What are the contents of the economic policies promulgated by the state in 2006?

The housing problem is a big issue related to people's livelihood. Soaring housing prices have been widely criticized as beyond the affordability of the people. The central government has introduced a series of control measures year after year, but the effect is not obvious. What's the problem? What will be the next step? To this end, we selected relevant research reports for evaluation, invited relevant experts to analyze from their own perspective, and inspected the practices of neighboring South Korea and Japan for reference.

Since 2006, the central government has comprehensively applied economic, legal and necessary administrative means to introduce a series of macro-control policies for real estate in a differentiated and step-by-step manner. Overall, the regulation has achieved initial results. However, there are still some problems in the real estate market, such as the unreasonable housing supply structure, the rapid rise of housing prices in some cities, and the difficulty in meeting the housing needs of low-and middle-income residents. It is urgent to continue to strengthen and improve the macro-control policy of housing on the basis of summing up experience.

The background of macro-control of real estate industry

Since 2006, with the rapid growth of the real estate industry, there have also been problems such as the rapid growth of real estate investment and the rapid rise of house prices in some areas, and the real estate industry has become one of the key industries for macro-control.

(A) the macroeconomic environment for the development of the real estate industry

Since 2006, with the improvement of residents' living standards, the upgrading of residents' consumption structure has promoted the upgrading of industrial structure, the acceleration of industrialization and the rapid increase of urbanization rate, which has enabled China's economy to enter a new round of growth cycle, with the rapid development of industries such as housing, automobiles, electronic communications, energy and basic raw materials. Among them, the rapid growth of investment in real estate, steel, cement and other industries has driven the overall rapid growth of fixed assets investment. From June to February, 2004, the investment in fixed assets increased by 53%, and there was a new imbalance in economic operation. The supply of energy and transportation is tight, the consumer price index (CPI) starts to rise (up 5% in June), and the economic operation of China shows signs of overheating.

(B) real estate system reform and policy adjustment

First, from 65438 to 0998, the reform of the housing system for urban residents was comprehensively promoted, and seven systems of housing distribution, supply, market, finance, property management, intermediary, administrative management and regulation were comprehensively launched, and the housing welfare distribution system that had been implemented for more than 40 years was abolished and replaced by monetary distribution; The privatization of residents' housing property rights and the marketization of housing purchase channels have been clarified, which has mobilized residents' enthusiasm for buying houses and concentrated the release of residents' housing demand.

Second, a better economic environment has created more housing demand. First, a new generation of urban families and new urbanized immigrants need housing. Second, the living standards of urban residents have improved and there is a higher demand for housing. Some residents who have obtained the property right of housing reform have produced the housing demand of replacing the old with the new and replacing the large with the small. Third, a large number of urban demolition and transformation have increased the housing demand of residents. The fourth is the demand for a large number of social funds to use real estate as an investment product.

Third, the state's policy support for the development of the real estate industry has promoted the rapid development of the real estate industry from both supply and demand. Since the Ninth Five-Year Plan, in order to expand domestic demand, China municipal government has taken housing as a new consumption hotspot for residents, given preferential mortgage, tax relief and other policy support, encouraged the purchase of houses, and stimulated housing consumption. At the same time, as a pillar industry of economic growth, the state has given policy support to the sustainable development of the real estate industry, including relaxing the credit scale control of commercial housing, implementing the house pre-sale system, rectifying and canceling some administrative fees, and promoting the rapid growth of the real estate industry. Compared with 1999 in 2003, the completion of real estate investment increased by 24.5% annually, which was 7.3 percentage points higher than the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the same period.

(C) System defects and macro-control of the real estate market

Since the second half of 2005, real estate investment in some areas has been overheated, and house prices have risen too high, especially in the Yangtze River Delta areas such as Shanghai and Hangzhou, where house prices have risen by more than 10%, which has become a sign of this round of macroeconomic overheating. Its root lies in the lack of system and mechanism. First, the real estate market has been liberalized, but the corresponding system has not been established and improved, and the market mechanism cannot effectively play its role. Second, most of the land is sold by agreement, which can't reflect the real land price and the land resources can't be used reasonably. Third, the cost of using funds is low. These factors lead to strong demand and investment power, and it is difficult for the market to adjust effectively. In April 2004, in order to curb the excessive growth of real estate investment, the State Council successively issued a series of macro-control policies for real estate.

Characteristics and effects of macro-control policies of real estate since 2006

(A) 2006 real estate macro-control policy focus and effectiveness

Target and focus of regulation and control: In early 2006, in order to curb the excessive growth of real estate investment, the central government adopted a macro-control policy of "strictly controlling land and keeping an eye on credit". On the one hand, we will intensify the rectification of real estate land, clean up and rectify construction land, strictly examine and approve management, tighten land supply, and gradually implement the "bidding, auction and hanging" of business land to control land supply from the source. On the other hand, the People's Bank of China raised the deposit reserve ratio twice, raised the capital ratio of real estate development projects (excluding affordable housing projects) to 35% and above, raised the benchmark interest rate of deposits and loans of financial institutions, prohibited real estate liquidity loans, tightened monetary policy and reduced financial support for real estate development.

Achievements and problems: In 2006, administrative means were the main means of regulation and control, and the intensity was relatively large. By controlling the supply of land and funds and the supply of real estate, the growth rate of real estate investment decreased from 50.2% at the beginning of the year to 28. 1% at the end of the year, a decrease of 22. 1 percentage point.

However, this regulation mainly suppresses supply, but lacks effective control over demand, especially irrational demand. A few years ago, some policies to expand domestic demand and stimulate housing consumption were still playing a role, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand. Unreasonable demand such as speculation and passive demand has increased rapidly; Due to the decline in the proportion of middle and low-grade housing supply and the unreasonable structure of real estate supply, the price of commercial housing has risen sharply. The national average sales price increased by 14.4% year-on-year. Especially in the southeast coastal cities such as Shanghai and Hangzhou, house prices have increased even more, which has aroused the concern of all sectors of society about whether there will be a "real estate bubble".

(B) the characteristics and effects of macro-control policies for real estate in 2007

At the beginning of 2007, according to the new situation and new problems in the real estate market, the central government continued to introduce a series of regulatory policies within three months.

Control objectives and key points: The control objectives have changed from a single goal of controlling the excessive scale of real estate investment to a dual goal of controlling the investment speed and restraining the excessive rise of commodity housing prices. The key points of regulation should be adjusted accordingly: First, the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market should be effectively adjusted. Adjust the real estate market from two aspects: increasing supply and reducing demand, so as to achieve the goal of stabilizing housing prices. On the one hand, using economic means such as credit and tax to increase the cost of real estate speculation and curb the demand for real estate speculation; Strictly control the scale of urban demolition and transformation, and curb the demand for passive housing. At the same time, increase the intensity of clearing idle land, thereby increasing land supply. Second, in planning approval, land supply, credit, taxation and other aspects. Give preferential policy support to small and medium-sized Taoxing Xing Tao and low-priced ordinary housing, and improve the housing supply structure. The third is to rectify the order of the real estate market. Measures such as forbidding the re-transfer of pre-sale houses, implementing real-name registration system registration of house purchases and online transactions were introduced, and illegal sales were severely punished according to law. Accelerate the establishment and improvement of the real estate market information system, strengthen the dynamic monitoring of the real estate market operation, and create a good market environment.

Effects and problems of regulation: at the end of 2007, real estate investment increased by 19.8%, with the growth rate dropping by 8.2 percentage points compared with the same period of last year; The sales price of commercial housing rose by 7.5%, down 3.6 percentage points from the same period last year; The sharp rise in housing prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou and other cities has been effectively curbed, indicating that macro-control has achieved initial results.

But at the beginning of 2008, some problems appeared. First, the growth rate of real estate investment rebounded. The growth rate in1-June was 4.4 percentage points higher than that at the end of last year. Second, the unreasonable supply structure still exists, and the proportion of low-and middle-priced housing and affordable housing urgently needed by low-and middle-income families in some big cities is low and the supply is insufficient. Third, housing prices in Shenzhen, Beijing, Guangzhou, Dalian and other cities have risen sharply, which is unbearable for low-and middle-income people and increases social unrest.

(C) 2007 real estate macro-control policy characteristics

At the end of May 2007, the Ministry of Construction, the National Development and Reform Commission and other nine ministries and commissions jointly issued the Opinions on Adjusting the Housing Supply Structure and Stabilizing Housing Prices, and various ministries and local governments successively issued relevant supporting measures.

Control goal: develop low-priced ordinary commodity housing that meets the self-occupation needs of local residents, and gradually solve the housing difficulties of low-income families.

Key points: First, local governments are required to use low-rent housing and affordable housing to truly solve the housing problem of low-income people. Two, since June 2006 1 day, the land supply area and development area of ordinary housing below 90 square meters shall not be less than 70% of the planned area of the year. Guarantee the supply of low-and medium-priced ordinary housing by means of limited apartment type, price limit, competitive land price and competitive house price. The third is to use economic means. Strengthen the tax management of residential transfer and the management of foreign-funded house purchase, and curb speculation; Raise the interest rate of bank deposits and loans, adjust the down payment ratio of housing consumption credit differently, and guide reasonable consumption; Standardize the order of the real estate market, enhance the transparency of market information, strengthen the guidance of public opinion, and promote the orderly operation and healthy development of the real estate market. The fourth is to incorporate the implementation of real estate control policies into the target responsibility assessment system of local governments to ensure the effective implementation of control measures.

Overall evaluation of macro-control policy system of housing industry

(A) the characteristics of this round of macro-control policies

First, macro-control is phased and gradual. Emphasis should be placed on solving the outstanding contradictions at all stages, gradually deepening regulation, maintaining the continuity and stability of economic policies, and reducing shocks and shocks.

Second, the regulatory policy is comprehensive and systematic. According to different control objects, corresponding control measures have been taken to form a policy system that comprehensively uses administrative means, legal means and economic means, and good results have been achieved.

Third, the regulatory policy pays attention to differential treatment and classified guidance. Mainly reflected in the need to control the speed of real estate investment, curb investment demand, but also protect the enthusiasm of ordinary residents to buy houses. In the "double tight" situation, land supply, project approval, credit support and other policies are inclined to affordable housing and middle and low-grade housing. While curbing unreasonable demand, it has given preferential treatment to the self-occupation demand of ordinary residents in terms of mortgage and tax.

(B) the effectiveness of macro-control policies

First, it has controlled the excessive growth of real estate investment and maintained the steady development of the real estate industry. Money is tight and government supervision is strengthened, which makes real estate investment develop in a standardized way; The investment, speculative demand and passive demand caused by early demolition have been restrained to some extent, and the real estate market has turned to self-occupation demand; Local governments have been given greater responsibility in regulating housing security policies. The excessive growth of real estate investment has been effectively controlled, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of investment has dropped from 50.2% at the beginning of 2006 to 19.8% at the end of 2005 and 24% in June 2007. In 2006, the average selling price of commercial housing rose by 14.4%, and gradually declined. In June 2007 165438+ 10, the price rose by 5.8%, and the house price rose moderately.

The second is to promote the deepening reform of the land system. The regulation and control adopted policies and measures combined with reform, established the system of bidding, auction, listing and transfer of operating land use rights, strengthened the supervision and management of land transactions, plugged loopholes, and promoted the marketization and standardization of land transactions.

Third, the housing market system has been formed. A housing market system consisting of new housing market, second-hand housing transfer market and housing rental market has basically taken shape. And gradually establish and improve the pre-sale of commercial housing, standardize the order of real estate transactions, online declaration of housing transactions and other rules and regulations, and gradually improve the order of the real estate market.

(3) Existing problems and their causes

There are still some outstanding problems in the development of the real estate market. First, the structural contradiction of housing supply is still very prominent. From June to June, 2007, the average building area of pre-sale houses listed in 40 key cities was 1 15 square meters, and the supply of low-priced ordinary commodity housing and affordable housing suitable for local residents' self-occupation demand was still insufficient. Second, housing prices in some cities are still rising rapidly. During the period of 20071October 165438+, the housing prices in cities with relatively large increases were: Fuzhou rose 10.4%, Beijing rose 10.3%, Shenzhen rose 9.8%, Xiamen rose 9.6%, Qinhuangdao rose 9.3%. Third, the housing security system is not perfect, and the housing problem of low-income families has not been fundamentally solved.

Further analysis of the above problems has deeper reasons.

First, the two 70% control measures for ordinary housing below 90 square meters are unconvincing and operability. This measure is an important measure to improve the housing supply structure and meet the self-occupation needs of local residents. But what is the goal of these measures, whether to meet the needs of the new generation or to replace the old residents with new residents? If all of them are included, it also involves the problem of residents' housing consumption target, and whether 90 square meters of housing is the target of residents' housing in the next few years. In addition, after the target positioning is determined, what is the demand and is the proportion 70%? All these need to be given scientific and reasonable explanations to be convincing and get the understanding and support of developers.

At the same time, the sales of low-priced houses lack maneuverability, including the qualification examination of buyers, housing sales procedures, supervision and management. And it is difficult to implement these measures effectively.

Second, institutional problems restrict the enthusiasm of local governments to implement housing control policies. First, GDP is the main index to assess local political achievements, and the investment speed of real estate industry and the decline of house price increase directly affect local economy. Second, land revenue is the main fiscal revenue available to local governments, and land price limit will affect local revenue. Third, the source of funds for implementing low-and medium-priced housing and improving the housing security system is not clear, and local governments need to raise funds themselves. Several factors directly affect local interests.

Third, the low return on investment affects the enthusiasm of developers to build low-grade housing. Low-and middle-grade housing is a market-oriented behavior under certain administrative restrictions. On the basis of limiting apartment types and housing prices, competitive land prices and housing prices are adopted. What developers pursue is investment income. The result is that in the case of satisfying the developer's income, the house price may be very high (there is a precedent in Guangzhou), and the developer does not actively participate because of the low expected income.

Fourth, the housing security system is not perfect. First, the housing security system is not perfect. The responsibility of the government to solve the housing problem of low-income people is not clear, and there is no legal and institutional guarantee. Second, some cities have not yet established a low-rent housing system, the affordable housing system needs to be further improved, and the coverage of the housing security system is too small. Third, the housing security system is not implemented. In most cities, there is no clear management organization, the source of funds is not institutionalized, and there is no family file and application approval system for the lowest-income residents.

Fifth, the lack of housing information, archives and other basic system construction. Using tax, credit and other economic means to curb investment demand and foreign real estate speculation, because there is no housing file in real-name registration system, it is difficult to implement it accurately, which reduces the efficiency of regulation. At the same time, it is difficult to achieve better policy suggestions to optimize the allocation of existing housing through the implementation of real estate tax.

policy advice

We should continue to improve and implement the real estate regulation and control policies, and at the same time pay attention to the long-term system construction, treat both the symptoms and the root causes, and create conditions for better regulation and control.

First, strengthen the statistical work of housing information and establish a housing file registration system. Integrate the statistical system, build systematic statistical resources, and establish the housing file registration system in the real-name registration system.

Second, establish scientific housing consumption goals and consumption patterns. First, according to the land resources and population situation in Scientific Outlook on Development and China, it is clear that at the current stage of economic development, 90 square meters of housing can meet the housing needs of ordinary low-and middle-income residents. The second is to accurately count the housing demand of low-and middle-income ordinary residents, and arrange the land supply plan and construction plan of low-and middle-priced ordinary commodity housing according to the actual demand. The third is to advocate the scientific consumption mode of "rent and purchase at the same time" according to the consumption ability, and reasonably guide the housing consumption of ordinary residents.

Third, mobilize the enthusiasm of local governments to implement regulatory policies and create institutional conditions for local governments to seriously implement regulatory measures. The first is to reform the performance appraisal system of local officials and weaken the impact of GDP growth. The second is to reform and improve the tax-sharing system, so that the power and financial power of local governments are symmetrical. The third is to reform the land revenue system and reduce the dependence of local governments on land revenue.

Fourth, improve the housing security system; Meet the housing needs of ordinary residents. The government should assume the housing responsibility of low-and middle-income residents and establish a sound housing security system. First, establish a multi-level housing security system according to the ability of low-income residents to pay. Implement low-rent housing policy for low-income people; Provide affordable housing for low-income people. The second is to establish a housing security fund to solve the source of funds. The third is to establish a housing file and distribution system for low-income people, and make timely follow-up adjustments, and arrange housing investment and housing distribution according to actual needs, so as to ensure that all insurance is guaranteed.

At the same time, the government should give some policy support to the construction of low-priced ordinary houses and increase the supply of ordinary houses according to demand. And formulate detailed rules for the targeted sales of ordinary housing, and give preferential treatment in terms of distribution, mortgage interest rate, down payment ratio, and the use of provident fund loans to meet the housing needs of ordinary residents and reduce the cost of buying houses.

Fifth, promote the implementation of real estate tax and rationally allocate real estate resources. According to the housing situation of residents, levying different property taxes can curb investment demand, make full use of existing houses and provide a stable source of income for local finance, which is the fundamental solution to the current real estate market problems.