Can you earn 500 thousand a year by selling a house

Will you buy a house that earns 500 thousand for nothing?

Sizhe

WeChat official account: Sizhe Chuangfu, fund investment/fund manager.

Will you buy a house that earns 500 thousand for nothing?

Those things in the investment column

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This year's housing prices, particularly worth mentioning is the phenomenon of a second-hand housing price upside down.

A friend of mine participated in the subscription of a real estate in Ningbo Vanke a few days ago, and spent 2.5 million yuan to buy a new house, but the price of second-hand houses around it has been sold to 3 million.

He went up to me and told me that he had earned 500 thousand for nothing.

I searched the surrounding house prices, and it feels really.

Take Ningbo Village where I live as an example. The new high-end refined decoration property Hanlin Jiadi launched by Vanke has an average price of about 65,438+09,500, while the average price of Vanke City, an old property not far away, is 23,000,65,438+030, so the total price difference is about 400,000-500,000.

It stands to reason that first-hand houses should be more expensive than second-hand houses. Why?

The main reason is that the government has imposed a severe price limit. Clearly the demand exceeds the supply, but the price is not allowed to rise.

At present, almost all the first-and second-tier cities in China have a relatively large upside-down phenomenon, and the upside-down ratio is generally between 10%-20%.

Calculated by a suite of 2.5 million, if it is upside down by 20%, the new house will earn a net profit of 500,000.

Therefore, people who are qualified to buy a house in first-and second-tier cities should cherish this "room ticket", which is a 20% discount coupon won by the government for us.

In other words, why should I say that it is making money on paper?

Because it is a bit difficult to make short-term shots.

Now many houses on the market are auction houses, which are basically delivered in more than one year.

However, if the house is sold within 2 years after delivery, a very high business tax will be levied. Although this cost can be passed on to buyers, it also leads to the fact that most buyers only consider second-hand houses that have been used for more than 2 years, making it even more difficult for sellers to sell.

In some areas, the policy is to restrict sales, and they can't sell for two years, so there is no liquidity at all.

Therefore, for investors, it still depends on how the follow-up housing market goes. Risk-free arbitrage is very difficult.

But these have no effect on those who just need it. Anyway, they won't sell the house in the short term. Buying a new house at a discount of 8-10% is a rare opportunity.

To put it bluntly, the government has liberalized the price limit, and the new house has increased by 10-20% per minute. If you buy it again, you will lose money.

In other words, is it really suitable for investors to invest in real estate now?

To judge the trend of house prices, we usually use a data M2 (that is, broad money, M2= cash in circulation+corporate demand deposits+time deposits+other deposits).

Generally speaking, M2 is the money supply in the market.

China's real estate market is also a Qian Ku. Only when the country desperately prints money will house prices continue to rise, so it is very reliable to measure the trend of house prices with M2 broad money.

Historically, the trend of housing prices in first-and second-tier cities in China is almost proportional to M2.

What is the growth trend of M2 in China now? The following is the trend chart:

. . The speed of printing money is getting slower and slower, even reaching a record low, only 8.3%. You know, in the past 60 years, the average growth rate of M2 was as high as 16.4%!

Therefore, in the next few decades, it is impossible to expect house prices to be as prosperous as in the past.

There is also an equally reliable indicator here, that is, the difference between the M2 growth rate and the long-term loan interest rate.

Since M2 is closely related to housing prices, once the growth rate of M2 is much higher than the long-term loan interest rate, everyone can buy a house with brainless loans. Anyway, the house price will definitely outperform the loan interest rate and make a long-term stable profit.

Once the growth rate of M2 is close to or even lower than the long-term loan interest rate, it will be dangerous, because the increase of house prices can't outrun the interest rate. At this time, the more loans you borrow, the more serious the loss.

What is the trend of this difference, as shown in the following figure:

In the past, the interest rate of housing loan was only 5-6%, but the growth rate of M2 was as high as 15-20%, and it remained above 10% most of the time, so the prices of first-and second-tier real estate naturally rose.

But what is the value now? 3.4%, what's more, the medium and long-term loan interest rates in most cities are 20% or even 30% higher than the benchmark, so the price difference is actually lower.

Once the benchmark interest rate is raised again, or the M2 growth rate drops a little, the M2 growth rate-medium and long-term loan interest rate will be less than 0.

Then at this time, if you invest in real estate with a loan, it will be difficult for the increase in house prices to cover the interest rate of the loan. At this time, the more you borrow, the greater the loss.

So now that we have reached the key node, buying a house may not be a good investment product.

Although this turning point will not come in the short term, because the government can completely change this phenomenon by controlling the medium and long-term loan interest rate and M2 growth rate, it also shows that the country is currently adopting a policy orientation of tight currency neutrality and deleveraging, and then trying to get rich by investing in real estate with leverage will probably become a dream.

For more details, please pay attention to the official account of WeChat, Philosophy of Thinking and Creating Wealth.

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Edited on 20 18-08-0 1

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(of the rising sun) bright

17

The quality of the new house. . . . It's not as good as a second-hand house

Mr. Jin

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Buy the country to send money instead of buying a fool.

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