Miscellaneous talk about property

The long-awaited "car going to the countryside" has finally arrived, but this time it is only for new energy vehicles.

It is understood that this activity to the countryside was jointly organized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce, and kicked off in Qingdao. Four special events will be held in Haikou City, Hainan Province, Kunming City, Yunnan Province, Chengdu City, Sichuan Province and Taiyuan City, Shanxi Province. The activity time is from this month to 65438+February. At present, 10 self-owned brand car companies, including BAIC New Energy, Changan New Energy, BYD, GAC New Energy and He Zhong Auto, have "responded positively" and launched 16 models, all of which have some comprehensive concessions, which is equivalent to car companies taking the initiative to make profits.

Obviously, this car goes to the countryside, not another car.

In my opinion, this activity is more like a formal warm-up and test. Both the government and enterprises are aware of the consumption potential of the rural market, but they have not systematically studied what kind of vehicles rural residents need; As for how to incite the rural market, the investment ideas of infrastructure and supporting services are even less clear-how far is the potential expectation from reality?

The only gratifying thing is that this issue has finally been discussed with this round of rural activities. Recently, the author listened to an online discussion organized by China Auto committee of 100, the theme of which was "Looking for a new driving force for the growth of electric vehicles in China", and the core was to discuss how to incite the rural new energy market. Here, I want to share my observations and thoughts.

0 1

New energy vehicles have great potential and many difficulties in going to the countryside.

Looking back on the 2009-20 10 round of cars going to the countryside, the state arranged a one-time financial subsidy of 5 billion yuan for farmers to scrap three-wheeled cars, buy light trucks and buy minibuses with a displacement of less than 1.3 liters. As a result, the automobile market has ushered in a blowout growth.

This process has ignited a number of minivan manufacturers, among which many car companies represented by Wuling have seized the upgrading needs of rural consumer groups and derived relatively low-end MPV and SUV models, which are a huge promoter of the expansion of the 20 13-20 17 automobile market. The core selling point of this kind of products is large space, and the price is around 40,000-70,000. This stage also helped car companies find a measuring ruler. Basically, the car purchase budget of rural residents is mostly concentrated in this range.

Of course, if there was no policy at that time, the above phenomenon was probably just imagination. Therefore, when the growth of the new energy vehicle market is weak, the potential of the rural market will always be tapped. But obviously, the rural market is no longer a virgin land. If we want to introduce new energy vehicles, we need to face many complicated problems.

First of all, how do new energy vehicles and low-speed electric vehicles PK?

According to relevant statistics, there are currently more than 6 million tricycles and low-speed electric vehicles in the entire rural market. Optimistically speaking, even if 5%- 10% consumers are willing to upgrade, they will create a market increment of not less than 300,000.

The problem is that the car purchase budget generally accepted by such consumers is about 40,000-50,000 yuan, but the current new energy vehicles cannot keep the cost so low, and the lowest is 50,000-60,000 yuan and above. Coupled with the economic slowdown this year, the disposable income of the rural population will also decline. How to persuade everyone to give up the low-speed electric vehicles above 65438+100000 and choose tens of thousands of expensive pure electric vehicles? And with a budget of 40,000-50,000, traditional fuel vehicles have many choices. ?

According to relevant research, rural residents pay attention to material benefits and durability, and their purchase intention is mainly agricultural transport vehicles with 0.5- 1 10,000 yuan, accounting for 3 1%.

Secondly, supporting facilities have not been popularized in rural areas, which is a problem that car companies cannot solve.

Imagine that low-tier cities and rural markets are more suitable for promoting new energy vehicles than first-and second-tier cities. Low residential density, the car can be parked in front of the house, which is more suitable for installing charging piles; The daily life radius of rural residents is also smaller than that of urban office workers. It is generally 5- 15 km, which can meet the needs of shopping, sending children to school or visiting relatives and friends. Therefore, even a pure electric vehicle with a battery life of about 200 kilometers can meet the needs of such people.

However, the difficulties reflected by the representatives of car companies are also obvious. The charging infrastructure in rural areas and other areas is weak, and the distribution network design system does not consider new energy vehicles from the standard. Only slow charging piles can be used in rural areas, and it takes 5-8 hours for a car to be full. This is a disguised requirement that consumers can only charge their cars when they are not in use at night-such a problem is beyond the power of enterprises.

Another problem is after-sales. Theoretically, pure trams have fewer parts and lower maintenance costs than fuel vehicles. However, the structure is different after all. At present, it is difficult to lay a dense enough maintenance network like traditional fuel vehicles, and the lack of maintenance technicians and parts makes new energy vehicles face great constraints in going to the countryside.

02

What kind of support do car companies want?

With so much potential and so many difficulties, what should we do? ? Financial support is already on the table. One of the links in this online discussion reached a very specific figure: if the state can provide a subsidy/replacement of 5,000 yuan per electric vehicle, it will greatly improve the acceptance of rural consumers and the promotion enthusiasm of enterprises. Zhao Xinzhi, Director of Market Research Department of Product and Business Model Innovation Center of BAIC Marketing Company, and Feng Zhongwei, Deputy General Manager of Marketing Service Center of Chongqing Changan New Energy Automobile Technology Co., Ltd. participated in this demonstration. ?

How is this amount derived? Both delegates reviewed the last round of the policy of cars going to the countryside: the state designated the range of vehicles, and the subsidy accounted for about 10% of the price of new cars, almost 3,000-5,000 yuan. The cycle was long enough, supported by "central finance+local support", and the effect was very good. However, Minister Zhao admits that this round of new energy activities to the countryside is more about "the government sets up the stage, and the enterprises sing the opera"-only the enterprises offer a replacement discount of 5,000 yuan (for tricycle/low-speed car users)+the final warranty, which cannot meet the price expectations of rural consumers. However, at present, enterprises will lose 20,000 yuan every time they sell an electric car, so it is difficult to reduce the cost and price unilaterally. He believes that if the government can cooperate with enterprises and share the cost of 1: 1, then there is still great hope to open the rural market.

Mr. Feng of Changan New Energy puts great emphasis on the demands of quasi-rural customers, especially the price point, and then refers to this price through the linkage between government and enterprises, and then pushes the subsidy back according to the cost of building a car and operating costs. He took his new car, E-Star, as an example. The development of this 50,000-60,000 yuan car is also the demand of low-priced consumer groups. If the price can be reduced to less than 50,000 yuan with the help of policy subsidies, the competitive advantage of pure trams will be more prominent than that of low-speed electric vehicles.

In addition to the problem of "money", the promotion and dissemination of new energy vehicles in rural areas is insufficient, and financial innovation and other issues have also been mentioned by many factory representatives.

03

Besides money, how much sincerity do you have to show?

In June 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were102,000 and104,000 respectively, down by 25.0% and 33 1% respectively. 1-? In June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 397,000 and 393,000 respectively, down by 36.5% and 37.4% respectively. Although it is predicted that the new energy market will pick up in the second half of this year, from the current situation, new energy vehicles are a national strategy. After the demand at the B end is gradually saturated, how to incite the demand at the C end has become a problem that has to be faced.

C how to treat new energy? Regardless of rural residents, as media people living in cities, they will notice the fact that the exposure resources of new energy resources are mostly concentrated in the new forces of making cars, because there are too many things that everyone likes to see, such as the change of capital, the personality charm of leaders, cool appearance, the interconnection of technologies, and of course some feelings. Undeniably, brands such as Weilai, Tucki and Ideality are also a force to promote the development of the new energy market, but their incremental space is also limited. It also subtly promoted the public's pursuit of long endurance, and even equated endurance with R&D strength. An executive in charge of the promotion of new energy vehicles in an enterprise has clearly told the author that this is definitely a one-sided misleading.

And he also vomited another thing, the safety awareness of electric vehicles. Compared with the spontaneous combustion of fuel vehicles, the probability of spontaneous combustion of electric vehicles is actually not as high as everyone feels, but once the spontaneous combustion of electric vehicles occurs, it will definitely attract reports from all parties. Unfortunately, almost every family has an accident, and these accidents will be repeatedly mentioned and strengthened for a long time. Moreover, when he visited the survey, he also found that many properties in the city did not "welcome" the owners to install charging piles, which brought a lot of troubles and concerns to users.

From this perspective, in addition to giving money, the promotion of new energy vehicles needs everyone to work together to solve cognitive problems, and the author thinks that the experience of "customer education" is actually lacking in China brands. In the past 30 years of rapid popularization of fuel vehicles, the work of market enlightenment was actually paved by overseas brands. Now, we need to do it ourselves. Who will take the lead? With a clear direction, there will be resources for centralized promotion. If new energy vehicles really want to enter the village, what kind of publicity should car companies and local governments do, what kind of products need to be developed, and what kind of supporting facilities are needed. I'm afraid this is really a long-term topic. The confidence lies in that no one knows himself better than China people.

I hope this new energy going to the countryside activity is a promising start. I hope that in the near future, we can hold greater sincerity to offset the chill.

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This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.