on-year: in terms of transactions, the new house transactions in 27 key cities this week were lower than the weekly average again after five weeks, and turned negative for the first time year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 58. 1% year-to-date, and the growth rate dropped rapidly. This week, only the first, second, third and second line transactions increased year-on-year, and the first and third line transactions were lower than the weekly average, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 79.7%/65.4%/44.5% respectively, and the cumulative increase continued to fall. On the supply side, the new supply of 10 key cities this week has been negative for two consecutive weeks, and then turned positive, with a cumulative increase of 24.2% year-to-date, and the growth rate continues to narrow. By the end of this week, the narrow chemical cycle was 9.35 months, and the chemical cycle picked up. This week, the new supply of key third-line products continued to decline year-on-year, while that of second-line products increased, with cumulative year-on-year amounts of 34.1%14.2%/27.0% respectively, and the increase of second-line products increased. By the end of this week, the first, second, third and third chemical cycles were 6.47/6.00/ 13.57 months respectively, and the chemical cycles all picked up, with the focus on the first, second and third lines rising for two weeks in a row.

Maintain the rating of "stronger than the market": Fundamentally, the Bureau of Statistics released the industry data in May, and the sales in May remained strong, which was the best level in the same period of this year. Developers have sufficient motivation to speed up the payment, and the funds still maintain a high growth rate driven by sales. In terms of construction and completion, the completion in May turned from negative to positive. On the whole, driven by the unit price of construction and investment, the growth rate of real estate investment is still strong. Judging from the high-frequency data we tracked, this week's new house transactions in key cities turned negative for the first time in the year, and sales showed signs of weakening. The policy continues to tighten real estate control in many places, emphasizing "no housing speculation" and "three stabilities". On the other hand, Hubei once again relaxed its settlement conditions, and the development of the metropolitan area continued to advance. On the whole, considering that the valuation of 1) real estate sector is at the bottom of history, and the fundamentals have shown strong resilience after the epidemic, it has exceeded expectations for many times. 2) In the medium and long term, no speculation in houses and three red lines are conducive to the stable development of the industry, and the advantages of leading companies are more obvious. We maintain the judgment that we can actively allocate the valuation of the plate at the current time, and the repair opportunity can be expected. Individual stocks recommend three main lines: 1) Vanke and Poly, high-quality housing enterprises with relatively stable finances and leading operational capabilities; 2) Shimao Group, the second-line high-quality standard (some companies cannot cover it according to compliance requirements); 3) Yongsheng Life Service, a rapidly developing property-related company; And China merchants scraped it up (this is not covered).

Risk warning: the epidemic situation has developed beyond expectations, the credit control policy has exceeded expectations, the property tax has been introduced beyond expectations, and the sales recovery is less than expected.