Nanning Jian' an property

In the past year of 2020, the trend of house prices has been very low, which also gives people hope that house prices will fall. But many people who are bullish on housing prices believe that housing prices cannot fall. Even during the economic crisis in 2008, house prices only experienced a brief decline, and then rebounded. In addition, at 20 14 and 20 15, when everyone was not optimistic about the house price, the house price doubled again. Therefore, these people who are bullish on housing prices believe that although the current housing price trend is sluggish, it is only a short-term correction, and housing prices will soon pick up. For example, Dong Pan, a professor at Beijing Normal University, believes that the current housing prices are not high, and it is a personal reason to be unable to afford a house. House prices will continue to rise in the future, and Beijing house prices can rise to 800,000 yuan/square meter in the future.

But now, according to the state's regulation and control policies on the real estate industry and the current relationship between supply and demand of housing resources, the current house price is really high, and there is no basis for the house price to continue to rise. With the gradual return of housing to the residential property and "no speculation in housing", the current inflated housing prices will definitely gradually return to a reasonable level. Then if house prices fall in the future, the first line will fall to 20,000 yuan/square meter, the second line will be 9,000 yuan/square meter, and the third and fourth lines will be 4,000 yuan/square meter. Is it possible? Let's take a look together.

First, housing prices in first-tier cities fell to 2,000 yuan/square meter. There are only four first-tier cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. At present, the housing prices in these four cities are basically above 60,000 yuan/square meter except Guangzhou, and the housing prices in many cities are around100,000 square meters. It can be seen that the housing prices in these four first-tier cities are really high, especially in Beijing and Shenzhen. The ratio of housing prices to income has exceeded 30, which is already a seriously high level.

From 2065438 to September 2006, the state began to regulate the real estate industry, and the property market in these four first-tier cities was very standardized. Especially in Beijing and Shenzhen, in 20 17, house prices immediately showed a considerable correction, but Beijing's house prices did not relax because of the regulatory policies, so the trend of Beijing's house prices has been steadily and slowly adjusted over the years, especially in 2020. After the price adjustment of 20 17 in Shenzhen, the "luxury tax" was abolished in the Shenzhen property market, which led to another speculation in the Shenzhen property market. Until 2020, speculation became serious and house prices rose rapidly. Of course, the Shenzhen property market will eventually face the tightening of regulatory policies, and in the next few years, Shenzhen housing prices will be adjusted back.

As for the property markets in Shanghai and Guangzhou, although the housing prices are very high, the regulatory policies have been relatively tight, and speculation in the property market is not very serious. Shanghai's housing prices are supported by the population economy, and the trend of housing prices is stable, so it is a bit difficult to continue to fall in the future. The current housing price in Guangzhou is still relatively low, which is the lowest among the four first-tier cities. At present, the average house price in Guangzhou is between 30,000 and 40,000, and the house price gap is very large. The house price in Tianhe can even reach 80,000 or even 65,438+million, and the house price in Huadu is even lower than 20,000. Therefore, the house price in Guangzhou is 20,000/m2, but the geographical location is not good.

In fact, according to the current economic development level, population inflow level and the relationship between housing supply and demand in first-tier cities, the housing demand in first-tier cities in the future will continue to increase with the increase of population. As the city with the best housing price in China, the probability that the housing price of these first-tier cities will fall back to 20,000 yuan/square meter in the future is very low. Therefore, many people must consider the housing prices in these first-tier cities before going to work. It's really difficult to buy a house.

Then house prices in second-tier cities fell to 9000 yuan/square meter. There are now 45 second-tier cities in our country. Although there are new first-tier cities, they are still former second-tier cities. Among the capital cities of these 45 cities, Changsha and Shenyang are the cities with the lowest housing prices. Now the average house price in Changsha is lower than 10000 yuan/square meter, so the house price in Changsha has met the requirements. In other second-tier provincial capital cities, the average house price has exceeded 10,000, and Xiamen, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other cities are already very high. There are also second-tier cities in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, where house prices are also high and rising.

In my opinion, second-tier cities are the cities with the largest room for rising house prices in China in the future. House prices in these cities will continue to rise with the continuous inflow of population, so it is difficult to fall back to the price of 9000 yuan/square meter. According to the prediction of the famous economist Li Xunlei, population migration has changed from "rural to urban" to "small city to big city". Nowadays, the pressure of life in first-tier cities is already great, and many people prefer to choose their hometown capital cities or developed cities to work and live. For example, Wuhan in Hubei, Zhengzhou and Luoyang in Henan, Qingdao and Jinan in Shandong, Nanjing and Jiangsu in Jiangsu. These cities have developed rapidly in recent years. Therefore, with the continuous inflow of population in these cities, house prices will rise slowly because of the increase in housing demand. More importantly, the housing price bubbles in these cities should be smaller than those in first-tier cities and third-and fourth-tier cities, which is also the reason why urban housing prices are relatively reasonable at present.

Finally, house prices in third-and fourth-tier cities returned to 4000 yuan/square meter. In my opinion, for those third-and fourth-tier cities with underdeveloped economy, continuous population loss and shrinking resources, house prices will return to 4,000 yuan/square meter in the future. Because the property market bubbles in these cities are much bigger than those in many second-tier cities, and the housing prices in second-tier cities are supported by population, economy and industry, what about the housing prices in these third-and fourth-tier cities? Nothing, and the housing prices in these cities are not low. For example, the housing prices in many economically underdeveloped small counties are around 7,000 yuan per square meter, and the housing prices of individual buildings have also exceeded 10,000 yuan, which may be higher than the prices of some suburban buildings in neighboring provincial capitals. Therefore, at present, the property market bubbles in these third-and fourth-tier cities are very large, and the housing prices have seriously deviated from the income level of local residents.

With the end of the monetary resettlement policy of shed reform, the property market in these third-and fourth-tier cities has lost a lot of capital inflows and a large number of relocated households with strong purchasing power. After that, the property market in most third-and fourth-tier cities lost its last support point. With the continuous outflow of population, people will be less optimistic about housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities, and houses in third-and fourth-tier cities will become more and more difficult to sell. When the population flows out to a certain extent, some houses in third-and fourth-tier cities will definitely not be sold or rented. At that time, house prices in third-and fourth-tier cities will fall all the way to 4,000 yuan/square meter, which should be a very simple matter.

Summary: Just like Fuxin, Hegang and Yumen today, the property market in some third-and fourth-tier cities such as the three northeastern provinces and Sichuan and Yunnan is slowly rising. Therefore, for these three predictions, only the prediction that house prices in third-and fourth-tier cities will fall back to 4,000 yuan/square meter will be realized.