After the termination of normalized nucleic acid testing, a large number of testing institutions will fall into financial crisis.

On the day when the normal nucleic acid detection point in Guangzhou was removed, a sanitation aunt was still used to riding a bicycle to the familiar nucleic acid point, waiting for her were many people who were as overwhelmed as her. The staff shouted: "No more nucleic acids in the future."

In the past three years, there have been more nucleic acid detection points than public toilets. Making nucleic acid has become the same demand as "extending life". Behind this, the listed companies of nucleic acid detection business disclosed billions of revenues, and many companies succeeded in IPO.

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But when everything suddenly ended, behind the huge profits that the outside world thought, the whole nucleic acid testing industry seemed to have only one chicken feather left. An investment banker told the interface journalist that although social cognition is the concept of nucleic acid detection, the company has earned a lot of money in the past three years. But there is an opposite view in the industry. In fact, the performance problems of nucleic acid testing enterprises, especially the problem of high accounts receivable, will be concentrated in 2023.

The outbreak of unpopular industry

COVID-19's demand for nucleic acid detection came into being overnight. Its original idea is simple-find out every virus.

At the beginning of 2020, it is not easy to do nucleic acid testing-a person can only do nucleic acid testing if he has symptoms such as fever and goes to a fever clinic. Due to insufficient supply, nucleic acid detection once became the initial "big problem" in Wuhan epidemic prevention and control.

But in the summer of 20021,nucleic acid detection has penetrated into people's lives. From large-scale detection to normalized full-scale detection, and then to "15 minute nucleic acid circle". However, people are vague about this sense of penetration. It suddenly appears in life and naturally becomes a part of life.

According to the data of the national COVID-19 nucleic acid detection information platform, as of May 2022, there were1/kloc-0,300 medical and health institutions providing nucleic acid detection services in COVID-19, with/kloc-0,530 technicians and a total detection capacity of nearly 57 million tubes/day.

Nucleic acid detection belongs to in vitro diagnosis industry. IVD can be divided into biochemical diagnosis, immunological diagnosis and molecular diagnosis. Nucleic acid detection is one of the molecular diagnostic techniques. In fact, before the epidemic, molecular diagnosis was a complicated and insignificant technology.

"Before the outbreak of COVID-19, the industry basically thought that molecular diagnosis was a technology that was too expensive and difficult to popularize. It has been unprofitable for a long time, and I don't know where its prospects are. " A person from a primary market investment company told the interface journalist.

However, after the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic, molecular diagnosis ushered in an unprecedented application and development opportunity. With the increasing demand for "inspection", the upstream and downstream markets of the whole industry have grown substantially.

The upstream of nucleic acid detection industry chain is mainly the producers of antigens, antibodies, enzymes and coenzymes, polymer plastic consumables and diagnostic instruments; The middle reaches are manufacturers of sample collection and preservation reagents, nucleic acid extraction reagents and reagents; Downstream are hospital terminals, third-party testing institutions and third-party laboratories. Among them, the upstream reagent raw materials and testing equipment are still dominated by overseas giants such as Roche, Siemens, Abbott and Illumina. There are only a few enterprises in the domestic camp, such as Novartis, Peng Fei Bio and Huada Zhi Zhi. Domestic nucleic acid detection enterprises mainly focus on midstream reagent production and downstream detection.

According to the financial report of A-share listed companies in the third quarter of 2022. 67 nucleic acid detection companies * * * achieved revenue of 2510.60 billion yuan and net profit of 72.8 billion yuan.

Among them, Dean Diagnostics and Jintian Medicine represent the current situation of the third-party laboratories of offline sampling and testing institutions. From 20 19 to the first three quarters of 2022, Dean Diagnostics achieved revenue of 8.453 billion yuan, 10649 million yuan, 13082 million yuan and 15629 million yuan respectively. The net profit was 347 million yuan, 803 million yuan,165438+63 million yuan and 2.428 billion yuan respectively. In the same period, Jinyu Medical achieved revenue of 5.269 billion yuan, 8.244 billion yuan, 65.438+065.438+94.3 billion yuan and 65.438+0208 billion yuan respectively; The net profit was 402 million yuan, 15 1 billion yuan, 2.220 billion yuan and 2.448 billion yuan respectively.

It can be seen that although nucleic acid detection has greatly improved the income of sampling and testing institutions, the actual profit is not high.

Compared with sampling and testing, the profits of midstream reagent manufacturers are obviously greater. For example, from 20 19 to the first three quarters of 2022, Mingde Bio achieved revenue of 1.8 1 billion yuan, 959 million yuan, 2.830 billion yuan and 7.470 billion yuan respectively; The net profit was 41525,800 yuan, 469 million yuan,1410.30 million yuan and 3.838 billion yuan respectively. Wanfu Bio achieved revenue of 2.072 billion yuan, 28. 1 billion yuan, 33.6 1 billion yuan and 4.696 billion yuan respectively; The net profit was 387 million yuan, 634 million yuan, 634 million yuan and 65.438+0.24 billion yuan respectively. Cape Bio achieved revenue of 729 million yuan, 65.438+35.4 million yuan, 2.673 billion yuan and 4.259 billion yuan respectively; The net profit was 65.438+47 million yuan, 363 million yuan, 852 million yuan and 65.438+48.8 million yuan respectively.

Among them, Daan Gene is one of the few companies involved in upstream equipment, midstream reagents and downstream detection. From 20 19 to the first three quarters of 2022, Daan Gene achieved revenue of 1.98 billion yuan, 53.41billion yuan, 7.664 billion yuan and 9.335 billion yuan respectively. The net profit is 92 18 180000 yuan, 2.449 billion yuan, 36 1800000 yuan and 49100000 yuan respectively.

Testing institutions that can't receive money

However, with the abrupt end of normalized nucleic acid detection, various places have declared "unnecessary nucleic acid". Some investment bankers believe that in 2022, some nucleic acid detection companies will repay all the money earned in the previous two years because of overload operation.

She believes that from the perspective of the secondary market, the growth of performance has given the nucleic acid detection concept company the opportunity to speculate on the stock price. Manufacturers of antibodies, enzymes and coenzymes, polymer plastic consumables and diagnostic instruments, sample collection and preservation reagents, nucleic acid extraction reagents and reagents do make money, but the days of third-party testing laboratories located downstream may not be so good.

For example, in the upstream of the industry, the gross profit margins of Peng Fei Bio, which mainly uses nucleic acid reagents as raw materials, were 92.8 1%, 94.02% and 88.43% from 20 19 to 202 1 year respectively; Among the midstream enterprises, the gross profit margin of Daan Gene 202 1 COVID-19 nucleic acid detection kit still reaches 88%; Among the downstream enterprises, the gross profit margin of Jinyu Medical 202 1 third-party medical diagnosis service is only 47.2%.

In fact, nucleic acid testing is an unprofitable and thankless business for some downstream third-party testing laboratory enterprises. In fact, the downstream profitability is directly proportional to the business scale. Because COVID-19's testing reagents have long been included in centralized procurement in China, the profit margin is extremely limited, and only leading enterprises in the industry can make money.

According to the analysis of the above-mentioned investment bankers, many third-party testing laboratories that do nucleic acid testing have low thresholds, and they can operate as long as they can get qualifications, but it is difficult to break through the detection volume and cannot form scale effects to make money.

More importantly, even the large-scale third-party testing laboratory enterprises in the industry are now facing the risk of excessive growth of accounts receivable, which may lead to large impairment. Taking A-shares as an example, the proportion of accounts receivable of listed companies in several third-party testing laboratories has increased significantly.

By the end of the first three quarters of 20021220.8 billion yuan, including 7.433 billion yuan of accounts receivable, accounting for 60.89% of operating income, up 66.65% year-on-year; Dean Diagnostics realized revenue of 65.438+0.563 billion yuan, including accounts receivable of 65.438+0.0754 billion yuan, accounting for 68.8% of operating income, up 76.75% year-on-year.

In contrast, middle and upstream enterprises basically have no pressure to pay back the money, and often the accounts are delivered to downstream enterprises only when they arrive at middle and upstream enterprises.

Under the pressure of repayment, some nucleic acid testing companies are in court with buyers. According to the civil ruling issued by Beijing Higher People's Court1October 29th, Beijing Main Medical Inspection Co., Ltd. sued Yongding Town People's Government in Mentougou District of Beijing and Mentougou District Maternal and Child Health Hospital in Beijing, demanding that the other party pay the inspection fee to the main company according to the price of each person 180 yuan.

Smaller nucleic acid kiosks have also begun to be transferred at low prices. From Baidu's platforms such as Love Purchasing and Idle Fish, it is found that some nucleic acid kiosks are even resold at a "floor price" of 3,500 yuan or even several hundred yuan.

A number of listed companies with the concept of nucleic acid detection said that they not only face the problem of falling prices, but also face the risk of shrinking their business, which will make their business return to normalization before the epidemic.

For example, Wei Lan Pharmaceutical said, "The business will not have a big impact. The company will do a good job in other detection services of the epidemic and will strengthen the nucleic acid detection business. " In an interview with the newspaper, Daan Jean said, "This year's business will not be affected. The impact will be next year, depending on the adjustment of specific policies. " Huada Gene said, "Nucleic acid detection is not the direction of our development, and the business will return to the state before the epidemic. Adjustments began this year, such as expanding overseas business. "

In fact, some companies have begun to plan to retreat. On June 5438+065438+ 10, 2022, the price of several detection reagents for Daan Gene was reduced by nearly 70%, which started the market price war in the post-COVID-19 era, and Sheng Xiang Bio successively acquired and expanded its business in many directions.