In-depth analysis of real estate chips

Sunshine Co., Ltd. (000608): The annual net profit increased by more than 80%.

From 20 10 to 1-9, the company realized an operating income of 2.883 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 223.25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 496 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.16%; The basic earnings per share is 0.66 yuan.

The company is mainly engaged in real estate sales, commercial property leasing, asset trading services and operation management, accounting for 95%, 4% and 1% of the operating income respectively. The sharp increase in operating income is mainly due to the settlement income of real estate projects of about 2.7 billion yuan, mainly from Beijing Sunshine Shangdong Project; In the fourth quarter, the main source of profit was the rental income of commercial projects, and the performance elasticity was not great. The company expects the annual net profit to increase by 80- 103% and the basic earnings per share to be 0.64-0.72 yuan, which basically meets our expectations.

Accounts received in advance further declined. At the end of 2009, the accounts received in advance were 2.403 billion yuan, mainly for Beijing Sunshine Shangdong Project and Tianjin Wandong Ma Xiao Road Project, which were 65.438+74.9 million yuan and 622 million yuan respectively. At the end of the second quarter, the accounts received in advance were 365 million yuan, down 85% from the beginning of the year, because the projects of Beijing Sunshine Shangdong and Tianjin Wandong Ma Xiao Road were settled during the reporting period; The accounts received in advance at the end of the period were 654.38+0.39 billion yuan, down 94% from the beginning. In the next two years, the company will mainly settle in Qingdao Chengyang Project, Yantai Yinhe Project and Qingdao Qian Qian Tree Project. Due to the slow progress, the profitability of the project is relatively weak, and the performance is facing the risk of decline.

The project reserve scale is reasonable, and commercial real estate is gradually increasing. At present, the company can sell more than 6,543,800 square meters of commercial housing, which is distributed in Beijing, Tianjin, Qingdao, Yantai and other places. Responsible for the renovation of Jiuxian Bridge in Beijing and the first-class development of Tongzhou Project. If the second-level development qualification is obtained, the company's project reserve will be increased by 3.6 million square meters. Since the major shareholder Singapore government invested in Sunshine in 2007, the company's business goal has turned to commercial real estate, and it is planned to become a leading commercial real estate group in China within 3-5 years. At present, the company's leasable equity area is nearly 300,000 square meters, and its annual rental income exceeds 200 million yuan, a substantial increase compared with 2009. The major shareholder, Singapore Government Investment Company, has abundant real estate resources in China, which, according to incomplete statistics, exceeds 6,543,800 square meters. If this part of resources is injected into the sunshine, the comprehensive strength of the company's commercial real estate will leap to the forefront of the industry.

Long-term capital pressure decreased and short-term cash inflow decreased: the asset-liability ratio at the end of the period was 52.37%, down 65,438+08 percentage points from the beginning; Excluding the accounts received in advance, the actual asset-liability ratio was 565,438+0.2%, down 5.5 percentage points from the beginning of the year. The quick action ratio is 0.68 times, which is 0.52 times lower than the beginning. This is mainly due to the small sales return, resulting in a decrease of 2.4 billion yuan in cash inflow from operating activities compared with the beginning.

Maintain "overweight" rating. We predict that the company's earnings per share from 20 10 to 20 12 will be 0.7 1 yuan, 0.59 yuan and 0.48 yuan respectively. According to the company's recent closing price of 8.28 yuan, the corresponding dynamic P/E ratios are 12 times, 14 times and 17 times respectively. We predict that the main reason for the decline in performance in the next two years is the decrease in profits brought by residential projects. However, due to the possibility of explosive growth in the comprehensive strength of the company's commercial real estate, the investment rating of "overweight" is maintained.