From land price limit and house price limit to notarization and lottery: a microcosm of investment in housing enterprises metropolitan area behind the regulation and overweight of third-tier cities

On May 8, the Office of the Coordination Group for the Sustainable and Healthy Development of Shaoxing Real Estate Market (Shaoxing) issued the Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of Shaoxing Real Estate Market, which included "increasing the supply of homestead, trying out notarization and lottery, improving pre-sale conditions, limiting housing prices in hot spots, and cracking down on market chaos such as hoarding".

Lu Wenxi, an analyst of Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate Market, pointed out that from the perspective of policy content, measures involving land, new house supply and market sales order are also some measures being used in other cities. Judging from these measures, the excessive rise in housing prices has indeed been controlled. It shows that these measures are effective, and it is expected that these measures will bring "efficacy" to Shaoxing property market.

Lu Wenxi believes that Shaoxing is not far from Hangzhou and Shanghai, and it takes 1-3 hours by car, belonging to the metropolitan area around Shanghai and Hangzhou. Shanghai and Hangzhou's property market fever will naturally spread to Shaoxing. In June this year, the price of new houses in Shaoxing was less than 20,000. Since then, the price has been rising all the way, with the highest exceeding 24,000/m2, and most of the time fluctuating between 23,000 and 24,000/m2. At the same time, this year, the land market has also started to be hot, and the land king has appeared in Ke Qiao. The market is enthusiastic. After the adjustment and upgrading of Shanghai and Hangzhou, the surrounding cities are under the pressure of "price depression" and "policy depression". In order to prevent the property market from heating up further, the policy of stabilizing the property market was introduced.

Why did Shaoxing intensify its regulation?

From 5438+2020 10, Shaoxing's property market regulation policy is clear, and the filing price of new commercial housing is subject to a "double filing" system. The price filing of new projects comprehensively considers other similar housing prices or "land cost" in the same region, and the price filing of additional projects shall not be higher than the price of the first commercial housing. Now, the new policy is mainly to further implement the main responsibility of the real estate market regulation, adhere to the positioning of "housing and not speculating", and implement the goal of "stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations" to promote the stable and healthy development of Shaoxing real estate market.

Since the beginning of this year, Shaoxing has shown signs of increasing regulation. On April 9th, the Office of the Coordination Group for the Sustainable and Healthy Development of Shaoxing Real Estate Market issued the Notice on Further Regulating the Order of the Real Estate Market, including preventing operating loans and consumer loans from illegally flowing into the real estate market; Severely crack down on illegal acts of real estate enterprises; Severely crack down on illegal acts of real estate agents and strictly regulate the release of real estate market information. Shaoxing once again emphasizes the real estate policy of housing and not speculating.

Like the pressure of rising house prices in cities around Shanghai and Hangzhou metropolitan areas, Shaoxing has also faced a double rise in land prices and house prices in the past two years. In 2020, the premium rate of land price transactions in Shaoxing increased, and Shaoxing * * * sold 135 residential plots, and received nearly 82.9 billion yuan.

Shaoxing, as a bridgehead fully integrated into Hangzhou metropolitan area, has also accepted the spillover pressure of land acquisition by Hangzhou real estate enterprises. Many housing enterprises first entered Zhejiang and chose peripheral tactics, and Shaoxing became the first choice for investment. Foreign housing enterprises such as Agile Real Estate and Fantasia Year successively settled in Shaoxing, and then sought land acquisition opportunities in Hangzhou.

In the first half of 2020, the local auction premium in Shaoxing was as high as 48%; Throughout the year, Shaoxing land price has risen by 64% for three consecutive years. To this end, Shaoxing issued a policy in July 2020, stipulating that the premium rate of local auctions in each district should not exceed 10%.

According to the data of Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate Marketing Department, during the five weeks from March 29th to April 26th, the number of transactions in Shaoxing market ranged from more than 300 sets to more than 500 sets, with the highest transaction of 507 sets a week, slightly lower than that in Taicang around Shanghai. Since the Spring Festival in February 20021,the average price of first-hand houses in Shaoxing has soared. It can be said that the volume and price of first-hand houses have risen together, which has promoted Shaoxing's trial notarization and lottery.

Investment layout of housing enterprises around Shanghai

Shaoxing is a microcosm of housing enterprises investing in the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan area. Centralized land supply across the country has brought unprecedented pressure to the capital chain of housing enterprises. Housing enterprises participate in multiple plots at one time, and need to take out a large amount of land deposit at one time to test their financial strength. From May 7th to 8th, there were 57 cases of land supply in Hangzhou, and foreign housing enterprises flocked to Hangzhou. According to informed sources, a real estate company only signed a deposit and invested 20 billion yuan. Although there are also small housing enterprises in the auction site of Hangzhou's centralized land supply, compared with the financial strength of large housing enterprises, the acquisition of high-quality plots is still won by large housing enterprises at high prices.

In addition, according to the new regulations on centralized land supply previously announced by Shanghai, including a series of measures such as setting the highest premium rate 10% in the bidding process and standardizing the concept of the same applicant, it shows that the threshold for housing enterprises to acquire land in first-tier cities is constantly improving, and they have to look to the surrounding cities of Shanghai or the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan area.

Shaoxing property market is not only the first choice for the layout of housing enterprises in Hangzhou metropolitan area, but also a competitive market for housing enterprises around Shanghai. 202 1 Three earth auctions in late March, two of which were born in Shaoxing Wang Di and Ke Qiao Wang Di respectively; The remaining one is also sold at the top price.

Under the background that the capital environment is gradually tightening and the difficulty of land investment is increasing, it can be regarded as the effect of plate rotation that housing enterprises transfer the battlefield of Diwang to the second and third tier cities around Shanghai. Since the beginning of the year, the land markets in Nantong, Shaoxing, Yancheng and other cities have been booming, attracting many developers to compete for land, and land transactions with high bidding rounds and high premiums have occurred frequently.

Taking Shaoxing as an example, Xiangsheng Real Estate, a 100-billion-yuan housing enterprise, started in Zhuji, and its strategy of deepening Shaoxing remains unchanged. In March, Xiangsheng Real Estate won the plots in Yuecheng District and Keqiao District, with a total investment of over 5 billion yuan and a floor price of 27,865,438 yuan +08 yuan/square meter, with a premium rate of 33.2%, which refreshed the floor price of Shaoxing in one fell swoop. Other floor prices are 267 19 yuan/m2. These two plots set a new land price record in Shaoxing and Ke Qiao respectively.

In March, the total transaction volume of main properties for sale in Yuecheng District, the core area of Shaoxing was 15 12 sets, up 383 sets from February and 34% from the previous month. The average price of the main building for sale is 25,764 yuan/square meter. Since the beginning of this year, the land markets in Yancheng and Nantong have also continued to heat up. CR2 1005, a commercial and residential plot in Haimen District, hit a new high in the starting price in Haimen District, with an average listing price of 12060 yuan/square meter, and Jiangsu Zhihao won with a premium rate of 19.24%. Dafa, which is in the climbing stage, also invested 65.438+0.2 billion yuan to acquire land in Nantong, setting a new land price in Tongzhou District.

There are indications that housing enterprises are enthusiastic about investing in metropolitan areas around Shanghai and Hangzhou. Judging from the data in recent years, the land transfer fees of hot cities around Shanghai, such as Ningbo, Suzhou and Wuxi, are also increasing year by year.

On April 29th, Wuxi centralized land supply, and more than 80 real estate enterprises signed up for land auction. Sunac invested 6.63 billion yuan to win four plots of land and absorbed 65.438+05.3 billion yuan in two days. Almost every land auction took two hours, and the situation was deadlocked. According to the data of Ke Rui Research Center, the land transfer fee in Wuxi increased from 5.88 billion yuan in 20 15 to 10289 billion yuan last year, with an increase of 1649%.

Since the beginning of this year, the investment of real estate enterprises in second-tier and third-and fourth-tier cities is basically the same. The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is the hottest, accounting for 40. 1%, followed by Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, accounting for 8.0%, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomerations account for 6.5% and 7.0% respectively.

Adjust to normal state

The heat of the land market soon spread to the second-hand housing market. In March this year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that housing prices in second-and third-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta rose to varying degrees. Among them, housing prices in hot cities around Shanghai such as Ningbo, Nanjing, Wuxi, Wenzhou and Yangzhou all increased by more than 5% year-on-year. These cities have also been frequently regulated recently.

According to the data of Ke Rui, during February 2020 1-65438+, the sales performance of real estate enterprises around Shanghai was 296.02 billion yuan, with a total sales area of 15565 million square meters.

It has become a trend for housing enterprises to dig deep into the metropolitan area of first-tier cities, especially large housing enterprises such as Sunac and Rongxin. Vanke's 2020 annual report shows that the sales amount in Shanghai (Shanghai and its surrounding cities) accounts for 33.76% of the national sales, far exceeding other regions.

In fact, looking at the national property market, in March this year, Jinhua, Yiwu and Yongkang under Shaoxing have introduced regulatory policies because of the rise in land prices and housing prices. Shaoxing is not an isolated case. Many second-and third-tier cities in China are gradually stepping up regulation. On April 6, Hefei Housing Management Bureau issued the "Eight New Deal Articles" for real estate, covering eight aspects, including the degree system, the purchase restriction of second-hand houses, and the "lottery purchase restriction" of hot real estate; On April 1 1, the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Dongguan City, Guangdong Province released the work trends-the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Dongguan City acted quickly to implement the regulation requirements of "one city, one policy".

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, pointed out that the total number of real estate regulation and control in various places during the year has exceeded 160. From ministries to local governments, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has conducted inspections in Hangzhou, Wuxi and other cities, and issued regulatory policies under the supervision.