The impact of the US financial crisis on China's economy, about 2,000 words.

In March 2008, Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States, went bankrupt, which triggered a financial crisis and quickly shook the world. In this worldwide catastrophe, China's banks and foreign trade industries have been impacted and affected to varying degrees. However, challenges and opportunities coexist. The financial turmoil not only hit China's economy hard, but also provided China's banks with an excellent opportunity to integrate into the world. This paper makes an in-depth discussion on the impact of the American financial crisis on China's economy. ?

First, nearly half a year after Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank in the United States, was bought by JPMorgan Chase because it was on the verge of bankruptcy in March this year, the surprising news broke out again on Wall Street: Merrill Lynch, the third largest investment bank in the United States, was bought by Bank of America for nearly $4.4 billion, and Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States, declared bankruptcy due to "abortion" in the acquisition negotiations. Before that, it was hard for anyone to predict that three of the top five investment banks on Wall Street would fail in just half a year. Some people use "once-in-a-century earthquake" to describe this crisis, while others use "financial hurricane" to describe this crisis. In either case, the storm shook the world at an extremely fast speed, and the China stock market, which is just across the Pacific Ocean from the crisis center, also expressed its pessimistic attitude at 2 o'clock. Huang, head and managing director of Asia-Pacific Economic and Market Analysis Department of Citigroup, said on the campus of Caijing on September 25th: "China is Shanghai Jiaotong University. In this worldwide catastrophe, China is doomed to be spared. ?

Second, the first is the impact on China's banking industry. Several major domestic banks have purchased securities products worth about $200 million from the US securities industry. Today, when the American financial industry is facing great difficulties, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers is tantamount to pushing Wall Street to hell, and the securities products purchased by domestic financial institutions are also facing the doom of huge depreciation or even liquidation. For example, Huaan Fund posted an eye-catching announcement on its website on September 16, prompting the investment risk of its QDII product "Huaan International Allocation Fund". Because Lehman Brothers Finance Company, a subsidiary of Lehman Brothers, is the principal guarantor of the structured capital-guaranteed notes held by Huaan International Allocation Fund, and Lehman Brothers Special Finance Company is the issuer of zero-coupon notes, one of the basic assets of capital-guaranteed notes, in extreme cases Huaan International Allocation Fund will not be able to open the normal redemption business, and Huaan International Allocation Fund may need to participate in bankruptcy liquidation and cannot fully recover it, and even the existence of the fund will have problems. Fortunately, although the subprime mortgage crisis in China directly affected banks and other financial institutions, Zhao Qingming, manager of the research department of China Construction Bank, said that from the published bank annual report, this part of the risk is controllable. Therefore, economist Jing Xuecheng pointed out that it is more noteworthy that the continuous deterioration of the subprime mortgage crisis has exerted psychological pressure on the China stock market. He said: "The stock market is the product of confidence. Now that the surrounding stock markets have plummeted, investors are under great psychological pressure. These have become a boulder, accelerating the downward trend of the stock index. The investor panic caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis has a strong contagious effect. "

Third, in addition to shrinking assets, the financial crisis will also lead foreign investors to sell off a large number of China assets, including the equity and creditor's rights of China's financial institutions and enterprises, which may exert a heavy downward pressure on China's foreign exchange and asset market, which is exactly what happened in South Korea last year. Foreign institutional investors occupy a prominent position in the Korean securities market. They suffered huge losses in the subprime mortgage crisis and had to sell Korean assets and withdraw their investment to save their home headquarters. According to the data released by Korea Stock and Futures Exchange on July 14, during the year ending from June 27th to June 28th, except for the net purchase in May this year, all the other months were net sales, with a total cash of $49.9 billion. Under the heavy selling pressure, while Asian currencies are still appreciating sharply against the US dollar, the Korean won has already begun to depreciate against the US dollar early. At the beginning of this year, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Korean won was still around 95 won pairs 1 US dollar. By September 1, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the US dollar had fallen to a 46-month low, falling below 1/won pair1US dollar for the first time in nearly four years, and the major Korean stock indexes plummeted. Fortunately, Lehman Brothers, a "world-recognized" and "first-class Wall Street investment bank", has not become a strategic investor of major domestic financial institutions, although it has become a practice in recent years to introduce foreign strategic investors. However, Lehman's equity investments in companies such as Kingdee Software, travel search website "Where to Go", Tianjin Sunac Group and Jinlong Group, a copper tube manufacturer, will face changes of ownership.

Fourth, the second is the impact on China's foreign trade industry. China's GDP can maintain rapid growth in recent years, which is inseparable from the pull of the troika of export, investment and consumption. The weak American economy, the worsening financial situation and the acceleration of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers have made today's American financial industry even more precarious, which is bound to have an impact on China's foreign trade exports. ?

The analysis report released by the General Administration of Customs on September 22nd pointed out that in the first seven months of this year, China's foreign trade exports increased by 12.5% and imports by 9.8% year-on-year. In contrast, China's nominal exports increased by 22.6% and its nominal imports increased by 3 1. 1% in the first seven months.

6. Since the second half of last year, the real export growth rate of China has declined. According to media reports, Long Guoqiang, Vice Minister of Foreign Economic Research Department of the State Council Development Research Center, submitted a report to the Ministry of Commerce in March this year. According to the report, since September 27th, the monthly real growth rate of China's exports has dropped from about 2% in the first half of the year to below 1%. The actual growth rate of exports in the first quarter of this year has dropped to 3%, which is very close to the situation when the Asian financial crisis broke out in 1998.

As the center of the financial turmoil, the import demand of the United States has fallen sharply. According to the report of the General Administration of Customs, in the first seven months of this year, China's exports to the United States increased by 9.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 8. 1 percentage point, which was the first time in 22 years that the growth rate of China's exports to the United States dropped to single digits. 6543810-July, the United States remained China's second largest trading partner, but its share in China's total import and export volume dropped from 16.2% in the same period last year to 12.8% at present. ?

8. The General Administration of Customs attributed the slowdown of China's exports to the United States to the negative impact of the subprime mortgage crisis and the continuous appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar. "We must be alert to the negative impact of the subprime mortgage crisis and pay close attention to its chain consequences." The General Administration of Customs pointed out in the report.

In fact, the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis is not limited to China's exports to the United States. At the beginning of the crisis, some China export enterprises turned to the European market. At the same time, China's exports to Japan remained strong, and the demand from emerging market countries also strongly supported the rapid growth of China's exports. However, when the crisis deepened, the economies of these countries were dragged down to varying degrees, and the import demand dropped significantly. ?

Ten, these factors have gradually emerged in recent months. China's exports to Europe dropped from a high growth rate of 3% to 4% at the beginning of the year to 22% in August. The situation of China's exports to Japan is similar, and the downward trend may continue. In addition to Brazil, China's exports to major emerging market economies also slowed down significantly, and its exports to Russia showed negative growth for the second consecutive month.

1 1. Therefore, Song Guoqing, a professor at the China Center for Economic Research of Peking University, believes that the global economic slowdown brought about by the depreciation of the US dollar and the deepening of the subprime mortgage crisis will have a greater impact on China's exports. He also stressed that because it is difficult for exporters to shift their industrial focus to external demand in a short time, they should pay attention to the rising transfer costs of these enterprises in the process of industrial restructuring and give corresponding policy support.

Twelfth, finally, is it a challenge or an opportunity for our country? There is no doubt that the American financial turmoil triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis will affect the world economy for a long time. As former Federal Reserve Chairman alan greenspan said, this is the worst financial crisis in the United States since 1. The current financial globalization makes the depth and breadth of this financial crisis exceed any previous financial crisis. New york, a world financial center that once owned several world-renowned investment banks and was in charge of the US financial industry 16 trillion US dollars, will probably give way to London or Tokyo. It can be said that the world financial structure may be undergoing tremendous changes. For China, the globalization level of domestic financial industry is relatively low, and its financial control and management ability is relatively weak. This may be the "good luck" for China to be marginalized by the financial crisis, and it is also an urgent problem for China financial institutions to overcome. ?

13. Terry, global CEO of Ernst & Young, believes that the financial crisis has provided a good opportunity for banks in China to integrate into the world. He has a positive attitude towards the recent overseas expansion of Chinese banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. He believes that the current M&A price has fallen sharply. If the acquisition target is in line with the strategic interests of Chinese banks, Chinese banks can consider going overseas with the help of intermediaries. However, he also reminded Chinese banks to learn from the lessons of their American counterparts and maintain a stable and good financial situation while expanding their business.