More favorable supporting policies such as the second-child policy or housing in second-tier cities have become the key to "dare to live"

After the liberalization of the three-child birth policy, the "house" in the "basic necessities of life" has become the focus of social discussion. Whether the house is enough to live in and how to take care of the children before they are three years old has become a realistic problem faced by couples of childbearing age.

The industry believes that the first-tier cities have high child-rearing costs and low fertility willingness, and the three-child policy may be more beneficial to second-tier cities. The population of second-tier cities is expected to surpass that of first-tier cities in the future. In addition, housing cost is an important factor affecting the fertility rate. If couples of childbearing age want to have children and dare to have children, they need to work hard on a series of supporting measures such as housing, childcare, education, housekeeping and employment.

It is more beneficial for second-tier cities to let go of the three children

Since the implementation of the policy of "two children alone" and "two children in an all-round way", the fertility rate of "two children" in China has increased significantly, and the proportion of "two children" in the birth population has increased from about 30% in 20 13 to about 50% in 20 17. In 20 16 and 20 17, the birth population in China increased significantly, exceeding180,000 and 170,000 respectively. Since 20 18, the number of births has decreased. In 2020, the population born in China will be120,000.

Li, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, believes that the two-child policy has indeed stimulated the growth of housing demand to a certain extent. "There are basically two groups of people who have two children, one is a high-income group with less economic pressure, and the other is a group with a strong sense of clan. They are mainly concentrated in third-and fourth-tier cities and even rural areas, but the birth policy has little impact on their housing needs. "

Then, can the dividend of the two-child policy in stimulating housing demand be copied to the three children? The industry has different views on this.

"The biggest beneficiary cities of the three-child policy are second-tier cities. First-tier cities have high parenting costs and low fertility willingness, but second-tier cities have better infrastructure and living environment. " Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of RealData, believes that "in the future, under the trend of population return in first-tier cities and population transfer in third-and fourth-tier cities, the population of second-tier cities is expected to exceed that of first-tier cities."

"For first-tier cities such as Beishang, even if the three-child policy is liberalized, the proportion of people who are really willing to have three children is still unknown. This trend can also be seen from the current promotion ratio of two children. " Jaco, dean of the branch of Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, said.

"The three-child policy is good for the real estate market, but don't overestimate the impact of this policy on the whole country. Powerful people have never been' suppressed'. " Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that the rapid development of the real estate industry in the past decade has largely benefited from the second and third baby boomers in the 1970s and 1990s, during which the formation and increase of the number of families brought huge housing demand. Benefiting from the increase of demographic dividend in the future, there will be new real estate demand in the long run, but the quantity will not reverse the trend of real estate. Taking Beijing as an example, he said, "The previous two-child policy had little impact on the market."

According to the results of a recent 10000 questionnaire survey in an institution, the proportion of married families with one child is 58%, and the proportion of families with two children is 30%. In two-child families, the proportion of people who are willing to have three children is close to 55%. Due to the different customs and living costs in different regions, the willingness to have three children is obviously divided. Guangdong, Gansu and Guangxi have a strong desire to have three children, with the proportion of fertility willingness exceeding 50%, and Guangdong is the highest, accounting for 65%. Guizhou, Shandong, Hebei, Chongqing, Sichuan, Fujian and other provinces have fertility wishes of over 40%.

Do families with three children need to change rooms? The results of the questionnaire survey show that the overall proportion of families with three children planning to change houses is close to 90%, and the demand for changing houses is strong. Among them, second-tier cities have the largest demand for housing replacement, accounting for 9 1%, followed by first-tier cities with 88% and third-and fourth-tier cities with 86%, and county towns are the weakest, accounting for 79%. "This may be because the lower the energy level of the city, the larger the original apartment, and the more it can meet the housing needs of the new population in one step."

The supporting policy of three children needs to be improved urgently.

According to the data of the seventh national census, the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in China is 1.3 in 2020, which is already at a low level, mainly due to the continuous decrease of the number of women of childbearing age and the gradual weakening of the "two-child" effect.

"The low fertility rate is also the result of economic and social development. The fertility level is influenced by both policy factors and economic, social and cultural factors, and the influence of the latter is gradually increasing. " Zhe, deputy head of the leading group of the seventh national census in the State Council and director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference of the main data results of the seventh national census.

In recent years, high housing prices have been regarded as the best "contraceptive", especially for the working class in big cities. The price of school district housing and every move of education policy affect the hearts of all parties. In addition, the high cost of child care, the pressure of life and work, the limited energy, the elderly parents who are difficult to take care of, and the limited workplace for women have all become obstacles to family decision-making.

At the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on May 3, 20265438, Kloc-0, it was specifically mentioned that "marriage, parenting and education should be considered as a whole, education and guidance on the concept of marriage and family for marriageable young people should be strengthened, bad social customs such as bad marriage customs and sky-high bride price should be controlled, the service level of prenatal and postnatal care should be improved, and a universal care service system should be developed. It is also advocated that maternity leave and maternity insurance systems should be improved, and support policies such as taxation and housing should be strengthened.

Under the principle of "no real estate speculation", the housing policy support for three-child families can be expected in the future. Xu Xiaole suggested that we can start from the perspective of reducing the cost of buying a house, such as appropriately reducing the down payment ratio of families with many children, calculating the down payment ratio and loan interest rate according to the first purchase of a house for the improved demand of "selling one and buying one", increasing the mortgage interest tax deduction, and reducing the related taxes and fees of families with many children in the purchase transaction and holding.

Liang Jianzhang, the co-founder and chairman of the executive board of Ctrip, who has long been concerned about population issues, even suggested that families with three children should buy houses at half price in high-priced areas.

Liang Jianzhang said that more than half of the current house price is the price of land, which can be returned to families as housing subsidies (for example, in high-priced areas, the house price for the first child is 10% off, the price for the second child is 30% off, and the price for the third child is 50% off), and at the same time, the index of construction land in that area should be increased. "Our land policy should be people-oriented. In places with large population inflows, it is necessary to give more housing land indicators, increase supply, and stabilize housing prices. "

On the other hand, with the introduction of the three-child policy, the future family life pattern may change. Some developers quickly launched a "five-bedroom" promotional copy, and some analysts expressed optimism about large huxing. However, it should be noted that "housing is not speculation" is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and the supporting measures for three children should really benefit the people, instead of becoming an opportunity for some groups to "cut leeks" and "bonus hunter".

"The change of apartment area should not go to extremes," Jaco pointed out. "The differences between North and South, housing prices and ideas will lead to obvious differences on this issue. We should not' slap our heads' on this issue, but should fully understand the local needs. "

In addition, the arrival of three children is not only a matter of adding a room, but also brings supporting problems such as child care from the perspective of the community, which will bring great thinking and development space to the future real estate development, property services and residents' service industries.

"According to the relevant survey of the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of children of women of childbearing age in China is 1.8. As long as corresponding support measures are taken, the actual fertility potential can be brought into play. " Ning Zhen Ji said.