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: CCTV 2-July 13 China Financial Report-Will Shanghai and Hangzhou End the skyrocketing housing prices?

Speaker: jnssa 1 Date of submission: July 2004-15 10: 44.

Shanghai and Hangzhou housing prices end skyrocketing market?

CCTV International July 2004 14 15:09

(Moderator) Hello, everyone, this is the CCTV Economic Channel. Welcome to China Financial Report. Buying a house naturally depends on the price. Many people have noticed that the property prices in Shanghai and Hangzhou have changed almost every day in the past two years. It is not an exaggeration to describe it as skyrocketing. This kind of market makes people who plan to buy a house very uncomfortable, but recently, our reporter found in a local interview that the housing prices in Shanghai and Hangzhou suddenly stopped skyrocketing. What's going on here? Let's go to Shanghai with the reporter first to find out.

In Shanghai, the strong rising real estate market for six years has given birth to the development of an industry, that is, the second-hand housing agency. When Shanghai's real estate soared last year, the market position of second-hand housing agents became increasingly prominent. Many people buy houses, hang them here, sell them at a high price after a period of time, and earn a lot of money. Intermediary companies charge 2% commission from them. Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet, the signal of supply and demand reversal in Shanghai real estate market, first appeared in the intermediary market.

In Shanghai, second-hand housing intermediary companies can be seen everywhere. In the words of Shanghainese, there are more intermediary companies than rice shops. Recently, however, the second-hand housing market in Shanghai, whether it is the transaction price, transaction speed or quantity, has seen a significant decline, and many intermediary companies have closed down. On Zhenning Road, Jing 'an District, Shanghai, the reporter saw real estate agents next to each other, but some were already iron generals, and some were even changed into clothing stores.

Reporter: "Hello, isn't this a real estate second-hand housing agency?"

"Yes, they stopped doing so. Our boss borrowed a house here and rented a house to make clothes. "

Reporter: "I think many stores have been changed into clothing stores. Isn't this street all real estate agents? "

Real estate agent: "Yes, there used to be many agents here, about forty or fifty, but now almost half of them are closed."

Those who stay are also struggling to support. They said that the transaction volume in the last month was particularly small, and many people wanted to sell houses, but the price was too high, scaring away customers. At present, most people who want to buy a house hold a wait-and-see attitude, so some real estate agents have no income for a month.

Real estate agent: business is still relatively weak, and now business is not as good as before. "

Reporter: "How many sets can you trade a day?"

"How many sets can you trade a day? It would be nice to be able to trade one set a month. I can still trade a few sets a day, and I can't laugh at trading a few sets a day. "

Jiang Xiaofeng is an employee of a real estate agency in Shanghai. When Shanghai's real estate soared last year, Jiang Xiaofeng was busy receiving customers every day. Recently, however, their company's business is not very good. All morning, Jiang Xiaofeng sat in the office reading newspapers, making phone calls and waiting for customers to come to the door.

Jiang Xiaofeng of Shanghai Jinfeng Yiju Fengzhuang Store said: General customers went public in 2003. If the average floor is good, it will sell quickly in a day or two. Basically, we can make more than a dozen sets a month. It will be fine before May this year. After May, the auction house was difficult to transfer, which affected the performance of the store. Because of that policy, relatively speaking, there are not many customers buying houses in the store, and the transaction volume has shrunk.

Jiang Xiaofeng's "policy" is the "Measures for Online Filing and Registration of Commercial Housing Sales Contracts" promulgated by the Shanghai Municipal Government in April, which is known as the online sunshine transaction of houses. According to the regulations, the sales information of all new commercial housing projects in Shanghai must be published online, and the location, price, time and price can be seen at a glance. Therefore, speculation and real estate speculation are prohibited.

(Moderator) I have a message about the first transparent online transaction in Shanghai. It is said that a consumer originally planned to buy a new house named "Violet Garden". On the morning of June 26th, she turned on the computer and saw that Violet Jiayuan suddenly sold 577 houses overnight. There is no room in the sales office, but these houses all appear in intermediary companies, so consumers report to Shanghai Real Estate Resources Bureau. After investigation, the company did sell the house to an intermediary company at an ultra-low price from 0: 00 am to 7: 00 am on June 26, and the transparency on the Internet exposed the company's real estate speculation. This company was fined 580 thousand yuan, which shows the supervision of real estate speculation. So what does the current market portend for the fiery Shanghai housing prices?

Liu Qun, who is engaged in real estate consulting information, has been busy collecting the sales data of new buildings and the transaction data of second-hand houses. He thinks that Shanghai's real estate market is somewhat similar to the stock market. If the rise of the Shanghai real estate market in recent years is compared to the K-line chart, the Shanghai real estate market has now entered a consolidation period.

Liu Qun, a consulting firm of Wachovia Bank in Shanghai, said that the housing prices in Shanghai should have been rising gradually since 1999, which has been more than four years. Technically, it needs an integration requirement. The overall increase this year is still relatively large compared with last year. It can be seen from this aspect that the overall price of Shanghai property market is relatively high, reaching a relatively high point. Judging from the current market situation, we can see that the market is now more wait-and-see about housing. "

Talking about the current cold second-hand housing market, Liu Qun said that some Shanghai policies to curb speculators have begun to take effect. He said that because many people in Shanghai's second-hand housing market sell houses at relatively high prices, the market has a certain price but there is no market for high-priced houses.

It is not only the second-hand housing agency, but also the life of real estate developers is even more sad. Liu Qun said that the sales of new buildings show that the transaction speed of newly opened buildings in Shanghai has dropped significantly recently, and a new round of land transfer has appeared in the land market, so the situation that the supply of the whole property market is slightly more than the demand has arrived. For this statement, we have been confirmed in the sales centers of some new buildings.

The salesperson said, last year I thought everyone would line up to buy a new disk. Generally speaking, the house will be sold out in a month or so. If the same house is sold again this year, it is estimated that it may take more than a month, two months or even longer. "

In addition, the long-lost discount has once again appeared in the high-end apartment market in Shanghai. Although the price has not dropped, it is an indisputable fact that the increase has dropped.

Last year was the fastest year for Shanghai's housing prices to rise. In a year, Shanghai's housing prices climbed by an average of 29%, which can be described as a roller coaster. The average price per square meter is 538 1 yuan, which is one of the highest housing prices in China. In the first quarter of this year, the price of commercial housing in Shanghai rose by 3.98%; In the second quarter, the price of commercial housing rose by 3.65%, and the price increase in the second quarter decreased by 0.33% compared with the first quarter. Pang Yuan, deputy director of Shanghai Real Estate Administration Bureau, predicted that in the second half of this year, the supply of commercial housing in Shanghai will change from short supply to oversupply, and the price increase will continue to fall.

Liu Qun, Shanghai Wachovia Bank Consulting Company: I estimate that the skyrocketing trend will come to an end, but in the long run, Shanghai real estate has the potential to continue to climb. Coupled with the 2008 Olympic Games and the 20 10 Shanghai World Expo, it is generally believed that there is a general expectation of rising house prices in the early stage of the World Expo. "

(Moderator) It takes more than two hours to reach another beautiful city, Hangzhou, by train from Shanghai. Hangzhou is also one of the fastest-rising areas in recent years. It is said that "Luoyang paper is expensive", and here there is another saying that "Hangzhou is expensive". But now house prices in Hangzhou have not risen so fast. After the advertisement, we went to Hangzhou property market together.

Shao Linping started to invest in real estate in Hangzhou from 1996. He took a fancy to a place in Xiaoshan, Hangzhou, where he developed a community. In his own words, it was a good time to sell houses and make money.

Shao Linping, general manager of Hangzhou New World Real Estate Development Co., Ltd.: When we took it down, the land price was actually relatively high. As a result, we caught a good opportunity. Our real estate was opened at the end of 2000, from the average price of the first phase of 3,800 yuan per square meter to the total price of 3,800 yuan per square meter to about 6,500 yuan per square meter by the end of 2004, and we happened to meet gold sellers.

During this period, Shao Linping developed two phases of this project, during which it became a fire. He bought a piece of land nearby this year to develop a new project while the iron was hot. As soon as the market opened, he set the price at 5500 yuan per square meter, but it didn't work out. In desperation, Shao Linping had to reduce the price of 500 yuan.

Shao Linping, general manager of Hangzhou New World Real Estate Development Co., Ltd.: Our property was opened at the beginning of this month. At that time, our market expectations were relatively high. At that time, my expectation was about 5500 yuan per square meter. After the opening, that is to say, it is not ideal, and the sales are relatively dull. Unlike the opening up two years ago, it is impossible to raise prices by leaps and bounds. Basically, it is enough to maintain the original price.

Shao Linping said that not only is the price of newly-opened real estate low, but the enthusiasm of developers to buy land is not as high as before.

Shao Linping, general manager of Hangzhou New World Real Estate Development Co., Ltd.: Several plots of land have been launched in Binjiang District of Hangzhou, and no one has bid. Not two years ago. After the land was launched, everyone scrambled for it. This time, no one took the land listed by the government and no one delisted it.

Last year, housing prices in Hangzhou also experienced a skyrocketing stage. In 2003, the house price in Hangzhou rose to 5605 yuan/square meter, higher than that in Shanghai and Beijing. Attracted many real estate speculators. As soon as the new property opens, everyone is queuing to buy a house, and some properties can be sold out just one day after opening. Zhao Yijun, who is engaged in real estate consulting, told us that the sales speed of new houses in Hangzhou has dropped significantly.

Zhao Yijun, Director of Development Department of Zhejiang Zhongyuan Real Estate Consultant Co., Ltd.: Like a gorgeous jazz style project, less than 200 sets are sold out in 7 hours a day. The sales speed may also tend to be flat this year. It may be that it was originally planned to be sold out in a day or a few days, and this will not happen again for the time being.

In Hangzhou, the annual exhibitions held in May have always been very lively. The exhibitions will be like a barometer of the real estate market in Hangzhou. Regardless of the new and old buildings, after the exhibitions, there will always be four or five hundred yuan per square meter. But recalling the exhibitions held in May this year, Yu Xudong of Zhongyuan Real Estate Consulting Co., Ltd. said that this time is somewhat special.

Yu Xudong, Director of Operation of Zhejiang Zhongyuan Real Estate Consultant Co., Ltd.: On the day of the exhibition, according to my personal experience, it should be a clear sky in Wan Li every year, but this year's exhibition is a bit special, and it has experienced a rare rainstorm over the years. For our own insiders, it is a joke to regard this as a signal that the property market in Hangzhou is going to cool down. (Moderator) When reporters interviewed in Shanghai and Hangzhou, they heard more questions about this topic-has the Shanghai-Hangzhou property market ended its skyrocketing market? Is this a temporary phenomenon? What is the root cause of this price change? What will be the future price trend? With questions, let's take a look at the expert's opinion.

Gu Yunchang, Secretary General of China Real Estate Association:

The reason why housing prices in Shanghai and Hangzhou have risen sharply in the past two years is mainly due to insufficient supply and demand. In addition to self-occupation demand, it is mainly investment demand. Recently, through macro-control, the central and local governments have solved the problem of supply and demand, controlled the investment demand, slowed down the demolition speed, reduced the amount of demolition, and increased the supply of medium and low-priced commercial housing. I think the current housing prices in Shanghai and Hangzhou are a rational regression, which makes the housing prices rise sharply, which is a good phenomenon from macro-control.

(Moderator) What people are more worried about is the inflection point of the real estate market price trend in Shanghai and Hangzhou. Is there a domino effect on other regions? What warning or reference does the sudden change of Shanghai-Hangzhou property market have for the whole real estate industry? Let's see what experts think about this.

Gu Yunchang, Secretary General of China Real Estate Association:

The average price of real estate in China rose by 3% to 4% last year, so there is no bubble problem. Other areas are different from Shanghai and Hangzhou. For example, Beijing's housing prices have declined steadily in the past two years, while Guangzhou's housing prices have been relatively stable, with a slight decline, so there is no domino phenomenon. I have noticed that the central and local governments have been paying attention to the price changes of real estate recently. Slow down if you grow too fast, and rise if you grow too slowly. I hope that in the future, our housing prices will be long and the property market will be prosperous year after year.

(Moderator) The rise and fall of property prices is related to thousands of households. From the current ups and downs of real estate prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou and other places, we can easily see that the state's regulation of the real estate industry has shown its role, the abnormal phenomenon of real estate speculation has begun to decrease, and property prices have gradually become stable, rational and orderly. I believe this is one of the signs that the real estate industry is gradually rational and healthy. Well, thank you for watching today's China Financial Report. please