What is the market rent of commercial real estate (office building) in China in 2020?

According to the survey data of retail rent samples of major commercial streets and typical shopping centers in key cities in China by the Retail Rent Index of China Real Estate Index System, in the first half of 2020, the retail rent level of major commercial streets and key business districts (shopping centers) in China declined as a whole.

Under the influence of COVID-19 epidemic, residents' production and life are limited, consumption activities are reduced, and the commercial real estate market is facing challenges; On the other hand, the epidemic has accelerated the change of consumption habits in the Internet era, and a new pattern of commercial real estate industry will gradually take shape. Under this background, on the basis of analyzing and summarizing the research experience over the years and the development status of the commercial real estate industry, this paper studies and compiles the commercial real estate index of China real estate index system, which mainly covers the retail rent index and the office rent index, so as to objectively reflect the commercial real estate price level and its changing trend in key cities.

According to the survey data of the office rent index of China Real Estate Index System on the office rent samples of major business districts in key cities in China, in the first half of 2020, the office rent level of major business districts in key cities in China decreased by 2.38% as a whole. The average rent in the second quarter was 4.8 yuan/m2/day, which was 1.54% lower than that in the first quarter. From the perspective of business circle, office rent increased by 65,438+00.0% in the second quarter, decreased by 87.5%, and remained unchanged at 2.5% from the previous period. On the whole, in the second quarter of 2020, the domestic economy gradually recovered, but the huge impact of the current overseas epidemic on the world economy continued to develop and evolve, and the external risk challenges increased significantly. Under the background of increasing pressure of domestic economic recovery and increasing uncertainty of the world economy, China's stable economic operation still faces many challenges, and the main indicators such as consumption and investment are lower than the same period last year; Affected by the fact that the domestic macro-economy is still in the downward range, the demand for office buildings in major business districts of key cities across the country declined this quarter, and rents continued to fall month on month. From the perspective of cities, office rents in first-and second-tier cities all fell from the previous month.

1, office rent change

From the perspective of cities, office rents in first-and second-tier cities have declined.

From the perspective of cities, in the second quarter of 2020, in first-tier cities, 13.9% of office rents in business districts increased month on month, while 86. 1% of office rents in business districts decreased month on month. Specifically, among the 36 major business districts in first-tier cities, office rents in five business districts, including Beijing Lizeqiao and Beijing Science and Technology Park, increased month on month; Office rents in 365 and 438+0 business districts such as Shenzhen Longgang Central City and Shenzhen Nanshan Central District decreased month on month.

In the second quarter of 2020, among the second-tier cities, 6.8% of office rents in business districts increased month-on-month, 88.6% of office rents in business districts decreased month-on-month, and 4.5% of office rents in business districts remained unchanged from the previous period. 1 1 In the 44 major business circles of the city, office rents in Hangzhou, Nanjing and Changsha are mixed. Office rents in major business districts of other cities all fell or remained flat.

2. Business districts with large rent increase or decrease.

In the second quarter of 2020, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the office market continued to show. In the major business districts of 15 key cities monitored by the office rent index of China's real estate index system, nearly 90% of office rents in the business districts fell month-on-month; Among them, wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, transportation, culture, sports and entertainment industries have been greatly affected, and the office rents in business districts where enterprises in these industries are concentrated have dropped a lot from the previous month. Among the business districts where office rents fell month-on-month, Shenzhen Longgang Central City experienced the largest month-on-month decline of 3.96%, and rents fell to 3.7 yuan/square meter day; Office rents in Shenzhen Nanshan Central District and Beijing Shangdi 13 business districts also fell by more than 3.0% month-on-month. The rents of 47 business districts such as Guangzhou Sports Center and Shanghai Wujiaochang decreased1.0%-3.0%; Office rents in nine business districts, such as Huaihai Middle Road in Shanghai and Chunxi Road in Chengdu, decreased by less than 1.0% month-on-month.

Despite the limited commercial activities during the epidemic, Internet-related service industries, medical care and big data industries continued to rise. Based on the expansion demand, the demand for office buildings in emerging business districts with better hardware facilities, perfect property management and low rent has increased. At the same time, TMT, financial industry and other industries are still the main demand of the office market, and some enterprises have expansion needs; Therefore, the rents of office buildings in business districts where enterprises in these industries are concentrated are relatively stable. Among the key cities 15 main business districts monitored by the China Real Estate Index System, the office rents of eight business districts, including Beijing Lizeqiao and Beijing Science Park, rose month on month, with the increase rates all within 1.0%.

3. Research on the trend of leasing operation.

Judging from the market performance, with the solid progress of resumption of work and production, the national economic operation showed a recovery and improvement trend in the second quarter. However, during the period of 20201-May, the main indicators such as investment, consumption, import and export still showed a downward trend year-on-year, the economic operation has not yet recovered to the pre-epidemic level, and the stable recovery of some industries is also facing new challenges. The demand for office rental in key cities is weak and the vacancy rate is high. Comprehensive factors led to the continued decline in office rents in the second quarter. In terms of industries, the office demand related to the Internet and medical care continues to grow against the trend, while the office demand of TMT industry and financial industry remains stable, which has a certain positive impact on the office rental market.

On the supply side, in terms of new construction, from June to May 2020, the new construction area of office buildings in 15 key cities was 9130,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24.6%. Among them, the newly started area of office buildings in first-tier cities increased by 6.7% year-on-year; Second-tier cities decreased by 39.5% year on year. In terms of land supply, from June to June, 2020, the planned construction area of 15 key cities' business land transactions was 25.095 million square meters, up 14 1% year-on-year. Among them, the planned construction area of business land transactions in first-tier cities increased by100.3% year-on-year; Second-tier cities grew by 2.3% year on year. In the short term, the area of newly started office buildings in national 15 key cities decreased year-on-year. In the long run, the supply of commercial land in key cities will continue to grow steadily.

On the demand side, in the second quarter of 2020, China's national economy as a whole is in the process of recovery. From June 5438 to May 2020, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, and the service industry production index decreased by 7.7% year-on-year. In terms of major industries, in May, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, real estate and financial industry increased by 12.9%, 7.65, 438+0% and 5.2% respectively, with the growth rates increased by 7.7, 6.0 and 0.8 percentage points respectively compared with April. Wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering decreased by 2. 1% and 2 1.7% respectively, which were 4.5 and 12.0 percentage points lower than that in April. On the whole, TMT industry and financial industry are still the main demand in the office market this quarter.

Looking forward to the future, from the macro environment, in the second quarter of 2020, relevant policies to promote the resumption of work and production and support the prevention and control of the epidemic will be implemented in an orderly manner, and the economy will continue to show an upward trend. In terms of taxation, the state has successively introduced a number of preferential tax and fee policies to reduce the tax burden and cost pressure of enterprises and society. On May 15, the Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China jointly issued the Announcement on the Implementation Period of Tax and Fee Policies to Support Epidemic Prevention and Control and Supply Guarantee. Support epidemic prevention and control, enterprises to get rid of difficulties and return to work; On May 19, State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China issued the Announcement on Matters Related to Deferred Payment of Income Tax in 2020 by Small-scale Low-profit Enterprises and Individual Industrial and Commercial Households, so as to alleviate the financial pressure on production and operation of small-scale low-profit enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. In terms of credit support and financial services, the policy continues to provide credit support to small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. On May 25th, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice on Further Standardizing the Charge of Credit Financing to Reduce the Comprehensive Cost of Enterprise Financing, proposing 20 measures to further standardize the charge management of all aspects of credit financing, reduce the comprehensive cost of enterprise financing, and better serve the high-quality development of the real economy. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the CBRC has continuously optimized financial services in the field of epidemic prevention and control. As of May 17, 2020, the credit support provided by banking institutions for epidemic prevention and control and helping to resume work and production has exceeded 3 1 1 trillion yuan.

In the short term, it will take time for China's economy to fully recover under the influence of the epidemic. From June 5438 to May 2020, the three major demands of consumption, investment and export still declined year-on-year; With the impact of the epidemic on the market gradually emerging, office rents will remain under pressure in the short term. However, in the long run, although China's current economic operation has not yet returned to the pre-epidemic level, under the background of major strategic achievements in epidemic prevention and control, with the solid promotion of resumption of work and production and the gradual improvement of production demand, the new kinetic energy of China's economic development and transformation and upgrading will continue to grow and develop, promoting the comprehensive return of the economy to normal and supporting the stable development of the office market.