Supervise the shooting! Some banks call on customers to repay their mortgage loans in advance.

Under the policy of "housing and not speculating", the real estate financial policy is still tightening. On September 27th, three bankers told the reporter of "2 1 Century Business Herald" that some big banks have been informed that the regulatory authorities have recently asked large commercial banks to reduce their pressure and control the scale of real estate loans such as personal housing mortgage loans. In addition, some banks report that the personal mortgage loan amount is tight, and some banks appeal to customers to repay the mortgage loan in advance in order to use the mortgage loan amount.

A big banker said that there was a requirement at the beginning of supervision that the new housing-related loans this year should not exceed a certain proportion of all new loans, which may be about 30%, but no documents were issued. Another city commercial bank official said that the central bank asked big banks to reduce the balance of real estate loans such as mortgages, but did not see the relevant documents. However, a person from the head office of another big bank said that the scale of credit was discussed within the bank, but there were no new requirements for the loan structure.

According to the reporter's calculation, if the proportion of new real estate loans falls to 30%, the proportion level is roughly equivalent to the level before the introduction of the real estate destocking policy in 20 15. After the real estate destocking policy, the proportion of new real estate loans increased from 30.6% in 20 15 to 44.8% in 20 16, and decreased to 34.0% by the end of 20 19.

"Golden September and Silver 10" still controls the mortgage.

"Golden September and Silver 10" was originally the peak season of the property market, but the credit lines of some banks were tight.

On September 27th, some people from Guangzhou Mortgage Company reported that the personal mortgage loan quotas of Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank and China Merchants Bank are relatively tight, and some LPR benchmark interest rates of 20BP are relatively slow, while LPR 30BP is still lending normally.

Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic this year, the real estate market fell sharply in the first half of this year. After the epidemic, real estate sales quickly picked up. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from June 5438 to August, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 984.86 million square meters, down 3.3% year-on-year. In August, monthly sales increased by 27. 1% year-on-year, and the growth rate reached a new high of nearly two years after last month. Sales in some cities have improved. In August, the sales area of commercial housing in Beijing was 993,000 square meters, up 48.5% from the previous month and 84.2% from the same period last year, setting a new monthly sales area since 20 17.

In the case of booming sales in the property market, some banks appealed to customers to repay their mortgage loans in advance.

On September 27th, a person holding a mortgage in Shenzhen said that he had recently received a short message from the mortgage bank, calling on customers to repay the loan in advance. The bank has a green channel for prepayment of personal loans, so he can enjoy the service of waiting for one month without waiting.

The reason is "reducing the scale of housing-related loans." A person from a big bank in South China said that including personal mortgage loans and real estate development loans, the supervision has requirements for the growth of housing-related loans. If the growth rate of other loans can't keep up with the requirements, housing-related loans need to be expanded. A person from East China City Commercial Bank said that in the regulatory consensus loans since last year, there has been a requirement for the proportion of housing-related loans, and the growth rate should not be too fast.

In the past three years, the proportion of housing-related loans in the banking industry has been declining. Last year, the proportion of new housing-related loans nationwide was about 34%. In the first half of this year, affected by the epidemic, the proportion dropped to around 24.7%.

Earlier, Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that compared with 20 16, the growth rate of real estate loans decreased by 12 percentage points, and the proportion of new real estate loans in all new loans decreased by 10 percentage points.

265438+20th Century Business Herald According to the data in the Statistical Report on Loan Investment of Financial Institutions of the Central Bank, RMB real estate loans increased by 57 1 trillion yuan in 20 19, accounting for 34.0% of the increase in RMB loans in the same period. In the first half of 2020, RMB real estate loans increased by 2.99 trillion yuan, accounting for 24.7% of the increase in RMB loans in the same period. Among them, in the first half of 2020, real estate development loans increased by about 750 billion yuan, and personal housing loans increased by about 2.29 trillion yuan.

The new housing-related loans of several major banks fell below 30%.

According to the statistics of "265438+20th Century Business Herald", in the first half of 2020, the proportion of new real estate loans of the six major state-owned banks all declined. Except for BOC, the proportion of new housing-related loans in other state-owned banks has been adjusted to below 30%.

In the first half of 2020, China Bank added 356310.50 billion yuan of housing-related loans, including real estate loans123.664 billion yuan and personal housing loans, accounting for 36.68% of all new loans. It is the only bank among the six state-owned banks that accounts for more than 30%.

Although the proportion of new housing-related loans is still high, compared with 20 19, the scale of housing-related loans of BOC has declined. At the end of 20 19, China Bank increased its housing-related loans by 61657.9 billion yuan, accounting for 49.35% of all new loans, ranking first among the six state-owned banks. By the end of June 2020, the scale of new housing-related loans of BOC had decreased by 260.264 billion yuan, accounting for 12.66 percentage points to 36.68%.

Construction Bank's new real estate loans accounted for the lowest proportion and the largest decline. In the first half of 2020, China Construction Bank added 379.899 billion yuan of new housing-related loans, accounting for 2.6 18% of all new loans, which was 22.38 percentage points lower than the 602.035 billion yuan of new housing-related loans at the end of 20 19.

Among other big state-owned banks, ICBC added 362.428 billion yuan of housing-related loans, accounting for 29.85% of all new loans, down 16.86 percentage points from the end of 20 19; Agricultural Bank of China added 322.059 billion yuan of housing-related loans, accounting for 27. 1 1% of all new loans, down 14.02 percentage points from the end of 20 19; Bank of Communications increased housing-related loans by11761300 million yuan, accounting for 27.66% of all new loans, down1.42 percentage points from the end of 20 19; Postal Savings Bank increased housing-related loans by156.45 billion yuan, accounting for 30.86% of all new loans, which was 654.38+065.438+0.58 percentage points lower than the end of 2065.438+09.

The new real estate loans of joint-stock banks are obviously differentiated. New real estate loans from China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Industrial Bank and Ping An Bank accounted for more than 30%, of which Shanghai Pudong Development Bank accounted for 49.3 1% and Ping An Bank accounted for more than 50%.

Specifically, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank increased housing-related loans by103.628 billion yuan, including 7765438+69 billion yuan for personal housing loans and 26.459 billion yuan for real estate loans. New housing-related loans accounted for 49.3 1% of all new loans, up 3.92 percentage points from the end of last year.

Ping An Bank has the highest proportion and the largest increase. According to statistics, Ping An Bank added 96.325 billion yuan of housing-related loans, accounting for 52.0 1% of all new loans, up 5.06 percentage points from the end of last year.

Although the proportion of new housing-related loans in China Everbright Bank has also increased, it is still the lowest among joint-stock banks. In the first half of 2020, all new loans of China Everbright Bank were 209.358 billion yuan, including 47.329 billion yuan of new housing-related loans, accounting for 2.26 1%, up 4.63 percentage points from the end of last year.

Strict supervision of real estate finance continues.

At the regulatory level, real estate finance still maintains a "strict supervision" trend. Earlier, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said that it would carry out special inspections on real estate loans in more than 30 key cities, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the central bank also issued the requirements of "three red lines" for financing real estate enterprises.

On September 14, Jeikiy, deputy director of the Banking Inspection Bureau of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said at the news briefing that the policy of "staying in houses without speculation" had been effectively implemented. We will continue to carry out special inspections of real estate loans in more than 30 key cities, reduce excessive credit to housing enterprises with excessive leverage and excessive financial burden, increase the investigation and punishment of "down payment loans" and consumer loan funds flowing into the housing market, and guide bank funds to focus on supporting affordable livelihood projects such as shantytown renovation and residents' reasonable home purchase needs. The balance of loans for affordable housing projects has increased steadily, and the tendency of real estate financial bubble has been effectively curbed, helping the real estate people's livelihood to gradually return.

On July 24th, the State Council held a symposium on real estate work in Shenzhen, and put forward for the first time that real estate credit should be "stable in stock and strictly controlled in increment", and a "prudent management system of real estate finance" should be established, so that the monitoring of "real estate finance" rose to the institutional level.

On August 20th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China jointly held a forum for real estate enterprises, which formed the detailed rules for fund monitoring and financing management of key real estate enterprises, namely, the so-called "three red lines" in the industry, that is, after excluding the advance payment, the asset-liability ratio is greater than 70%, the net debt ratio is greater than 100%, the short-term cash debt ratio is less than 1 times, and the proportion of land acquisition and sales is not allowed except for the three red lines. Need to explain the source of land acquisition funds.

How to adjust the bank credit policy

Sort out the semi-annual report of the bank in 2020 and adjust the real estate finance. Details are as follows:

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China: Continue to strengthen the classified management of the real estate industry, further strengthen the classified management of cities in the commercial real estate field, focus on supporting ordinary commodity housing projects that meet the regulatory policies, and actively and steadily promote the financing of commercial rental housing; Strengthen the policy compliance management in the field of affordable housing, strictly control the financing of commercial housing development and commercial shantytown renovation, and carefully grasp the financing of real estate mergers and acquisitions.

China Construction Bank: Actively implement the requirements of national real estate regulation and control policies, strictly implement differentiated housing credit policies, optimize loan areas, cooperative enterprises, cooperative buildings and customers through big data analysis and risk early warning models, and support residents' reasonable housing needs. Further promote the housing leasing strategy.

One of the three strategies is the housing leasing strategy: deepen the application of the comprehensive service platform for housing leasing, enhance the activity of the platform, and provide better services for government supervision, public rental housing management and housing market transactions. By the end of June, the housing rental comprehensive service platform had accumulated more than 23 million houses with 2,365,438+10,000 registered users. Signed strategic cooperation agreements with Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Jinan and other 1 1 pilot cities to provide pilot cities with a package of comprehensive services including financial product support, housing financing operation and information system support. Take Jianxin housing as the carrier, actively carry out housing purchasing and storage business, revitalize the stock of idle housing in society, and increase the supply of social rental housing. Innovate financial services, support the large-scale and professional development of leasing enterprises, protect the rights and interests of landlords and tenants, and maintain the smooth operation of the leasing market. Actively participate in the first batch of domestic housing leasing companies' equity trading service pilots, and explore new modes for housing leasing companies to obtain equity financing.

Bank of China: Strictly implement the national real estate industry regulation and control policies, implement differentiated individual housing loan policies, and focus on supporting residents' first home purchase demand.

Agricultural Bank of China: Actively implement the national real estate regulation and control policies, support residents' reasonable demand for home ownership, and realize the steady development of individual housing loan business. By the end of June, the balance of individual housing loans was 442 1, 73 1 billion yuan, an increase of 259.3 billion yuan over the end of last year.

China Merchants Bank: According to the overall strategy of "stabilizing investment, adjusting structure and managing quota", dynamically optimize the internal credit policy. By the end of the reporting period, the balance of the company's domestic enterprise real estate wide-caliber risk business was RMB 5,826,543.8+0.40 billion (including real or contingent credit, bond investment, self-operated and non-standard wealth management investment, etc.). ), an increase of 73.809 billion yuan compared with the end of last year, of which the balance of domestic corporate loans was 325.620 billion yuan, an increase of 465.438+35.7 billion yuan compared with the end of last year, accounting for the proportion of corporate loans. By the end of the reporting period, the asset quality of domestic companies in the real estate sector was good, and the non-performing loan ratio was 0.2 1%, which was 0. 15 percentage points lower than the end of the previous year. In the first half of 2020, the regulatory policies in the real estate sector continued to tighten. Due to the epidemic, the cash flow pressure of some small and medium-sized real estate enterprises has increased. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the company will continue to adjust the structure of real estate customers and regional assets, focus on central cities and strategic customers, and continue to maintain the stability of asset quality in the real estate sector.

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Great changes in the real estate industry! The three giants of housing enterprises step on "three red lines" at the same time!

The game rules of the real estate industry have ushered in major changes, and Evergrande, Sunac and Greenland have stepped on "three red lines". ...

Shares and debts suffered a double blow, and Evergrande released operational data to fight back.

On Friday, Evergrande's shares and bonds suffered another double blow. China Evergrande's share price closed down by 9.46%, Evergrande Motor closed down by 12.76%, and several bonds fell by more than 20%, indicating that market confidence is still insufficient.

Last Friday night, Evergrande issued a number of announcements in succession, exposing its operating transcripts and making a strong response to the rumors. The announcement shows:

1. As of September 24, 2020, the cumulative sales reached 504.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of11.4%; The sales rebate was 452,654.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5 1.3%. As of June 30, 2020, the cash balance was RMB 204.6 billion.

2. Since September 3, 2020, the company has launched national real estate concessions, and plans to realize cumulative sales of 200 billion yuan in September and June 2020 at 5438+ 10.

3. There are 866 projects under construction in China, all of which are under normal construction.

4. As of September 24, 2020, the company's interest-bearing liabilities decreased by about 53.4 billion yuan compared with the end of March 2020, and the financing cost decreased by 2.24 percentage points. The loans due after September 25, 2020 have been repaid in advance, and the debt reduction effect is positive and remarkable.

5. Since the company was founded 24 years ago, it has borrowed 20,523 loans, and there has never been any overdue payment of interest or overdue repayment of principal.

In the evening, China Evergrande also announced that the listing of the spin-off property management business was approved by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and the announcement of Evergrande Automobile disclosed more details of the proposed listing in science and technology innovation board.

Evergrande, Sunac and Greenland step on "three red lines" at the same time

China Evergrande's stable operating data reassured investors. However, from the financial indicators, the leverage ratio of Evergrande is still at a high level, exceeding the overall level of head housing enterprises, and stepping on "three red lines".

On August 20th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China jointly held a symposium on key housing enterprises in Beijing, which clarified the detailed rules for the fund monitoring and financing management of 12 key housing enterprises, that is, the "three red lines" of housing enterprise financing rumored in the industry before. The new regulations will be issued on 202 1 1 1.

The "three red lines" mainly involve three indicators, including the asset-liability ratio after excluding advance payment is greater than 70%, the net debt ratio is greater than 100%, and the short-term cash debt ratio is less than 1 times. These three indicators are also the core indicators for analyzing the operation of real estate enterprises at present, and also become the important content for monitoring the operation of real estate enterprises.

According to the regulations, if all three red lines are touched, the interest-bearing liabilities of real estate enterprises can no longer be increased; Second, the annual growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities shall not exceed 5%; Touch a, the growth rate shall not exceed10%; Don't touch, shall not exceed 15%.

Yu Liang, chairman of Vanke's board of directors, said yesterday that the "three red lines" are a major change in the rules of the game in the industry. This time, the supervision of the "three red lines" is penetrating, and the stock is fully covered. The previous financial skills are useless and it is a challenge to all developers. The influence of the three red lines is no less than that of the land auction and auction system in 20 12 years.

According to the data of the semi-annual report, Securities Times DataBao made statistics on the financial indicators of listed real estate enterprises in the Mainland (A shares and Hong Kong stocks) with the top contracted sales amount of 15 in the first half of 2020. The leverage level and debt risk of head housing enterprises show great differences.

1 and the asset-liability ratio of nine head real estate enterprises after excluding advance receipts crossed the red line.

/kloc-among the top 0/5 housing enterprises, the asset-liability ratio of 9 companies excluding advance receipts (advance receipts+contract sales subjects, the same below) exceeds 70%. China Evergrande has the highest leverage ratio, reaching 85.28%, while Greenland Holdings, Sunac China and Country Garden all have leverage ratios above 80%.

2. The net debt ratio of head housing enterprises is highly differentiated.

The net debt ratio of real estate enterprises is measured by the ratio of (interest-bearing debt-monetary funds)/owner's equity. According to statistics, the net debt ratio of China Evergrande, Sunac China and Greenland Holdings in TOP 15 housing enterprises greatly exceeds the red line of 100%. The net debt ratio of the remaining 12 housing enterprises is mostly kept below 70%, and the risks are relatively controllable. The net debt ratio of Vanke A, China Overseas Development (China Overseas Real Estate), China Merchants Shekou and Xincheng Holdings is less than 40%.

From the historical trend, the net debt ratios of China Evergrande, Sunac China and Greenland Holdings have been running above 100% for a long time, reaching the peak at around 20 17, and then declining. The net debt ratio of China Evergrande rose again after 20 18, and rose for several consecutive periods.

3. The short-term risks of the debts of the five head housing enterprises are relatively high.

Take monetary funds/short-term interest-bearing liabilities as the cash short-term debt ratio index to measure the short-term debt risk of housing enterprises. According to data treasure statistics, among the top 15 housing enterprises, the short-term cash debt ratio of China Evergrande, Sunac China, Greenland Holdings and China Jinmao is lower than 1 times, crossing the red line. China Overseas Development and Longhu Real Estate have the highest short-term cash debt ratios, which are 5.25 times and 4.55 times respectively.

4. Evergrande, Sunac and Greenland step on "three red lines" at the same time.

Based on the three criteria, among the top 15 housing enterprises, China Evergrande, Sunac Real Estate and Greenland Holdings stepped on three red lines at the same time. According to the regulations, interest-bearing liabilities cannot be increased in the future; China Jinmao touches two red lines; Poly Real Estate, China Overseas Development, Longhu Real Estate, China Resources Land and Gemdale all missed three red lines.

What is the impact of limiting the scale of debt expansion on head housing enterprises?

According to the regulations, the situation of housing enterprises stepping on the "three red lines" directly affects the expansion scale of their interest-bearing debts. If all three red lines are touched, the interest-bearing liabilities of real estate enterprises can no longer be increased; Second, the annual growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities shall not exceed 5%; Touch a, the growth rate shall not exceed10%; Don't touch, shall not exceed 15%.

Then, what was the rate of interest-bearing debt expansion of head housing enterprises in the past?

According to data treasure statistics, among the top 15 real estate enterprises, the compound annual growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities of nine companies from 20 17 to 20 19 is over 30%, far exceeding the new regulations. Sunac China and Xincheng Holdings have the fastest growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities, exceeding 40%. Only three head housing enterprises, namely China Evergrande, China Overseas Development and Greenland Holdings, have a compound growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities of less than 15% in recent three years.

With the acceleration of debt expansion in recent years, the restriction of "three red lines" on debt expansion will have a great impact on debt financing of most housing enterprises.

According to the data of the mid-year report in 2020, the expansion rate of interest-bearing liabilities of TOP 15 housing enterprises has slowed down, and only the interest-bearing liabilities of Vanke A, Longhu Real Estate, Gemdale and Greentown China have increased by more than 20% year-on-year.