Exploring the rental market in Shenzhen: a difficult recovery from the "freezing point"

Securities Times reporter Roman Wojking Wu

Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, Shenzhen's office buildings, shops and housing rental markets all fell to freezing point this year. The Securities Times reporter recently visited a number of office buildings in the central area of Shenzhen and found that the vacancy rate of office buildings was high and the rent was reduced by as much as 50%. It is common for shops in Dafen Oil Painting Village in Longgang District and Nanyou Clothing Market in Nanshan District to withdraw rent and sublet. When investigating the factories in Shiyan, Baoan District, Shenzhen, the reporter found that many small and medium-sized factories have moved to cities around Shenzhen such as Foshan, Dongguan and Huizhou.

"Shenzhen's factory rent and labor costs are too high. The rent has risen from 8 yuan/square meter in 2008 to 40 yuan/square meter now, but the price increase of products is far less than the rent and labor costs, so the factory was moved to Huizhou. " The owner of a furniture manufacturer told the Securities Times reporter.

However, Shiyan's factory relocation may also be related to Shenzhen's industrial upgrading, that is, eliminating low-end factories in the industrial chain and gradually building high-tech industrial parks. Several senior office sales managers also told reporters that a large supply of office buildings can reduce the rental cost of enterprises, and a large number of high-quality and rent-favorable office space can effectively avoid the outflow of enterprises and encourage more enterprises to do large-scale work.

The vacancy rate of office buildings is high.

Since the beginning of this year, the Shenzhen office market has suffered a cold winter. According to the latest research report of dtz, the average rent of Grade A office buildings in Shenzhen in the first quarter decreased by 3% compared with the end of last year, and the vacancy rate reached 24.6%.

Recently, the Securities Times reporter visited Futian, Nanshan and Luohu districts in Shenzhen to investigate the rental situation of CBD office buildings. At the Phoenix Building in Futian CBD, Mr. Yang, a shell agent, said: "At present, the vacancy rate of Phoenix Building is around 10%, and there are basically several vacant rooms on each floor. In the past, the rent in 220 yuan was about one square meter, but now it can be as low as 120 yuan/square meter. This has never happened before, and the rent has dropped by 45%. Now there is room for price reduction to talk to the owners. "

The vacancy rate of Grade A office buildings, Huang Ting Plaza, Zhuo Yue Century and Ping An Financial Center in Futian Central District hovers around 30%. Mr. Wang, a chain real estate agent, told reporters: "It is more cost-effective to rent a house now. Century Center has a whole floor for rent, and the owner quoted 180 yuan/square meter, but before the Spring Festival, the price of Century Excellence office building was above 320 yuan/square meter. You can talk on the basis of 180 yuan/m2 if you like. If the lease period is more than 3 years, there is more room for discussion. "

Chen Chen, who works in Nanshan Science Park, is also helping his friends find an office recently. Because the company is biased towards the Internet industry, Nanshan Science Park has become its first choice. "Now many office buildings have corresponding discounts for quarterly payment and semi-annual payment, and rent-free period can also be discussed. Some second landlords don't even make money to rent. If the price is not suitable, there are also properties as low as 70 yuan per square meter. " An intermediary in the area told reporters.

Another reason for the increase in office vacancy rate is the new supply. After several quarters of weak demand, in the first quarter of this year, there were still three Grade A office buildings in Shenzhen, bringing 300,000 square meters of new supply, and the city's stock rose to 5.824 million square meters.

Dtz research report pointed out that the pressure of office rent and high vacancy rate may run through the market during the year. Business and business activities still need to be resumed, and the impact of the epidemic on the rental market will begin to appear in the second quarter. In the context of slowing demand, the rent of Grade A office buildings in Shenzhen will face greater pressure during the year, and the vacancy rate is likely to rise again.

In the Sungang area of Luohu, some office buildings transformed from old warehouses and wholesale markets are increasingly favored by small and medium-sized enterprises. The reporter found that more and more old warehouses and wholesale markets in Sungang area were transformed into office buildings, and the occupancy rate of enterprises remained relatively stable. Some company staff told reporters that the price of similar office buildings is higher than that of general Grade A office buildings, and the requirements for settled enterprises are not so high, which is more suitable for small and medium-sized enterprises.

There are often advertisements for rental shops.

Under the epidemic situation, the survival difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises have become the knowledge in the industry. Miss Qin, who is engaged in clothing wholesale business, lamented that business became more and more difficult after the Spring Festival. "Although the domestic epidemic situation has improved, the popularity of Nanyou's clothing market has not even recovered to one tenth of its usual level. Originally, I was a wholesaler, but now I'm starting to do retail and live broadcast of goods, hoping to survive the impact of this epidemic. Last month, after discussing with another partner, I decided to reduce the existing storefront area by half and sublet the other half. The owners also agreed, because once they lose customers, it may be difficult for them to rent again. "

Nanyou Clothing Market, where Miss Qin is located, is the largest clothing wholesale place in Shenzhen. This time, it was seriously affected by the epidemic, and advertisements for the transfer and rental of Wangpu stores can be seen everywhere. There is still a long way to go before the industry recovers.

Dafen Oil Painting Village, one of the top ten characteristic cultural blocks in Shenzhen, is also experiencing the pain of shops withdrawing rent. The reporter's field visit found that many art shops have been deserted, and the location of Wangpu near the entrance of the parking lot is also being transferred. It is worth mentioning that almost 70% of the orders of many shops in Dafen Oil Painting Village come from abroad, and the export volume once accounted for half of the global oil painting trade.

"Oil painting is not a necessity like rice, oil and salt, and it is greatly affected by the economy, so even if the epidemic situation improves, the market will not recover soon." Wei Wei, the original painter, told the reporter, "Every day, there are shops that transfer and rent back, and it's really unbearable. Before subletting the store here, the transfer fee was several hundred thousand. Now even the transfer fee is not needed, and there are many facades. "

Wei Wei told reporters that in the past, the daily turnover of holiday shops such as "May Day" and "National Day" could be as high as 10,000 yuan, but this year's "May Day" shop did not make a single business.

Many shops are selling calligraphy and painting on sale. Some painters also told reporters that they are going to transform online live broadcast, get rid of the dependence on shops, and turn the attention of fans into economic income and drive sales through the business model of live broadcast.

"I have been in the oil painting village for 10 years. I should be one of the early painters. The rented storefront is about 300 square meters, and the rent has increased seven times from the initial 1 0,000 yuan. " Huang Ba of the store is preparing to withdraw the rent. "It is not advisable to go on like this. There is often no business for a few days, foreign orders cannot be received, and domestic orders are few. "

Make a difference in high-end industries

In addition to office buildings and shops, as the main factory gathering place in Shenzhen, a considerable number of factories have moved to Dongguan, Huizhou and Foshan. Boss Zhao, a furniture manufacturer, told the reporter: "At present, the average rent of Shiyan factory is around 40 yuan/square meter, but the rent of Huizhou factory is 8 yuan/square meter, and the wages of employees are calculated by piece. Compared with Shenzhen, Huizhou has great incentives for enterprises and is more attractive. "

"Our factory has been in Shenzhen for 20 years, and the scale is relatively large. But at present, the headquarters may also move to Huizhou immediately, because Huizhou also has related upstream and downstream industrial chains. " Mr. Luo, an office worker of Shiyan Carton Packaging Company Paper Printing (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., told the reporter.

Subject to the reduction of land use, the cost of factors such as rent, employee wages and raw materials has risen, and the development space of large-scale and mechanized production enterprises has been gradually compressed. The scale of these enterprises ranges from tens of millions to billions.

With the decline of popularity, second-hand landlords are also facing the situation that no one rents them. There are more and more advertisements for renting factories.

Boss Zhao told reporters: "In recent years, the Shenzhen government has been leading the industrial upgrading and eliminating some backward low-end manufacturing industries. But if all the low-end manufacturing industries move away, who will serve these high-end manufacturing industries? The enterprises concentrated in Shiyan factory area are actually an upstream and downstream industrial chain. If a manufacturing industry moves away, it may mean the migration of an industrial chain, and many upstream and downstream supporting enterprises will also move away. The affiliation of many small enterprises is also unfavorable to the development of advanced manufacturing in Shenzhen. "

It is reported that in recent years, Shiyan Street in Baoan District is undergoing industrial transformation and upgrading, and plans to build a high-tech industrial cluster represented by artificial intelligence, aerospace, next-generation information technology and logistics warehousing. 20 19 Shiyan street work report mentioned that many enterprises in Shiyan district are at the low end of value chain and industrial chain, and some large enterprises have reduced orders and insufficient motivation. The output value of the six production bases accounts for 23% of the street, and the local tax only accounts for 2% of the street. 5500 enterprises occupy 75% of the industrial space, but only contribute 10% of the output value.

Scholar Jin Xinyi said earlier that the urban agglomeration with Shenzhen as its hub has initially established a market system for scientific and technological innovation. This achievement shows that China enterprises can make a difference in higher-end industries, and the most ideal result should be that the coastal economic center turns to high-end industries and the low-end industries turn to the surrounding underdeveloped areas.

Guo Wanda, executive vice president of China (Shenzhen) Research Institute for Comprehensive Development, said in an interview with the Securities Times reporter that if enterprises move their production lines to neighboring cities such as Dongguan, Huizhou and Zhongshan, the integrity of Shenzhen's industrial chain will not be greatly affected, but if they move further to Jiangxi, even Vietnam or other Southeast Asian countries, then Shenzhen really needs to "repair the chain".

In Guo Wanda's view, it is an industry undertaking role for enterprises to transfer production lines to surrounding cities. "The industrial chain is not defined by administrative divisions. As long as the flow of production factors is realized within the one-hour economic circle, it does not have to be in Shenzhen. "

"Commercial leasing" is still a new model.

A senior office sales manager said that if there is a serious surplus of office buildings, "it is easy to change the business to rent."

"Commercial Rent" is expected to become a new model for raising rental housing in Shenzhen. At the beginning of this year, the Notice of Shenzhen Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau on matters related to the transformation of existing commercial and office buildings into rental housing (draft for comments) began to solicit public opinions. In view of the fact that some commercial office buildings are idle, Shenzhen urgently needs to solve the problem of rental housing through multiple channels. The Notice proposes that existing commercial office buildings will be allowed to be converted into rental housing, effectively increasing the effective supply of Shenzhen's housing rental market and realizing the goal of "living and living" for citizens.

When it comes to changing business to rent, we have to mention long-term rental apartments. Low rate of return and difficult profitability have always been the pain points of the long-term rental apartment industry. Under the influence of the epidemic, if the financial strength is not strong enough, the capital chain will break at any time.

Luo Yi, who lives in Wanke City, Bantian, Longgang, has been a little flattered recently. "I have been renting here for five years, and this year is the first time I received a call from the landlord. The main thing is to ask me if I want to update some furniture and appliances, and then let me renew the rent without adding rent. "

Affected by the epidemic, many parents in Shenzhen have introduced different levels of rent reduction or other supporting concessions. A manager of a long-term rental apartment in Futian District said that in addition to reducing part of the rent, tenants are also given a five-day period, which can be said to be unprecedented. In Futian Jing Tian area, a staff member of a long-term rental apartment with the background of real estate enterprises told the Securities Times reporter that although the rent pressure of long-term rental apartments is widespread at present, it has shown some signs of improvement compared with the previous two months. "At present, the housing rent of 28 square meters is around 5,800 yuan. If you rent for a long time for one year, you can get some discounts, but the range will not be too big. After all, our quality and cost are still very high. "

In the Honghu area of Luohu, a long-term rental apartment named No.8 Dormitory Apartment was transformed from the original storage building. The reporter found that there were not a few people who came to make an appointment to see the house. A duplex unit with one room and one living room costs about 4000 yuan a month. However, due to the renovation of warehouse buildings, some flat houses are not high enough, giving people a feeling of depression. The staff also said that even so, the number of people who came to rent houses recently began to increase, especially young people. According to the staff, some young people's jobs are still unstable, but their family's economic strength can still support them, so they give up the villages in the city and ordinary residential quarters that need long-term rental and choose long-term rental apartments in short rent instead.