Discuss the future of Shanghai real estate.

After the skyrocketing housing prices in Shanghai in 2003, it seems that the relevant government departments can no longer hold their breath and begin to strengthen the supervision of the property market. Recently, the "Measures for Online Registration of Commercial Housing Sales Contracts in Shanghai" has just been issued. After a period of calm, the policy of restricting the conversion of faster houses is now in trouble. Obviously, the real estate market will be more transparent, and the regulatory policies will make speculation.

The space is getting smaller and smaller Therefore, many investors are confused about the current real estate market and are hesitant between buying a house and not buying a house. The apartment has shown the taste of "chicken ribs"; As an "alternative" in the property market, villas have appeared frequently and become the object of much concern. So, what is the prospect of villa market? Is it appropriate to invest in villas now? Where is the hot spot of villa investment?

Villa investment prospects are optimistic.

According to incomplete statistics, the return on real estate investment in Shanghai last year was about 7%, while the average return on investment in villas was higher than 9.5%, and the high-end villas were as high as 13.4%. Since 1998, the average price of villas in Shanghai has increased by 8%- 12% every year. Last year, the villa market was once hot, keeping pace with the popularity of apartments. Now, the apartment seems to be shackled and handcuffed, and the house price is slowly rising. In recent months, even high-end apartments have fallen slightly. The rise of the stock market and the formulation of policies have become a hurdle for the property market, especially apartment property. Moreover, due to the sharp rise in apartment prices for several years in a row, the total price of a high-grade apartment and an economical villa is getting closer and closer. Villa is always full of temptations, the dream of private gardens, open lawns, small bridges and flowing water ... this is just suitable for the living environment pursued by modern people.

Mr. Shi Jiemin, director of the third project department of Shanghai Juren Property Consulting Co., Ltd. said: "The price of villas has risen very sharply. The villa, which cost 6-7 million yuan two years ago, has now risen to 6.5438+0.2 million-6.5438+0.5 million yuan. In addition to strong demand, another important reason is the sharp appreciation of land prices and the relatively large area of villas. " Judging from the group buying villas, the dominant position of "three foreign" has changed. According to relevant data, in 2002, "three foreign" customers accounted for 63%, and Shanghai customers only accounted for 37%; Last year, the situation was completely reversed, with Shanghai customers accounting for 66% and "three foreign" customers accounting for only 34%. On the premise that the total sales volume of villas in Shanghai continued to increase last year, the change of this data shows that the villa market in Shanghai no longer relies mainly on foreign purchasing power, and the local consumption capacity in Shanghai has greatly increased, becoming the core purchasing power of the villa market, and the market prospect is relatively optimistic.

Where is the hot spot of villa investment?

In Shanghai, the latest wave of villa market started in 2000, and it started later than the apartment market at 1999. Moreover, judging from the upward trend in recent years, the increase of villas is not as big as that of apartments. Therefore, theoretically speaking, the villa market will continue the upward trend of the past few years this year and next. However, some insiders said that the villa market has entered an "interpretation era" this year. Investment villas need to be selected, identified and analyzed. To choose investment hotspots, the era of "buy and go up" has passed. Mr. Shi Jiemin believes that the apartment has risen to a relatively high level, and now is a good time to buy a villa. On the regional or plate, the Sheshan plate with infinite scenery last year is still a hot spot worthy of attention this year; Zhao Xiang, located near Sheshan, is also a plate with great appreciation potential, covering an area of 8,000 mu, only 5 minutes' drive from Sheshan, and only 15-20 minutes' drive from Huqingping Highway to downtown. You can not only enjoy the natural environment and supporting facilities of Sheshan, but also enjoy convenient transportation and great appreciation potential.

In addition, Mr. Wang, a typical resident, believes that Pudong is the first choice for foreigners to settle down and immigrate to Shanghai, and has full potential to develop high-grade villas with large rooms and gardens, especially in the area of Century Park. At present, the rental and sale of villas in Jinqiao, Zhangjiang and Century Park are very good, and there is still a lot of room for development in price. Another promising place is along the Huqingping Highway, especially the Oriental Land, Grand View Garden, Zhujiajiao and Dianshan Lake. Not only is the transportation convenient, but also the water area is large, which is unique in Shanghai and has very strong tourism, leisure and holiday functions. At present, the unit price of villas in this area is only 65438+100000 yuan/square meter, and it has full potential to rise to about 25000 yuan/square meter in two years. In addition, Songjiang New Town, Xinqiao and Nanhui Villa near the outer ring also have great development potential.

Investing in villas in the way of "interpretation"

The so-called "interpretation" is to identify, analyze and compare and master the basic skills of villa investment. Mr. Shi Jiemin believes that villa investment should pay attention to the following aspects: First, it depends on whether the whole large area or plate has investment value. Whether there are traffic arteries, whether it is far from the city center, whether the municipal facilities are perfect, and whether there are good real estate projects to promote popularity are all factors that need to be considered. Secondly, it depends on the product quality of the villa. What kind of building materials and equipment are used in the villa? What materials are used for walls, tiles and especially windows? If the material is not good, there may be problems such as water seepage and insufficient heat insulation. Thirdly, it is necessary to determine the size of the courtyard and the degree of environmental greening such as trees and grass. Finally, it depends on whether there is a good property management company. A good property can enhance the potential value of the villa and the rental return rate.

"Choosing a villa is to choose a way of life. The real value of villas lies in the environment, such as the villa with the theme of golf in Sheshan, the villa with natural resources in Dianshan Lake, and the villa with ecological greening in Century Park ... The environment plays a decisive role in villas. Whether a villa has investment value can be investigated through the' three-dimensional environment'. Once, space was the macro environment, that is, the area, plate, transportation, supporting and other macro aspects of the villa; The second space is the living environment, and the villa represents a way of life. The humanistic environment and spiritual outlook of residential areas directly affect the value of real estate. Three-dimensional space is the home environment, that is, the internal environment of the villa. Three-dimensional space environment can be summarized in sixteen words: comfort, enjoyment, privacy, safety, individuality, characteristics, elegance and exquisiteness. The ultimate goal of all these evaluations is to look at the comprehensive cost performance. The higher the cost performance, the higher the investment value. " Mr. Wang said to him. With the end of the general rise of Shanghai real estate market, the ability to choose "individual stocks" has become more and more important.