Will the price of new houses in Panyu, Guangzhou finally fall?

Like many sensitive periods in the past, people pay more attention to the trend of housing prices. Judging from the national transaction situation, the transaction volume of the property market in first-tier cities continued to decline, and the land price continued to be auctioned or the reserve price was traded, indicating that the turning point of housing prices was approaching. The real estate tycoon, represented by Vanke, recently raised the banner of price reduction in several cities, and many projects followed suit to reduce prices by 10~20%. The reason for the one-sided transaction and price is that the end of the year is approaching, and the pressure on developers caused by regulation for a whole year is concentrated on generate. Developers believe that the property market bubble is dangerous and endangers the development destiny of enterprises, and "cash is king" is the best measure to tide over the difficulties, so they are forced to choose price reduction promotion. Some media even reported that developers have started to sell houses at zero profit in Beijing projects.

The national property market is like this, and Guangzhou is no exception. According to the monitoring and analysis data provided by SouFun.com recently, since the end of "Golden September and Silver 10", the average transaction price of first-hand residential online signing in Guangzhou has been riding a "roller coaster". At first, it plummeted, and because the transaction price in the city center soared to a good average price, the average price of new houses in Guangzhou fell to 10 190 yuan/square meter again last week. The downturn in the overall property market has made the impact of individual project transactions on the overall data more prominent. According to the statistics of SouFun Data Monitoring Center, the average online signing price of first-hand houses in Guangzhou fell to 1.0 1.90 yuan/m2 last week, a sharp drop from the previous month 14.83%. Except Zengcheng and Yuexiu, the average transaction price of other districts in Guangzhou last week was lower than that of the previous week. The biggest decline was in Conghua, where the average price dropped by 2,700 yuan/square meter, Panyu and Baiyun dropped by more than 1000 yuan, and Nansha fell by less than 10000 yuan.

Panyu new house price

The trend of Beijing property market seems to be a weather vane for the national property market. 1On October 23rd, Jinghua Times reported that on June 5438+0 1, with the opening of Times Street in Longhu, Tongzhou East Asia yi pin Pavilion, Majuqiao and Sheng World Garden, the Beijing property market once again entered a new wave of low prices. Some readers even broke the news that "Beijing Pixel" launched a 50% discount promotion, and the Beijing property market has entered a rapid price reduction channel, and the storm of deep price reduction began to sweep across the Beijing property market.

The situation of the national property market seems to be a foregone conclusion: bubble pressure appears, cash is king in the risk period, and price reduction and promotion will be promoted, but entering the price reduction channel will trigger a stronger wait-and-see atmosphere. Of course, everything is unexpected. Perhaps Panyu is still a special case of China real estate market. To see the trend of housing prices in Panyu, we must pay attention to several preconditions:

First, the overall development trend of the region determines the future housing price level. After Panyu entered the post-Asian Games era, the development of Guangzhou South Railway Station, Guangzhou New Town with Asian Games Town as the core, South China Wanbo Center with Chimelong Happy World as the core, and Guangzhou International Convention and Exhibition Trade City entered the stage of full implementation. Coupled with the deep cooperation between Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province attaches great importance to the development of Nansha, which is located in the core of the Pearl River Delta. Panyu, which has a close geographical advantage with Nansha, will take a ride on the basis of accelerating its expansion to the south. In the long run, the value of housing will correspond to its status and economic strength.

Second, changes in current transaction data imply changes in house prices. Although the transaction has shrunk in the short term due to the pressure of restricting purchases and loans, the house price in Panyu has not been substantially lowered since it entered the "Golden September and Silver 10" this year, and the average transaction price has been around10.5 million yuan/square meter. Observing the transaction data of Guangzhou Green Jiayuan online signing, although Panyu's sales items have not been on the top ten list for several trading days, last week (165438+1October14 ~165438+1October 20th), Experts believe that although the marked price in the advertisement of a single sales item has dropped significantly, it is still only a means of promotion, and the actual transaction price is not that low. However, the sales price of the new Yunshui Blue Bay last weekend was less than 1 10,000 yuan, which is not comparable to other projects. Obviously, Panyu's project has not fallen behind.

Third, the quality of the project determines the composition of future housing prices. Almost all the developers of Panyu Xinshang real estate project are well-known enterprises that occupy a place in China, and the environment and housing quality they create are also their core competitiveness in winning the market. Therefore, in the future, the commercial housing projects in Panyu will still be dominated by aristocratic luxury houses, like the overall image of the Southern District. Such housing quality is naturally comparable to affordable housing, and the so-called value for money is one of the pricing basis of housing prices.

Fourthly, whether the Wang Di project is opened or not determines the rise and fall of regional housing prices. Regulation has once again caused Wang Di a real embarrassment. The 7282 yuan/m2 Wang Di project has been idle for two years and has not started construction. Will it be taken back again like Wang Di before? It seems that urban construction group is not without worries. If the Wang Di project continues to be developed, the next two residential projects with a price of about 6,000 yuan/m2 will also be developed as scheduled, and the future price will definitely be higher than the projects currently on sale. The possibility of falling house prices in Panyu is almost negligible.

Fifth, the stalemate of second-hand housing prices shows that holders are waiting to see the changes in housing prices. Taking Hellenborg as an example, the price of the second-hand house in the early stage of staircase room reached10.2 million yuan, and the elevator room reached10.3 million yuan/square meter. Because the owner is optimistic about the future and expects to loosen it, he sold it under the condition of purchase restriction. I'm afraid it's hard to buy it at the current price, but there is no pressure on the holding link, so he intends to hold it for a long time. Since then, house prices have not come down.

To sum up, the stable trend of housing prices in Panyu is the mainstream in the future, and the slight increase and decline will only be an episode. For those who just need property buyers, they can choose cost-effective projects in the market. As for the buyers who want to invest upstairs, they can only test their mentality and their ability to break through the purchase restriction policy.

(The above answers were published on 20 13-08-23. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )

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