Real estate graduation thesis

China's real estate market is full of lies from real estate agents, mistresses, economists, some government officials, real estate agents, and some helpless words from house slaves. In my blog, I have refuted most of the nonsense that house prices will continue to rise:

1, the scarcity of land lies in: of course, land is scarce, but RMB is even scarcer. If the house price rises only for this reason, it will increase by 654.38+ten thousand times, which still cannot change the fact that land is scarce. In fact, any commodity is scarce. Iron ore and oil are used less and less.

2. The lie that urbanization drives housing prices up: China's urbanization is inevitable, but can farmers afford urban commercial housing? Therefore, to urbanize, house prices will inevitably plummet.

3. The lie that the appreciation of RMB drives the rise of house prices: the annual interest rate of US dollars is 2.46 percentage points higher than that of RMB, that is, RMB appreciates by more than 2.46% a year, so it is profitable to exchange US dollars for RMB, and the currency exchange fee should be deducted. If you make a profit through real estate speculation, you have to deduct the deed tax (at present, it is 3% in Beijing, 6% when buying and selling, and 1.5% in Shanghai). The scope stipulated in the provisional regulations on deed tax is 3%-5%, and if it is lower than 3%, it will be restored to the legal level at any time), business tax (5% within five years), income tax and agency fee. At the same time, the RMB appreciated against the US dollar, but depreciated against the Euro. Are foreign funds as stupid as some stupid people in China who don't like to think deeply? How many years ago or now did foreign capital buy real estate in China? Is it profitable to sell or buy now? As it happens, today's Oriental Morning Post reported on July 18, 2007 (the actual completion of this article is at least three months) that "the data released by Shanghai Economic and Trade Commission shows that the contract value of foreign-invested real estate in Shanghai in the first half of the year is 1 108 million US dollars, down by 4 1.03% year-on-year". What do you mean? Think about it.

4. Lies of International Metropolis: Now many people, including some people of insight, think that Shanghai is an international metropolis. That's hilarious. How many standards does Shanghai have to meet as an international city and metropolis? Go and compare it. Even if you don't know, don't you want to think about how many income levels of people around you have reached the standards of an international metropolis? New york is an international metropolis. Last year, Wall Street's dividend exceeded the profits of all A-share listed companies. What about Shanghai? Do 10% people earn more than 65438+ 10,000 yuan a year?

These rebuttal articles are all in my blog and widely reprinted by various websites and forums. You can get them by searching my name.

China house prices will definitely fall, for sure! For detailed reasons, please refer to my "40 Reasons for the Falling House Prices in China", which is about 15000 words. This is the most comprehensive and well-founded article I know about falling house prices in China. I have also seen many reasons why house prices are bound to rise. The n reasons why house prices can't fall are basically complaints, or no reasons at all, or eggs on a wire rope. Moreover, judging from the recent rising trend of housing prices in China, the probability of a hard landing of housing prices and an economic crisis is quite large. Lenin said: We must have the courage to face the ruthless truth. The regulation of house prices in these years is actually air conditioning. On the one hand, local governments are obedient; On the other hand, the central government is afraid of the terrible consequences of the bursting of the bubble and has no courage to face up to this problem. It's useless, a pustule Just because you don't look doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It will get bigger if it is not crowded. When you finally have to squeeze it, it will cause more pain.

The road of falling house prices in China will inevitably go through three stages: excessive rise, price stalemate and continuous decline.

1. Excessive housing price increase stage: the price of any commodity is determined by its value and affected by the relationship between supply and demand. Therefore, the situation that the price is obviously higher than the value cannot be sustained, and the price bubble must burst. Marx said: once there is 20% profit, capital will be active. Therefore, when the market price keeps rising, it attracts a lot of funds to participate in the speculation. Some people who actually need a house buy it in advance to avoid buying it at a high price in the future and buy it at a low price, so the price will definitely rise above the reasonable price and exceed the value. This is the same as the stock market. Here you can refer to the theory of inertia. The longer the production cycle of a commodity, the more funds the society invests, and the more difficult it is to change its rising or falling state. It's hard to stop when it goes up Therefore, although China's housing prices have been in a bubble state for a long time, the substantial increase in the supply of the property market cannot be realized in a short time, and the massive intervention of real estate speculators, property buyers and bank loans is enough to promote the continuous rise of housing prices.

2. The stalemate stage of housing prices. At this time, the supply is far more than before, and the social purchasing power has been consumed in large quantities, so it is difficult to form new purchasing power in the short term; Because house prices no longer continue to rise rapidly, real estate speculators and people who only need in the future are no longer eager to enter the market, because they no longer expect house prices to rise as before, but wait and see; People who can afford it can't afford it because of rising house prices; The collection of business tax and income tax greatly limits the investment in buying a house; The introduction of the policy of restricting foreign investment has reduced the demand of foreign devils; Bank interest rates have been raised several times, increasing the cost of buying a house; The increase of bank deposit reserve ratio inhibits the growth of bank loans; The surge in the stock market diverted the funds entering the property market; Restrictions on large-scale housing have led to more houses being built on the same land ... and other factors. Although a single factor can't make the house price drop sharply, the quantitative change eventually becomes qualitative change, and the house price will always enter a stalemate.

3. The stage of falling house prices. At the beginning, the factors that pushed up housing prices no longer worked, but the factors that pushed down housing prices began to work. If the original interest rate was very low, now the interest rate has increased; It turns out that real estate speculators are profitable, but after the house price is in a stalemate, there is no obvious profit, and at the same time, they have to pay business tax and income tax, so the supply originally prepared for real estate speculators is greatly redundant. Real estate speculators with houses in their hands have declined slightly or stopped rising because of the increase in loan repayment, and there is no profiteering expectation of soaring house prices, and there are cash flow expenses such as property fees, which leads some wise real estate speculators to choose to sell and increase the market supply. The purchasing power originally purchased in advance has been overdrawn in advance; Once house prices begin to fall, people with housing needs will delay buying because they expect it to be cheaper in the future, which will further reduce market demand ... In short, high house prices will have no choice but to consume and start a long and sustained decline.

What I want to explain here is that it is unrealistic and impossible to expect a sharp drop in house prices in the short term. In Japan, for example, house prices have been falling for about 15 years, with a decline rate of about 70%; From 1997, China and Hongkong dropped for about 6 years, with a decrease of 65%. China Taiwan Province Province fell by about 10 years, and the decline also exceeded 50%; For example, Guangzhou fell for eight consecutive years before it began to rise in about 2003. The price inertia of housing commodities is far greater than other commodities. Once the upward trend is formed, it will continue to rise for many years, with an increase of more than double. Once it falls, it is impossible to fall into place in a month or two. No matter what commodity it is, its rising and falling time are commensurate. The reason why the house can't skyrocket and plummet in a short time is because the production cycle of the house is relatively long. A property will be sold for two or three years, so the supply on the market can't change greatly in a short time. After supply exceeds demand, it will not be a matter of months, so if supply exceeds demand for a long time, it can also rise for a long time. This has been repeatedly verified in China, the United States, Australia, Europe and Japan. Decline, because the supply declines, will not be realized immediately. Most of the buildings already under construction will be built, instead of choosing uncompleted residential flats with huge losses. The state of oversupply cannot be changed immediately, and prices will continue to fall.

Moreover, the prices of some commodities can rise and fall quickly, mainly because of the short production cycle. If the price of hula hoop in a place rises twice a month because of some publicity effect or star effect, the manufacturer will work overtime 24 hours at once, and other manufacturers will also build production lines. It is not difficult to increase the market supply twice in a month, and supply will soon exceed demand, so it is normal for prices to drop by 80% in a month.

When I was in War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression, some people could not see the inevitable result of War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression's victory, so they chose to be conquered people or even a traitor. They either became cannon fodder of Japanese devils on the battlefield, or were settled down after the end of the Anti-Japanese War, typical shameless Yoshiko Kawashima. Now some people, who don't understand the development law of the real estate market, think that house prices will only go up and not down, and choose to be house slaves. In the face of major decisions, if we don't try to explore the objective laws of things, understand the objective situation in detail, and think independently, the result may not be like what Li Ka-shing said, "People will not necessarily die if the house price rises, but people will definitely die if the house price falls", but it is inevitable to lose everything. Just like the land price in Beihai, Guangxi, has dropped from 6.5438+0 million yuan/mu to 50,000 yuan/mu. How can people who buy high not break the money?

After the publication of the "Positive and Negative Textbooks on Financial Management" last time, the young man who had a lot of money and income but still rented a house in Shanghai met him online two days ago and gave him a link to the article. He said he had seen it. In addition, I mentioned that I received several Japanese people in the last two days. One of them is the boss. Naturally, he is rich. However, after watching the exhibition from People's Square, they went to the hotel on Henan Road and actually walked for more than 20 minutes. In their opinion, never take a taxi where you can walk. I mentioned several examples repeatedly in my blog: Bill Gates took the car away because he thought the parking fee was expensive; Li Ka-shing is wearing the shoes he bought seven years ago and the common seiko watch. Soros bought a suit forty years ago (I forget the exact time). It is strange that the poor in China, with a per capita savings of only 14000 yuan (note that about 0.5% of the population in China occupies nearly 60% of the wealth in China), are actually buying a house. Personally, I think that although I can buy a smaller and worse house in Shanghai in full at present, I will not buy it even if I have 654.38 billion yuan. Even if the house price drops by 50%, my probability of buying a house is less than 30%. )

After the house price has dropped by about half, please don't scold the bank, the Ministry of Construction and the director, because they don't have a knife rest around your neck to force you to buy a house.