Transforming the market of 5 trillion old residential areas: the profit model of social capital intervention to be solved

According to the government work report, 39,000 old urban communities will be rebuilt this year, supporting the installation of elevators and developing various community services such as catering and cleaning.

As an important task of shed reform, the renovation of old residential areas is considered to be an important starting point for "stabilizing investment" and "promoting people's livelihood" this year, and it is also regarded as a new opportunity for real estate and related upstream and downstream industries.

The transformation of old residential areas is also referred to as "old transformation", but it is two different concepts from the "old transformation" of old city demolition and transformation in the past. The transformation of old residential areas basically does not involve demolition, but mainly focuses on the maintenance and improvement of infrastructure and public facilities, while the transformation of old cities and urban renewal involve a lot of demolition and reconstruction.

Peng Kong, director of the Research Center for Sustainable Residential Areas of the School of Architecture of Tsinghua University, believes that the market space for the renovation of old residential areas may reach 5 trillion yuan, which can directly boost the upstream of traditional real estate industries such as steel, building materials, cement and environmental protection, as well as the downstream industries such as home improvement and home appliances. In addition, infrastructure related to 5G, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet and Internet of Things will also be driven.

"The transformed old residential area should not be an island, but should rely on the new infrastructure to realize the networking and digitalization of the future residential area, so that the architectural space can form an organization with synergistic effect." Peng Kong told 2 1 Century Business Herald.

Analysts pointed out that although this industry has broad prospects, in practice, it still faces practical problems in terms of profit model and social capital enthusiasm, and it needs to be promoted at all levels of policy, enterprise and society in the future.

The "youngest" in the core area

Old residential area refers to "before 2000, backward public facilities affected the basic life of residents, and residents had a strong willingness to transform". Old residential areas are usually built by the government and units before the unit reform. Compared with 1998 housing reform, the public facilities are backward and the supporting facilities are uneven.

According to the preliminary statistics of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, there are nearly10.6 million old houses, involving more than 42 million households, with a construction area of about 4 billion square meters.

The market space for the transformation of old residential areas mainly exists in large and medium-sized cities.

According to the data of Ke Holdings Inc. Dictionary, the number of registered communities in 20 key cities is153,900, of which 59,600 are old communities with a house age of more than 20 years, accounting for nearly 40%.

In terms of cities, the three cities with the largest number of old communities are Shanghai, Chengdu and Beijing, and the number of old communities is 14000, 5200 and 5 100 respectively. Judging from the proportion of old residential areas in the total stock, Shanghai, Jinan and Beijing are the highest, accounting for 665, 438+0%, 49% and 47% respectively.

Old communities are generally concentrated in the old city. Take Beijing as an example, more than 80% of the old residential areas are located in the "six districts of the city", and nearly 60% of the old residential areas are in Xicheng.

Old residential areas have small living space and poor environmental support. Judging from the transaction data of shells in the past five years, nearly half of the old houses in Beijing are below 60 square meters. In Beijing's old residential areas, over 60% have no elevators, 16% have no central heating, and 20% have insufficient greening rate (below 30%). These proportions are higher than the city average.

RealData believes that the old residential areas in Beijing are mainly located in the core area, and the lot value is high. However, the current poor living conditions have led to a greater decline in housing prices in old residential areas in the downward cycle, resulting in a vicious circle of circulation difficulties and waste of resources.

The market space for the transformation of old residential areas also exists here.

The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development initially divides the renovation of old residential areas into three categories: first, it guarantees basic facilities, including the maintenance and improvement of municipal infrastructure such as water, electricity, gas and roads; Matching of garbage sorting facilities; Install elevators, etc. The second is to upgrade infrastructure, which can be equipped with parking lots, activity rooms and property houses. The third is to improve the public service content of facilities such as providing for the aged, helping the elderly, cultural rooms, medical care, helping meals, housekeeping, express delivery, etc., and improve basic public services and basic public environment.

According to the research data of Mingyuan Real Estate Research Institute, it is conservatively estimated that the renovation of old residential areas in China needs at least 4.54 trillion yuan.

Guo Jin Securities pointed out that, as a "connecting rod" to the center of the stage, the old reform does not involve the compensation for house demolition and resettlement, but more is to repair the existing houses, transform the infrastructure such as water, electricity and optical fiber in the community, and improve the surrounding supporting service facilities. Although the transformation of old residential areas has a weak pulling effect on the overall investment in real estate, it still has an obvious pulling effect on the demand in related fields.

According to the agency's estimation, the market space of waterproof materials in the field of consumer building materials can reach 23.6 billion yuan under the instigation of the old reform; The market space of coatings is 510.80 billion yuan; The pipe market space is 27.3 billion yuan.

Solutions to "People's Livelihood Problems"

In recent years, the transformation of old residential areas has been mainly based on financial funds. From the current practice, in addition to the central financial subsidies and local government special debts, bank credit is also an important source of funds for the old reform.

On April 14 this year, the executive meeting of the State Council called for the establishment of a mechanism in which the government, residents and social forces should reasonably undertake reconstruction funds, with subsidies from the central government and special loans from local governments to encourage social capital to participate in reconstruction operations.

For social capital, the biggest problem in the transformation of old communities is the profit model. Because the old houses will not be demolished and rebuilt, there is no possibility of making a profit by selling new houses; In the future, a large amount of money invested in newly installed elevators, newly built medical facilities for the elderly, roads and other public facilities can only be repaid by property fees and parking fees.

Generally speaking, the enthusiasm of social capital to participate in the transformation of old residential areas is not high at present. In the eyes of many investors, low profit rate and long investment return period are the main commercial difficulties faced by the transformation of old residential areas. Peng Kong believes that the main reason is that there is no clear business model, and there is no clear relationship between supply and demand of products and services and service standards.

Peng Kong said that the renovation of old residential areas is a livelihood issue. "To come up with a business model for people's livelihood issues, it must be supported by low-interest funds, which is not exactly the same as the logic of real estate development. If there is no capital leverage and low-interest loans, the return on the transformation of old communities will be difficult. "

Peng Kong said, promoting the development of the old-reformed industries needs many efforts. Owners need to understand that the renovation of old residential areas is not a welfare act subsidized by the government, but a commercial act supported by the government. If you want to get a better life, you must participate and pay; As an enterprise participating in the transformation, it must be patient enough to provide products and services that really create value for end users; In terms of policy, the government should not only provide low-interest financial support, but also change the extensive management and charging methods of old communities and strive to realize the value of residents and enterprises.

Social capital represented by housing enterprises is more willing to invest in old city reconstruction and urban renewal projects.

The arrival of the era of stock houses and the scarcity of land resources in first-and second-tier cities have prompted housing enterprises to increase land reserves through old reforms. Vanke 20 17 increased the layout of "urban renewal" and actively expanded to second-and third-tier cities. Country Garden also stated in 20 17 that it is necessary to increase investment in the old reform and regard the old reform as "one of the main development directions of the four first-tier cities".

Han Yizhiku pointed out that the enterprises currently involved in the transformation of the old city are mainly large developers and financial housing enterprises (real estate funds), and these two main bodies have their own advantages. "Housing enterprises rely on the industrial chain advantages of real estate and have obvious advantages in the transformation and construction of comprehensive projects; Due to its strong financial strength, real estate funds often operate in a combination of light and heavy assets in the old reform, which has certain advantages in capital and operation. "