Present situation of China real estate industry

First, the level of real estate development in China

As a new growth point of the national economy, the real estate industry has contributed to the rapid economic growth of China. According to the statistics of relevant departments, GDP in 2003 increased by 1.3 percentage points directly and by 0.6 ~ 1.2 percentage points indirectly. In 2003, with the rapid growth of development investment, the real estate industry in China showed a good trend of booming supply and demand, basically balanced aggregate, gradually reasonable supply structure and stable price trend. The per capita living area of urban residents increased from 3.6 square meters in 1978 to1.4 square meters in 2003. From June to September, 2003, the investment in real estate development was 649.5 billion yuan, up 32.8% year-on-year, which was 1.4 percentage points higher than the increase in fixed assets investment (3 1.4%), accounting for 25 1% of fixed assets investment in the same period. The construction area of commercial housing increased by 27.8%, of which the newly started area increased by 30.4%. The area of land purchased was 230.82 million square meters, up 44.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased steadily. Land development area113.68 million square meters, up 38.9% year-on-year, which was the same as the previous two years. The completed area of commercial housing increased by 34.9%, and the sales area increased by 35.9%. The sales area increased by 1 percentage point more than that of the completed area in the same period. Compared with the trend of eight sub-indexes of "National Housing Prosperity Index" in June 5438+February 2003, the real estate market showed a pattern of 2 liters and 6 drops. Among them, the completed area, land development area, average sales price of commercial housing, land transfer income, vacant area of commercial housing and fund source classification index showed a downward trend; The sub-indices of real estate development investment and newly started area continued to rise. It can be said that the real estate market in China is generally healthy. However, it should be noted that there are still some unfavorable factors in the development of the real estate industry, which are shown in the following aspects.

Second, the main problems in the development of the real estate industry in China

(1) the waste and loss of resources. Due to the uncontrolled and disorderly development, a lot of land resources are wasted and state-owned assets are lost. During the peak period of "development zone fever" and "real estate fever" from 1992 to 1993, there were tens of thousands of development zones in China, with a planned area of 15000 square kilometers, which was equivalent to the total area of urban built-up areas in China at that time, but only about 2% of them were effectively developed and utilized.

② The number of vacant commercial housing has increased, and it is further expanding. /kloc-the vacant area of commercial housing reached 50 million square meters at the end of 1993, and then this index continued to rise, reaching 90 million square meters in 2000. By the end of 2003 1 1, the vacant area of commercial housing had exceeded 1 100 million square meters, up 6.5% year-on-year, of which the area of commercial housing vacant for more than one year was 42.2 million square meters. According to international practice, the vacancy rate of commercial housing is generally controlled at around 10%, but the vacancy rate of real estate development in China has exceeded this index. Although the leaders of the Ministry of Construction have repeatedly emphasized the digestion of vacant houses, and the number of vacant houses in many areas has also declined, overall, the number of vacant commercial houses in China has continued to rise, and it is now close to 20%.

③ Short-term behaviors in real estate development have damaged the ecological environment. One-sided pursuit of economic benefits by development units leads to high building density, high plot ratio and insufficient green space, and some real estate development and construction ignore the protection and construction of ecological environment.

④ The relationship between real estate development and financial industry has not been straightened out, and real estate development lacks a stable source of funds. The basic system of real estate finance is incomplete. Housing consumption credit in developed market economy countries generally accounts for about 70% of the total real estate credit, while consumption credit in China accounts for less than 10% of the total bank loans. Realizing sustainable development is a strategic task faced by China's housing industry.

Third, the sustainability analysis of the real estate industry in China

The core of sustainable development is "fair and reasonable distribution of resources between contemporary people and generations". Therefore, the sustainable development of the real estate industry not only means meeting the needs of contemporary people for real estate, but also means making rational use of land resources, protecting the ecological environment, and creating necessary spatial development conditions for the production and life of future generations. The sustainable development of the real estate industry should take the house, the owner and the environment as a whole, attach importance to the utilization and protection of natural resources, and strive to achieve the balance between the demand for nature and the return to nature. Its objectives include: the development of real estate industry should be coordinated with the overall development of the whole national economy and the development of local regional economy; The development of real estate industry should be coordinated with population development, environmental development and resource utilization; The development of real estate industry should not only meet the needs of contemporary society, but also consider the development space of future generations, and must not be predatory development; The development of real estate industry should make the development benefit and capital benefit better coordinated. So as to achieve the goals and requirements of sustainable utilization of land resources, stable and coordinated development of housing industry, improvement of real estate market and improvement of living environment. So as to promote the sustainable development of the real estate industry in China.

① Rational use of land resources to avoid waste. Land resources are the lifeblood of real estate development. However, land resources are limited and non-renewable. The sustainable utilization of land resources is the material basis for realizing the sustainable development of real estate industry, and it is also the basic premise for the development of real estate market and the improvement of human settlement environment. The limited land resources should be developed and utilized according to the principle of sustainability. In the process of urbanization in China, real estate development is usually the development of urban fringe. We should pay attention to protecting agricultural land in this area and prevent excessive agricultural land from becoming urban construction land. The conversion of agricultural land into non-agricultural land must conform to the provisions of land use planning, and the relevant government departments should strictly control it. For agricultural land that has become urban construction land, it is necessary to improve its utilization efficiency. Strictly implement the relevant provisions of the Urban Real Estate Management Law, that is, it is strictly forbidden to transfer land that has not been invested in development or investment has not reached a certain proportion; If there is no investment within a certain period of time, the government should recover it free of charge to fundamentally curb land speculation and bid up land prices. According to the urban planning, we should rationally allocate all kinds of land and new agricultural land in the suburbs to realize the effective allocation of land resources.

② Attach importance to environmental protection and maintain ecological balance. The development of real estate industry should be coordinated with population development, environmental development and resource utilization. The difference of ecological protection level will greatly affect the value of real estate, and the realization of real estate ecological value is the inevitable requirement of real estate sustainable development. Therefore, we must do a good job in the protection and construction of the ecological environment while developing, so that the real estate industry can become an organic part of the urban ecological economy. In the process of development, we should do a good job in the protection and construction of the ecological environment and create a beautiful and harmonious community. At the "real estate culture seminar" held by the Urban Development Committee of China Real Estate Association in Beijing Pearl River International City in September, 2003, experts and scholars have always believed that the real estate competition in the 2 1 century has gradually become a cultural competition. Under the condition of knowledge economy, cultural power plays a more lasting, extensive and far-reaching role in real estate than political power and technical power.

③ Perfecting the real estate financial system and establishing and developing the secondary market of real estate finance. For a long time, financial credit has been a key factor restricting the development of the real estate industry. The further development of the real estate industry is restricted by sources of funds, maturity mismatch and liquidity. In order to realize the sustainable development of the real estate industry, we must improve the real estate financial system, start to study the establishment of the secondary market of housing mortgage loans, realize the securitization of mortgage loans, bring the primary and secondary markets into the financial cycle as a whole, and open up the connection between the real estate market and the capital market. According to statistics, personal housing loans account for 20% of the total social loans in the world, while China only has 1.6%. In view of the current situation of insufficient effective demand in China's real estate industry, real estate financial credit should be transferred to consumer credit to realize a virtuous circle of real estate production and consumption.

(4) Accelerate institutional innovation and scientific and technological innovation. First, for a long time, China has paid too much attention to taxing incremental real estate, but neglected taxing existing real estate. Optimizing tax structure is the source of sustainable development of real estate industry. Second, the innovation of enterprises in ideas and products. We can't unilaterally pursue the environment, reduce the floor area ratio, and the per capita residential land exceeds the standard requirements. The real estate industry must carry out environmental cost accounting. Because our country implements the price policy of priceless land resources or low price and high product price, it inhibits the enthusiasm of resource reproduction activities, stimulates people's demand for land consumption, and even causes waste. Therefore, the real estate industry has changed from extensive to intensive. Third, it is the innovation of consumption concept. Influenced by traditional ideas, housing consumption often has the consciousness of gradient consumption and borrowing consumption, which leads to huge potential demand and relatively insufficient effective demand in China real estate market. Therefore, renewing the consumption concept and promoting the transformation of potential demand are effective means to ensure the sustainable development of the real estate industry. Fourth, we should pay attention to innovation in the field of market services. There are new forms and contents to realize intermediary (brokerage) and property management, and cumbersome procedures such as housing loans should be simplified, scientific and easy to operate. Fifthly, China's real estate industry is now in an era of paying equal attention to quantity and quality. As the main body of innovation, the only way out for enterprises to survive and develop is innovation.

⑤ Strengthen the supervision of the real estate market and improve the laws and regulations related to real estate. In the process of promoting the sustainable development of real estate industry, the government has two things to do. First, reduce government actions in the process of real estate development, eradicate corruption, put an end to black-box operations, strictly enforce the law, and cancel unreasonable charges. The second is to gradually improve the laws and regulations related to real estate. At present, although China has the Land Administration Law of the People's Republic of China and the Urban Real Estate Law of People's Republic of China (PRC), practice has proved that these two laws played a very good role in regulating the real estate market in the1990s. However, it should be noted that the real estate has entered a more rational development stage, and whether the purchased land can be developed within two years depends on the market situation. Some enterprises are worried about the recovery of management departments, but they invest in development regardless of market demand, turning the last round of over-granting land into a new round of over-development, which will inevitably bring adverse consequences. This requires the government to amend relevant laws and regulations as soon as possible. In addition, we must ensure the coordination of real estate laws and regulations with other laws and regulations, and enrich the content of real estate in other laws and regulations.

Four China real estate sustainable development evaluation index system

The evaluation index system of sustainable development of real estate industry is an important part of the research on sustainable development of real estate industry, which has been discussed by many experts and scholars. The evaluation index system is integrated from three aspects: people's life, economy and environment. According to the evaluation index put forward by Hu Xuefeng (2000), people's life mainly reflects the mutual promotion between income growth and population growth and the sustainable development of the real estate industry, including seven indicators, such as per capita living area, complete housing rate, living area, ratio of house price to income, growth rate of real estate employees, growth rate of bank housing consumption loans and urban population growth rate. The economic aspect reflects the coordination and mutual influence between the real estate industry and economic development, including the added value of the real estate industry, the per capita environmental protection added value of the real estate industry, the contribution rate of the total environmental protection assets of real estate enterprises, the ratio of the added value of the real estate industry to GDP, the labor productivity of environmental protection personnel of real estate enterprises, the profit rate of environmental protection expenses of real estate enterprises, the real estate price index and the repayment rate of real estate bank loans. The environment reflects the ecological benefits of the real estate industry, including six indicators, such as the housing efficiency of the whole society, the green coverage rate of real estate development quarters, the discharge of construction waste and sewage, the effective utilization rate of land, the growth rate of land development area and the growth rate of agricultural land requisition area.