20 16 Shenzhen property market is in short supply, will it continue?

20 15 The skyrocketing housing prices in Shenzhen are not only favorable policies, but also the shortage of commercial housing. 20 16 will this situation continue?

"two children" is released, and the compact four-bedroom is popular?

With the liberalization of "two children in all", the family population will increase and the demand for buying a house will also change. The industry believes that changing from three rooms to four rooms or even five rooms is just needed. The expansion of huxing will directly increase the cost of buying a house. According to the statistics of the research center, if Shenzhen has a second child, it only needs to change from "two rooms" to "three rooms" due to the increase of family population, and the increased purchase cost will reach 6.5438+0.3 million.

In order to cater to the market and make full use of space, many developers are planning to build small-area multi-room units to meet the requirements of home buyers without increasing the area and total price.

According to the monitoring of the research center, since 20 15, the proportion of three bedrooms in the supply of new houses has declined, and even fell to 30% in some months, which is far from 80% in the peak period of 20 14. In sharp contrast, the proportion of four bedrooms has increased, and the transaction types of new houses have also shown a similar trend. Four bedrooms below 90 square meters are heating up rapidly in the market.

According to the statistics of Midland Property (Shenzhen) National Research Center, among the projects expected to enter the market in the first quarter of 20 16, most of the projects have strong expandability, and about 30% are four-bedroom projects with an area of about 90 square meters.

How big is the price increase?

20 15 As the leader of the national housing price increase this year, the average price of first-hand housing has increased by more than 40% year-on-year, and the housing prices in some hot spots have even doubled. 20 16 is coming, can the upward trend of housing prices in Shenzhen continue?

Some insiders said that in 20 16, affected by the "comprehensive two-child" policy, interest rate cuts, RRR interest rate cuts and other favorable factors, the situation of the national real estate market will continue to improve, and the Shenzhen market, which led the country this year, is expected to slow down after a sustained sharp rise.

According to industry insiders, in the short term, housing prices in Shenzhen will not rise sharply this year, and reasonable housing prices in Shenzhen should be between 36,000 and 38,000 square meters. But for the trend of 20 16 Shenzhen housing prices, he admits that it will continue to rise, but the increase is limited. Due to the long-term imbalance of housing supply structure in Shenzhen (the supply of commercial housing is small and the stock is small), the market demand is still large in the future, and the house price will still maintain a certain upward trend. It is estimated that in 2065,438+06, the price of new commercial housing in Shenzhen will still maintain an upward trend of about 65,438+00%.

Can new house transactions continue to be hot?

On the supply side, according to statistics, it is estimated that there will be 136 new markets in Shenzhen in 20 16, with a supply area of14.93 million square meters.

As of February 20 15 and 18, the residential and apartment project in Shenzhen 12 1 covers an area of 7.06 million square meters. Among them, the old reform continued to exert its strength. Among the projects that will enter the market in 20 16, there are nearly 50 urban renewal projects, accounting for nearly 40% of the supply area of new houses in the city; Among the projects that will enter the market in 20 16, there are as many as 37 complex projects, mainly in Nanshan, Longgang and Longhua; In addition, regional planning differences lead to the rotation of hotspots, and the proportion of each district will change to some extent: Longgang still maintains the first supply, Baoan's future supply ratio is basically the same as 20 15, Longhua's 20 16 supply ratio is 13.3%, and Luohu's 20 16 supply ratio is rising, accounting for 5./of the city's supply.

According to the statistics of China Index Academy, as of 20 15 12.20, the number of first-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen this year was 635 1 1. In recent years, the annual turnover of new houses in Shenzhen is generally controlled at around 40,000. The data shows that the transaction of new houses increased by 52% year-on-year.

Some insiders have analyzed that the climax of this round of transactions indicates that the market is overdrawing demand in advance, and it is predicted that the transaction volume of new houses in the city will usher in a relatively low level next year.

Can the investment boom continue?

The short-term skyrocketing property market in Shenzhen has brought considerable benefits to investors. This year, "3? The "30 new policies" ignited the enthusiasm of investors, and the proportion increased sharply.

Data show that from 2065438 to June 2005, the proportion of investment rose to the highest value of 23% this year. According to the monitoring of the research center, by the end of 20 15438+0 1 5, investors of 20 15 accounted for about 26% of all property buyers, and even some individuals accounted for about 30%. Among investors, some people choose "immediate" to buy and sell. The data shows that the proportion of "short-term speculators" accounts for about 10% of all buyers, and some hot spots are even close to 30%, compared with only 3%-5% last year.

Will "Wang Di" come again next year?

Before 65438+February, this year's land king conjecture frequently failed. In February this year, China Shipping won the old plot in Lu Dancun at the reserve price, and in September, Longguang won the Hongshan plot in Longhua at the reserve price. After nearly a year's silence, Shenzhen land market finally broke out at the end of 65438+February.

65438+At the end of February, Cinda and Kunrun jointly won the plot of G11337-0/in Pingshan New District for 3.03 billion yuan, becoming the king of 20 15 Pingshan District. Later, Fujian Zhongwei won two plots of land in the Jiangangshan area for 5.7 billion yuan, one of which won the national unit price of 20 15 at a floor price of nearly 80,000/flat.

Looking forward to 20 16, we can't help asking, will Wang Di come to Shenzhen next year?

As we all know, residential land in Shenzhen has been in short supply. At present, most new commercial housing land mainly comes from urban renewal. According to the data, in 20 13, Shenzhen sold 3 cases of residential land, and in 20 14, Shenzhen only sold 1 case of residential land. Some experts pointed out that in the next five years, Shenzhen is expected to supply only 0.33 square kilometers of new residential land each year, and there is almost no new land available. However, the existing land is difficult to revitalize and the urban renewal cycle is long, which makes it difficult to alleviate the tight supply situation. Therefore, the expectation of tight supply in the future property market will exist for a long time.

In addition, some analysts pointed out that "developers are generally optimistic about the land in Shenzhen". Since the beginning of this year, the trend of large-scale housing enterprises returning to first-and second-tier cities is obvious. The land market in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen is heating up, and land kings are frequent. It is understood that a few days ago, a number of foreign enterprises participated in the auction of the land in the Jian' gangshan area of Baoan. In addition to Fujian Zhongwei, who won two plots in one fell swoop, there are Wharf and China Resources in Hong Kong, Gezhouba in Hubei, Beijing Capital and Guo Rui (Liaoning) in Northeast China, which shows that many foreign developers are eager to enter the Shenzhen market. However, due to the reduction of land supply in first-tier cities, the land transaction volume hit a new low in 9 years. "It is not ruled out that there will be land kings next year, but the number will not be very high."

Can the "zombie disk" see the light of day again?

At the beginning of June, it was reported that there were some "zombie disks" in Shenzhen, which had not been sold for nearly 10 years. Half a year has passed, and Zhuoneng OPUS in Longhua, Tianfu Huafu in Baoan and Jixianglong Garden in Houhai are all on sale. After Buji opened a marketing center at a new site, there was no following.

According to the author's investigation, there are still some projects with undetermined opening time in the market, many of which are nearing completion and even converted into existing houses. Among them, Dehong Tianxia in Luohu has not yet opened a marketing center; The second phase of Bujiruize Jiayuan opened on 20 13 and has been sold out. The time for adding the remaining five existing houses is to be determined. After the opening of Guangxing Xingyuan Na Wei 20 13, the time for pushing the remaining units in Wang Lou is to be determined.

The emergence of "zombie disk" is mostly not because of the cover disk, but because of various reasons, the project can not be sold. As for whether those properties that have not been bought for many years can be launched next year, he said, "It is absolutely possible, but it is hard to say how likely it is."

(The above answers were published on 20 16-0 1-09. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )

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