Looking through the physical examination form of three red lines: 17 Housing enterprises keep "original files", and debt reduction does not mean low debt.

The debt reduction action that has attracted much attention is finally reflected in the performance of listed real estate enterprises.

According to the debt reduction table of the top 50 real estate enterprises with sales in 2020 compiled by He Xun Real Estate, as of April 14, there are about 33 listed real estate enterprises that have disclosed their performance and have data. The results show that, compared with the first half of the year, in 2020, the asset-liability ratio of real estate enterprises excluding advance receipts decreased by an average of 22 percentage points, the net debt ratio decreased by 3 percentage points, and the short-term cash debt ratio remained stable.

According to the indicators of the three red lines: the asset-liability ratio of real estate enterprises excluding advance payment is not more than 70%, the net debt ratio of real estate enterprises is not more than 65,438+000%, the "short cash debt ratio" of real estate enterprises is less than 65,438+0, the number of real estate enterprises touching the three red lines is reduced from 5 to 2, and the number of "zero touch line" real estate enterprises is increased from 4 to 65,438+02.

However, it has become the norm for the real estate industry to grow by high leverage. Change is not easy. The data shows that as many as 17 housing enterprises have not realized the downshift, and there is still a certain distance from the standards of the three red lines.

Source: Han Yi Zhiku RealData.

"Zero contact line" housing enterprises plus 8 Hui Jin jumped from third gear to "green gear"

Among the three core indicators of debt reduction, the indicator with greater pressure on housing enterprises is the asset-liability ratio without advance receipts. By the end of 2020, the average index of 33 real estate enterprises was 75%, down 2.7 percentage points from the first half of the year, but still exceeding the red line standard. In addition, the average net debt ratio of housing enterprises was 69%, down 22 percentage points from the first half of the year, and the average short-term cash debt ratio 1.6 was the same as that of the previous year.

A brokerage analyst told He Xun Real Estate that it is difficult to improve the net debt ratio and the asset-liability ratio without advance receipts, especially the latter, which involves the adjustment of the whole balance sheet, while the short-term debt ratio takes less land or sells quickly, so as to increase monetary funds and realize index optimization.

Through the improvement of the above three debt indicators, all housing enterprises have handed over their transcripts. The data shows that eight housing enterprises have entered the "zero touch line" green file, and the number of housing enterprises in this camp has increased from four in the middle of last year to 12. At the same time, about 12 housing enterprises have realized the downshift, accounting for 36%.

12 housing enterprises are listed as the green files of the top 50 housing enterprises.

Source: Han Yi Zhiku RealData.

Obviously, the capital advantages of leading central enterprises are obvious. China Shipping, China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou (00 1979) have always maintained a "zero-touch line" with little debt pressure. As a private housing enterprise, Longhu Group is relatively self-disciplined in financial performance. The financial capabilities of these four housing enterprises are at the leading level in the industry.

In terms of debt improvement, the improvement speed of 100 billion housing enterprises and quasi-100 billion housing enterprises is the most obvious. The data shows that among the eight housing enterprises that entered the green file, there are six housing enterprises with sales of about 1000 billion yuan, and the sales completion is good. For example, the target completion rate of Shimao Group in 2020 is 100%.

In addition to sales, the above-mentioned housing enterprises also reduce leverage and debt by promoting sales, rapid turnover, selling equity, introducing strategic investors, cooperative development, and spin-off. Take OCT as an example. In 2020, the company transferred the 1 1 project including Chongqing Yuelan Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., with a total turnover of 6.89 billion yuan. Frequent asset transactions have accelerated the withdrawal of cash, and OCT has also entered.

Last year, real estate enterprises spun off their real estate companies to go public in Hong Kong. According to previous statistics of He Xun Real Estate, as many as 16 real estate companies will be listed in 2020. The listing of property companies can increase the rights and interests of real estate companies, thus reducing debts. Representative cases include ocean service, Jinke service and Shimao service.

Regarding the debt reduction performance of housing enterprises, the above analysts said that most housing enterprises are still in the original file, and many housing enterprises may raise the first file. This progress in debt reduction is more in line with external expectations.

However, for housing enterprises with obvious debt reduction, there is a voice outside that the data may be flooded. A capital market person who did not want to be named believes that debt reduction is a test of the ability of housing enterprises to adjust their statements. It is not excluded that some companies that are not strict will adjust their statements centrally at the end of the year and transfer some on-balance-sheet liabilities to off-balance-sheet through financial adjustment. However, he stressed that debt reduction is the mainstream trend of the industry, but the pace may be different.

17 housing enterprises failed to "downgrade" R&F, and Evergrande remained in the "red file".

Although the debt ratio of most housing enterprises shows a downward trend, it is not easy to truly realize the downshift and finally reach the standard of three red lines. There are also 17 housing enterprises that have not achieved leapfrogging.

No 17 companies in the top 50 have achieved downshifting.

Source: Han Yi Zhiku RealData.

Previously, the industry believed that the failure of debt reduction in the real estate industry for many years was mainly caused by the subjective will of housing enterprises, but this time the willingness of housing enterprises to reduce debts was very strong. As can be seen from the above figure, among the real estate enterprises that have not been downgraded, the liabilities of R&F Real Estate and China Evergrande have dropped the most, with the former's net debt ratio dropping by 46 percentage points to 65,438+030% and the latter's net debt ratio dropping by 40 percentage points to 65,438+059%.

Li Silian, chairman of R&F Real Estate, said at the performance meeting that if the price is right, we will continue to sell assets, including the equity of some development projects. By the end of 2020, the inventory of R&F Group will be 60 billion, which will be actively realized in the future, in line with the reduction of the three red lines.

However, due to the high debt ratio of R&F Real Estate and China Evergrande, even though the debt reduction is great, it has not been downgraded and is still in a "red file". According to the planning of China Evergrande, as of June 30th, 20021year, the net debt ratio was reduced to below 100%; By 202 1, 65438+February, 3 1, the short-term cash debt ratio will reach 1 or above; By 2022, 65438+February 3 1 day, the asset-liability ratio will fall below 70%. By then, the "three red lines" will be completely downgraded within the three green lines.

In addition, the remaining 15 housing enterprises have not achieved a reduction in debt ratio, and leading housing enterprises Country Garden and Vanke are impressively listed. The insiders believe that this is mainly related to the development rhythm of the enterprise itself. The premise of debt reduction is to maintain stable performance and gradually transition from relying on debt growth to operating growth. The pace is different. Take Country Garden as an example, the total land acquisition of Country Garden in 2020 is 1, 565438.

Vanke management said at the performance meeting a few days ago that the debt ratio excluding pre-sales accounts was 70.4%, which was 0.4% lower than 70%, and it was very confident to return to the green file in the first quarter.

In addition, it is worth paying attention to Sony Holdings, which is the only real estate enterprise in TOP50 that has been upgraded from "yellow file" to "orange file" because the cash short-term debt ratio is not up to standard. Xu Jinye, chief financial officer of Xinli Holdings, said that he is confident to meet the green file requirements in the next year to a year and a half.

Does debt reduction mean low debt?

Although the "three red lines" are for debt reduction, the debt level is not as low as possible.

Yu Liang, Chairman of Vanke's Board of Directors, said at the performance meeting that Vanke does not pursue low net debt ratio. 40% of the line has been adhered to for a long time in the past, but we do not pursue too low. If it is sometimes lower, it is because Vanke is waiting for an opportunity.

Undoubtedly, the concentration of land supply is an opportunity. Yu Liang said that the change of land supply requires great flexibility of funds. If the funds are not very flexible, there will be great pressure in front of centralized land supply. Vanke's net debt ratio is 65,438+08.1%,which may be an opportunity to wait for market changes.

Yu Liang stressed: "We don't necessarily intend to maintain such a low net debt ratio, but only maintain a reasonable net debt ratio."

At present, Country Garden has two debt indicators to maintain a safety line, and the asset-liability ratio excluding advance receipts is slightly higher, which is at the yellow file level. Country Garden's debt reduction is not in a hurry. Its management said that the entire debt scale of the company will gradually decline in 20021and 2022, and it is confident that it will return to green before June 30, 2023.

There are still many housing enterprises like Vanke and Country Garden. While high-debt housing enterprises are busy reducing debts, housing enterprises with reasonable debt structure seek greater development opportunities. As Shao, CEO of Longhu Group, said, the resources of the industry in the future will be more and more inclined to excellent and stable enterprises.

According to the data of the Central Reference Institute, in March of 20021,1-,the number of residential land transactions in 300 cities nationwide was 1463, a year-on-year increase of10%; The total transfer fee was 776.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of18%; The average premium rate is 17%, which is 5 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.

Housing enterprises with reasonable debt structure are seizing the opportunity to actively deploy. According to the List of Land Acquisitions of National Real Estate Enterprises in March 20021and1-released by the Central Reference Institute, all the top real estate enterprises in 10 are state-owned or state-owned enterprises, with obvious development advantages, except Sunac China and Binjiang Group (002244).

Source: Central Finger Hospital

The era of relying on debt to achieve scale growth has ended, the growth rate of the superimposed real estate industry has slowed down, and the "involution" of the real estate industry has quietly begun. The industry believes that with the intensification of industry differentiation, well-funded housing enterprises can seize land in core cities and achieve rapid turnover of high-quality assets, while housing enterprises with high debts or weak financial capacity will undoubtedly be gradually marginalized.