The transaction volume of second-hand serviced apartments in Shanghai is mixed, and the investment risks are superimposed.

The change of regional average price reflects the difference of transaction structure behind the transaction: in the case of sufficient or even excess primary supply in the region, the second-hand transactions that are eager to be carried out under the policy spring breeze are more opportunities from low-priced projects. Obviously, the investment in commercial and residential apartments is the same as that in housing, and the loop line and lots are still the premise of return.

After the "325" purchase restriction, office property apartments ushered in a hot market. According to the data of Shanghai Chain Home Research Institute, in the first half of this year, the number of serviced apartments in Shanghai landed in Jiading New Town was 380,000 square meters, and 63 18 sets were sold, with a turnover of 5.9 billion yuan.

Since the second-hand apartments are not divided separately, we can only look at the transaction changes from the overall office data. 20 16 in the second quarter, the total turnover in Shanghai was 20 15 sets, and only 3 19 sets were sold in the first quarter.

"Now buyers are asking to buy a first-hand property. The price of second-hand apartments depends on how the next home is calculated. If the last house pays taxes, the price will be high, and the converted second-hand price is not much different. " On July 29th, Xiao Liu (a pseudonym), an intermediary salesman of Jiading Xincheng Store, told Li Chen who came to consult that many buyers bought apartments on 20 14, and now they have earned almost 50% by selling them.

Xiao Liu believes that you can buy two apartments at the price you bought two years ago. However, now the second-hand apartments are very heavy and are beginning to look valuable. Many apartments take 3-6 months from listing to transaction. A serviced apartment in Lan Sen, Pudong was sold at a premium of about 40%. "If it is a house, the price will double in two years." She said.

According to the data of the same policy consulting and research department, as of July 27th, the stock area of office apartments in Shanghai was 6.5438+0.2484 million square meters (6.5438+0.590 million square meters at the end of March). According to the average de-chemical speed in the past three months, the market de-chemical cycle has been shortened to 6.68 months (654.38+0.6 months at the end of March). Under the market background of scarce supply of commercial housing and rapid price increase, the sales of apartment-style office buildings (small area and low total price) are booming and the prices are rising gradually.

The regional transaction volume and price are quite different.

Since the implementation of residential purchase restriction, Shanghai serviced apartment has become a substitute product in the residential market with the characteristics of unlimited purchase, unlimited loan, low total price and suitability for business and residence. The supply of residential land is decreasing year by year, which also makes the transition of serviced apartments more and more obvious. This makes the serviced apartment market in Shanghai develop in full swing in recent years, but it also faces problems such as large supply.

It is not difficult to see from the data provided by Shanghai Chain Home Research Institute that the first-hand stock of serviced apartments is relatively large. As of July 28th, there were 2026/kloc-0 serviced apartments in various regions and sectors in Shanghai, with a total construction area of 1.2484 million square meters. Among them, Nanqiao New Town in Fengxian District has the largest inventory,163,800 square meters, with 2,667 sets.

From the perspective of regional distribution, areas outside the outer ring, such as Jiading and Pudong, have large inventories. Luo, a senior analyst at Chain Home Research Institute in Shanghai, pointed out that the average price in Qingpu and other regions is relatively low at present, and the volume of rail transit will increase significantly this year in areas where rail transit will be opened in 20 17; However, in Fengxian and other areas, which are located in the outer suburbs and the lower rail is hopeless, the inventory squeeze is relatively serious.

Luo also believes that from the perspective of second-hand transactions, the transaction volume of office projects (including commercial and residential apartments) has been significantly boosted in the second quarter after "325". At the same time, the market demand in Jiading and Pudong is equally active in the second-hand market, but in Qingpu, Fengxian and other regions, the poor second-hand transaction just reflects that the demand has not been transmitted to the second-hand market, and the market value of regional commercial and residential projects remains to be confirmed.

It should be pointed out that after the New Deal, the second-hand transactions in Jiading and Pudong increased, but the average price dropped significantly. For example, in the first quarter, the average transaction price of apartments in Jiading area was 28,800 yuan/square meter, and in the second quarter, it was 1.370 yuan/square meter.

In the second quarter, the transaction price of commercial office buildings (including serviced apartments) in many regions dropped significantly compared with the first quarter. For example, the average price of Jing 'an District in the first quarter is 6 1.500 yuan/square meter, and it is 24,700 yuan/square meter in the second quarter; The average price of Changning District in the first quarter was 38,800 yuan/square meter, and in the second quarter it was 26,800 yuan/square meter; The average price of Fengxian District in the first quarter 1.96 million yuan/square meter, and in the second quarter 1.44 million yuan/square meter.

Qian Ning Luo pointed out that the change of average price reflects the difference of transaction structure behind the transaction: in the case of sufficient or even surplus primary supply in the region, the second-hand transactions that are eager to be carried out under the policy are more from the opportunities of low-priced projects.

From this, he judged that the return on investment in foreign apartments in the outer ring is not high at present. Under normal circumstances before the New Deal, the second-hand transactions in core areas such as Xuhui and Hongkou were relatively large, and the average price was also high. Obviously, the investment in commercial and residential apartments is the same as that in residential buildings, and the loop line and lots are still the premise of the rate of return.

The risks are getting bigger and bigger

The decline of second-hand transaction prices in many areas is warning that the investment value of serviced apartments needs to be reassessed.

At present, the rent level of apartments for sale is far lower than the monthly supply. For example, a LOFT serviced apartment of about 55 square meters in Hejing Fenghui, Jiading New Town, with a monthly rent of 2,800-3,000 yuan/square meter. According to the current market price of 850,000 yuan, plus taxes and fees of about 6,543,800 yuan, a loan of about 500,000 yuan is needed. Because the repayment period of serviced apartment is 10 year, the monthly repayment is about 5000 yuan. Obviously, there is a certain gap between rent and monthly payment.

A big data analyst pointed out to 2 1 Century Business Herald that the inventory of serviced apartments is still very large, accounting for less than 30% of the transactions. "If the office is counted as an apartment, or the apartment is counted as an office, the transaction ratio will be even less."

From the perspective of investment, risk accumulation is also manifested in: as a transitional product, the price difference between serviced apartments and houses is narrowing. 20151-July, the price difference between serviced apartments and houses has reached 2.94 million yuan, which is equivalent to the price of a set of commercial housing just needed. From June to July, 2006, the average transaction price of serviced apartments increased by more than 100% year-on-year, of which the average transaction price of serviced apartments in Changning District was 8. 1400 yuan/square meter, and that in Luwan District was 42,000 yuan/square meter.

According to the data of Shanghai Zhongyuan Market Research Department, since the "325" New Deal, the sales of commercial and residential buildings (mainly serviced apartments) in Shanghai have been active. From April to June, the transaction area of this type of property reached 676,800 square meters and 1 1606 sets respectively, increasing by 148.5% and 136 sets respectively. Judging from the proportion, from the cumulative data from April to June, the number of commercial and residential housing transactions in Shanghai accounted for 44%, compared with 15% last year. From April to June this year, the average commercial and residential price increased by 17.7% year-on-year, which was higher than the increase of 10.9% for commercial housing in the same period.

Since April this year, the price of serviced apartments has gradually increased, which is based on the tightening of residential purchase restrictions and the relaxation of credit. Even so, the transaction in the second-hand market is still bleak. Once the policy wind changes, the price fluctuation of apartments is even more uncertain.

Recently, some commercial land transfer conditions intentionally cut off the space of serviced apartments, clearly stipulating that the commercial part is self-sustaining, or serviced apartments and office buildings are self-sustaining according to the transfer period.

Take the plot 0 1C2-02 in Pingliang Community, Yangpu District, which was sold on July 28th as an example. The height limit is 60m, with office buildings accounting for 80% and commercial buildings accounting for 20%. All business offices must be self-sustaining for at least 20 years. If you build an apartment-style office property, you must be self-sustaining according to the number of years. On July 29th, Xuhui obtained 590 million commercial land in Xinzhuang, Minhang, with the following restrictions: commercial 10%, office 90%, of which commercial 100%, office 70%, self-sustaining according to the lease term, and the minimum office sales area is 500 square meters.

It is worth noting that when individual investors buy serviced apartments with appreciation space or overstock, some institutions and housing enterprises buy serviced apartments in Shanghai. For example, Gaohe Capital acquired Hyde Mansion in Changning District from New World China last year for renovation. It is understood that at present, the average price of projects for sale in this area is about 6,543,800 yuan/square meter, and according to relevant sources in Gaohe, Hyde Mansion will adopt the price strategy of entering the market at the reserve price.

(The above answers were published on 20 16-07-30. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )

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