How should a college graduate survive and stand in Shanghai? (well said, chasing 50 points)

In the past two years, there have been many controversies about whether there is a real estate bubble in China, but the real estate price has been rising despite these controversies. Whether house prices go up or down depends first on who says it's up or down. If some real estate developers say that they are going up, it means that they have said nothing, because few people in the world don't say that their products are good, let alone that what they sold at that time will fall (this is equivalent to driving away real buyers).

Some people who own a house, even in real estate speculation, or who are not short of money to buy a house, no matter who they are, are not credible, because they either don't care about the rise in house prices, because buying a house is a big deal for them, or they have a house in their hands, so that they can have nothing to do after the rise in house prices. Secondly, it depends on whether it makes sense or not. My obscurity does not represent anyone's interests. Whether what I said is objective or not is a question of public opinion:

First, the price is determined by the value and is influenced by the relationship between supply and demand. It's hard to judge the value of houses in Shanghai, but look at the example of Japan. Because there are so many people and so few places, the whole country thinks that houses in Japan should rise sharply. As a result, at the peak, the theoretical land price in Tokyo and its surrounding areas exceeded the land value of the whole country in the United States and the net assets of all companies listed on the new york Stock Exchange. In such an atmosphere, people can't help being crazy and losing their proper reason. So I'm afraid we can't think that the house value in Shanghai should be as high as 10000 yuan/square meter just because the land price doesn't represent the value.

Second, a few years ago, because of the monetization of housing distribution, many people originally bought property houses from units at extremely low prices, and then sold them at high prices, resulting in a wealth effect. As a result, their purchasing power has increased, and there is a need to improve housing conditions. In recent years, this part of purchasing power has been released intensively, but the good thing of buying public houses at low prices and selling them at high prices no longer exists, so once this part of purchasing power is released, the driving force for the real estate market will suddenly disappear.

The old lady in China worked hard all her life and finally saved enough money to buy a house, but she died before enjoying it. The story of an American old lady living in a good house early and paying off all her loans before her death is widely circulated. Now it is a common phenomenon to buy a house by loan, and mortgage has become a high-quality asset of banks. However, in recent years, the total amount of bank loans in China has risen sharply, which is precisely the years when China has continuously cut interest rates and the repayment pressure has been declining. The current interest rate is the lowest since the reform and opening up. The one-year deposit rate is only 2.25%, while the loan rate is just over 5%. The average one-year deposit rate in China for more than 20 years is around 4%. According to the current spread, the average loan interest rate is around 7%, while the average housing loan interest rate in the United States for decades is 8-9%. If the loan interest rate rises to 7%, there will still be so many people who are keen on buying a house with loans. I am afraid that people who used to borrow money to buy a house will fall into financial quagmire because of the pressure of repayment. Moreover, in different countries in the world, the interest rate of bank deposits is always higher than the inflation rate in different periods, but now it is the opposite in China, which is abnormal. Sooner or later, the interest rate will exceed the price increase, and now China has started to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade. In this way, it is unlikely that bank loans, a financial lever, will continue to increase the purchasing power of housing in the next few years.

Li Ka-shing said: No one will die if house prices go up, but they will definitely die if they go down. One of the most important reasons is that the monthly supply of housing goods by banks will be as strict as a sword.

Fourthly, China is likely to implement property tax in the future. What do you mean? That is to say, the state gives the land to the developer free of charge, so that the price of the house does not include land, and the price will plummet (at present, the land cost accounts for about 40% of the house price). Of course, land is not free, and buyers will pay it in an average of 30 to 50 years. As soon as this policy comes out, who do you think will buy a house with land costs? Will the house price be so high after paying the land cost? Moreover, second-hand houses are not easy to sell, because everyone is willing to buy low-cost houses without land costs. I think this policy will definitely be implemented, and so will some developed countries such as the United States.

According to the law of our country, the owner does not own the ownership of the house and land, but only has the right to use it, which is only 70 years at most. In other words, after 70 years, the ownership of land will be over. It is not clear whether the land use right fee will be handed over to the state again or used for free in the future, or whether the state will recover the right to use according to the objective situation. But 70 years later, this day will come. Because the relevant laws were promulgated soon, the earliest commercial housing was far from the term of land use right. But people will be more and more aware of this problem. However, the current traffic, location, environment and so on. Often the market determines the house price, never considering the term of land use rights. When people begin to generally consider this issue, the house price with short term of land use right will inevitably fall, especially the second-hand house with long house age.

6. Whether it is the foreign exchange market, the stock market or the futures market, the more it rises, the more it peaks. 1929 before the new york stock market crash triggered the world economic crisis, the stock market soared and the trading was hot. So is the property market. Moreover, there is a law of inertia. The greater the value of a commodity, the harder it is to rise, but once it rises, it can last for a long time. For example, stocks, if they are large-cap stocks with a market value of10 billion, are generally not easy to rise, because they need more money to promote them, and once they start to rise, they are not easy to stop, unlike the vegetable prices in the market, which may change three times a day, or are as unpredictable as girls' minds. Similarly, the real estate market is capital-intensive, once it rises, it will last for a long time, but once it starts to fall, it is not easy to turn back. Hong Kong, for example, dropped by 60% from 1997 to 2002. Japan's economy showed signs of recovery this year, but house prices fell by 5%.

7. At present, there is basically nothing lacking in China, except some monopolistic products, because there is sufficient social capital now. Once the profit rate of an industry is high, capital will flock to this industry, thus reducing the profit rate of this industry. Marx said that once the capital has a profit of 20%, it will be active. If it has a profit of 50%, it will be used everywhere-such as matches. If there is a profit margin of 200%, the output will rise soon, and the profit margin will fall soon, even negative. At this time, many investors will have to withdraw from the market, so the profit rate will gradually rise, and finally it will be equivalent to the average social profit rate. But why can the real estate industry prosper for several years without recession? Because the production cycle is long. The match factory in a place may increase tenfold in a month, but if the real estate projects under construction in a place double in a month, it is unlikely to be a Great Leap Forward, which requires a lot of money and serious unfair competition. Therefore, for a period of time, the profit rate of this industry declined rapidly, so the house price was high. But everything in the world has ups and downs, and the production cycle is not infinite. There will always be this day. Is it long for Pluto to circle the sun? Long, more than 200 years. Is 200 years long enough? More than 200 years have passed, and there is no turning back? People can't live forever, and house prices will eventually fall.

8. According to the development speed of real estate in recent years, it is far greater than the growth rate of GDP. In this way, the GDP of China's real estate industry will surpass that of the whole country by 2020. Is this possible? So the growth rate will definitely decline.

Nine, psychological factors. Mao Zedong said: Truth is always in the hands of a few people. Now go to the market and ask buyers, sellers, real estate agents, or government departments whether Shanghai's housing prices will rise or fall. Nobody knows. That is, everyone has no opinion in their hearts, so ordinary people have the psychology of buying up and not buying down. As soon as I saw the newspaper report that there were people queuing to buy a house, I was anxious and excited. I regretted the price increase of the house I wanted to buy. This reminds me of a story often told by Warren Buffett, an American stock god: an oilman died and went to heaven. As a result, St. Peter said, I'm really sorry. I know you were virtuous and did a lot of good things when you were alive, but heaven is saturated and there is no room for people. The oilman said, never mind, I have an idea. He shouted at the gate of heaven: oil was found in hell! Many people immediately ran out of the gate and tried to go to hell. St. Peter looked at all this in surprise and said, now you can go to heaven. Unexpectedly, the oilman said, "No, I'm going to hell. Maybe the news is true. " .

X. Publicity function. Without statistical data, it can be concluded that newspapers and online say that house prices have risen far more than they have fallen. Why? For every newspaper sold in 0.5 yuan, you can earn 1 yuan. The open secret is that it has advertising revenue. Will a newspaper take the advertising fee of a real estate agent and publish a large number of articles that objectively and fairly think that house prices will fall? On the contrary, it published some articles that house prices would go up and encourage people to buy houses, but real estate developers supported them.

Some people say that local governments do not want local house prices to fall, so house prices will not fall. Joke: Isn't the Japanese government richer than a local government in China? Even the Hong Kong government is far richer than some local governments in China? Do the Japanese and Hong Kong governments want house prices to fall when they keep falling? Some people may think that the local government in China, with less financial strength than Japan and Hong Kong, has the power to do what Japan and Hong Kong can't. More importantly, the rise and fall of commodity prices are determined by economic laws, not by people's subjective will.

Twelve, some people think that land is a non-renewable resource, so in the long run, house prices will always rise. This sentence is of course correct. In fact, in the long run, the stock market is also rising. 1929 new york stock market plunged, and now it has risen many times. But who will buy stocks at 1930? How many people in China are actively buying stocks now? Even though everyone knows that the stock market is definitely bullish in the long run. New york used to be a cheap gadget worth $24. If we invest this $24 with an annual interest rate of 8%, it will become $28 trillion by 1995. If you save $24, you can buy Manhattan again. If someone bought new york in 1950 at the price of 1995, it would definitely make a big profit in another 200 years, but it was a loss at that time.

Thirteen. About the ratio of income to house price. Nowadays, many people, especially those who can benefit from rising housing prices, like to tell the ignorant and hesitant people that the housing prices in Hong Kong are far from those in the mainland, and will rise sharply in the future. However, a cleaning lady in Hong Kong can earn 9,000 Hong Kong dollars a month. In places like Hong Kong, the income is stable and the unemployment rate is low. So look at the ratio of income to house price. The highest housing price in Hong Kong is only 14: 1. Mr. Liu Jianchang of China Academy of Social Sciences estimates that, taking Shanghai as an example, the price of an 80-square-meter house is 27.54 times the per capita disposable income, while the multiples of a house and per capita disposable income abroad are: Germany 1 1.4 1, Britain 10.3 and Italy 8.6/kloc respectively. It makes sense that many things have China characteristics, but it is impossible to keep the ratio of house price to income so high.

Fourteen, China in the next few decades, one thing is certain, that is, the urbanization of China, a large number of farmers will enter the city and become citizens. But how to accomplish this task? According to the current income level of farmers in China, they have just reached a well-off level. Once their children go to college, they have to tighten their belts or borrow a lot. Usually, some families will become poor immediately because their family members are ill. This income situation cannot be changed in the short term. Isn't the high housing price in the city unbearable for farmers now? Therefore, in order to improve the urbanization rate of China, in the long run, the housing prices in China must come down, so that people with average income levels can afford it.

15. In the past two years, due to the continuous rise in housing prices, a large amount of funds poured into this market in pursuit of high profits, waiting for appreciation after buying. There is a warning line for the proportion of real estate speculation in the world, which is about 15%. Exceeding this ratio is even more dangerous. However, according to a sample survey conducted by Shanghai Liberation Daily, 26.55% of the 23,694 households in 25 residential areas in Shanghai have invested in their houses. A larger number of residents rent out their old houses after buying new ones, and use the rent to pay for new house loans. In fact, this is also an investment behavior. People who invest in buying a house can promote the further rise of house prices in the process of rising house prices. Similarly, when the house price peaks, because there is no expectation of making big money, and in order to avoid losing all one's money, it will inevitably sell in large quantities and accelerate the decline of house prices. In China, Wenzhou real estate speculators are famous all over the country, while in Shanghai, there are other investors and overseas investors who crashed in China. I don't remember how many houses in Shanghai were bought by foreigners, about 40%, but in some big international cities, such as new york, 75% of the properties were bought by local residents. In short, the more people invest in buying a house, the greater the promotion of housing prices and the more serious the bubble.

Sixteen, few people have a clear, well-founded and correct judgment about the future, and most people think that the original trend will still develop in the original direction and speed. For example, since the reform and opening up in China, the economy has been growing continuously, so most people think that this situation will not change for at least twenty or thirty years. House prices have been rising in recent years, so many people think they will continue to rise. But now one thing is becoming more and more sensitive, and that is the issue of Taiwan Province Province. Now Chen Shui-bian's tendency towards Taiwan independence is becoming more and more obvious, his courage is getting bigger and bigger, his words are getting worse and worse, and he even has a timetable. Mao Zedong said: The word "earnest" is frightening in the world. And China * * * production party has always been serious and responsible for the country, I'm afraid that once Taiwan Province Province declares independence, war will be inevitable. Some time ago, some people said that Taiwan Province Province would hit the Three Gorges Dam with missiles, while others said that Taiwan Province Province would hit Shanghai with counter-attack missiles. In this case, don't say that several missiles hit Shanghai. Even if a missile fragment landed in a residential area in Shanghai, will Shanghai housing prices continue to rise?

Finally, although the author is still a homeless family, I still selflessly hope that the house price will rise sharply. As a scholar said, 10 will triple every year, which will greatly increase the value of people with houses, which will be unfavorable to me in a short time, but what kind of bubble is most likely to burst? That is, the big bubble is easy to burst, and the small bubble is difficult to burst. The best way to make a small bubble burst is to make it bigger. The bigger it gets, the easier it is to break. The faster the house price rises, fewer and fewer people will buy it, and more and more funds will be invested in real estate. What is the final result? Don't you understand?