Fuli sunshine mercure property

I saw it online, too. think it over ...

Xxxx Project Loan Feasibility Assessment Report

The first part is an overview.

I. Description of assessment

This appraisal report is entrusted by the business department of Guangdong Branch of Agricultural Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the entrusting party) to evaluate the feasibility of applying for development loan for XX project. The benchmark date of appraisal is September, 2003 17. This appraisal report is for reference only when the entrusting party examines the loan application, and is not used for other purposes.

Second, the purpose of evaluation

Provide reference for the entrusting party to review the loan application.

Third, the evaluation basis

This report is based on the current national laws, regulations and policies, as well as the relevant information provided by the entrusting party and the borrowing enterprise.

1, laws, regulations and policies issued by the National People's Congress, the State Council and relevant ministries and commissions, and relevant departments of Guangdong and Guangzhou;

2. Relevant information provided by the entrusting party and the borrowing enterprise;

3. Guangzhou real estate market price information;

4. Relevant information held by the Company and information obtained by appraisers through on-site investigation;

5. Other information.

Four. Project overview

1, geographical location and environment

Xxxx project is located in the southeast corner of the intersection of Airport Road and Huangshi Road, with Airport Road in the west and Huangshi Road in the north. There are newly planned roads in the east and south. Southern Baiyun International Airport is about to move to Huadu New International Airport, and many large commercial and residential communities have been built or are under construction around it. There are many bus lines passing through Airport Road and Huangshi Road, and the traffic is very convenient. Adjacent to Xiang Jing Garden, Baiyun Jing Jun Garden, Huangshi Sub-district Office, Baiyun Jingui Bus Terminal, North District Power Supply Bureau, etc. Public buildings and urban infrastructure are perfect.

At present, Baiyun International Airport is about to be relocated, and its original land is intended to be used to build a super-large comprehensive residential area-Baiyun New City. The project is located in the north of Baiyun New Town in the future, with a total area of about110.5 million square meters and a total construction area of nearly 226,000 square meters. It is estimated that the total investment is about 830 million yuan. After the completion of the whole project, it will become one of the large-scale ecological residential quarters in Guangzhou.

2. Project background

The XXX project was awarded by Guangzhou XXX Development Co., Ltd. (XXX ××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××× At present, it is under development and construction. The first phase of 8 buildings 12 floors is expected to be completed and delivered in April 2004, and the second phase 15 small high-rise buildings and high-rise buildings are expected to be completed and delivered in March 2005.

3. Plan drawing

According to the reply of Guangzhou Planning Bureau on the detailed planning of XX project, the overall controlling technical indicators of the project are:

1) The building plot ratio is 2.545;

2) Building density: 26.5%;

3) Total construction area 172408 m2 (including overground 15395 1 m2, basement 18457 m2, primary school 12000 m2 and other supporting buildings 1765 m2).

4) The green rate is 37.5%;

According to the master plan, the * * project will build 23 small high-rise and high-rise residential buildings and commercial and residential buildings, with the above-ground building floors of 12 ~ 19 respectively, with the residential building area of * *132003.2 square meters and the commercial building area of 8 183 square meters; Basement 1 floor, with a total construction area of 18457 m2; There are also supporting primary schools, businesses, neighborhood committees, public toilets and gas pressure regulating stations.

4, the project schedule

According to the introduction of XX company, the construction of XX project started in May 2003, and the construction unit was Guangdong XX Construction Co., Ltd. As of September 17, 2003, eight buildings in the first phase had been built to floors 7 and 10 respectively, and the pre-sale permit had been obtained. According to the construction plan of XXX company, the first phase of 8 buildings is expected to be completed and delivered in March 2004, and the second phase 15 building is expected to start demolition and engineering construction in June 2003 +065438+ 10, and is expected to be completed and delivered before March 2005.

The second part is the evaluation of project legality and construction conditions.

I. Evaluation of Project Legitimacy

At present, the XX project has gone through the construction land planning permit, and the first-phase building has gone through the procedures of construction project application review, construction project planning permit, construction permit, Guangzhou state-owned land use right transfer contract, construction land approval, state-owned land use permit, commercial housing pre-sale permit, etc., that is to say, except for those that have not been demolished. The planning, construction application, construction, land use and other procedures of the Southern District Project have all been completed (see the annex for details). According to XX Company, the procedures for the second phase of its construction are under application.

Second, the evaluation of project construction conditions

1, technical and economic indicators of the project

According to the reply provided by XX Company on the detailed planning for the construction of the southern district of XX Project, the total construction area of XX Project is 172408 square meters, of which the above-ground construction area is 15395 1 square meter and the basement construction area is 18457 square meter. See Table 65457 for details of each functional component and its area.

Unit: square meters, each

Serial number items are marked with reference to standards.

1 land area 85802

2 Total construction area 172408.

2. 1 basement construction area 18457 basement 1 floor, which is the equipment room and supporting parking lot.

2.2 The above-ground building area is 15395 1

2.2 1 in which: Commercial 8 183.

2.22 The floors above 12, 15, 16, 17, 18 and 19 of the residential building.

2.23 Primary school 12000 includes teaching building and student dormitory.

2.24 Other supporting facilities 1765 include clubs, public toilets and neighborhood committees.

3 plot ratio 2.545

4 Building density 27%

5. The greening rate is 37.5%

The number of parking spaces is 466, of which unsold social parking spaces 106.

The third part is market investigation and analysis.

I. Analysis of the investment environment of the project (omitted)

Second, the real estate market analysis

In the first half of 2003, the growth rate of real estate development investment in Guangdong slowed down. The fixed assets investment of the whole society was1834.1.90 billion yuan, up by 27.9%, and the investment in real estate development was 5,068.8 billion yuan, up by 7.6%, down by 25.2% compared with the same period of last year, of which the investment in commercial housing was 3,795.2 billion yuan, accounting for 74.9% of the investment in real estate development. In the first half of 2003, Guangdong's real estate development investment was not affected by SARS, the sales of commercial housing maintained steady growth, the price fluctuated little, and the growth rate of vacant area showed obvious signs of slowing down. In the first half of the year, the sales volume of commercial housing was 33.52 billion yuan, and the sales area was1003999,900 square meters, up by 27.3% and 27% respectively. The average selling price of commercial housing in the whole province is 3,339 yuan/m2, slightly higher than the same period of last year by 7 yuan/m2, and the growth rate of vacant area of commercial housing has decreased from 65,438+36.3% in February to 15.

From June 5438 to August 2003, the approved pre-sale area of commercial housing in the tenth district of Guangzhou was 5.379 million square meters, an increase of 9 16% over the same period of last year, of which the approved pre-sale area of commercial housing in the original eighth district was 3.3065 million square meters, an increase of 188 1% over the same period of last year. The transaction area of commercial housing in the tenth district of Guangzhou was 6097 1 10,000 square meters, and the transaction amount was 27198 million yuan, up by 8.84% and 6.79% respectively over the same period of last year. Among them, the transaction area of commercial housing in the original eight districts was 3,938,700 square meters, and the transaction amount was 20.824 billion yuan, up 65,438 respectively over the same period of last year. According to statistics, the average price of commercial housing in Guangzhou in the first half of this year was 4,279 yuan, down 5. 1% year-on-year. It reflects that the fierce competition in the real estate market leads to the decrease of developers' profits. Only by constantly benefiting consumers and upgrading product grades can developers be in an invincible position, which also shows that the real estate market in Guangzhou is becoming more and more mature and standardized.

Third, the surrounding property survey and analysis

There are many commercial and residential communities under construction or completed around XXX project. After field investigation, their current general situation is as follows:

1, Xiang Jing Garden: north of Huangshi Road, investment and construction began in the middle and late 1990s. * * 38 multi-storey and 13 high-rise residential or commercial buildings have all been put into use. There are primary schools, provincial kindergartens and markets in the community, of which the first phase has been sold out, the second phase has been sold out nearly half, and the third phase is 65438+ this year. The residential price range is about 3700-4000 yuan/square meter, the average price is about 3900 yuan/square meter, and the transaction price of second-hand houses is about 3 100-3500 yuan/square meter. The rental price of commercial shops on the first floor is around 35-60 yuan /m2, and most commercial areas have been rented out. Parking spaces in the basement are only rented, not sold. The monthly rent is 400-450 yuan/set, which is almost full.

2. Baiyun Jing Jun Garden: Commercial and residential community of the same grade, covering an area of about 40,000 square meters, consisting of 16 small high-rise, supporting kindergartens and Mediterranean-style gardens of nearly 10000 square meters. The east, south and north are planned roads, and the traffic is relatively inconvenient at present. It is estimated that the first phase will be completed and delivered in March 2004, and its residential price range is about 3,800 yuan. There are about 250 parking spaces in the basement, and the current sales strategy is to rent only and not sell.

3. Yuanbang Aviation Home: Northwest of the intersection of Airport Road and Huangshi Road, belonging to a medium-sized commercial and residential community. A number of commercial and residential buildings have been built and occupied, and another commercial and residential building along Huangshi Road will be delivered soon. The residential price range is about 4100-4,800 yuan/square meter, and the average price is about 4,400 yuan/square meter. Some street shops on the first floor have been sold. At present, most shops are rented and closed. The rental price is about 80 yuan/square meter, and the basement parking space costs 60,000-90,000 yuan/car.

4.R&F Sunshine Mercure: It belongs to a large commercial and residential community in the southwest of the intersection of Airport Road and Huangshi Road and south of Yuanbang Aviation Home. The first phase has been sold out, and now two high-rise residential buildings are on sale in the second phase, and the third phase is planned to be on sale at 5438+00 in June. The average residential price is about 4400 yuan/square meter, and the supporting commercial area is small. The price of individual street shops on the first floor is around 8000-65438+.

5. Huiqiao New Town: south of Huangshi Road, it belongs to a large commercial and residential complex. Many small and high-rise residential and commercial buildings have been built, and most residents have moved in. The price of second-hand house is about 3100-3,600 yuan/square meter, the individual transaction price is 2,600 yuan/square meter, and the basement parking space is 80,000 yuan/set.

According to market research, the functional design, supporting facilities and target customers of XX project are similar to those of surrounding buildings. Due to the increasing population and improving living environment in this area, generally speaking, its residence is close to Xiang Jing Garden, Baiyun Jing Jun Garden and R&F Sunshine Mercure, so the price of the above-mentioned real estate is selected as the comparison object of this residence, and the sales value of its residence is calculated by market comparison method. In addition, because its supporting business and basement parking spaces are mainly leased, the income reduction method is chosen as an evaluation method to measure the sales value of its business and parking spaces.

Fourth, the project advantages and disadvantages analysis

Through market research and analysis, the product positioning and target customers of XX project are also very close to several surrounding buildings along Airport Road and Huangshi Road, and the difference between them is relatively small. Its advantages and disadvantages are mainly reflected in the difference between the old houses with early functional design and the small projects lacking supporting facilities in this respect. Specifically, this project has the following advantages:

(1) has an excellent geographical location. The project is located in the north of Baiyun New Town, the future sub-center of Guangzhou, near Huangshi Road. Commercial and living facilities have been continuously improved, and the planned road network has been improved. In particular, Metro Line 2 (terminal section) has set up an exit around the South District Project, which is under construction. It is expected that the opening of planned roads and subways will greatly improve the current external traffic conditions of Xiaogang Village, which is very conducive to attracting people.

(2) The starting point of supporting facilities is high. XX Primary School, located within the scope of the Southern District Project, officially entered the school in September this year. Due to the increasing demand of consumers for educational facilities, relevant government departments continue to use the promotion of educational facilities as a means to attract investment. As a private experimental school with a very high design level, this primary school will greatly improve the level of supporting facilities of the project, and in the long run, it will greatly enhance its competitiveness.

(3) The Development Group has won many awards in the real estate industry, and XX Garden has also successfully developed the regional market, with ideal sales performance and a certain brand effect, which will play a positive role in promoting the development and construction of the Southern District project.

On the other hand, the XXX project itself also has some shortcomings, mainly in:

(1) The project is located in the west of Airport Road and south of Huangshi Road. At present, the external traffic is mainly the old road near Xiaogang Village and the residential road east of XX Garden in the north. The planned road has not been officially opened to the airport road and Huangshi road, and the external traffic of the southern district project is relatively inconvenient in the short term.

(2) The stock and new supply of similar properties in the adjacent areas are relatively large, and there are many competitors in the project. After the completion, the regional market competition will be very fierce.

Verb (abbreviation of verb) Expected sales price evaluation

1. Evaluation methods: market comparison method and income reduction method.

2. Evaluation principle: follow the principles of legality, optimal utilization, substitution and evaluation period.

3. Evaluation process: according to the project area and its actual situation, determine the comparison object of its residence, calculate the development value of its residence, and calculate the development value of its business and parking space by income reduction method. The specific process is as follows:

(1) Determination of residential sales value

Because the target customers and product positioning of residential buildings in South District are close to sample garden, Baiyun Jing Jun Garden and R&F Sunshine Mercure, they are selected as comparison objects, and their sales unit prices are determined through comparative calculation. See Table 2 below for the specific process:

Unit: Yuan/㎡

Project number case 1 case 2 case 3

Xiang Jing Garden Baiyun Jing Jun Fuhe Sunshine

1 unit sales price 3900 4480 4400

2. The transaction is changed to100%100%100%.

3. The transaction date is changed to100%100%100%.

4. Modify the service life100%100%100%.

5 regional factor correction102%101%100%

6 personal factor correction 102% 94% 94%

7 The revised unit is 4058 4253 4 136.

8 The unit price of the appraised object is 4 148.96.

9 Rounding 4 149

According to the above calculation, it is determined that the average selling price of residential buildings in South District is 4 149 yuan/m2, and the estimated selling value of the total building area of residential buildings is 132003.2 m2, which is 547.68 million yuan.

(2) Determination of commercial sales value

(1) First, determine the average rent of commercial shops in the south project through market survey, and then estimate the sales unit price of commercial shops by income reduction method. After investigation, it is determined that the monthly rental unit price of commercial shops in the South District is 65 yuan/m2 when they are completed and put into use.

(2) The parameters for calculating the sales unit price by income reduction method are shown in Table 3:

Comprehensive tax rates, management rates, maintenance rates and insurance rates such as annual rent growth rate, discount rate, rent loss rate and property tax.

3% 9.0% 1 month

Note: The comprehensive tax rate and management rate such as property tax are calculated based on the monthly rental unit price, and the maintenance rate and insurance rate are calculated based on the project cost.

According to the above parameters, the average selling price of commercial shops in South District is 8046 yuan/square meter. Then the total construction area of the commercial berth is 8 183 square meters, and the sales value is 65.84 million yuan.

(3) Determination of the sales value of parking spaces in the basement.

(1) First, the average rent of parking spaces in the South District is determined through market research, and then the unit sales price of parking spaces is estimated by income reduction method. After investigation, it is determined that the monthly rental unit price of parking spaces in South District is 450 yuan/vehicle.

(2) See Table 4 for the parameters of calculating sales unit price by income reduction method:

Comprehensive tax rates, management rates, maintenance rates and insurance rates such as annual rent growth rate, discount rate, rent loss rate and property tax.

1% 7% 1 month 18% 3% 3% 0.2%

Note: The comprehensive tax rate and management rate such as property tax are calculated based on the monthly rental unit price, and the maintenance rate and insurance rate are calculated based on the project cost.

Based on the project cost.

According to the above parameters, it is calculated that the average unit price of parking spaces in South District is 63,000 yuan/vehicle. Then the sales value of 360 saleable basement parking spaces is 22.68 million yuan.

(4) According to the above calculation, the total sales revenue of the Southern District Project is estimated to be * * * 636.2 million yuan.

(5) The estimated sales progress of the project

According to the construction progress provided by XXX company, the first and second phases of the Southern District will be completed and put into use in March 2005, and are expected to be sold out by the end of May 2005. The construction period of the project is about 1.75 years, and the sales period is about 1.75 years. The total development period is nearly two years from May 2003 to May 2005, and the sales progress can be expected.

Proportion of total sales revenue per hour (ten thousand yuan) to total sales.

3.22% in the third quarter of 2003, 2048

7809 12.27% in the fourth quarter

In the first quarter of 2004, 8708 13.69%

Q2 6494 1.2 1%

85,865,438+0,654,38+03.49% in the third quarter

The fourth quarter1132917.438+0%

In the first quarter of 2005, 712211.20%

Section 21152818.438+02%

Total 63620 100.00%

The fourth part of the project investment estimation and analysis

I. Overview of Project Investment

The total planned investment of XXX project is 50010.37 million yuan, and XXX company has completed the project investment of 99010.65438+0.00 million yuan (including land cost of 22.79 million yuan, upfront cost of 4.64 million yuan, construction and installation cost of 56.87 million yuan, and supporting construction cost of community infrastructure of 36.5438+0.3 million yuan. The project is expected to be completed and put into use in March 2005.

According to our estimation, as of the evaluation benchmark date, the investment in the Southern District Project is about 99 1 1 ten thousand yuan, accounting for 19.77% of the total planned investment of the project. Xxxx intends to borrow 654.38+0.5 billion yuan from the bank for part of the follow-up investment, and the insufficient part will be invested by the project sales funds until the project is completed.

Second, the investment cost estimation

According to the planning and construction of XXX project, combined with the invested funds, the investment cost of the project is estimated. See XXX South District Project Investment Estimation (Estimation) Table for details.

Third, the project financing and fund balance analysis

According to the plan, the main sources of investment funds for XXX project are enterprise's own funds, bank loans and sales income. At present, all the funds invested in the South District project can be regarded as the enterprise's own funds, and the sources of its subsequent development and construction funds are mainly composed of bank loans and project pre-sale income. According to the project construction plan, 8 buildings in the first phase have received pre-sale certificates. It is estimated that after the project enters the sales stage, it still needs to invest about 398.48 million yuan (mainly land fees, project construction fees and development taxes), and bank loans and sales income can be used to pay for the subsequent construction funds of the project. Starting from the fourth quarter of 2003, the sales of eight buildings in the first phase will enter a climax. The sales income can be used to pay part of the follow-up construction funds of the project and pay interest on bank loans. Phase II/Building KLOC-0/5 can gradually repay the principal and interest of the bank loan after receiving the pre-sale certificate and carrying out the sales stage. See the financial (fund) balance sheet of XXX project (Table 6) for details.

The profit rate of pre-tax cost is 19.28%

The after-tax cost profit rate is 12.92%.

The profit rate of pre-tax sales is 15. 19%.

Sharp's profit margin after sales 10. 18%

The breakeven point is 78.8 1%

The payback period of investment is 19 months.

The financial net present value is 4026 (calculated by discount rate 10%).

The financial internal rate of return of all investments is 29.04%.

The fifth part is the solvency analysis of the project.

First, the financial benefit analysis of the project

According to the development and construction plan provided by XXX company, the total development period of XXX project is about 2 years, and the estimated construction period is about 1.75 years, that is, from May 2003 to March 2005; The sales period is *** 1.75, from September 2003 to May 2005.

According to the cash flow statement and income statement of the project, after analysis and calculation, the financial indicators of the project are as follows:

The net present value of the project is greater than 0, and the internal rate of return is higher than the industry benchmark rate of return 10%, which shows that the project has strong anti-risk ability and is economically and financially feasible from a dynamic point of view.

Second, the project break-even analysis

The total sales revenue of XXX project is 636.2 million yuan, and the after-tax net profit after deducting development and construction investment, sales expenses, business tax and surcharges and income tax is 64.76 million yuan. According to the total investment of the project of 5001.37 million yuan, the break-even point is 78.8 1%. If calculated by the sales income of saleable houses, 965,438+0.55% of the total investment can be recovered when the houses are sold. It is suggested that XX Company should do a good job in promotion during the project construction period and the initial sales period, so as to quickly withdraw funds to repay bank loans, and actively carry out shop rental business in the sales process, reduce vacancies and increase cash income.

Third, the project sensitivity analysis

According to the project sensitivity analysis data (see Table 7), the project is sensitive to the price reduction of 5% and 10%, and the internal rate of return is still higher than the industry average rate of return when the sales price is lowered; This project is sensitive to the increase of 5% and 10% in construction and installation expenses. In the case of cost increase, the internal rate of return is still higher than the industry average rate of return. The above analysis shows that this project has considerable anti-risk ability. See table 7 for indicators.

No. Project Sales Revenue (10,000 yuan) Project Total Investment (10,000 yuan) Net Present Value (calculated by discount rate 10%) Internal Rate of Return Conclusion

163620 50137 4026 29.04% of the basic scheme is feasible.

It is feasible to reduce the sales price by 5% 6043950137220619.82%.

3 It is feasible to reduce the sales price by10% 572585013738610.85%.

It is feasible to increase the total investment cost by 5% 63620 52644 2440 20.42%.

5 The increase of total investment cost 10%, 636205515085512.76% is feasible.

In addition, from the analysis of the cash flow statement of the project, it can be seen that the development cycle of the project is not too long, and the investment in the early occupation cost is also relatively small. If the sales price is properly positioned, it can gain a certain competitive advantage. By reinvesting the pre-sale income, it can form a continuous capital chain, ensure the follow-up investment and reduce the risk of development and construction.

Part VII Project Loan Risk Analysis

The loan risk comes from two aspects: the outside of the project and the project itself, mainly including:

1, market risk

At present, the competition in the real estate market is fierce. In recent years, the overall commercial housing market in Guangzhou has remained stable, and the volume of residential transactions has been increasing. The development of the project has increased the supply of commercial housing in the region, on the one hand, it has strengthened the surrounding living atmosphere, on the other hand, it has intensified the competition with the surrounding commercial and residential communities. There are many large commercial and residential communities under construction or in preparation in Airport Road and Huangshi Road, so the market supply is large, and the potential supply will increase rapidly in the next few years, and fierce competition will be hard to avoid.

Although the pre-development houses in the West and East Districts have been sold out, the market acceptance is ideal. However, in order to gain a dominant position in the fierce market competition, it is suggested that XX company should continue to innovate in architectural design, customer service and property management after occupancy under the idea of keeping the architectural style of the community consistent with customer orientation, so as to maintain the competitiveness of the project.

2. Project construction risks

The demand for project funds is large, but the enterprise's own funds are insufficient. Whether the project can be carried out as planned, in addition to whether the current first-phase sales work can be carried out smoothly as planned, bank loan funds are the key. It is suggested that Rongxing Company step up the implementation of development and construction funds, strictly control the construction period, and ensure the smooth development and construction to cooperate with the implementation of sales work.

3. Development cost risk

This project is relatively sensitive to the change of investment cost, and the increase of investment cost directly affects the income level of the project. In order to improve the economic benefits of the project, it is suggested that development enterprises, construction units and supervision units better control the development costs and strive to reduce the risk of repayment.

4. Policy risks

Policy risks mainly include the macro-control of the real estate industry by the state and the overall planning of the project area by local governments. The relocation of the old Baiyun Airport will be implemented next year, and its original land is initially planned as a large-scale commercial and residential complex. Now, several large residential quarters have been built along Huangshi Road, and the permanent population continues to increase. It can be seen that this lot belongs to the field of government-guided investment and construction, and all aspects of funds will continue to increase, which is very beneficial to the project itself in the long run.

In addition, in order to strengthen management, Guangzhou real estate management department has recently raised the requirements for pre-sale and pre-sale mortgage of commercial housing projects under construction (such as reaching the structural ceiling). ), it may have an impact on the future sales of the project in the long run.

The eighth part of the evaluation conclusion

The above analysis shows that XXX project is economically and financially feasible from the static and dynamic point of view, and the market for its developed products is guaranteed. However, XXX company is short of its own funds, and it is in urgent need of bank loans to support its continued development and construction of branches.

As ×× year × month × day × month × day × month × day × month × day × month × day × month × day × month × day × month × day × month × day × month × day × month × day × month × day × day × month × day × day × day × month × day × day × day × day × month × day × day × month × day × day × month × day ×