Director of R&F Property Store

In the recently hit TV series Anjia, the heroine Fang is the manager of a real estate agency, and she claims that "there is no house I can't sell". In reality, real estate agents and real estate salesmen under the epidemic are worried about "how to sell my house?"

On February 19, employees of a real estate agency in Fengtai District, Beijing worked at the front desk of the store.

Affected by the epidemic, the property market "golden three silver four" is difficult to reproduce.

The changes in the sales price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities show that the number of cities with rising house prices in 65438+ 10 is 47, 50 fewer than last month.

In addition to the decrease in the number of cities with rising prices, "in June 5438+ 10, the price index of new commercial housing in 70 cities nationwide rose by 6.5% and 0.3% respectively, and the increase was narrowed."

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said, "The Spring Festival in 2020 is earlier, and the data of house price index in 65438+ 10 is relatively less affected by the COVID-19 epidemic."

"The market gradually reflected the impact of the epidemic in February-March." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said.

The reporter noted that in order to cope with the impact of the epidemic, in February, housing enterprises went online one after another, and many housing enterprises such as Evergrande, Sunac and R&F started online marketing mode. Evergrande attracts buyers with a large discount of "7.5 fold".

However, according to Ke Rui data, in February, the full-caliber sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises were 324.33 billion yuan, down 43.8% from the previous month and 37.9% from the same period last year, and the sales performance was the lowest in a single month in recent years. According to the data of the Central Hospital, the transaction volume of new houses in key monitoring cities 1 July decreased by 6 1.2% from the previous month and increased by 27 percentage points from the previous month1month.

Xia Dan, a senior researcher at the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications, said that at present, the impact of the epidemic on the property market will last at least until the end of the first quarter, and the traditional "Golden Three Silver Four" peak season in the property market may be difficult to appear.

More than 60 cities have stabilized the property market and eased the financial pressure on housing enterprises.

In response to the impact of the epidemic, many new regulations on the property market have been introduced one after another. Zhang Dawei said that according to incomplete statistics, in February, more than 60 cities introduced different degrees of real estate control policies, mainly to alleviate the financial pressure of enterprises.

Discover Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Hefei, Nanning, Lanzhou, Guiyang, Zhengzhou and other cities. Involving the reduction or exemption of property rent, holdover of social security fees, reduction or holdover of tax. Shenzhen, Wuhu, Huizhou, Dalian, Hohhot, Wuhan, Harbin, Xi, Nanning and other cities have also introduced policies such as delaying the payment of provident fund and reducing the proportion of provident fund contributions.

In addition, more than ten cities such as Jinan, Xi, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Tianjin, Wuxi, Nanchang and Nanjing have introduced new land policies to deal with the epidemic, and some cities have made it clear that land transfer fees can be postponed or paid in installments. Huangshan, Suzhou and other places even revised the land demand policy for existing homes and moderately relaxed the pre-sale conditions of real estate.

"Delaying the payment of land transfer fees by enterprises and accelerating the pre-sale of enterprises and other real estate policies will alleviate the financial pressure of real estate enterprises to some extent." Zhang Dawei said.

"Delayed repayment of mortgage loans, changes in pre-sale conditions and partial tax relief are all immediate pain points for real estate enterprises and construction units," said Jaco, president of the branch of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute. In particular, delayed repayment and adjustment of pre-sale terms are directly conducive to alleviating the short-term financial pressure of enterprises.

Some cities have housing subsidies, and some cities have been interviewed for down payment.

Compared with most cities, stabilizing the property market is mainly to alleviate the financial pressure of housing enterprises, and other cities have also increased their stimulus policies on the consumer demand side. Third-and fourth-tier cities such as Hengyang, Haimen, Qinzhou and Zhumadian give subsidies for deed tax relief.

On February 2 1 7, Zhumadian issued the policy of 17 to stabilize the property market, which not only subsidized the purchase of houses, but also increased the loan amount of housing provident fund from 450,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan, and even reduced the minimum down payment ratio of provident fund to purchase the first suite from 30% to 20%, making it the first city in China to reduce the down payment in 2020.

After Zhumadian, Nanning, Dongguan and Fuzhou adjusted the conditions for the use of provident fund and increased the amount of provident fund loans. For example, Fuzhou provides housing subsidies to buyers 150 yuan/m2, and the loan limit of housing provident fund is raised to 600,000.

"The adjustment of the down payment ratio policy is a powerful' warm property market' policy, which can well stimulate the demand for home purchase." Yan Yuejin said. However, on February 28th, the relevant responsible comrades of Zhumadian Government were interviewed by Henan Provincial Party Committee and Provincial Government, which seemed to make the whole market "suddenly warm and cold".

On February 19, citizens passed a sales center on Fanyang Road, Fengtai District, Beijing. Affected by the epidemic situation in COVID-19, the number of people looking at houses on the spot has decreased, and various housing enterprises have started the online VR housing selection mode, and some properties have started the promotion mode.

The mortgage policy remains unchanged, and house prices may fall?

"At present, the most critical and core policy is the mortgage policy, especially the down payment for the first suite and the identification standard for the second suite. So far, there has been no policy change in the down payment for commercial loans to purchase houses nationwide. " Zhang Dawei said that if the mortgage policy remains unchanged, house prices may fall.

"Recently, there are property market relaxation policies of different scales in various places, but Zhumadian was interviewed, which fully reflected the red line and constraints in policy relaxation, that is, the positioning of' housing and not speculating' still needs to be implemented." Yan Yuejin predicted that it would be relatively cautious to introduce obvious relaxation policies in subsequent places.

On February 19, the central bank stressed in its latest monetary policy implementation report that real estate should not be used as a short-term means to stimulate the economy.

On March 3rd, different from other places, Guangzhou released policies concerning the property market that day, and chose to cancel the purchase restriction policies for commercial and service projects (apartments, shops and office buildings). "For commercial and service projects that have not completed the planning and construction procedures, the minimum division unit is no longer defined; Commercial service projects no longer restrict sales targets, and those that have registered their rights no longer restrict transfer targets. "

"At present, the policy changes of commercial service projects have little impact on the overall market. The market mainly depends on policies such as the loan ratio of this part of the house. " Zhang Dawei believes that the New Deal for commercial service projects in Guangzhou is conducive to solving the stock of commercial housing projects and is a policy pilot.

"Weak short-term demand and active promotion by housing enterprises may lead to downward pressure on housing prices." Cao Jingjing, deputy research director of the R&D Center of China Index Academy, said: "However, the housing prices in some key cities have been adjusted for some time. Under the policy of' stabilizing housing prices', there is limited room for housing prices to continue to fall sharply. "

Zhang Dawei believes that "policy easing in the real estate industry is a trend. Under the premise of' housing and not speculating', there will be more policies to promote the improvement of home ownership. "