The impact of the epidemic on the automobile market in China exceeded expectations.

Secretary-General of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association? Cui Dongshu

1. It is expected that the auto market will return to normal in May, and the annual growth rate is preliminarily estimated to be -8%.

Second, the core factor affecting the automobile market is the lack of spending power of first-time car buyers.

Third, the epidemic promotes online marketing diversion and cultivates redemption loyalty.

Q: When do you think the auto market will return to normal? What do you think of the growth of the automobile market this year?

A: In February 2020, the retail volume of passenger car market in China was 252,000, which was 78.5% lower than that in February 2065, 438+09. The cumulative retail volume in February was 65,438+0.0%, which was 0.0% lower than that in February 2009. Affected by the epidemic, the automobile market is seriously depressed.

The overall social consumption in the country is also seriously depressed. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in June and February was 521300 million yuan, a nominal decrease of 20.5% year-on-year. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles was 4,847.6 billion yuan, down 18.9%.

Due to the epidemic, all aspects of people's lives, especially the entertainment consumption demand, have been hit hard. In the first three weeks of March, retail sales rebounded to 50%. If we want to rise to the same level as last year, we need to fully resume social and economic activities. It is estimated that May can really return to a relatively normal consumption level.

At present, the downturn of the auto market in February exceeded expectations, and the auto market recovered slowly from March to April, and it is expected to return to normal after May. If there is no strong stimulus policy at the national level, the negative growth rate of the automobile market may further increase in 2020, and it will be lowered by 3 percentage points on the basis of the previous forecast of 5%.

At present, the international epidemic situation is developing severely, and the domestic policy expectation is still unclear. It remains to be seen that the further downward adjustment is expected.

Q: What do you think is the biggest difficulty or uncertainty affecting the automobile market at present?

A: With the outbreak of the epidemic in China market first, from the end of June, 65438+10, the automobile market in China entered a period of deep impact of the epidemic. In February, the automobile market decreased by 80% year-on-year, which was deeply affected by the epidemic. Subsequently, the domestic automobile market consumption gradually recovered, while the world automobile market was gradually affected by the epidemic, forming a trend that China automobile market recovered and the world automobile market weakened.

Exports contributed little. Because many countries are not very friendly to China under the epidemic, there will be great pressure on our exports, and it is difficult for our exports to be unexpectedly driven by the epidemic.

In order to promote consumption, we must convince people who buy new cars for the first time. The core of promoting automobile consumption is to promote the popularity of private cars, which can produce incremental effects.

Under the existing conditions, the key measures to promote automobile consumption are mostly to promote replacement demand, rather than to effectively promote new purchase demand. The reason is that replacement demand can not only promote the growth of new car sales, but also promote the growth of used cars, but not the total amount, and local governments have little pressure on environmental protection and congestion control. It can be said that the new car redemption subsidy has not achieved the expected effect of directly improving the entry-level consumption of ordinary people.

Due to the echelon characteristics of consumption, the result of paying too much attention to the redemption market is that luxury cars continue to strengthen, joint venture brands are clearly differentiated, and the pressure on independent brands is increasing day by day. Recently, the real estate market in small and medium-sized cities is stronger than that in big cities, and the focus of e-commerce performance growth is also small town consumption, but the county-level market, which is the focus of passenger car growth, has shrunk significantly.

In order to stabilize the consumption of traditional mainstream commodities such as automobiles, it is necessary to stimulate the enthusiasm of first-time car buyers. This is also an important reason why the purchase tax reduction and exemption policies in 20 15 and 2009 achieved particularly good results.

Q: What long-term impact will this epidemic have on the sales and marketing model of China automobile?

A: Due to the pressure of the epidemic, the number of trains after the city was closed this year has been greatly reduced, and dealers have been closed for a long time, which will naturally affect the automobile market. From the dealer's point of view, the automobile sales activities in many areas are seriously affected because of the control of social mobility. Similar car group buying meetings and some offline marketing activities cannot be carried out.

At present, almost all car companies and dealers are actively "saving themselves", vigorously developing online marketing, maintaining customers on the mobile phone side, and letting consumers watch cars online through Tik Tok or other webcast platforms. The "online+offline" mode that major platforms are trying is also showing signs of recovery, but the effect is average.

In the future, online promotion and diversified consumer communication at the manufacturer level will increase, and customer maintenance and loyalty training at the dealer level are important measures to maintain sales.

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