As the leader of the catering industry with the most serious epidemic, what does Haidilao rely on to support the market value of 654.38+07 billion?

Everything happens for a reason. Offline catering was most affected by the epidemic, but Haidilao did not drop much, perhaps because "Smart Money" understood the future expansion expectation of Haidilao with cash flow ability and brand bargaining power under the tide of offline catering. However, this judgment is also risky. If the epidemic situation is normalized and even the long-term demand is suppressed, even if the expansion cost is lower, Haidilao will be hit hard at the shrinking demand end and cannot support the market value of 654.38+070 billion.

In early 2020, novel coronavirus broke out and the catering industry suffered heavy losses. Haidilao has also closed its store, and will face a sharp decline in performance in 2020, but its share price is very firm.

If we calculate from the closing date of Wuhan, that is, 65438+1October 23rd, the closing price of Haidilao the day before is 32.5, and then the lowest price is only 27.45, with the biggest drop of 15.5%. In the same period, the biggest decline of Xiabu Xiabu was 46.4%, and that of McDonald's was nearly 50%. Compared with the trend of other catering enterprises, Haidilao is much stronger.

What is the basis for Haidilao to support the market value of 654.38+070 billion?

Others give discounts, and Haidilao raises prices.

After the outbreak of the epidemic, McDonald's, Saizeriya and other restaurants have launched discount packages to restore the bleak business of small profits but quick turnover.

However, Haidilao has quietly raised prices.

Half of the blood rushed from 16 yuan to 23 yuan, half of the potatoes rose to 13 yuan, a slice of 1.5 yuan, and a bowl of rice and 7 yuan. . . After a consumer exposed the bill of Haidilao, a public opinion criticizing Haidilao for "taking advantage of the fire" formed on the Internet. Haidilao immediately issued an apology letter and decided to restore the price of the dishes.

In fact, the price of Haidilao is rising almost every year, but this time it happened to encounter an epidemic and was caught by public opinion.

From 20 15 to 20 19, the per capita consumption of Haidilao was 9 1.8 yuan, 94.5 yuan, 97.7 yuan,10/.1yuan,/kloc-0. This is not because people are eating more and more, but the price of vegetables in Haidilao is rising slightly every year.

The bottom spirit of Haidilao's price increase comes from its superior turnover rate.

Turnover refers to the number of times a table is used every day. Hot pot restaurants generally reach three times a day, and the profit is good. In 20 19, the turnover rate of Haidilao reached 4.8 times/day, that is to say, one table entertained about 5 groups of guests every day on average. According to the calculation of a hot pot for 2 hours, there are 10 hours of people eating at each table in Haidilao shop every day.

The high turnover rate makes there always a long queue at the entrance of Haidilao, and it takes 2-3 hours at the peak. But the turnover rate in 20 19 years is only 2.6 times/day. If you go offline to observe, the business of sipping and sipping is much lighter than that of haidilao, which is also visible to the naked eye.

Surprisingly, consumers are still quite loyal to Haidilao. According to Jost Sullivan's survey, the dining experience of Haidilao ranks first among Chinese food brands in China. At the same time, among the customers who have eaten in Haidilao, 68.3% patronize Haidilao at least once a month, and 98.2% are willing to come again.

The catering market is clear, and Haidilao has a golden expansion period?

Market expansion expectation based on strong bargaining power is the core logic of Haidilao's expansion.

According to the Investigation Report on the Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on Chain Catering Industry in China issued by China Chain Store & Franchise Association, from March 2020 1, 5% of the sample enterprises have no cash to support their operations. 79% of the sample enterprises said that they could not survive for three months by relying on their own cash.

The outbreak of the epidemic has brought disaster to the small and medium-sized catering industry. Some restaurants reserved a lot of ingredients for the Spring Festival years ago, but now they are either sold at low prices or rotted in warehouses. Some restaurants have closed forever because they can't afford the rent.

Weak restaurants have fallen, but it has become an opportunity for high-cash retained enterprises to expand at low cost.

The internal demand for eating out has been stable for a long time, and the excellent epidemic prevention effect in China has improved this expectation. Moreover, from the micro-business environment, the closure of small enterprises leads to store leasing, the store construction market inclines to the buyer's market, the rental price cost and expansion cost will be temporarily suppressed, and the government-supported fee reduction and exemption will give "cash is king" enterprises a golden window period for low-cost expansion.

After 20 17, the expansion of Haidilao store was obviously accelerated. In 20 19, there were 308 new stores in Haidilao, and the number of global stores increased from 466 at the end of 20 18 to 768 at the end of 20 19, of which 7 16 were located in Chinese mainland and 52 were located in Hongkong, Macau, Taiwan Province Province and overseas.

At the same time of rapid expansion, the old Haidilao store maintained its original operating efficiency. The financial report shows that the same-store sales increased by 1.6% in 20 19, and the same-store turnover rate remained at 5.2 times/day, which was the same as that in 20 18.

In 2020, Haidilao plans to open another 300. Opening a shop can not only increase income, but also further reduce costs. On the one hand, if the purchase volume is large, it has more bargaining power for upstream suppliers, and the cost of ingredients is easier to control. On the other hand, after the density of stores becomes larger, the marginal cost of warehousing and distribution will be reduced, and the average cost of stores as a whole will also be reduced.

Cost advantage increases expansion expectation

Haidilao, which intends to continue to expand in 2020, not only has abundant cash flow in capital operation, but also has advantages in financing, and it is easier to obtain financial support from banks and the financing cost is lower.

According to Xinhua News Agency. Com, during the epidemic, CITIC Bank and baixin bank have provided credit lines totaling 265,438+billion yuan for Haidilao, and promised to increase support for their supply chain enterprises. On February 65, 438+2009, the first batch of loan funds of 865,438+billion yuan has been deposited in Haidilao's account.

In addition, Haidilao has stronger bargaining power than other restaurants in terms of rent because of its strong brand power.

According to the prospectus of Haidilao, in 20 17 years, the rental cost of Haidilao only accounted for 4.3% of the total cost. In the same period, the rental expenses of Xiabu Xiabu, Pizza Hut, KFC and Pizza Hut accounted for 12%, 16%, 3 1% and 34% of the total expenses respectively.

According to the financial report, the revenue of Haidilao in 20 19 was 26.56 billion, and the rental cost was 1 1 billion, accounting for 4% of the total revenue. In the same period, the total revenue of Xiabu Xiabu was 6.03 billion, and the rental cost was 850 million, accounting for 65,438+04% of the total revenue. For the same hot pot business, the revenue scale of Haidilao is 4.4 times that of Xiabu Xiabu, but the rental cost is only 1.29 times.

The rent advantage of Haidilao is obvious. The reason behind this is that Haidilao has a strong brand effect and reputation, which makes it use greater bargaining power when attracting investment in the business circle, and does not rely on the drainage of the business circle, but brings popularity to the business circle.

Haidilao also admitted that it has an advantage in rent, saying: "The proportion of our property rent and related expenses in revenue is lower than the industry average, mainly because of the high turnover rate and good performance of our restaurant. Our lease usually includes a rent-free period of at least three months to decorate and renovate the house. The rent of most of our leases is a fixed amount, which will gradually increase every two to three years according to the lease agreement. "

Or can shrinking demand support 654.38+070 billion?

However, some brokers pointed out that at present, the market's expectation of "the strong and the strong" in Haidilao is too strong, and the expectation of "the impact of the epidemic" is too weak, which is not fully included in the short-term impact of the epidemic.

For example, soochow securities directly gave a research report that "the stock price may not truly reflect the impact of the epidemic, and the profit forecast in 2020 will be greatly reduced", and pointed out in the research report that considering the epidemic situation in the core first-tier cities (Beijing/Shanghai), it is cautiously assumed that the store benefits (passenger flow/turnover rate) will experience 20%, 40%, 60% and 80% respectively from April to July, which will lead to

Soochow securities also pointed out the key point, that is, Haidilao tried to expand overseas in the past few years to break through the bottleneck of opening stores. However, at present, factors such as the impact of overseas epidemics and the slowdown of globalization have not been fully included in Haidilao's stock price expectations.

In addition, the normalization of epidemic prevention and control has a long-term and subtle influence on consumer behavior. For example, prevention and control behaviors such as checking body temperature and wearing masks are likely to be promoted in the next year or even several years, and consumers' impulses and enthusiasm will be suppressed, which is not reflected in the market value of Haidilao, which is as high as 65.438+070 billion.

What is more noteworthy is the huge loss risk of small probability events. Dario's all-weather strategy is called lying down to make money, but in the end, losing money in the same decline of stocks and debts taught us a lesson. The expectation of Haidilao did not take into account the possibility of the spread of imported cases and the return of viruses in winter, the slow progress in vaccine research and development and the collapse of overseas economy.

It should be pointed out that Haidilao still has a bright future even in most expectations, but the most worrying thing about Haidilao's market value is that it "does not reflect the fear of the epidemic".