Suspension of all corporate bonds of Evergrande Real Estate 1 day. What is the reason behind this move?

1. Recently, the problem of Evergrande has become the focus of the national media because of a "Evergrande Jin Fu" wealth management product. However, if we review the recent situation of Evergrande in the last year, or "Evergrande Financial Services" is just a microcosm.

On August 3rd this year, the interim report of Evergrande Group showed that the operating income in the first half of this year was 222.69 billion yuan, down 16.5% year-on-year, and the net profit was 105 billion yuan. Despite the sharp decline in revenue and net profit, it seems that it is not as terrible as the imagined "running production".

2. But Evergrande's debt is staggering. According to financial media statistics, as of the first half of this year, Evergrande's liabilities reached 1.2 trillion, and its cash flow in hand was only160 billion. This debt is equivalent to twice that of Country Garden, which is much higher than that of other real estate giants.

3. Evergrande's problems mainly come from man-made disasters: First, Gai Lou's land acquisition is crazy, and house prices are hot. In recent years, more and more stringent real estate policies have been released one after another, and "housing without speculation" has become the mainstream. On the other hand, Evergrande is still hyping up house prices and taking land everywhere in Gai Lou. When Vanke once shouted the slogan of "live", Evergrande also frantically expanded its real estate territory throughout the country.

According to public data, Evergrande has 13 1 urban renewal projects in Greater Bay Area alone, with a total construction area of over 85 million square meters? The total value of goods is nearly 2 trillion yuan.

In the past two years, Greater Bay Area's housing prices have risen, and Evergrande is also to blame. Guiyang Evergrande Children's World, Shenyang Evergrande Health Valley and other projects not only failed to make blood for Evergrande in the short term, but also seemed to drag down the profitability of Evergrande, further accelerating the rise of surrounding housing prices.

4. Second, expand many unreliable projects such as automobiles and finance, and the debts are getting higher and higher. Besides real estate, Evergrande Real Estate, Evergrande Sports, Evergrande Ice Spring, Evergrande Automobile, Evergrande Culture and Evergrande Finance. It seems to be an area where Evergrande does not reach out. For automobile projects alone, Evergrande lost 7.7 billion yuan last year and 4.8 billion yuan in the first half of this year. Evergrande's accumulated losses exceed 10 billion.

According to the 2020 annual report, Evergrande's accumulated investment has reached 47.4 billion yuan, of which more than 20 billion yuan is used to purchase technology and research and development, and another 20 billion yuan is used to build factories. Recently, it is rumored that Evergrande Automobile is looking for a pick-up man. Evergrande, which has not built a mass production car, has burned tens of billions.

5. Third,150,000 economist Ren Zeping continued to advocate the housing price bubble. According to a document released by Evergrande 20 17, when Ren Zeping, an economist, was employed by Evergrande Group, his annual salary was close to150,000 yuan and his monthly salary reached1250,000 yuan (salary+bonus).

And this economist was recently bombarded by another economist. In the article "Three years ago, Xu Jiayin mistakenly took a dose of medicine called" Ren Zeping ",Liu Shengjun said that Ren Zeping lacked the independent spirit of economists. When he was at Evergrande, Xu Jiayin said what he wanted to say and did what he wanted to do, which made Xu, who was originally bold, go further on the radical road.

Some of Ren Zeping's viewpoints, such as "in the future 10, the housing prices in first-and second-tier cities in China will triple, and those in third-and fourth-tier cities will triple" and "there is at least room for urbanization in China 10-20 percentage points". After leaving Evergrande, Ren Zeping once said that "real estate is the hardest bubble in China".

6. Fourth, 10 invested 20 billion yuan to burn Jinyuan football. Since 20 10 entered the football market, Evergrande has become synonymous with "Jinyuan Football".

20 10 100 million bought Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Football, and another 100 million recruited Zheng Zhi, Sun Xiang, Gao Lin, Muric, Kangka and other star players. In 200210, the team invested 600 million yuan to win the Super League championship, and the team spent 20 16543813.33 million.

It will be close to 2 billion in 2020. According to media statistics, in the past 10 years, Evergrande invested at least 20 billion in the football market. In recent years, Evergrande Football has won the AFC Champions League and the Super League, and the cost is quite high.

We believe that Evergrande will not go bankrupt, but as Evergrande said, "The company has indeed encountered unprecedented difficulties at present", and Evergrande's achievements are certainly worthy of recognition in China, but Evergrande's Jinyuan model is not commendable, and many problems may come from man-made disasters.