Six most explosive dark horses of tomorrow

FIYTA (000026) In-depth study: Watch leaders can expect to benefit from foreign consumption and return to future growth.

Category: Company Organization: Zheshang Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Mary Date: 2020-09- 15.

Fiyta is a leading watch enterprise in China, and its watch agency business and its own brand business are in the leading position in the industry. In the second quarter, the strong recovery of the domestic luxury market benefited the company's watch agency business, while the return of overseas luxury consumption and the formation of domestic consumption habits provided long-term development momentum. In addition, as a leader in the field of domestic watches, the company is expected to benefit from the continuous recovery of domestic consumption, and we expect the company's performance in the second half of the year to improve beyond expectations.

Key points of investment

Unexpected factors: the return of luxury consumption and the formation of domestic consumption habits of Chinese people injected growth momentum into the company's watch agency business, and the private brand business benefited from the recovery of consumption in the second half of the year.

The market thinks that the epidemic will reduce residents' income, domestic consumption will not be too Big bounce, and the watch industry will also be affected. However, 1) the domestic luxury goods market took the lead in recovery, and the restrictions on outbound travel led to the return of overseas luxury goods consumption, and the domestic consumption habits of Chinese people gradually formed. As an important category of luxury goods, famous watches have also ushered in a period of prosperity and development. 2) The company is the leader in watch agency business, with its subsidiary Hengjili ranking second in the country, retail network and after-sales service centers all over the country, and its performance is expected to improve rapidly. 3) With the normalization of epidemic prevention and control and the release of domestic consumption potential, the company's own brand business is expected to benefit from consumption recovery. 4) The company's profit in the second quarter improved significantly. The net profit of 2020Q 1/Q2 is-1297/907 10000 yuan, and the earnings per share is -0.03/0.2 1 yuan/share. It is expected that the development trend will continue in the second half of the year, and the performance will increase significantly beyond market expectations.

Logical deduction path beyond expectations: Investors generally believe that China people mainly buy Swiss watches in Europe or Hongkong, and domestic consumption is limited by the negative impact of the epidemic. However, the actual 1) outbound travel restrictions have accelerated the return of overseas luxury consumption, and consumers are gradually forming domestic consumption habits. 2) The purchasing intention and purchasing power of the core consumers of luxury goods have not changed, and the demand will be released quickly after the epidemic situation is controlled. 3) China has entered the normalization stage of epidemic prevention and control, and the strategy of economic internal circulation will promote the sustained recovery of domestic consumption, and the domestic watch industry will benefit from the growth trend of consumption.

Catalyst: Overseas luxury consumption returns, and the second half of the year is coming soon.

Profit forecast and valuation: FIATA is the only A-share listed company in the watch industry. We believe that under the double benefits of the unexpected rebound of the domestic luxury goods market and the policy-driven consumption backflow, the watch agency business will usher in a new round of development opportunities, and the private brand business is expected to benefit from the recovery trend of consumption, and the company's future performance growth and profitability will be improved. We predict that the company's revenue will reach 4.31/56.1/65.8 million yuan in 2022, and the net profit will be 2.4/3.7/450 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 30.4x/19.5x/16.2x.

Risk warning: the risk of worsening epidemic situation; The return of luxury goods is less than expected; This policy has not achieved the expected effect; Consumption recovery is lower than expected.

Ziguang Co., Ltd. (000938): the leading supplier of new network and the digital enabler of China industry.

Category: Company Organization: Guo Jin Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Luo Lu Date: 2020-09- 15.

Investment logic

5G, the cloud computing industry broke out, and the policy-driven accelerated the digital transformation of traditional industries. The company is expected to become an industrial digital enabler: in 20 19, the proportion of digital economy in China's GDP increased from 14.2% in 2005 to 36.2%, and the CAGR was 54.7%. However, it still lags behind countries such as Britain and the United States, and there is still broad room for development in the future.

We predict that the overall growth rate of the enterprise network and IT equipment market where Xinhua San is located will be 15%, and it will rise to $55 billion by 2023, of which cloud computing CAGR is about 30%. 5G, cloud computing, and AI bring data and traffic to expand market space, and macro policies clarify the direction of digital transformation and the importance of "new infrastructure". Ziguang's strategic layout of "cloud-network-end-core" for many years is expected to usher in development opportunities.

Software-defined network (SDN) and scenario-based applications are inevitable trends. Software capabilities and deep customer channel resources have built the company's core competitiveness. Technologies such as SDN make hardware white-box and network deployment more flexible, reduce the difficulty of operation and maintenance, save costs, and develop faster than hardware. IDC predicts that the global SDN market will reach $654.38+03.76 billion in 20021year. Software capability determines the long-term market position and profitability of manufacturers.

Competitive advantage of the company: 1) Inheriting Huawei's R&D gene, the products of traditional network and new network (SDN) have strong competitiveness, and their share is stable in the top two; 2) Leading scene application services; 3) The deep customer relationship and channel resources brought by the global sales system and state-owned assets background. In 19, self-owned brand servers will open up overseas markets, which will help increase IT distribution revenue, and overseas markets will become a new driving force for the company's revenue growth.

The introduction of strategic capital, the deepening of the layout of 5G and cloud computing, and more industrial expansion: Tibet Ziguang Communication, the controlling shareholder of the company, transferred 17% shares, or introduced strategic investors to focus on IT equipment and services; The application of 654.38+02 billion yuan for private placement has been approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. In 2-4 years, it will mainly invest in research and development of cloud computing (4 billion yuan), research and development of key chips and equipment of 5G network (2.8 billion yuan) and construction of ICT smart factory (654.38+06.8 billion yuan). In the future, the scale of enterprise network and cloud computing in China will be larger and larger. We believe that the company, as a leading supplier in the industry, has room for growth beyond the industry average, and the overall revenue growth rate exceeds 65,438+05%.

Valuation and investment advice

We use the segment valuation method to evaluate the company. Among them, Xinhua III will maintain a growth rate of about 15% in the next three years. It is predicted that the company's overall revenue in 2020-2022 will be 62.37 billion yuan/72.40 billion yuan/84.88 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the mother will be 265.438+300 million yuan/2.49 billion yuan/3.00 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.74 yuan /0.87 yuan /65.438+0.05 yuan respectively.

danger

Shareholder reduction; Industry competition has intensified; 5G promotion failed to meet expectations; Sino-US trade friction has deepened; Overseas market expansion is not up to expectations; Managing risks; Coronavirus pneumonia-19 epidemic continues to affect overseas demand.

Hongbaoli (002 165): There are bright spots in the three main businesses, and the leader of PO integration is ready to go.

Category: Company Organization: Caitong Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Yu Xiaobo Date: 2020-09- 14

Rigid foam polyether: product differentiation is often overlooked, and the company ranks first in the domestic market. Its main competitive advantages include: (1) advanced monomer polyether technology and a variety of; (2) Actively research and develop according to the individual needs of downstream customers, and provide technical support and system solutions, such as rapid demoulding technology. With the strengthening of the company's global competitive advantage and market position, the company's processing fee model also has room for growth in profitability, and the gross profit margin is expected to continue to increase.

Isopropylamine: The company relies on the world's leading supercritical construction technology, cost, scale and service advantages to compete with Dow and BASF. In recent years, the sales volume of isopropanolamine has increased rapidly, mainly because triiso and modified isopropanolamine have obvious advantages in the field of cement additives and are gradually replacing triethanolamine. In addition, the company also actively develops new applications of "one difference and two differences" to further expand the comprehensive competitiveness of isopropanolamine business.

PO+DCP: The company is the only enterprise in the world except Sumitomo that has successfully industrialized the CHPPO process. We are optimistic about the profitability of the company's CHPPO process. The SM profit of PO/SM has been difficult to guarantee, while the profitability of HPPO is still very poor, and there is no stable supply of hydrogen peroxide. Judging from the actual operation, the company's load promotion is also relatively smooth. Using benzyl alcohol as an intermediate to produce DCP not only makes up for the shortcomings of traditional DCP process, but also saves part of the hydrogenolysis recovery reaction of benzyl alcohol, saving material and energy consumption. We judge that the company has been able to creatively separate waste from waste, and the profitability of DCP project may exceed expectations.

Investment suggestion: We predict that the company's net profit in 2020 will be/21.51.242/27.4 billion yuan, and EPS will be 0.25/0.40/0.46 yuan, corresponding to the current PE price of 23.0/ 14.3/65438. The competitive advantages of the company's three main businesses are remarkable, and the R&D and transformation ability of its own technology are lacking. The production of PO enabled the company to complete the leap of industrial chain and profit. For the first coverage, the company will be given PE of 202 1 year 18 times, 7.2 yuan as the target price, and a "buy" rating.

Risk warning: the demand for polyether and isopropanolamine is less than expected, and the start of new projects is less than expected.

Dezhan Health (0008 13): Expand non-belt market sales and return to the high growth channel.

Category: Company organization: Northeast Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Wang Fenghua Date: 2020-09- 14

Summary of report:

Jialin Pharmaceutical has outstanding brand advantages, focusing on the research, development, production and sales of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drugs. Dezhan Health holds 0/00% equity of Jialin Pharmaceutical/KLOC, and the company's main business income is mainly contributed by Jialin Pharmaceutical. Jialin Pharmaceutical has been in the leading position of domestic drugs in the market for regulating/lowering blood lipid for many years, and its product quality, brand appeal, technical level and production technology are all at the advanced level in the market. The company's flagship product "A Le" has been rooted in the hypolipidemic market for many years, with high quality, stable drug users and obvious brand advantages. The company expands its sales in the non-bulk purchasing market, and its performance is expected to return to the high growth channel.

By the first half of 2020, Dezhan Health has completed the acquisition of 70% equity of Beijing Yangtze River Vein and officially entered the field of disinfection technology products. The Yangtze River mainly focuses on high-tech innovation in disinfection products, which is sold to hospitals and retailers. Its disinfection products covers more than 7,000 hospitals nationwide, and 64.5% of the top three hospitals use the Yangtze River disinfection products. With the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic, the demand for disinfectants in hospitals, schools, railways and civil aviation has surged, and the epidemic situation is conducive to its business growth.

Aim at the industrial hemp industry chain, increase the capital of anti-tumor drug companies and comprehensively lay out the big health industry. In 20 19, Dezhan Health successively acquired 20% equity of Yunnan Suma Biotechnology Co., Ltd., established a company in cooperation with Hanma Group, laid out Hanma business, increased capital of Beijing Dongfang Lue Biomedical Technology Co., Ltd., and developed innovative drug business. Completed the acquisition of 67.0 125% equity of Hancui (Tianjin) Biotechnology Co., Ltd., 65% equity of Hanti Biomedical Group Co., Ltd. and 5 1% equity of Beijing Shouhui Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., and completed the business layout of cosmetics and polypeptide drugs. Dezhan has expanded from a single generic drug manufacturer to innovative drugs such as anti-tumor and anti-cancer pain, industrial hemp fast-moving consumer goods, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular screening, physical examination, etc., thus realizing the shift of business focus and diversified development and transformation.

Investment suggestion: The company takes "A Le" products as the leading factor, expands the non-volume procurement market and devotes itself to profit growth. Expanding into the big health industry, the profitability has been continuously enhanced. It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 2020-2022 will be 0.2 1, 0.27 and 0.32 yuan respectively. For the first time, the report gives a "buy" investment rating.

Risk warning: market and policy risks, drug bidding risks, rising production costs and new business risks.

Chongqing Beer (600 132): The asset injection plan exceeded expectations, and the new heavy beer set sail.

Category: Company Organization: Huaxi Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Kou Xing Date: 2020-09- 14

Overview of activities

The company announced the major asset purchase plan, and the specific plan is: 1) Chongqing Jianiang equity transfer: 48.58% Chongqing Jianiang equity consideration is 643 million yuan; 2) Capital increase of Chongqing Brewery: Chongqing Beer subscribes for heavy beer to be injected (consideration of 4.365 billion yuan), and Carlsberg Consulting subscribes for package A assets (consideration of 5.376 billion yuan). Upon completion, Chongqing Beer holds 565,438+0.42% equity of Chongqing Jianiang, and Carlsberg Consulting holds 48.58% equity of Chongqing Jianiang; 3) Chongqing Brewery buys package B assets:

The consideration is 65.438+79.4 million yuan, which will be paid in two installments.

Analysis and judgment:

When the plan finally landed, Chongqing Beer only needed to invest 65.438+56.6 million yuan in cash to purchase the company's major assets, and the final plan of the capital increase joint venture company was still a three-step plan disclosed in the previous period. The latest plan clarifies the pricing of all assets involved and the amount of capital required by all parties. Among them, the equity price of 48.58% of Chongqing Brewery before the injection of assets is 643 million yuan, the total price of the assets that Carlsberg plans to inject in vitro, namely package A and package B, is 765.438+0.7 billion yuan, and the business price that Chongqing Beer plans to inject is 4.365 billion yuan. The valuation level of the assets to be injected is between 65.438+00.7-65.438+065.438+0.9 times PE. Transaction * * * needs to pay 2.438 billion yuan in cash. Considering the ownership structure of Chongqing Brewery, Chongqing Beer needs to invest 65.438+56.6 million yuan, and Carlsberg Consulting needs to invest 872 million yuan, which is lower than the market expectation; At the same time, Carlsberg will be the guarantor, BNP Paribas and Standard Chartered Bank will provide loans of no more than 65.438+0.35 billion yuan to listed companies and Chongqing Wines, which will greatly reduce the investment pressure of listed companies and reduce financial expenses.

Perfect the brand and market matrix and sail the king of the western region.

After the completion of this transaction, Chongqing Brewery, a subsidiary of the listed company, will integrate Carlsberg's high-quality assets and all business units in China, and Chongqing Beer, a listed company, will reflect Carlsberg's operation and development in China. After the integration, it will effectively improve the brand and market matrix of listed companies and enhance the overall management efficiency of Carlsberg. At the same time, the brand end includes many international high-end/ultra-high-end brands such as Carlsberg, LeBao, K 1664, and other local strong brands such as Wusu, Dali and Romantic Moon, realizing full-price product coverage and complementary brand advantages. In terms of market, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Yunnan, Guangdong and East China will be added on the basis of Chongqing, Hunan and Sichuan, so as to integrate sales resources and expand the sales network.

Thickening the performance and asset scale of listed companies and enhancing their profitability will obviously enhance their performance and asset scale. In 20 19, the income and sales volume for preparing for the exam will reach/kloc-0.2 billion and 2.34 million kiloliters respectively, and the ton price will also be raised to 4,284.44 yuan, with larger performance scale and more optimized product structure. The net profit to be returned to the mother increased by 20.6% year-on-year to 792 million; In terms of profit rate, the pro forma gross profit rate and non-net profit rate in 20 19 years are 50.9% and 6.0%, respectively, which are higher than +9.2% and -6.4% of listed companies. Although the net profit rate decreased slightly, the growth rate of net profit of foreign assets was much higher than that of listed companies, and its profitability was better than that of listed companies. It is expected that the new net interest rate of listed companies will continue to be optimized after the injection. After the completion of the asset injection, the listed companies will further optimize the product structure under the guidance of Carlsberg's "Sailing 22" strategy and the promotion of brand-new brands and market portfolio, and enhance the competitiveness of heavy beer in the beer industry, especially in the middle and high-end beer field, so as to enhance profitability and achieve sustainable development.

Capital proposal

Considering the impact of asset injection, we expect the company's revenue from 2020 to 2022 to be 3.606 billion/110.50 billion/10.95 billion respectively, up by+0.7%/+206.4%/+8. The net profit returned to the mother is respectively

617/10.33/1870,000 yuan, an increase of-6.2%/+67.6%/+kloc-0/4.9%; The EPS is 1.27 yuan /2. 13 yuan /2.45 yuan respectively, which is 70/42/36 times of the current stock price. For the first coverage, give a "buy" rating.

Risk warning

The process of asset injection is less than expected, the impact of the epidemic is more than expected, the competition in the industry is intensified, and the cost of raw materials is rising.

Poly Real Estate (600048): When you meet 100 people in Qian Fan, you will strive for harmony and build a good colleague.

Category: Company Organization: Huaan Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Zou Kun/Wang Hongyan Date: 2020-09- 14.

Key points:

Equity is more important than repairing and strengthening cost control, and growth emphasizes "quantity" and "quality"

(1) Company's sales performance: 20 19 years, and the contract amount reached 461800 million yuan, up14.1%year-on-year; The contracted area was 3 1.23 million square meters, up 12.9% year-on-year. From 20 16 to 20 19, the compound growth rate of sales amount reached 30%. By the end of 2020H 1, the company's accounts received in advance and contractual liabilities were about 344.6 billion yuan, covering 1.54 times of the settlement income of real estate business in the past year. In 20 19, the operating income was 235.93 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the mother was 27.96 billion yuan, up by 2 1.3% and 47.9% respectively. In the same period, the gross profit margin was about 35.0%, and the net interest rate reached 15.9%.

(2) the "quantity" of the company's growth (a) the degree of land acquisition: since 20 17, the company has intensified its efforts to expand diversified land such as comprehensive utilization, old city reconstruction, cooperative development, merger and acquisition integration, and the newly added land reserve area/sales area reached 202% in that year. Although the growth rate in 20 18 and 20 19 has declined, the absolute volume has remained at a high level. 2020H 1 Affected by the epidemic, the company took land against the trend when the land market was cold in the first quarter, and became cautious after the land market picked up in the second quarter. The relaxation of land acquisition rhythm led to the increase of 9.84 million square meters of land reserve in the first half of the year, an increase of19% year-on-year; The corresponding expansion cost was 82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54%. (b) Scale of soil storage: By the end of 2020H 1, the area to be developed by the company is 67.27 million square meters, and the corresponding value of saleable resources is about/kloc-0.5 trillion, which can meet the development needs of the company in the next 2-3 years.

(3) Growth quality of the company: (a) Compared with (a)20 18 and 20 19, the land price decreased by 2. 1 and 5. 1 percentage point respectively, and the profit level was supported; (b) In the short term, with the increase of cooperative projects and the extension of carry-over period, the company's investment income has increased significantly; (c) In c)20 19 and 2020H 1, the interest rates of soil and reservoir (calculated by construction area) recovered to 7 1.5% and 73.0%, which were 3.8 and 5.3 percentage points higher than those of 20 18, respectively. The recovery of rights and interests is helpful to reduce the negative drag of minority shareholders' profits and losses on the net profit of returning home. To sum up, after the industry profitability is expected to enter the downward stage, the company's profitability is expected to remain at a good level.

Efficient management, smooth financing, in-place incentives, diversified expansion and four-dimensional advantages run through the whole process of operation. With the competitive advantage formed in the process of development, the company grew steadily during the rising period of the industry, and achieved steady growth even after the industry growth slowed down:

1. Efficient management and control, improving efficiency and reducing costs: the company has rich management experience and a three-level management mode of "headquarters-region-platform", with high management and control ability and development efficiency. The management rate sales of 20 19 and 2020H 1 (sales amount) are only 2.36% and 1.66%, and the management bonus is continuously released; 2. The financing advantage is outstanding, and the leverage level has room for improvement: the company relies on the dual role of the background of central enterprises and industry leaders, and its net debt ratio and financing cost are at a good level in the industry. By the end of 2020H 1, the company's net debt ratio was about 72%, and the comprehensive financing cost was reduced to 4.84%. 3. Multi-dimensional incentive training system construction: the company forms a multi-level incentive mechanism with salary system, equity incentive and follow-up investment plan as the main body, and builds a complete training system through the "grow with you" human resource training plan;

4. Diversified expansion and coordinated development of the main business: the company's business "takes real estate investment and development as the core, and comprehensive services and real estate finance as the two wings". While consolidating its main business, Poly Real Estate successfully went public in Hong Kong, enabling coordinated development.

Capital proposal

The company adheres to the strategy of "central city+urban agglomeration", with rich soil storage resources and reasonable layout. Under the dual effects of the background of central enterprises and industry leaders, the net debt ratio and financing cost are at a good level in the industry. Against the background of slowing growth rate of the industry, the company achieved steady growth in sales and performance in 20 18 and 20 19 years. In the first half of 2020, under the impact of the epidemic, the company actively took land against the trend, and the shareholding ratio gradually recovered, and the future scale increase is expected. While consolidating the main business, the "two wings" business has made great progress, and Poly Real Estate has successfully listed, empowering coordinated development. According to NAV estimation (the main project at the end of 20 19), the company's RNAV is about 20.6 yuan, which is 20% lower than the current share price. It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 2020-2022 will be 2.67, 3. 17 and 3.65 yuan/share respectively, corresponding to the current share price PE of 6.2, 5.2 and 4.5 times respectively. For the first coverage, give a "buy" rating.

Risk warning

Sales failed to meet expectations, regulatory policies tightened beyond expectations, financing costs rose, profit margins fell, and the equity ratio of new projects was low.