Comparative study of key enterprises at home and abroad

The protracted and complicated game between China and the United States has profoundly changed the future direction of China's semiconductor industry. The government's consideration of supply chain security and domestic substitution can realize the iterative upgrading of manufacturing technology in China, further promote economic transformation and guide domestic capital to reshape the competition pattern of semiconductor industry from top to bottom.

Under the background of this era, how to choose high-quality enterprise targets in this subdivision? I first sorted out the data of some major power semiconductor enterprises at home and abroad, and then got some qualitative judgments through horizontal comparative observation.

1. 1. 1 background of controlling shareholder

China Resources Group, the major shareholder of the company, is a diversified asset management platform for central enterprises. The company's predecessor can be traced back to 1983. At that time, the Fourth Machinery Department of the former Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, the Seventh Machinery Department and China Resources Group jointly established Hong Kong Huake Electronics Company in Hong Kong, and established the first 4-inch wafer production line in China. After years of development and a series of integration, it has become a comprehensive IDM semiconductor enterprise with important influence in China.

From the development history of the company, China Resources Micro's leading position in the field of power semiconductors today is the result of the continuous investment in capital operation by major shareholders. In the future, China Resources Micro will still achieve rapid expansion with the support of major shareholders.

1. 1.2 Products and technologies of China Resources Micro:

1)A * * Company has five wafer production lines. In Wuxi, there are three 6-inch production lines with an annual production capacity of about 2.47 million pieces; 8-inch production line with an annual output of 730,000 pieces. In Chongqing, we have an 8-inch production line with an annual production capacity of about 600,000 pieces. Chongqing's 8 inches mainly serve the company's own products. These two 8-inch lines were made of 20 1 1, and now they have been depreciated.

2) The company's power semiconductors can be divided into power devices and power IC, among which power device products mainly include MOSFET, IGBT, SBD and FRD；; ; Power IC products are mainly power management chip series. Among them, the revenue scale of MOSFET in 20 18 was1600 million, which was behind Infineon's 5.2 billion and Anson's 3 10/00 million, occupying 9% market share.

3) The main applications of China Resources micro-IGBT products are induction heating, UPS, inverter, frequency converter, motor drive, industrial power supply, etc. According to Infineon's standards, the technology of IGBT products currently mass-produced by the company is similar to that of the fourth generation of Infineon IGBT products. The company's fifth-generation IGBT products are under development, and it is expected that there will be achievements in the second half of 2020, and on this basis, products with different application frequencies will be developed one after another. In addition, the company's IGBT product planning route is to develop module products while developing single-tube serialized products.

4) Third generation semiconductor materials

The company retains the design, processing, packaging and testing technology of silicon-based GaN power devices and the design, processing, packaging and testing technology of SiC power devices. At present, the company is on the eve of industrialization of silicon carbide diodes. At present, a pilot production line has been established to complete the first phase of construction. 1200V and 650V silicon carbide diodes are under review, and the sales revenue is expected to be realized in 2020. The target application fields are solar inverter, communication power supply, server, energy storage equipment, etc. Silicon carbide MOSFET is under active research and development. In addition, the company's gallium nitride is currently in the research and development stage, and the dynamic and static parameters of 600V silicon-based gallium nitride HEMT devices are basically up to standard.

Note 1: MOSFET and IGBT are the two most commonly used power semiconductor devices.

In order to improve the withstand voltage of MOSFET, insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) adds a P+ layer on MOSFET and forms a pn diode with the N base layer. In the case of turn-off, the formed pn junction bears most of the shared voltage, and the MOSFET in the structure does not need to bear high voltage, which improves the withstand voltage performance of the element. Therefore, IGBT is generally used for high-voltage power products, and the voltage range is generally 600 V-6500 V; The application voltage of MOSFET is relatively low, from 10 volts to 1000V V, but the delay time of IGBT is longer than that of MOSFET, so IGBT is used in the scene with switching frequency lower than 25kHz, while MOSFET can be used in the scene with switching frequency higher than 100kHz.

Note 2: GaN is suitable for scenes with high frequency, high power and voltage less than 600 V.

Because of its excellent performance in high efficiency and miniaturization, gallium nitride has obvious advantages in radio frequency and charging. GaN has a high market growth rate and has a wide range of potential demand in the fields of radio frequency and power electronics. From the perspective of accelerating the construction of the current 5G base station, due to its superior performance and the explosive growth demand of the 5G base station, GaN is expected to achieve rapid penetration, and with the scale effect, the cost is expected to be further reduced, which will once again help improve the penetration rate of the entire downstream field.

Note 3: Silicon carbide and SiC have advantages in the high-power field of 600V and above. At present, it has been applied to new energy vehicles, wind power and other industries. According to Yole's forecast, the market size of SiC power electronic devices in 20 18 will be about 400 million US dollars, and it will increase to1400 million US dollars in 2023. At present, SiC is mainly used for charging piles in new energy vehicles, and it is expected to have a broader potential use in automotive equipment in the future.

1. 1.3 Benchmarking the market share and technology gap of international leading enterprises.

The predecessor of Silane Micro was founded by seven natural persons including Chen Xiangdong in 1997. Listed in 2003, it has gradually developed into an integrated semiconductor product company with IDM mode. The company's business strategy is to focus on characteristic technology, enter the multimedia industry, and use its own technology accumulation to enter high-threshold industries such as white goods and automobiles.

Slane micro-layout is mainly in four aspects:

1)LED lighting drive field: Take advantage of the technology and cost of control chips and power devices to speed up the development of chips and application schemes for intelligent lighting systems.

2)MEMS field: At present, three-axis accelerometer, three-axis geomagnetic sensor and six-axis inertial unit have been introduced, and MEMS sensor products such as air pressure sensor and infrared proximity sensor will be introduced in the future. The main application scenarios are mobile smart terminals, smart wear and automobiles.

Note 2: MEMS (Micro Electro Mechanical System) is a micro device or system that integrates microstructure, micro sensor, micro actuator, signal processing and control circuit, interface, communication and power supply. Compared with ordinary sensors, MEMS has the cost advantage brought by mass production of IC silicon wafers that ordinary sensors can't achieve, and at the same time has the advantages of miniaturization and high integration that ordinary sensors can't achieve.

Note 3: The application scenarios of pressure MEMS in automobiles are automobile and industrial pressure sensors, such as manifold pressure sensor, automobile oil pressure sensor module and automobile fuel pump sensor module.

Note 4: The application scenario of inertial sensor in automobile field is to help GPS navigation measure dead angle. In the automotive field, the rapid response of inertial sensors can improve the safety performance of automobile airbags, anti-lock braking systems and traction control systems.

3)IGBT field: improve the high-voltage and high-power product line: increase the investment in the research and development of high-voltage BCD process and high-voltage semiconductor power devices and modules, expand and enrich the power device products and intelligent power module products represented by IGBT, and expand their applications in new energy, high-efficiency motor drive, industrial control and other fields.

4)8-inch chip project: With the support of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Fund and the local government, the 8-inch integrated circuit chip production line was completed and put into operation. Slanway expanded its production capacity and adhered to IDM mode in special process fields.

Wen Tai Science and Technology acquired Nexperia, an independent company of NXP's standards department, in 20 19.

Anshi Group is a manufacturer specializing in the manufacture and sales of discrete devices, logic devices and MOSFET, with more than 50 years of industry accumulation and professional staff 1 1000. The manufacturing mode of Anshi is IDM. At present, there are two manufacturing production lines (Manchester, England and Hamburg, Germany) and three sealing and testing production lines (Dongguan, Philippines and Malaysia) in the world, with a wafer production capacity of about 60,000 wafers (converted into 8 inches) and sealing and testing of 654.38 billion wafers. 39% of the company's revenue comes from bipolar transistors and diodes, ranking1in the world; MOSFET accounts for 25% of the total revenue, ranking second and third respectively in the field of automotive small signals; The rest are logic devices and ESD protection devices.

Anshi's market share in China is very small, mainly at the low end. In 20 18, AXA semiconductor discrete devices shipped a total of 90 billion pieces. According to the inverted price of revenue scale, the average unit price of Anshi semiconductor products is only 0. 12 yuan, even lower than that of China Resources Micro.

1.4. 1 Infineon:

Infineon was originally the semiconductor department of Siemens Group. 1 April 19991day was formally established in Munich, Germany, and went public in 2000. After 2002, it was renamed Infineon Technology Company.

Infineon is the world's top ten semiconductor solution leader. Its main businesses include automobiles, industrial power control, power supply and sensor systems and digital security solutions. Its main products include power semiconductors, sensors and radio frequency. The company's IGBT products provide a comprehensive product portfolio with different voltage and current levels, including bare chips, discrete devices and modules, among which IGBT modules rank first in the global market share.

Financial characteristics: 1) revenue growth slowed down; 2) Gross profit margin keeps rising (20 19 is close to 35%), net interest rate keeps falling from 20 18 (less than 5%), and R&D expenses/income (15%).

2065438+In June 2009, Cypress was acquired for $8.7 billion.

In the third quarter of fiscal year 2020, our investment in real estate, plant and equipment, intangible assets and capitalized development costs was 266 million euros. In comparison, it was 247 million euros in the last quarter. Of course, there were no cypresses in the last quarter. Depreciation and amortization (including the impact of non-segment performance) totaled Euro3,865,438+0,000, including the aforementioned Euro52 million related to the fair value amortization of PPA Cypress and the continuous depreciation of Cypress' remaining assets of Euro78 million.

1.4.2 ansenmei

1999 was spun off from Motorola's semiconductor department.

In the past 20 years, the company has greatly expanded its product lineup, from traditional standard semiconductors and discrete devices to analog semiconductors and signal products, sensors and complete system on a chip (SoC). Anson Semiconductor mainly focuses on automotive, industrial and cloud power applications, such as servers in data centers, communication infrastructure and the Internet of Things. It has unparalleled advantages in the field of IGBT, providing the best IGBT technology of its kind and the widest IGBT product lineup.

At present, the total revenue of Anson Semiconductor is about 5.5 billion US dollars. In the field of power semiconductors, Anson Semiconductor ranks second in the world, second only to Infineon.

Through the merger and acquisition (17 times since its establishment), Ansenmei has grown rapidly. Especially after the acquisition of Fairchild Semiconductor, it is the second largest semiconductor supplier of power discrete devices in the world.

In 2020, the company will lay off 475 people. The layoff plan is expected to be completed in the first half of the year, but Anson did not disclose the subsidy plan for the laid-off employees.

Observing the above data collation of Infineon and Anson, and the development history of semiconductor industry in European and American markets, we can find that:

1.M&A is the normal growth of semiconductor enterprises. M&A's motivation in semiconductor industry is obviously different from that in traditional industry. Mergers and acquisitions between traditional industries often occur in stock, and mergers and acquisitions can alleviate the price war pressure in the Red Sea market. However, M&A in the semiconductor industry is carried out in the incremental market, and the motivation of M&A is often to plan ahead and lay out in advance, so as to seize the dominant position in the industry in the future competition. For example, Intel 20 16, Intel acquired the startup Nervana, and then Mobidius. Later, on the way to acquire AI chip company, Intel bought Mobileye from 20 17 and HabanaLabs from Israel from 20 19. The competition between NVIDIA and Intel for Mellanox, and the recent acquisition of Arm by NVIDIA. These acquisitions are focused on the dominance of the blue ocean market such as artificial intelligence and edge computing.

Based on the above understanding, we can find that in the future, with the technological upward iteration process and domestic substitution process of local enterprises, a large number of mergers and acquisitions will inevitably be accompanied. Therefore, whether the major shareholder has strong capital operation strength will become the core genetic puzzle of whether this local enterprise can have the potential of leading the industry.

2. The continuous improvement and high proportion of R&D expenditure of international head enterprises are important financial characteristics, while the purpose of domestic enterprises' expenditure is mainly to expand production capacity.

China enterprises, as technological chasers, have long-term competitive advantages because of their technological R&D capabilities, but the main force of China enterprises is not technological R&D, but capacity expansion. This means:

1) Our power semiconductor industry is still in a low-level primitive accumulation stage;

2) The iterative speed of R&D technology upgrading in this field is lagging behind and the production capacity is expanding rapidly, which means that the risk of excessive competition in this field cannot be ignored.

Usually, we analyze a company's core competitiveness and long-term competitive advantage, and we will combine three financial statements to evaluate the company's value and management's ability. However, in the field of power semiconductors, this analysis mode is not applicable. Because from the point of view of competitiveness, whether it is Silanwei or China Resources Micro, or even most domestic power semiconductor enterprises are still in the stage of technological catch-up. The tail-end and asset-oriented characteristics of the market determine that their financial performance will not be particularly attractive. So, what is the underlying logic of investing in these enterprises? That is the rapid growth under the background of domestic substitution. Domestic substitution is the demand for supply chain security in the current domestic cycle.

It is based on this underlying logic that the key points of constructing the analysis framework of semiconductor companies are:

1) Characteristics of the business cycle;

2) Whether an enterprise has the endowment of rapid growth mainly includes: technology accumulation (endogenous growth), capital integration ability (epitaxial growth), capacity scale (considering performance release, capital investment and depreciation pressure) and management ability.

The ability of capital integration mainly depends on the background of major shareholders, while the ability of management can be observed through management resume and long-term performance of enterprises. Technology accumulation depends on the production line planning and major customers of the enterprise.

In my opinion, the most important thing is to determine the business cycle of this industry. During the boom period, with the support of various government policies, domestic local enterprises are expected to usher in a rapid growth stage. Therefore, cycle judgment is the most important issue in investing in this high-growth industry, and it is also the basis for whether it is safe to invest in high-growth technology enterprises with backward domestic technology under the background of domestic substitution.

Referring to the above figure 1- Figure 3, we can see the following important features:

Observation 1: The growth boom of domestic semiconductor enterprises is basically in sync with the global industry boom.

Observation 2: During the period of 20 15-20 17, the growth rate of Sloan is obviously slower than that of the world semiconductor industry driven by cloud computing and automotive electronics.

It is worth discussing, what led to observation 2?

My own understanding is that during the period of 20 15-20 18, the technology upgrade iteration of Slanway met the ceiling, which made the enterprise unable to keep up with the global semiconductor industry boom like the previous two times. On the one hand, due to the low-end products of Slanway, the gross profit margin and return on assets continue to rise (see Figure 4). On the other hand, Silanwei actively increased R&D investment and capacity expansion of technology upgrading.

Figure 4: Cloud computing, big data has promoted the technological upgrading of semiconductors.

Observation of R&D expense rate

Correlation between capital price and market performance

By comparing the micro level (Si Long micro level) with the macro level (historical valuation of Shenwan Semiconductor and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index), we have the following two important findings:

1) From the perspective of compound growth characteristics (see the following table 1), domestic semiconductor IDM enterprises represented by Slanway are low-end technology catchers in the industry, and their product bargaining power is poor. Combined with the historical growth data of Sylvia, as a follower of technology, the value creation ability will be limited for a long time because of bargaining power and depreciation pressure.

2) Under the background that the current domestic policy is inclined and the domestic supply chain security is highly valued, domestic power semiconductor enterprises are catching up, but there is huge room for growth. The long-term investment value in this field mainly depends on the gradual realization of the iterative expectation of technological upgrading. In this context, the long-term improvement of technology upgrading iteration often lags behind the optimistic expectations of the market.

Source author Ke Tuyuan